Archive for November 14th, 2012

Unemployment claims and the stock market … interesting !

November 14, 2012

Not to worry, not another rant against the curious BLS reporting.

Business Insider posted an interesting analysis by GSAM Chairman Jim O’Neill, mapping the inverse of initial unemployment claims with the S&P 500.

First, it’s pretty clear that the series track closely.

Moreover, O’Neill observes:

”it’s worth noting the last time there was a severe break between the two lines was [Summer 2011], around the debt ceiling fight, a scenario which the current fiscal cliff debate harkens back to. Then the market freaked out, but mostly the economy kept on rolling.”

In other words, the economy is improving, albeit slowly, and last week’s drop was related to the election … but it’s not “Obama elected, market tanks” … it’s “Will divided government gridlock or avert the Fiscal Cliff?”

So, if the fiscal cliff gets resolved, then following O’Neill’s logic … the market goes up.

 

image

Posted in Fiscal cliff, Stock Market, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »

Advice to GOP: Let Obama have his tax rates on the wealthy with a couple of twists.

November 14, 2012

I really don’t understand why Obama and the Congress are having such a hard time resolving the “revenue” issue, i.e. raising taxes.

Make no mistake, I’m opposed to raising taxes and then wasting the money … both of which are eventually going to happen.

image

That said, here’s what I’d do to break the log jam – a tax plan that protects small businesses (GOP goal) and soaks the rich (Obama’s focus):

1) Separate business income reported on 1040s from all other income … then cap the business income portion at 25% … allow losses to offset ordinary income.

  • Note: The system is already to set-up to handle multiple income streams taxed differently – e.g. ordinary income vs. capital gains.
  • Note: There will be a rash of LPs started to game the system … but, so what? Shouldn’t amount to that much.

2) Then, since Obama is obsessed with raising rates on “millionaires & billionaires” who make more than $250k, I would add some brackets:

  • Bump anything over $250k but less than $500k from 35% to 36%
  • Bump anything over $500k by an additional 2 points to 38%
  • Bump anything over $1 million by still an additional 2 points to 40%
  • Bump anything over $2.5 million by still an additional 2 points to 42%

Bingo … Obama gets his prized punitive rate on millionaires and billionaires making more than $250K without hurting small businesses, and there’s minimal impact on the millionaires (?) making less than $1 million.

It’s as easy as that.

Again, it’s not the way I’d attack the deficit problem, but if Obama’s bound and determined to raise income tax rates, this is how I’d do it.

Note: I must admit that I’m swayed by the inevitability of the GOP losing on this issue … and by an analysis I heard about that said that the vast majority of tax payers would be impacted live in NY, CA, NJ, MD and DC … blue states that overwhelmingly support Obama’s policies … there’s a certain poetic justice to them paying the freight.

Stay tuned for posts re:how I’d really attack the problem.

* * * * *

Posted in Fiscal cliff, Taxes | 1 Comment »

Without youth vote, Obama would have lost election … oh, really?

November 14, 2012

Let’s work through this one slowly …

First, everybody knows that “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.

And,  CNBC says Economy Stinks for Many, But It’s Crushing Millennials

More specifically, CNBC reports:

  • While the continued economic slump hobbles many Americans, the downturn is crushing young people.
  • Almost half of millennials —those between 18 and 34 — think they’ll be worse off than their parents.
  • The unemployment rate for 18- to 34-year-olds for October was 10.8 percent, higher than the national unemployment rate of 7.9 percent,
  • More than half (57 percent) of young people would like to be working and earning more.
  • Among millennials, more than half (56 percent) reported annual pretax incomes below $30,000.
  • And, just half (53 percent) are working in their chosen fields.
  • Millennials voted this week with the economy on their minds: They cited unemployment (49 %) and rising prices (37 %) as the most pressing economic issues they face.
  • Voters under 30 also cited taxes and housing as important issues.

So, you might expect millennials to vote for Romney, right?

Not so fast.

= = = = =

According to US News: Without Youth Vote, Obama Would Have Lost Election

  • At 19%, Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 made up a bigger share of the electorate on Tuesday than they did in past elections.
  • And, President Obama overwhelmingly won that group compared to Mitt Romney.

What?

Are Millennials stupid, or something?

Again, not so fast.

= = = = =

According to CNN’s exit polls, Obama won 18-29 year old voters by 21 points … 59% to 38%.

But, there’s more to the story.

Romney won a slim majority of white 19 to 24 year olds … 51% to 44%.

But, Obama swamped Romney with young Blacks (91%) and young Latinos (74%).

So, the driver is more Obama’s strength with Blacks and Latinos than his strength with the youth vote.

Maybe, some white Millennials did vote the economy.

image

And, tere’s still more to the story.

= = = = =

What’s up with “Other”?

Note that 4% of the 19 to 24 year olds voted for candidates other than Romney or Obama.

My hunch is that most of those votes went to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, not Rosanne Barr.

Doing the math, 4% of the votes … of 18% of voters … equals almost .72% of the total vote.

That’s almost 1% in a 2.5% race …  a big deal, right?

Hmmm.

Posted in 2012 Campaign, poll, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

A pink car that prevents women’s wrinkles … really?

November 14, 2012

Punch line: Honda releases a new car targeted at Japanese women, boasting features that will prevent wrinkles.

* * * * *
Excerpted from psfk.com’s, “Honda’s Car For Women Prevents Wrinkles”

Honda released a new model designed especially for women, the Honda Fit ‘She’s.’

Available only in Japan, the make targets the nearly 50% of Japanese women who have decided to stay out of the work force.

The car sports a pink exterior, pink stitching on the interior, and shiny pink chrome covers on the dashboard. They have even put a heart in place of the apostrophe in “She’s” to bring the point home.

Honda-Fit-Shes-2-610x418

The first “designed for women” automobile since 1955′s Dodge  La Femme goes beyond a superficial color treatment.

With a new type of windshield said to block up to 99% of UV rays, women can drive to the grocery store confident that they are not increasing their chances of wrinkles.

With the model’s “Plasmacluster” AC system, women can pick up their children knowing that the specially-treated air is improving their skin quality as they drive.

Whether the claims are substantiated or not, the model will be sure to provoke conversation around the age-old question, “What do women want?” and open more than one can of worms for the Japanese automaker.

Edit by BJP

Posted in Autos - Travel, Mktg - Positioning | Leave a Comment »