Archive for March 2nd, 2020

Bloomberg’s possible path to the Oval Office…

March 2, 2020

Short answer: via  a 3rd party run.
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Many pundits are speculating that Bloomberg’s only chance of winning the White House is to buy-off a sufficient number of “super delegates” at a brokered Democratic Convention.

I disagree.

In fact, if that were to happen,  I think that Trump would prevail in a head-to-head match-up.

My take: Sanders’ supporters will be irate if Bernie enters the convention with a statistically significant plurality of delegates but is denied the nomination because of the Dems’ backroom “Stop Bernie” dealing.

Bernie’s Bros won’t shift their passionate support to Mini Mike … they’ll either stay home or cast Trump votes in protest.

So, the way I see it,  Bloomberg has only one long-shot path to the White House: run as an independent.

It’s a wild scenario, but here’s my logic…

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First, I expect that Bernie will be the Dems’ nominee for president.

A reluctant Dem establishment will be left with no choice.

My bet: Head-to-head, Trump the capitalist would beat Sanders the socialist.

But …

What if Bloomberg – after failing to secure the Dem nomination – declares as a 3rd party candidate?

No chance that Bloomberg would beat Trump head-to-head …. and no chance that he’d win 270 electoral votes in a 3-way contest.

But …

What if Bloomberg were to win a state or two (think: New York, New Jersey) … just enough to stop Trump (and Sanders) short of 270?

Well, then the election gets tossed to the Congress.

In a nutshell: Congress gets to elect the President from among the top 3 candidates (based on their earned electoral votes).

Each state’s delegation gets one vote.

Assume that the Dems had the majority of “members” in a majority of state delegations.

Note: While the Dems currently hold a majority in Congress, the GOP currently has a majority of state delegations.

If all the Dem’s state delegations cast “establishment” votes instead of “socialism” votes … i.e. they vote Bloomberg over Sanders … then Bloomberg is elected … even though he won a minimal number of electoral votes in the general election.

Of course, all hell would break loose … and American democracy would never be the same … but Bloomberg would be the President-elect.

A remote happening … but possible.

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