This is the model on which the Coronavirus Task Force has most relied.
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According to the WSJ and other sources:
White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx said its assessment of how the pandemic would unfold closely mirrors the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the so-called Murray Model.
An early-on Murray Model’s ‘most likely’ forecast was 83,967 COVID-related deaths during this epidemic cycle … with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 38,242 to 162,106.
Underlying that forecast, the Murray Model estimates that Daily New Deaths (DNDs — the number that we’ve been tracking) will peak at about 2,200 in mid to late April.
Here are some of the key components and assumptions in the Murray Model…
The Homa Files 