Archive for March 21st, 2020

Hydroxychloroquine: NY to start “clinical test” …

March 21, 2020

Kudos to Cuomo for nudging the Feds
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You’ve probably heard some chatter about  Hydroxychloroquine.

Hydroxychloroquine is a decades old anti-malaria drug that some researchers  are advocating for “repurposing” to attack COVID-19.

Here’s what you need to know

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How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

March 21, 2020

Here’s the COVID-19 number that I’m watching.
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Cutting to the chase, I’ve concluded that the most reliable number being reported is the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

According to Worldometers – the best data aggregation site that I’ve found so far – there have been 275 COVID-19 related deaths in the U.S. so far.

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That chart looks exponentially ominous … but remember that we’re looking at relatively small numbers.

Note: Over 60% of the fatalities are clustered in 3 states WA, NY, CA — with half of those in Washington.

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So, I think it’s more useful to look at “Daily New Deaths” …. if that number keeps going up then, by definition, we haven’t turned the corner.

When that number starts trending down then, by definition, we have turned the corner.

Here’s what Worldometers is reporting on “Daily New Deaths” for the past 3 days: 41, 57, 49.

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Don’t get too excited about yesterday’s drop in fatalities … again, keep in mind that we’re dealing with small numbers.

In the unlikely case that the number stays around 50, then it’s time to celebrate.

Keep in mind that during flu season, we rack up about 250 flu-related deaths per day.

Bottom line: If you want to know if we’re starting to turn the corner, keep your eye on the number of COVID-19 related “Daily New Deaths”.

Choose the level of aggregation based on your specific interest … world, nation or state.

Note: I’ll be focusing on the U.S. national number … and the national number less the 3 state hot spots.

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Why “Daily New Deaths”?

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