Archive for March 31st, 2020

What you need to know about the IHME Model…

March 31, 2020

This is the model on which the Coronavirus Task Force has most relied.


According to the WSJ and other sources:

White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx said its assessment of how the pandemic would unfold closely mirrors the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the so-called Murray Model.

An early-on Murray Model’s ‘most likely’ forecast was 83,967 COVID-related deaths during this epidemic cycle … with the 95% confidence interval ranging from  38,242 to 162,106.


Underlying that forecast, the Murray Model estimates that Daily New Deaths (DNDs — the number that we’ve been tracking) will  peak at about 2,200 in mid to late April.


Here are some of the key components and assumptions in the Murray Model…


March 31: COVID Tracker

March 31, 2020

Total Deaths to Date Worldometer

3,173 Yesterday (March 30)
2,592  March 29
2,229  March 28
1,704  March 27
1.301  March 26
1.036  March 25
  784  March 24

Daily New Deaths Worldometer

581  Yesterday (March 30)
363   March 29)
525    March 28
403    March 27
268    March 26
252    March 25
225    March 24

Daily New Deaths UP

  • Prior day appears to be an outlier … probably the result of missed reporting deadlines


State-by-State Data