Archive for December, 2020

Happy New Year!

December 31, 2020

Let’s all say good riddance to 2020, count our blessings
and do our part to make 2021 a joyous year.

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Dec. 30: GA Senate Polls & Odds

December 31, 2020

RCP Poll-of-Polls

Ossoff leading by 1 point.

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Warnock leading by 2 points
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PredictIt Betting Market

Betting markets indicating 63-37 chance that at least one of the GOP candidates will win …. down from 73-29 two weeks ago

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

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Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

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Dec. 31: COVID Data Dashboard

December 31, 2020

350,778 Deaths-to-Date

3,880 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,372      (peak 2,805 Dec. 23)

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Confirmed Cases
234,550 New Cases
> 7-day average  170,817

Currently Hospitalized
125,220
 Current level
> 7-day average 120,902

Most Admired: Trump edges Obama … trounces Biden

December 30, 2020

Gallup has released its annual “Admired Man” results…

What man that you have heard or read about, living today in any part of the world, do you admire most?

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Trump edges Obama 18% to 15% … and triples Biden’s 6%.

Hmmm.

Of course, left-leaners minimize the results:

  • Gallup mentions that incumbent presidents often top the list
  • Some pundits point out that Dems split votes between Obama & Biden … and, their sum edges Trump 21% to 18%

Note that political scientist Anthony Fauci edged out Pope Francis for 4th place.

Double hmmm.

Dec. 30: COVID Data Dashboard

December 30, 2020

346,579 Deaths-to-Date

3,398 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,314      (peak 2,805 Dec. 23)

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Confirmed Cases
194,860 New Cases
> 7-day average  170,289

Currently Hospitalized
124,876
 Current level
> 7-day average 120,078

Still more on the COVID vaccines’ 95% effectiveness rate…

December 29, 2020

WHO says “no evidence that vaccines prevent people from getting infected”
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True, but no reason to go anti-vax.

Bias alert: I’m pro-vax and plan to get vaccinated as soon as I can.

In a prior post, we parsed the Pfizer study results … honing in on one of the study’s limitations: it only counted the number of participants who exhibited at least one COVID symptom.

Said differently, the study was silent on the number of participants who might have been infected but asymptomatic.

So, I wasn’t surprised when the WHO’s chief scientist quipped:

“At the moment, I don’t believe we have the evidence on any of the vaccines, to be confident that it’s going to prevent people from getting the infection and passing it on,”

Based on the study’s design and results, I think that it’s reasonable to conclude:

1. The vaccines substantially decrease the probability of catching COVID and developing any symptoms … probably not by 95%, but by a very high number (say, 70%)

2. But, there is an undetermined (or unreported) chance of catching COVID but not developing any symptoms.

3. And, “the science” is still fuzzy on the likelihood of asymptomatic COVID infectees transmitting the virus to other people.

On the last point, some scientists say that asymptomatics are the primary transmitters of the virus.

Others argue that asymptomatics don’t develop symptoms because they have a low “viral load” … and, if their viral load is low, their contagiousness is low … so they’re not transmission threats.

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Bottom line: There’s little news in the headline that has gone viral … an no reason to fret.

I still plan to get vaccinated as soon as I can.

Dec. 29: COVID Data Dashboard

December 29, 2020

343,182 Deaths-to-Date

1,966 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,344      (peak 2,805 Dec. 23)

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Confirmed Cases
186,296 New Cases
> 7-day average  167,239

Currently Hospitalized
121,235
 Current level
> 7-day average 119,089

Dec. 28: COVID Data Dashboard

December 28, 2020

341,138 Deaths-to-Date

1,215 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,324      (peak 2,805 Dec. 23)

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Confirmed Cases
127,740 New Cases
> 7-day average  169,122

Currently Hospitalized
117,344
 Current level
> 7-day average 117,517

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Merry Christmas … 45 Lessons in Life

December 24, 2020

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and HAPPY NEW YEAR to all !

This short video was sent to me by a friend a couple of years ago

It really resonated with me, so continuing a tradition,  I like to share it at Christmas time.

back with you after the New Year

* * * * *

         click to view  (best with audio on)
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* * * * *
Follow on Twitter @KenHoma             >> Latest Posts

Rove: Hostility as powerful as enthusiasm…

December 24, 2020

In today’s WSJ, Karl Rove opined that in the Presidential election:

Hostility proved as powerful as enthusiasm in motivating voters

Trump supporters said their vote was more for Mr. Trump than against Mr. Biden while Mr. Biden’s supporters said their vote was more against the incumbent than for the challenger.

We said that weeks ago , citing our “principle” that:

Hate is a much stronger emotion than love … and that Trump-haters would overwhelm Trump-lovers (and Trump-tolerators).

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Rove also pointed out that:

Mr. Biden won decisively (in the Electoral College), but enough battleground states were close that it could easily have gone the other way.

The combined margin in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin was 42,918 votes.

The election would have been a 269-269 tie if those states were in Mr. Trump’s column.

Imagine the circus if that has occurred.

Dec. 24: COVID Data Dashboard

December 24, 2020

334,174 Deaths-to-Date

3,357 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,805      (peak 2,805 Dec. 23)

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Confirmed Cases
230,855 New Cases
> 7-day average  203,912

Currently Hospitalized
119,463
 Current level
> 7-day average 115,503

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Does Fauci think before he speaks?

December 23, 2020

Loyal readers know that I’m no fan of Dr. Fauci.

It continues to amaze me that, despite all of his errant pronouncements and advice, that the MSM and half of America hangs on his every word.

This week, the media ubiquitous pop-doc went on CNN to reassure children that Santa is safe … that he (Fauci) personally vaccinated Santa and made sure that he was good to go.

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All right, I understand that it was all intended to be in good fun, but…

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Dec. 23: COVID Data Dashboard

December 23, 2020

330,384 Deaths-to-Date

2,936 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,766      (peak 2,766 Dec. 22)

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Confirmed Cases
173,511 New Cases
> 7-day average  205,682

Currently Hospitalized
115,351
 Current level
> 7-day average 113,912

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What if the COVID vaccine had been launched sooner?

December 22, 2020

Bias alert: I’m pro-vax and plan to get vaccinated as soon as I can.
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On one hand, Trump has been justifiably basking in the success of his Operation Warp Speed program that encouraged and enabled pharma to speed up the development process.

It has been a sheer delight seeing the video loops of media pundits and “experts” looking ridiculous when previously dismissing the possibility of a vaccine by now.

See It’s official: Fauci whiffs, again!

Even Sen. Dickie Durbin — to his credit — stepped to the podium on the Senate floor to give Trump a shout-out for a job well done.

And yesterday, Biden conceded that “the Trump administration deserves some of the credit”.

But, headlines the past couple of days seem to be highlighting the logistical challenges, priority controversies and possible negative consequences of the COVID vaccines: “Man in Alaska Suffers Serious Side Effects”, “40% of Chicago Medical Staff Refuses the Vaccine”, etc.

So, I realize that I may be swimming upstream today, channeling a very provocative point-of-view that I saw offered up by Holman Jenkins in the WSJ:

Science triumphed but shouldn’t we have cut corners and moved faster?

Let’s drill down that…

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Dec. 22: COVID Data Dashboard

December 22, 2020

326,771 Deaths-to-Date

1,840 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,680      (peak 2,680 Dec. 21)

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Confirmed Cases
199,473 New Cases
> 7-day average  208,994

Currently Hospitalized
115,351
 Current level
> 7-day average 113,912

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So, how will the Georgia elections turn out?

December 21, 2020

Yesterday, we posted a summary of the polls & odds re: Georgia’s Senate runoff elections.

In a nutshell: Polls have Perdue & Loeffler up by a couple of points; betting markets have GOP odds of avoiding a Dem sweep at 75-25; stock market has been “melting up”

A couple of loyal readers have asked me — given the data — how do I think the election will turn out?

Keeping in mind that I’m nothing more than a curious, analytical guy with no particular political expertise or inside info …

My answer: I’m scoring the odds at 60-40 that the Dems sweep both seats.

Here’s my logic…

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Dec. 21: COVID Data Dashboard

December 21, 2020

324,869 Deaths-to-Date

1,414 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,630      (peak 2,630 Dec. 20)

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Confirmed Cases
183,223 New Cases
> 7-day average  207,751

Currently Hospitalized
113,663
 Current level
> 7-day average 113,235

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GA Senate Races – Odds & Polls

December 20, 2020

RCP Poll-of-Polls

Purdue leading by 2 in prior week’s polls

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Loeffler leading by 3 in prior week’s polls

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PredictIt Betting Market

Betting markets indicating 73-29 chance that
at least one of the GOP candidates will win.

What will be the balance of power in
Congress after the 2020 election?

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Will Democrats win the White House,
Senate and House in 2020?

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Dec. 20: COVID Data Dashboard

December 20, 2020

323,404 Deaths-to-Date

2,559 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,617      (peak 2,617 Dec. 19)

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Confirmed Cases
189,650 New Cases
> 7-day average  208,420

Currently Hospitalized
113,929
 Current level
> 7-day average 112,818

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Dec. 19: COVID Data Dashboard

December 19, 2020

320,345 Deaths-to-Date

2,794 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,510      (peak 2,572 Dec. 17)

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Confirmed Cases
254,680 New Cases
> 7-day average  212,798

Currently Hospitalized
114,237
 Current level
> 7-day average 110,945

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More on the COVID vaccines’ 95% effectiveness rate…

December 18, 2020

Probably overstated but, nonetheless, I’ll get vaccinated as soon as I can!
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It’s undeniable that Operation Warp Speed’s financial support and streamlined regulatory processes motivated rapid development of COVID vaccines,

That was largely predictable.

What wasn’t so predictable was the apparent sky high effectiveness of the early-launch vaccines.

Both Pfizer and Moderna report about 95% effectiveness.

Gotta ask: Are these effectiveness rates too good to be true?

In a prior post, we noted that  the 95% effectiveness is, indeed, sky high compared to previous flu and pandemic virus vaccines.

Today, let’s drill down on the 95% number…

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Dec.18: COVID Dashboard

December 18, 2020

317,524 Deaths-to-Date

2,875 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,572    (peak 2,572 Dec. 17)

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Confirmed Cases

195,995 New Cases
> 7-day average  211,801

Currently Hospitalized

113,090 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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How do COVID vaccines’ effectiveness stack up against prior vaccines?

December 17, 2020

Answer: 95% is sky high compared to previous flu and pandemic virus vaccines.
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Today, let’s put the current COVID vaccines into perspective.

September 2019 White House report looked specifically at flu and coronavirus vaccines, noting that….

There is considerable variation from year to year in how much the flu vaccine reduces the risk of contracting the seasonal flu and flu-related illnesses.

Over the past 14 years, influenza vaccine effectiveness has ranged between 10% and 60%.

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Much of the variability depends on which viral strains predominate in a given year and, more specifically, whether the vaccine matches the viral strain that is circulating in a given flu season.

Although a mismatch between the vaccine and the virus circulating during a flu season reduces efficacy, vaccines still provide some protection against flu illness and decrease the severity of the illness, due to immunologic similarity between the viruses.

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When it comes to pandemic viruses

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Dec. 17: COVID Data Dashboard

December 17, 2020

314,539 Deaths-to-Date

3,448 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,561    (peak 2,561 Dec. 16)

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Confirmed Cases

243,245 New Cases
> 7-day average  212,505

Currently Hospitalized

113,069 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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In dissent, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court’s Chief Justice says…

December 16, 2020

“There are numerous (election) problems that will be repeated again and again, until this court has the courage to correct them.”
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Save for the headline “Wisconsin Supreme Court puts final nail in Trump’s election coffin” … this story isn’t getting much coverage.

That’s too bad because, in the details, the ruling and its dissents hit more nails than the headlined one on the head.

Here’s the essence of the case, the ruling and the dissents ….

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Dec. 16: COVID Data Dashboard

December 16, 2020

311,021 Deaths-to-Date

2,924 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,523    (peak 2,523 Dec. 15)

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Confirmed Cases

196,694 New Cases
> 7-day average  209,099

Currently Hospitalized

112,216 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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It’s official: Fauci whiffs, again!

December 15, 2020

How many times can a media-proclaimed “leading expert” miss the mark and still hold the title?

By my count:

  • He originally said that the COVID risk to Americans was miniscule
  • He opposed the Chinese travel ban as unnecessary or, at least, premature
  • He illogically told people not to wear masks since they won’t help and would deplete PPE stockpiles.  Only the latter was true.
  • He grossly misled Congress regarding the COVID death rate (by an order of magnitude!), conflating the conflation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR).  The CFR (of which Fauci was likely referring) is about 10 times the IFR. Source
  • He championed the “15 days to stop the spread” … using the widely discredited projection of  2 million “do nothing” deaths to seal the deal with Trump. (Note: the 15 day program is approaching day #300).
  • He lauded Cuomo’s “Gold Standard” response to COVID … despite highest death count (over 35,000), 2nd highest fatality rate (NJ is #1), wasted resources (think: a hospital ship, field hospitals and ventilators), an economic disaster in NYC and, oh yeah, a crushing 2nd wave of COVIID.
  • He admitted to boosting his estimate of the herd immunity threshold “partly based on new science and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.” Source
  • He led the charge to close the schools (but now says to close the bars, but open the schools)
  • And, back in March, he proclaimed that “it will take a year or more to develop a Coronavirus vaccine.”

Flashback to March 3, 2020:

Well, Dr. Leading Expert, the first shots of vaccine were administered yesterday… thanks to Trump’s Operation Warp Speed.

Perhaps, Fauci will rush to CNN today to say “Trump was right, I was wrong.”

I won’t hold my breath …

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P.S. Biden announced Fauci as his chief medical adviser.  Say, what?

That’s not following “the science”, it’s following the “political science”.

Dec. 15: COVID Data Dashboard

December 15, 2020

308,010 Deaths-to-Date

1,525 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,510    (peak 2,510 Dec. 14)

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Confirmed Cases

190,773 New Cases
> 7-day average  209,854

Currently Hospitalized

110,549 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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So, who is social distancing and who isn’t?

December 14, 2020

The  “Covid States Project”  recently published their most recent survey of  how Americans  are (or are not) complying with the CDC’s COVID mitigation guidance (e.g. wash hands, disinfect surfaces, wear masks, socially distance)

In a prior post, we noted that  mask wearing compliance has steadily increased  to over 75%  (the light yellow diagonal  line running from the lower left to upper right corners).

But, “socially distancing” behaviors are declining … both the percentage of people avoiding contact with people outside their home (red line) and those avoiding crowded or public places (green line).

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More specifically, the survey indicates:

  • Education: Mask-wearing and social distancing is statistically unrelated to level of education
  • Gender: Women wear masks and socially distance more than men
  • Race: Proportionately fewer Whites wear masks than other racial groups; Whites and Hispanics tend to socially distance less than Blacks and Asians.

But, the differences among education levels, gender and race are relatively modest … probably within the margin of error.

There are a couple of identity characteristics that do show significant differences…

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Dec. 14: COVID Data Dashboard

December 14, 2020

306,459 Deaths-to-Date

1,879 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,508    (peak 2,508 Dec. 13)

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Confirmed Cases

187,901 New Cases
> 7-day average  210,913

Currently Hospitalized

109,331 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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SCOTUS cowers: “Too hot to handle”

December 13, 2020

Rather than ruling on the merits of the case, Justices run for the hills.
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OK, the WSJ had it right … and we had it wrong.

Recognizing that they would be caught between a rock and a hard place, the SCOTUS channeled Sgt. Shultz claim (“I hear nothing, I see nothing”) to stay out of the election dispute.

For the record, here’s the first part of the official SCOTUS statement:

ORDER IN PENDING CASE (155, ORIG.) TEXAS V. PENNSYLVANIA, ET AL.

The State of Texas’s motion for leave to file a bill of complaint is denied for lack of standing under Article III of the Constitution.

Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections.

All other pending motions are dismissed as moot.

The key point: This isn’t a ruling on the merits of the case, i.e. whether there was election fraud and rigging … or not.

The Court just decided to rule on procedural technicalities and leave the merits of the case open for all of us to decide.

Let’s parse the courts statement….

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Dec. 13: COVID Data Dashboard

December 13, 2020

305082 Deaths-to-Date

2,309 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,465    (peak 2,465 Dec. 12)

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Confirmed Cases

220,298 New Cases
> 7-day average  208,908

Currently Hospitalized

108,487 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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WSJ: “A political earthquake if SCOTUS takes the Texas law suit”

December 11, 2020

To be fair & balanced …

Yesterday, we argued that SCOTUS is caught between a rock and a hard place… and would create a legal nightmare if they didn’t rule the actions of the 4 “defendant states” to be unconstitutional.

Today, the WSJ editorializes that the SCOTUS shouldn’t even take the Texas law suit.

Here’s an excerpt from the editorial:

Ken Paxton, the Texas Attorney General, launched an implausible appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn state presidential election results.

It would be a legal and political earthquake if the Court took the case.

The first issue is whether Texas has the legal standing to sue.

To have standing, a plaintiff must point to a specific injury and there must be some possibility of a remedy.

In this case, what is the injury?

Mr. Paxton argues that the four states have harmed his state and violated the Electors Clause of the Constitution by holding elections with major procedural irregularities. He’s saying Texas can be harmed by the way another state manages its elections.

But if Texas can sue on these grounds, then some unhappy state will sue another state after every close election whose outcome it doesn’t like.

Then there’s the problem of remedy. Mr. Paxton wants the Court to intervene and order the four state legislatures to deny Mr. Biden their electoral votes. He claims, with some justification, that the Constitution gives state legislatures the power to choose electors.

But that is what they have done already in certifying their votes.

In other words, Mr. Paxton’s claim is essentially moot as the states have certified their results and chosen electors.

There’s no doubt that Democrats used the pandemic as an excuse to expand mail-in voting that created more opportunities for fraud.

But the GOP should have fought those changes more competently before the election.

To take Mr. Paxton’s case the Court would have to set a new standard for standing to sue in election cases and essentially overturn the election results in four states and disenfranchise millions of voters.

The Justices would be opening an historic constitutional thicket if they take it.

What do you think?

Dec. 11: COVOD Data Dashboard

December 11, 2020

296,612 Deaths-to-Date

2,874 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,385    (peak 2,395 Dec. 9)

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Confirmed Cases

200,924 New Cases
> 7-day average  205,488

Currently Hospitalized

107,248 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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SCOTUS is caught between a rock and a hard place…

December 10, 2020

Having put the Texas case on its docket, SCOTUS faces very hard decisions
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First, some essential background…

The complaint goes directly at the the Court’s constitutional fortitude and sovereignty.

Either the Constitution matters and must be followed, even when some officials consider it inconvenient or out of date, or it is simply a piece of parchment on display at the National Archives.

The fundamental decision that the Court must make is whether or not the “defendant states” (PA, GA, MI, WI) — specifically, their election officials and state courts — acted unconstitutionally when they — not their respective legislatures — changed election laws in the run-up to the 2020 election.

This case presents a question of law:

Did Defendant States violate the Electors Clause by taking— or allowing — non-legislative actions to change the election rules that would govern the appointment of presidential electors?

The crux of the argument:

Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a justification, government officials in the defendant states … usurped their legislatures’ authority and unconstitutionally revised their state’s election statutes.

The defendant states accomplished these statutory revisions through executive fiat or friendly lawsuits, thereby weakening ballot integrity.

These same government officials flooded the defendant states with millions of ballots to be sent through the mails, or placed in drop boxes, with little or no chain of custody and, at the same time, weakened the strongest security measures protecting the integrity of the vote signature verification and witness requirements.

The complaint goes into detail (with numerous precedent cases cited) to establish the venue (why SCOTUS must decide), their standing (in effect, their states constitutional votes were nullified) and the constitutional rationale.

OK so let’s cut to the chase…

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Dec. 10: COVID Data Dashboard

December 10, 2020

296,612 Deaths-to-Date

3,156 Daily New Deaths  (peak 3,156 Dec. 9)
> 7-day average 2,395    (peak 2,395 Dec. 9)

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Confirmed Cases

219,403 New Cases
> 7-day average  207,908

Currently Hospitalized

106,688 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Mask wearing up, cases up, deaths up … huh?

December 9, 2020

A team of northeastern academic researchers, doing a  “Covid States Project”,  recently published their most recent survey of  how “the human behaviors that have been shown to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 have evolved across the US since April, 2020.”

Said differently, they were evaluating whether or not people were complying with the CDC’s COVID mitigation guidance.

The researchers found that, since Spring, mask wearing compliance has increased from slightly over 50% to over 75%  (the light yellow diagonal  line running from the lower left to upper right corners).

Hmmm.

Mask wearing has increased to a relatively high level, yet the number of confirmed cases are spiking to record highs.

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Seems counter-intuitive, doesn’t it?

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Dec. 9: COVID Data Dashboard

December 9, 2020

293,358 Deaths-to-Date

2,857 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,857 Dec. 8)
> 7-day average 2,340    (peak 2,340 Dec. 8)

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Confirmed Cases

201,979 New Cases
> 7-day average  204,960

Currently Hospitalized

104,600 Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Georgia counting controversy is now getting surreal…

December 8, 2020

Unless your TV only gets CNN, you’ve probably seen the election night CCTV video from Fulton County Georgia’s the central counting room at Sate Farm Arena.

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The video shows (or as the Washington Post says “appears to show”) media & observers leaving the room en masse around 10:30 … then ballot-laden suitcases being rolled out from under some tables by the handful of remaining counters who spend the next couple of hours scanning the suitcases’ contents.

The video was presented to GOP-run State Senate Committee by Trump operatives and looped on right-leaning stations and sites.

Immediately, there was pushback by liberal media and fact-checkers … and by Georgia State election officials.

OK, with that as background, let’s unpack the story…

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Dec. 8: COVID Data Dashboard

December 8, 2020

290,439 Deaths-to-Date

1,503 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 2,301    (peak 2,301 Dec. 7)

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Confirmed Cases

198,190 New Cases
> 7-day average  202,130

Currently Hospitalized

102,148  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Some serious efforts at ID verification…

December 7, 2020

May offer some ideas for upping election integrity.
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Regular readers know that I’ve been attentive to to issues surrounding election integrity … especially voter registration lists and ballot verification.

With those issues top-of-mind, I had a couple of relevant experiences in the past couple of days.

First, I got a carpet-bomb email from a friend who was updating his Christmas card list.

He was reaching out to make sure that everybody on the list was still alive and that he had current addresses.

Obviously, he didn’t want to waste postage sending cards to former addresses … and, he didn’t want to inadvertently send cards to anybody who has successfully concluded their earthly tours of duty.

I suggested that he might want to start helping election boards clean up their registration lists.

He politely, but emphatically declined.

So, I’m left with his idea: Why not mail out verification letters to everybody on the voter registration list … to their address of record … mark them “do not forward … include a postage-free return postcard … require them to send the signed postcard back … if they don’t send it back (signed)  flag them on the voter rolls.

Then, if or when they try to vote (or request an absentee ballot), make them re-register to vote — with some legit forms of ID, of course.

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The 2nd experience was a real life case of identity verification done right.

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Dec. 7: COVID Data Dashboard

December 7, 2020

288,906 Deaths-to-Date

1,076 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 2,262    (peak 2.262 Dec. 6)

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Confirmed Cases

173,861New Cases
> 7-day average  196,899

Currently Hospitalized

101,487  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Dec. 6: COVID Data Dashboard

December 6, 2020

287,825 Deaths-to-Date

2,251 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 2,224    (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

208,790  New Cases
> 7-day average  191,412

Currently Hospitalized

101,190  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Dec. 5: COVID Data Dashboard

December 5, 2020

285,550 Deaths-to-Date

2,718 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 2,073    (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

235,272  New Cases
> 7-day average  182,067

Currently Hospitalized

101,276  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Carter-Baker Commission: “Building Confidence in U.S. Elections”

December 4, 2020

Perhaps President Trump should convene still another Commission on Election Integrity… or better yet, nudge Barr to name another Special Counsel to investigate election “irregularities”.
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Anybody remember Bush versus Gore?

There was understandable concern when Florida vote-counting labored on for more than a month after the election and Bush ended up winning by a couple of hundred votes when the SCOTUS ruled “no mas”.

Eventually, in 2005, a Commission on Election Reform was convened, led by former President Jimmy Carter and former GOP Secretary of State James Baker.

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The Carter-Baker Commission Report  covered many of the election issues that have arisen in the 2020 election…

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Dec. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard

December 4, 2020

282,827 Deaths-to-Date

2,914 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,890    (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

217,861  New Cases
> 7-day average  176,311

Currently Hospitalized

100,667  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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If there was widespread fraud, how could the GOP flip so many congressional seats?

December 3, 2020

That’s a question that liberal pundits (and some of my left-leaning friends) are posing to “prove” that there was no widespread fraud … and there’s a simple answer
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The first time I was asked the question, I was stumped, so I did some quick fact-finding.

The answer should have been obvious (to me) from the get-go:

The seats that the GOP flipped weren’t in the notorious metro cheat-spots that tanked Trump, i.e. Philly, Detroit, Milwaukee, Vegas.

Specifically, RCP is currently reporting that the GOP flipped 11 seats; 2 each in FL & CA; 1 each in UT, SC, IA, OK, NM, MI, NY.

With the exception of Michigan, there are no allegations of game-changing cheating in any of the flipped-states … most were red states undoing 2018 blue-flips or landslide Biden states that didn’t need cheating to win (NY, CA).

In Michigan, the flipped congressional district (CD 3) covers Grand Rapids and Battle Creek … far away from the reach of the Detroit machine.

Note: GOP Senate Candidate — John James — lost narrowly.  He was leading until the Detroit votes were counted.

According to RCP, the Dems only flipped 1 congressional seat –  Georgia’s 7th CD — just north of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.

Need I say more on that one?

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Bottom line: GOP flips are hardly evidence that the election was fraud-free in the suspected cheat-spots.

Dec. 3: C-19 Data Dashboard

December 3, 2020

279,845 Deaths-to-Date

2,810 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,661    (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

198767  New Cases
> 7-day average  165,431

Currently Hospitalized

100,226  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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Uh-oh: Bookies think the election was fixed..

December 2, 2020

And, since these bad boys take things like that very personally, they may provide the strongest impetus for election reforms.
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Yesterday, we reported a Rasmussen survey finding that almost half of American voters think that that Democrats stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots in several states to ensure that Biden would win.

Among those “believers” are some of America’s biggest bookies.

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Speaking on behalf of them is a Las Vegas legend named Wayne Allyn Root.

I’m Wayne Allyn Root.

I was a Las Vegas odds maker and sports gaming expert for four decades — long before I became known as a nationally syndicated talk show host.

I understand odds and gambling.

And I can tell you something is very wrong with this presidential election.

It reminds me of a fixed football game.

As an odds maker, when a football game is fixed, even if you can’t prove it, you know.

Gamblers feel that same way about this presidential election.

Let me give you the details of this election- from a gambler’s perspective.

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Dec. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard

December 2, 2020

276,976 Deaths-to-Date

2,611 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,584    (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

182,172  New Cases
> 7-day average  162,879

Currently Hospitalized

98,691  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20

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