Archive for February 23rd, 2021

Is herd immunity by the end of April possible … or pure folly?

February 23, 2021

The math says that it’s a stretch, but a real possibility.

In a WSJ op-ed, Hopkins doc Marty Makary boldly asserted the possibility that “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”.

Immediately, Dr. Fauci — our nation’s chief political-scientist — hit the talk shows to hose cold water: “Maybe by Christmas, or mid-2022”.

Note: Mid-2022 is right before the mid-term elections. Hmm.

To calibrate Makary’s logic, I went back to re-read the article and run the numbers…

The essence of Makary’s logic is that people develop immunity to COVID in 2 main ways: (1) by surviving a COVID infection or (2) by getting vaccinated.

And, Makary concludes that we’re already approaching herd immunity.

How can that be?

Let’s work the numbers, starting with the herd immunity threshold: How many people have to be immune to achieve herd immunity?


Feb. 23: COVID VAX Stats

February 23, 2021

Vaccine Supply & Vaccinations


Vaccinations per Day


Vaccine Stockpile    Doses NOT Administered


Feb. 23: COVID Tracking Stats

February 23, 2021

Cases & Deaths


Note:  At the index starting date, cases were
~ 100K and deaths were ~ 1,000 per day.


Case Fatality Rate

See Why are COVID deaths continuing
at a high level?