Archive for April, 2016
April 29, 2016
According to LiveScience.com …
Since psychological studies first began, people have given themselves top marks for most positive traits.
While most people do well at assessing others, they are wildly positive about their own abilities.
The phenomenon is known as illusory superiority.
Illusory superiority is everywhere
- In studies, most people overestimate their IQ. For instance, in a classic 1977 study, 94 percent of professors rated themselves above their peer group average.
- In another study, 32 percent of the employees of a software company said they performed in the top 5%.
- Drivers consistently rate themselves as better than average — even when a test of their hazard perception reveals them to be below par.
Ironically, the most incompetent are also the most likely to overestimate their skills, while the ace performers are more likely to underrate themselves.
Psychologists say the illusory superiority happens for several reasons:
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Posted in Academics - Research, Behavioral Economics, Education - Academics, Psychology | 1 Comment »
April 28, 2016
Let’s connect a couple of dots today.
Noticed the headline: “Millennials overtake Baby Boomers as America’s largest generation.”
That’s right, Millennials (ages 18 to 34) have surpassed Baby Boomers (ages 51 to 69) as the nation’s largest living generation, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Baby Boomer generation peaked at 78.8 million in 1999.
The Millennial generation – which now numbers 83.1 million — continues to grow as young immigrants expand its ranks.
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So, what’s that demographic shift have to do with capitalism?
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Posted in baby boomers, Demograhics, Millennials | 1 Comment »
April 27, 2016
Few things are more attractive than those that are unavailable or in scarce supply.
Tell someone that they can’t have something, and they will be much more likely to desire it.
Here’s the way at least one used car salesman plays the scarcity game …
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Posted in Behavioral Economics | Leave a Comment »
April 26, 2016
One of my favorite sports’ movie scenes is from “Major League”
Newly hired manager Lou Brown is chatting with the Indians’ general manager.
One of the team’s players –Roger Dorn – pulls up in a fancy ride, hops out and unloads his golf clubs.
Brown says to the GM: “I thought you didn’t have any high-priced talent.”
The GM shoots back: “Forget about Dorn, he’s just high priced.”
Lou Brown almost fell for a common trap …
Sometimes people do perceive that higher priced products are better – even when they’re not.
They’re subconsciously using price as a “quality cue”.
Here’s some research that supports the dynamic …
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Posted in Behavioral Economics, Mktg - Pricing, Quality - Quality Cues | Leave a Comment »
April 22, 2016
Adapted from the Washington Post WonkBlog:
The below chart represents a network of the entire population of a fictional and very small town.
Each circle represents a person. Two people who know each other are connected by a line. People who are not connected by a line have never met.
The day’s political issue: whether baseball caps are fashionable. Each circle is colored to indicate that person’s stance on the issue. Blue circles think caps are fashionable. Orange circles think that caps are not fashionable. (On this issue, everyone has an opinion.)
The town will be voting on whether to officially consider baseball caps fashionable.
A polling firm recently asked whether each person thought that the town would vote to deem baseball caps fashionable.
Assume each person polled based their prediction solely on how the majority of people they know felt about baseball caps (excluding his or her own view).
Did the polling firm find the measure was expected to pass or fail?
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Majority Illusion, Voting Patterns | Leave a Comment »
April 21, 2016
According to Chip & Dan Heath in Rotman Management article “The 4 Villains of Decision Making” …
“Research in Psychology over the last 40 years has identified a broad set of biases in our thinking that doom our decision making. If we aspire to make better choices, we must learn how these biases work and how to fight them.”
According to the Heath Brothers – academics & popular authors – there are 4 decision making villains that have to be confronted
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
April 20, 2016
Dan Lovallo, a professor and decision-making researcher says, “Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.”
What’s this “confirmation bias” that Lovello is talking about?
No surprise, people tend to seek out information that supports their existing beliefs.
You know, liberals watch MSNBC, read the NY Times listen to BBC podcasts; conservatives watch FOX, read the WSJ and listen to Rush.
Behavioral psychologists call the he dynamic “confirmation bias”.
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In socio-politics, the confirmation bias tends to harden polarized positions. People just gather debate fodder rather than probing both sides of issues.
In the realm of decision making, confirmation bias has a dysfunctional effect: it leads to bad decisions.
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Decision Making, Heath, Chip & Dan | Leave a Comment »
April 19, 2016
In his book Brain Rules, author John Medina reports on empirical observations of student’s classroom attentiveness.
What did he find?
Student’s attention level “naturally” takes a dive approximately 10 minutes into a class session.
This is “natural occurrence” that is linked, in part to body chemistry … and to “mental habits” developed by the current generation of web and channel surfers.
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OK, that’s the problem … what’s the solution?
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Posted in Classroom - teaching, Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
April 18, 2016
Infographic from CNBC cuts to the chase re: the “money comes in, money goes out.”
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More interesting: What’s up with Mitt Romney’s infamous 47%?
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Posted in Taxes | Leave a Comment »
April 15, 2016
Since we’re heading down the home stretch to Monday’s filing deadline …
According to Pew Research:
Overall, 33% of Americans say they do their own taxes while 56% say someone else prepares their taxes.
- Note 1: 11% don’t know who does their taxes or were befuddled by the question
- Note 2: The folks in the 11% get to vote in Presidential elections (ouch!)
A majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes 1 in 4 say they hate doing them.
Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes:
About a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes.
Here are some details re: the “likers” and lovers …
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Tags:Pew Research
Posted in Polls & Surveys, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
April 14, 2016
You bet they do …
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Prof Robert Kaplan of San Diego State University conducted an experiment:
Faculty subjects were asked to grade an essay written by a student.
A photograph of the student was attached to the essay.
The grade given for the essay correlated strongly with a subjective attractiveness scale evaluated by other judges.
What is interesting is that all the subjects received the exact same essay, and the photograph attached to it was randomly assigned.
Bottom line: physical attractiveness causes graders to give essay writers better scores on their essays.
Here’s what’s going on …
(more…)
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Posted in Cognitive biases, Hubbard, Douglas "Measure Anything" | Leave a Comment »
April 13, 2016
In yesterday’s post, I again used the expression “going to hell in a handbasket” …. and got a couple of emails re: its origin and meaning.
So, today we’re reprising a post from the archives …
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This week, a poll finally asked a question that really cuts to the chase:
Which better describes how you feel about the way things are going in the world these days?
- a) Things are going to hell in a handbasket
- b) Everything will be alright
- c) Don’t know
Started me wondering:
What’s up with a goofy idiom like “going to hell in a handbasket”?
(more…)
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Posted in Idioms, Language - Slang, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
April 11, 2016
A recently reported study of 1,015 LinkedIn users “sought insights into how organizations attract, engage, motivate as well as retain workers and build the kind of workplace that employees promote.”
The headline conclusion: “About half of workers wouldn’t recommend their organization to a friend or family member searching for a job.”
What’s their beef?
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Posted in Employee engagement, Employee satisfaction, Jobs - Unemployment, Purpose, Workplace | Leave a Comment »
April 7, 2016
Yep, grade inflation is alive and well.
The Washington Post reported findings from a 70-year retrospective analysis of college grades.
The central conclusion:
“Across the country, wherever and whatever they study, mediocre students are increasingly likely to receive supposedly superlative grades.”
In other words, these days, A is the new “average”.
Now, almost half of all grades given are A’s … triple the percentage from a few decades ago.
C’s – the old “average” – is dying a slow, steady death … and, there’s a higher likelihood of a student being struck by lightning than getting hit with an F.
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Here are some explanatory snippets and my take …
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Posted in Academics - Research, Careers & Interviewing, Grades - Grade Inflation, Schools | 1 Comment »
April 6, 2016
Last week President Obama hosted a nuclear containment summit and Candidate Trump expressed support for letting countries like Japan develop nuclear weapons.
In casual conversations, I opined that the nuclear gaffe (if it was one), would hurt Trump because the average American voter has no idea which countries do and do not have nuclear weapons now.
I think that I and my fellow discussants are usually “in the know” on current political topics.
Still, we traded comments and questions like:
- “I was surprised that Japan didn’t have nukes”
- “Do France or the UK have them?”
- “What about Israel?”
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You get the point.
Now it’s your turn.
No Googling or peeking !
I’ll even state the question to give you a hint:
What 9 countries currently have nuclear weapons?
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Posted in Nuclear weapons - nukes | 2 Comments »
April 5, 2016
Given that both Donald & Hillary are polling unfavorable among women, it didn’t surprise me that Chris Matthews introduced abortion into the 2016 election … by drilling Trump on the topic.
He probably expected Donald to give an idiotic answer (mission accomplished!) … and to elevate the issue so that Hillary would have reason to burnish her pro-abortion bona fides when she appeared on sister network NBC’s Meet the Press.
I wasn’t surprised to see Donald trip on his schlong (<= his word not mine), but was surprised that Hillary countered with a gaffe of her own.
In case you missed Hillary on Meet the Press …
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Posted in 2016 Presidential Election, gaffes | Leave a Comment »
April 4, 2016
GREAT article in the WSJ from our own John Hasnas – MSB Professor of Policy & Ethics: The One Kind of Diversity Colleges Avoid
His central point: When recruiting faculty, universities seek diversity by gender, race and nationality … but, not ideology.
In many instances, conservatives and libertarians need not apply.
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That conclusion probably doesn’t surprise many of you who already see the elephant in the middle of the room.
But, Prof. Hasnas provides some texture and “inside scoop”
Here are a couple of highlight snippets from the article … (more…)
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Posted in Diversity, Education - Academics, Faculty Lounge, University policies | 2 Comments »
The Homa Files 