Archive for January 18th, 2021

COVID VAX: What’s up?

January 18, 2021

Now that I’m officially “qualified” to get the COVID-vaccine, I’m a lot more interested in the details.

And, the more I dig deep, the more confused I get.

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Let’s start with the Biden Plan which. I guess, kicks off officially tomorrow.

I commend Biden for elevating the priority of “shots in arms” … and buy-in to ideas like mass distribution sites, community clinics, mobile distribution sites, accelerated retail distribution (drug stores, grocery chains, Costco).

I especially like the nudge that’s legitimizing over 65ers (i.e. me) for vaccinations.

But…

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What’s the goal?

I like the specific goal of “100 million in 100 days”, but gotta ask: 100 million what?

Reading the recaps of weekend interviews this weekend, Biden’s spokespeople seem to be a bit squishy on whether the target is 100 doses or 100 people fully vaccinated (i.e. having gotten both doses).

This may sound like nit-picky semantics, but it’s a big difference.

If it’s 100 million doses, it’s a lay-up.

Last week, we were hovering around 1 million shots per der day … best day was over 1 million; 7-day average was 775k per day.

Threshold reached, trend positive … especially, in marketing-speak,  with a wider target market and and broader retail distribution.

Simple math: 1 million doses per day times 100 days equals, drum roll, 100 million “shots in arms”.

But having 100 million people fully vaccinated (i.e. both doses) is a long 3-point shot (from about mid-court).

My back-of-envelope estimate is that 100 million doses in 100 days would translate to about 70 million people fully vaccinated (since many folks will be taking 2 bits of the apple).

That’s a big difference … but still a commendable goal (especially if my wife & I are among the 70 million!).

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What about vaccine supply?

This is the big weekend surprise…

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Jan. 18: COVID Data Dashboard

January 18, 2021

Vaccinations: U.S. Total
Doses Distributed    31.2 MM
Doses Inoculated    12.3 MM
% Pop Vaxed         3.71 %
Current Day Shots   1.13 MM
7-day average          777 K

Source: CDC   Updated: 1/15/2021
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407,151 Deaths-to-Date

1,685 Daily New Deaths  (peak 4,100 Jan. 12)
> 7-day average 3,402      (peak 3,446 Jan. 14)

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Confirmed Cases
150,595 New Cases
> 7-day average  207,432

Currently Hospitalized
127,235
 Current level
> 7-day average 129,671