Archive for January 11th, 2021

Before you jump on the “inciting a riot” bandwagon …

January 11, 2021

Here is 3 pieces of “must read, must view” background material.
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OK, let’s agree that breaching the Capitol was illegal and that the associated deaths were both tragic &  inexcusable (including the female AF vet who was shot dead).

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Now, Pelosi-led Dems are intent on impeaching Trump.

Since there’s only a week to go in his presidency, her motivation must be either (a) dance on his grave, or (3) preclude his running in 2024, or both.

Emotions are still running high, so I encourage everybody to step back, take a deep breath and do 3 things …

1) Watch the video of Trump’s speech or, better yet, read the transcript.

My take: While spending 90% of the time recounting his election grievances, Trump did imply that there was hope for Congress to reverse the election and did encourage people to peacefully march to the Capitol.

We have come to demand that Congress do the right thing and only count the electors who have been lawfully slated, lawfully slated.

I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.

Today we will see whether Republicans stand strong for integrity of our elections, but whether or not they stand strong for our country, our country.

At no point in the speech did Trump come even remotely close to suggesting any sort of violence … or of breaching the Capitol building.

Note: More relevant snippets from the speech are at the end of this post.

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2) Watch this short video that shows the Capitol Police opening the doors to the Capitol building and allowing the protesters to enter.

This doesn’t diminish that some protesters did illegally enter through a broken window and cause criminal havoc … but, it does raise questions about the police reaction and whether the bulk of the protesters were in the building illegally or reeking seriously disruptive havoc.

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3) Read Jonathan Turley’s analysis: How A Snap Impeachment Could Shatter Our Constitutional Balance

Turley’s Summary:

Like many, I condemned Trump’s speech as it was still being given, calling it reckless and wrong.

However, Trump’s speech does not meet the definition of incitement under the U.S. criminal code.

Despite widespread, justified condemnation of his words, Trump never actually called for violence or a riot.

Rather, he urged his supporters to march on the Capitol to express opposition to the certification of electoral votes and to support the challenges being made by some members of Congress.

He expressly told his followers “to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”

Indeed, it would be considered protected speech by the Supreme Court.

The point of this column is to call for greater caution and deliberation before we take this step to consider the basis and implications of this impeachment.

There are real dangers to any opportunistic or hurried use of this option.

There could be evidence to support impeachment on the proposed incitement article but it would have to be found before or after the speech to show an intent to spark rioting or to allow it to continue.

Such evidence would need to be found  through a traditional impeachment inquiry.

Turley’s recommendation:

“There is also the alternative of a joint and bipartisan condemnation of both houses, which would be both justified and unassailable.”

I side with Prof. Turley on this one.

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Here are relevant snippets from the transcript of Trump’s speech … with timestamped references back to the full transcript.

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Stock Market: Annie may have nailed it!

January 11, 2021

In a post last week — in my post-election analysis — I cited the investment advice of Little Orphan Annie:

The sun will come out tomorrow.

Bet your bottom dollar, that tomorrow there’ll be sun!

But , it was overcast “tomorrow” (i.e. the day after the election) and I was nervous because JP Morgan had been forecasting a 25% market drop if there’s a Blue Wave.

So, I asked, who to believe Annie or JP Morgan?

Well, so far, it looks like Annie nailed it.

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After a momentary dip, the S&P has been up over 3% … and all major indices have been at or near historic eyes.

I hope Annie’s advice holds in long-run.
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So, why is the market going up?

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Jan. 11: COVID Data Dashboard

January 11, 2021

Vaccinations: U.S. Total
Doses Distributed    22.1 MM
Doses Inoculated      6.9 MM
% Pop Vaxed        2.02 %
Current Day Shots    769 K

Source: CDC   Updated: 1/8/2021
Note: No weekend reporting
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383,236 Deaths-to-Date

1,753 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,474 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 3,309     (peak 3,309 Jan. 10)

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Confirmed Cases
205,550 New Cases
> 7-day average  237,360

Currently Hospitalized
130,777
 Current level
> 7-day average 130,350