The math says that it’s a stretch, but a real possibility.
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In a WSJ op-ed, Hopkins doc Marty Makary boldly asserted the possibility that “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”.
Immediately, Dr. Fauci — our nation’s chief political-scientist — hit the talk shows to hose cold water: “Maybe by Christmas, or mid-2022”.
Note: Mid-2022 is right before the mid-term elections. Hmm.
To calibrate Makary’s logic, I went back to re-read the article and run the numbers…
The essence of Makary’s logic is that people develop immunity to COVID in 2 main ways: (1) by surviving a COVID infection or (2) by getting vaccinated.
And, Makary concludes that we’re already approaching herd immunity.
How can that be?
Let’s work the numbers, starting with the herd immunity threshold: How many people have to be immune to achieve herd immunity?
The Homa Files 