Archive for March, 2014

MH370: My favorite conspiracy theories ….

March 31, 2014

Below is an interesting infographic from Engineering and Technology Magazine listing the array of likely causes:

  • Catastrophic structural failure
  • Bad weather
  • Engine failure
  • Hijack
  • Terror attack
  • Pilot suicide

 

image

image

Guess what?

The list doesn’t include either of my 2 favorites ….

(more…)

Should a family of 5 have to pay more at a restaurant than a family of 3?

March 28, 2014

The answer is obvious, right?

They take up more seats, require more server time, and eat more food.

Why do I ask?

Virtually all articles re: ObamaCare are saying “at least save the popular parts like allowing adult children on their parents’ policies until they are 26”.

First, the term “adult-children” gives me the creeps. But, that’s beside the point.

I don’t care if insurance companies have to carry 26 year olds on their parents’ policies, but I don’t understand why you & I have to pay for it … not the adult-children’s parents.

Now, practically all employer-sponsored  health insurance plans charge premiums in tiers: employee only, employee plus spouse, employee plus children, and employee plus spouse and children. Note: it doesn’t matter if the employee has 1 child or a dozen children … same premium.

Say what?

For example, the United Healthcare plan through Georgetown — which is probably pretty typical — charges:

image

Note that it costs  $7,346 to tack a spouse (or equivalent) — presumably an adult — onto an employee’s policy.

(more…)

Biases: The favorite-long shot bias …

March 27, 2014

In gambling and economics, there’s an observed phenomenon favorite-long shot bias.

image

Here’s how it works …

 

(more…)

Oh Swami, what’s the secret to success?

March 26, 2014

Psychology professor Angela Lee Duckworth has researched successful students, athletes and business managers.

She concludes that talent and intelligence will get you only so far.

The characteristic that separates successful people from the also-rans is, in a word, grit”.

Grit is tenacious spirit that keeps certain people dedicated to their goal (whether it involves their studies, their projects, their clients, or something else) for the long haul, determined to accomplish what they set out to do.

Grit is working with intensity and  stamina over long periods of time to incrementally chip away at some goal.

Prof. Duckworth says schools & companies should recruit people who are not only smart, but also demonstrate “true grit”.

Maybe she’s onto something.

======

Here’s a TED talk in which Prof. Duckworth summarizes her findings.

 

If you want more here’s is a link to a longer talk Prof. Duckworth gave recently.

(more…)

Biases: The “halo effect” … rock on, sister!

March 25, 2014

I’ll explain the picture later, but first, the back story.

A couple of interesting dots got connected last week.

 

image

First, I started watching The Voice.

I liked the talent and the bantering among the coaches, but wondered why they used the turning chairs gimmick.  You know, judges can’t see the the performers, they can just hear them.

Became apparent when Usher turned his chair and was surprised to see that the high-pitched soul singer was a big white guy.

Hmmm.

=====

Second, for the course I’m currently teaching, I’ve been reading a book called The Art of Thinking Clearly — a series of short essays on cognitive biases – those sneaky psychological effects that impair our decision-making.

(more…)

Re: MH370 … as Hillary would say “What difference does it make?”

March 24, 2014

We’re going into our 3rd week of of wall-to-wall news coverage of the the disappearance of the Malaysian 777.

Yesterday, I saw a “news alert” announcing that the cabin radio transcripts revealed nothing … English translation: no news to report.

And, I got a peak of a Chinese satellite photo of a “possible object” floating around  in the Indian Ocean.

image

Question: Any idea how much garbage is floating around in the oceans?

Answer: Tons.

I understand that news outlets are keeping the real-time stream of newsless news up because there’s a market for it — their audiences are eating it up

Except for the passengers friends and families, I don’t get it.

Here’s what has me most perplexed ….

(more…)

Banned substance: Red ink is,well, threatening …

March 21, 2014

I once worked for a CEO who wouldn’t stand for lemon in his water or red ink.

That is, both the red ink on a financial statement and red ink on a document.

Apparently, he was onto something with the latter.

image

In the UK, hundreds of schools have banned their teachers from marking in red ink.

Here’s why …

(more…)

Nums: 94% of profs rate themselves above average … but, don’t we all?

March 20, 2014

According to LiveScience.com

Since psychological studies first began, people have given themselves top marks for most positive traits.

While most people do well at assessing others, they are wildly positive about their own abilities.

The phenomenon is known as illusory superiority.

image

Illusory superiority is everywhere

  • In studies, most people overestimate their IQ. For instance, in a classic 1977 study, 94 percent of professors rated themselves above their peer group average.
  • In another study, 32 percent of the employees of a software company said they performed in the top 5%.
  • Drivers consistently rate themselves as better than average — even when a test of their hazard perception reveals them to be below par.

Ironically, the most incompetent are also the most likely to overestimate their skills, while the ace performers are more likely to underrate themselves.

Psychologists say the illusory superiority happens for several reasons:

  • people don’t usually get honest feedback from others others (who are too polite to say what they really think)
  • incompetent people lack the skills to assess their abilities accurately
  • most positive traits — like being a good driver — are so vaguely defined that there’s plenty of wiggle room
  • self-delusions can actually protect people’s mental health serving as a protective mechanism that shields self-esteem

The remedy for illusory superiority ?

Since people are generally more accurate in assessing other people (than assessing themselves), get — and take to heart — constructive criticism from others.

Yeah, right.

Source: Why We’re All Above Average

* * * * *
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma              >> Latest Posts

Gotcha: “I paid more, so it must be better …”

March 19, 2014

One of my favorite sports’ movie scenes is from “Major League”

Newly hired manager Lou Brown is chatting with the Indians’ general manager.

One of the team’s players –Roger Dorn – pulls up in a fancy ride, hops out and unloads his golf clubs.

Brown says to the GM: “I thought you didn’t have any high-priced talent.”

The GM shoots back: “Forget about Dorn, he’s just high priced.”

image

Lou Brown almost fell for a common trap …

Sometimes people do perceive that higher priced products are better – even when they’re not.

They’re subconsciously using price as a “quality cue”.

Here’s some research that supports the dynamic …

(more…)

Should I still be teaching Michael Porter’s strategy stuff?

March 18, 2014

OK, I was asleep at the switch on this one … completely missed that Monitor – the consulting outfit started by strategy guru Michael Porter – went bankrupt last year and got acquired by Deloitte.

How ironic … an uber-strategist’s own company goes belly up.

image

Here’s the scoop …

(more…)

WSJ: “Rot in the job numbers” … yeah, but a week late.

March 17, 2014

This morning, the WSJ published an editorial titled “The Hidden Rot in the Jobs Numbers ” by Prof. Edward  Lazear, who was chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2006-09, is a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business and a fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Strong credentials, right?

The punch line: “Hours worked are declining, resulting in the equivalent of a net loss of 100,000 jobs since September.”

No kidding, Prof. Lazear?

Loyal HomaFiles readers are already aware of that … assuming that they read last Monday’s post: Smokin’: Employment growth exceeds expectations … oh, really?

Gotta crow a bit on this one … beat the WSJ by a week.

Here’s what we said last Monday:

=====

Smokin’: Employment growth exceeds expectations … oh, really?

The headlines are that 175,000 jobs were added in February.

Proof positive that the Obama economy is kicking in.

image

======

Hate to rain on the parade, but ….

(more…)

Who’s the stronger leader – Putin or Obama ?

March 14, 2014

YouGov polled Americans on that very question. asking folks to to rate Obama and Putin – whether they are strong or weak leaders.

How would you have rated each of them: very strong, somewhat strong, somewhat weak, or very weak?

 

image

And the survey said …

(more…)

Nums: Obama’s bad day … and, about the Tea Party

March 13, 2014

Holy smokes.

First, a dude from Hangover asks him: “What’s it like to be the last black President?”

Then, some dullard named Jolly rides the anti-ObamaCare train to victory in a Florida Congressional election.

And, finally, more bad polling from WSJ / NBC  (which I assume offset one another re: political bias)

The top line: Approval slides to 41% … an all-time low.

 

image

Here are some nuggets that I found interesting in the polls details ..

(more…)

In praise of tough teachers …

March 12, 2014

My students are likely to cringe at this post which kinda legitimizes my teaching style.

Uh-oh …

=====

According to a recent WSJ article:

The latest findings in fields from music to math to medicine lead to a single, startling conclusion: It’s time to revive old-fashioned education.

Not just traditional but old-fashioned in the sense that so many of us knew as kids, with strict discipline and unyielding demands.

Why?

Because here’s the thing: It works.

image

Of course, that conclusion flies in the face of the kinder, gentler philosophy that has dominated American education over the past few decades.

The conventional wisdom holds that teachers are supposed to tease knowledge out of students, rather than pound it into their heads.

Projects and collaborative learning are applauded; traditional methods like lecturing and memorization — derided as “drill and kill” — are frowned upon, dismissed as a surefire way to suck young minds dry of creativity and motivation.

But the conventional wisdom is wrong.

And the following eight principles explain why …

(more…)

Maybe, the best commercial ever … n’est-ce pas?

March 11, 2014

Have you seen the new Cadillac commercial?

At several levels, I think it’s a great ad.

At a broad level, it’s creating an incredible level of buzz.

As AdAge puts it:

Fans on the political right see . . . an unapologetic ode to American values.

Critics on the political left see it as Ugly American chest thumping at its worst.

What’s got folks so stirred up?

Here’s the ad’s punch line:

“We’re crazy, driven, hard-working believers. . . . . You work hard. You create your own luck.

And you’ve gotta believe anything is possible.

As for all the stuff?

That’s the upside of only taking two weeks off in August, n’est ce pas?”

Crass ugly American materialism … or the American Dream?

Watch the commercial and draw your own conclusion.

One of my favorite reactions was from a “Manhattan brand consultant” who quipped:

The spot is well-done but philosophically odious.

The surprising thing strategically is that they would choose to play to their base instead of trying to expand it.

Say, what?

First, what’s odious about reaping some benefits from hard work ?

Sure, it’s ironic that the commercial is coming from Government Motors … but should the company be touting the progressive mantra “liberation from work” ?

I don’t think so.

Re: “playing to the base” …

I thought Cadillac’s base was NFL-NBA players and urban-based chemical distributors.

Who else rolls in Sclades ?

Note: I probably shouldn’t generalize from personal experience, but an NFL player lives a mile or two from our house.  During the season, there are always 12 or more black Escalades parked in his circular drive.  Place looks like a Caddy showroom.

They are trying to “expand the base”.

The Caddy ad caught my attention ….

…. just like C.C. Catch did in the 80s with her hit “In the Backside of Your Cadillac”

I may go car shopping this evening …

Smokin’: Employment growth exceeds expectations … oh, really?

March 10, 2014

The headlines last Friday were that 175,000 jobs were added in February.

Proof positive that the Obama economy is kicking in.

image

======

Hate to rain on the parade, but ….

(more…)

Gotcha: Man, that was a fast yellow light …

March 7, 2014

Might not be your imagination.

In some locales, city-fathers are shortening the duration of yellow caution lights – you know, going from green to red.

Why?

Simple.  To increase the odds that you get ticketed by a red light “safety” camera.

image

According to a News 10 TV report,  in Tampa, the yellow light duration was reduced by a fraction of a second at intersections with red light cameras.

The result: red light tickets and their accompanying revenue more than doubled.

Red light cameras generated more than $100 million in revenue last year in approximately 70 Florida communities,

What’s the impact on traffic safety?

(more…)

Don’t faint: I agree with ObamaCare on this one …

March 6, 2014

For the record, I think that ObamaCare is an expensive, amateurish travesty that should be repealed and rebuilt from the ground up by professionals.  Keep the high risk pools for pre-exiting conditions, keep the subsidies for the poor … but lose the  micro-narrow provider networks and the junk mandated into policies (e.g. my favorite: universally free birth control for law schoolers).

And, I think that Dr. Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel – Rahm’s brother and one of the ObamaCare architects – is a complete butt.

image

That said, I was on Zeke’s side when he sparred with O’Reilly this week …

(more…)

Taxes: The only thing to love about the AMT …

March 5, 2014

Just finished this year’s taxes.

One interesting twist ….

In 2012, like a lot of folks, I sold a bunch of stocks to beat Obama’s hike in the capital gains tax …  from 15% to 23.8% (including the 3.8% ObamaCare surcharge)

As a result, my state tax bill paid in 2013 was higher than usual … Virginia’s share of the capital gains.

At first I was delighted this year.

Why?

Because, on my Federal return,  I could deduct the higher-than-normal taxes that I paid to Virginia.

Unfortunately, the thrill was short-lived.

I’d forgotten about the AMT … you know, the Alternative Minimum Tax.

I’d forgotten, but TurboTax hadn’t.

Bottom line: My VA tax deduction got wiped away by the AMT calculation.

Like many folks, I had internalized that state income taxes are annoying, but no big deal since they get written off at the Federal level.

Not so if you’re among the millions of Americans who get snared in the AMT trap.

Oh, well.

At least there is one small delight I get from the AMT …

(more…)

Nums: The Obama SOTU bounce fades …

March 4, 2014

Mass media was making a big deal when the President’s approval scores bounced from the low 40s to the mid-40s after the SOTU address.

Premature victory dance?

Today;s Gallup daily tracking poll put Obama right back at the presidential Mendoza line: 40%.

 

image
Source: Gallup

Results are consistent with the other major polls tracked by RealClearPolitics …

(more…)

Flashback: Obama schools Romney that “Russia isn’t a threat”

March 3, 2014

Remember the 2012 Presidential debates?

A key moment was when President Obama ridiculed Gov. Romney’s knowledge of foreign affairs.

Given recent events in the Ukraine, the clip is a classic …  try to stay calm when you.watch it

=====

Here’s more that’ll make make you scream …

(more…)