Archive for August, 2011

For the record: Ken’s AGT picks

August 31, 2011

To my family’s dismay, I’ve become an America’s Got Talent junkie.

Last nite was the second of 2 semi-final shows.  Five of the 12 acts move on to the finals.

Here’s my call:

  • Anna Graceman …. an 11 year old Alaskan singer who knocked a Motley Crue song out of the park … disclaimer: students know that I’m biased towards girls named Anna View video of Anna performing
  • Landon Swank … best illusionist since David Copperfield … I thought he was going to blow himself up tonite … ok, he fooled me and survived … hmmm  View Landon’s bang-bang
  • Smage Bros. … two brothers who do amazing (and dangerous) stuff on motor bikes … finale was a jump over their grandmother – really ! —  followed by a high aerial 360 … wow !  Watch ’em jump over Grandma
  • Eugene Landau Murphy … a guy from West Virginia who sings Frank Sinatra … not one of my favorites but audience and judges seemed to like him … note: yes: the “E” in KEH is for Eugene
  • Professor Splash … again, I plead guilty to collegial bias … this overweight dude jumped off a 70 foot platform, through fire, to land in a shallow swimming pool … insane  View Prof Splash’s splash

Biggest disappointments:

  • Gymkana … a gymnastics troop from Univ. of Maryland … great act … they took some risk, jumping through fire … one dude crashed the fire ring  and almost literally burned … that wasn’t part of the act, so they won’t be back
  • Silhouettes … a unique dance troop that forms shapes to tell a story behind a screen … very artsy … likable kids – youngest is only 4 years old … lacked wow tonite … too bad

Possible upset:

  • Kinetic King … a goofy guy who sets up elaborate Rube Goldberg falling dominoes sets … admire the design of the skits and the judges love him … but, I wouldn’t pay to see him … he’ll get the geek vote

Results show is tonite …

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While gov’t coddles Warren, Berkshire Hathaway stiff arms gov’t … shame, shame, Mr. Buffett

August 31, 2011

Punch line: Warren “Please Make Me Pay More Taxes” Buffett has been outted by his company’s proxy statement.

Apparently, Berkshire Hathaway owes back taxes … and is fighting the Federal gov’t tooth & nail to grab some disputable deductions and favorable tax treatments.

Excerpted from NY Post: “Warren Buffett, hypocrite

This one’s truly, uh … rich: Billionaire Warren Buffett says folks like him should have to pay more taxes — but it turns out his firm, Berkshire Hathaway, hasn’t paid what it’s already owed for years.

That’s right:  The company openly admits that it owes back taxes since as long ago as 2002.

“We anticipate that we will resolve all adjustments proposed by the US Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) for the 2002 through 2004 tax years … within the next 12 months,” the firm’s annual report says.

The company also has outstanding tax issues for 2005 through 2009.

Obvious question: If Buffett really thinks he and his “mega-rich friends” should pay higher taxes, why doesn’t his firm fork over what the IRS says it already owes under current rates?

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Pay up, Mr. Buffett … no more coddling, right?

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Somebody tell GM: ”Marketing is more than advertising!”

August 31, 2011

Punch line: What are GM’s adverting tag lines for Caddies & Chevies?

If you don’t know, you’re not alone.

So, GM is hassling its ad agencies.

Excerpted from BrandChannel: “GM Calling Agencies To Task”

Joel Ewanick was recruited as General Motors from Hyundai with expectations he would become a game-changer last year, positioning his new employer for long-term global success for its remaining brands.

But the GM CMO doesn’t think some of the advertising agencies that are supposed to help him are up to game speed yet. And he’s getting impatient.

No wonder Ewanick is a little edgy these days about the two brands.

Chevrolet has gotten stronger since his arrival, but a huge reason for that is one single new product: the Chevrolet Cruze small car, whose appeal seems based on fuel efficiency and strong vehicle features rather than buzz-worthy advertising.

Outsiders expressed concern last year with the brand’s new “Chevy Runs Deep” positioning. It wasn’t clear exactly what that message would do for the brand.

Meanwhile, Cadillac has been losing shine in the luxury-car war … and Caddy’s current “Red Blooded Luxury” campaign has been questioned.

Ken’s Take: My constant refrain to students is that marketing is more than advertising and promotion.

So, I cringed when I read the line “but … success is due to fuel efficiency and strong product features rather than buzz-worthy advertising”.  Emphasis on the “but”.

Horrors.

Success from delivering a good product rather than smoke & mirrowing a bad one.

Somebody, please tell GM that marketing is more than advertising & promotion,

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WH: The process is not yet complete … huh?

August 31, 2011

When Press Secretary Carney was asked for specifics re: Obama’s job plan, he brushed of the question by saying that Obama hasn’t finished conjuring his new jobs plan.

Carney said. “He is still having conversations and meetings and looks to finalize his plan next week, so the answer is no, he’s not complete with that process. The process is continuing, aspects of it still need to be decided.”

When asked if Obama’s speech will be scored by the CBO, he answered: “Don’t expect specifics from the White House on the jobs plan, like how much it will cost.”

Full text

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Obama’s mystery jobs plan is certainly a gift that keeps on giving.

Didn’t he ”pivot to jobs” a couple of years ago … and aren’t jobs the first thing he thinks about in the morning and the last thing he thinks about at night?

Geez.

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Irene post-script: Obama breaks still another campaign promise …

August 30, 2011

Remember when he said:

Generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when  … the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.

Obama’s Nomination Victory Speech In St. Paul June 3, 2008.

And, the silly people in Vermont and NJ believed the hogwash and and voted for him.

Fool them once. shame on him;  fool them twice, shame on them.

 

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Hurricanes and power outages … somethings not right.

August 30, 2011

Since Hurricane Irene wasn’t as bad as predicted … and since my electricity has been out … I’ve had plenty of time to sit and ponder the power outage.

Some semi-random thoughts:

  1. Though the storm was of relatively low severity  (for a hurricane), over 2 million homes lost electrical power.  Why isn’t the system more robust than that? What if the storm had been worse?  Or, what if the system had been targeted by terrorists? It’s frightening how fragile the system is.
  2. Yeah, yeah, yeah … I know that trees fell on the power lines and knocked them down.  It’s 2011.  Why aren’t all the power lines secured underground.  Before you tell me that it costs too much, add up the cost of resetting the fallen lines …. over & over again.
  3. Head-scratcher: Why do utility companies have to be called to tell them that power is out?  They put boxes on sites to throttle back usage when demand is peaked.  Can’t those boxes tell them when power is out?
  4. Head-scratcher: When attempting to drive to a nearby friend’s house yesterday, I was blocked by a down power line.  I u-turned.  Behind me was a BGE repair truck.  He u-turned, too, stopped and called the dispatcher.  The down line that he was assigned was beyond the one he encountered – so the dispatcher sent him (after about 15 minutes) to another site (I hope).  Why didn’t the jabrones just fix the line that the repair crew literally ran into?  Geez, that’s why it takes so long to restore power.
  5. On the same trip, I passed a couple of homes with really big trees fallen on them.  Big time damage, Had sympathy for the folks and stopped whining (for a few minutes) about my power being out, I guess the storm’s severity depended on how hard YOU got hit.
  6. Damn generators.  Yeah, power out is an inconvenience.  But, enough to warrant an auxiliary generator?  My view: not unless there’s a medical reason. And, there’s a social cost: Those things are so loud that even I – the soundest of sleepers – had trouble dozing off.  Now, that’s an issue for our crack Congress to go after.
  7. I figure that I spent about $250 on rope, batteries, etc., that – it turns out – I really didn’t need since the storm didn’t match the hype.  Hope that stimulative spending saved or created a job or two.
  8. Still amazed by the job Home Depot and Wal-mart did positioning product for hurricane prep and recovery.  Shouldn’t all retailers be on the same type of program?

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"Don’t touch that dial!" … what dial?

August 30, 2011

Once in class I made reference to “the TV’s fine-tuning knob”.

Students looked at me like I was, well, pretty old.

Glad to see that a variant of the cliché made Beloit College’s Class of 2015 “Mindset List” which gives a snapshot of the world view of the incoming freshmen class.

Note: Most students entering college for the first time this fall — members of the Class of 2015 — were born in 1993.

Here are more of my favorites:

1. There has always been an Internet ramp onto the information highway.

4. The only significant labor disputes in their lifetimes have been in major league sports.

9. “Don’t touch that dial!” . what dial?

10. American tax forms have always been available in Spanish.

12. Amazon has never been just a river in South America.

15. O.J. Simpson has always been looking for the killers of Nicole Simpson and Ronald Goldman.

24. “Yadda, yadda, yadda” has always come in handy to make long stories short.

28. Jimmy Carter has always been a smiling elderly man who shows up on TV to promote fair elections and disaster relief.

30. Dial-up is soooooooooo last century!

33. Faux Christmas trees have always outsold real ones.

34. They’ve always been able to dismiss boring old ideas with “been there, done that, gotten the T-shirt.”

37. Music has always been available via free downloads.

38. Grown-ups have always been arguing about health care policy.

39. Moderate amounts of red wine and baby aspirin have always been thought good for the heart.

48. While they’ve been playing outside, their parents have always worried about nasty new bugs borne by birds and mosquitoes.

57. They’ve often broken up with their significant others via texting, Facebook, or MySpace.

61. Major League Baseball has never had fewer than three divisions and never lacked a wild-card entry in the playoffs.

64. Altar girls have never been a big deal.

71. Refugees and prisoners have always been housed by the U.S. government at Guantanamo.

Source: 2011 Beloit College Mindset List

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Hurrican prep: Plenty of Pop Tarts, but no D batteries … here’s why.

August 29, 2011

It was interesting shopping for hurricane supplies on Thursday & Friday.

First stop: RadioShack to buy a battery-powered portable AM-FM radio.

Sign: no D batteries.

Clerk acted like he’d never heard of AM or FM

Next stop, the local Giant food store.

Already out of water.

Out of water?

Next stop: the local Ace Hardware.

Chalked on the sidewalk: No D batteries, no propane, no water.

Translation: go away

Hmmm. A pattern?

Next stop: Home Depot.

Piled in “impulse alley”: generators, flashlights, first-aid kits … but, in fairness, no D batteries

Next stop: Battery Warehouse.

No Ds, but plenty of AA, AAA, and Cs.

I bought some Cs, hoping they’d fit in something useful if the power went out.

Punch line: Hat tip to HD – with whom I have a love-hate relationship – for emergency preparedness.

It’s not an accident …

Excerpted from NPR: “Stores’ Hurricane Prep Starts Early”

Hurricane Katrina taught big-box retailers that they need to be an integral part of hurricane preparation and relief efforts.

For nearly a week in advance Irene, big-box retailers like Walmart and Home Depot were  getting ready.

They’ve deployed hundreds of trucks carrying everything from plywood to Pop-Tarts to stores in the storm’s path.

It’s all possible because these retailers have turned hurricane preparation into a science.

At Home Depot’s Hurricane Command Center in Atlanta, for example, about 100 associates have been trying to anticipate how Irene will affect its East Coast stores from the Carolinas to New York.

They have been focusing on stocking a short list of items including generators, chain saws, water and tarps.

Those supplies were flowing to stores because of a process that began months ago, at the beginning of hurricane season.

“We take storm product, both pre- and post-strike product, we stage those in containers and we have them in our distribution centers, really ready for a driver to pull up and pick up and take them to our stores.”

Walmart is able to anticipate surges in demand during emergencies thanks to a team of meteorologists and a huge historical database of sales from each store as well as sophisticated predictive techniques.

That system is helping them allocate things like batteries, ready-to-eat foods and cleaning supplies to areas in the storm’s path.

“They know exactly what people want after a hurricane … for example,  the most popular food item after a major storm  is strawberry Pop-Tarts.”

OK, plenty of Pop Tarts … now, how about those D batteries?

My bet: all the lithium is going to Chevy Volts.

Stock up !

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In the news: Ken comments on Groupon …

August 29, 2011

When asked by Dow-Jones career site “Hire Wire” about Groupon’s prospects and whether it was a good place to start a career, I said:

Young job hunters naturally want to work for a company that is “trendy and cool,” said Ken Homa, a marketing professor at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business. Getting in on the ground floor of a fast growing company can be exciting.

For those developing a long term career, the sustainability of the daily deals model is critical. “It’s been relatively easy during a recession to get local merchants to sign up once for [Groupon’s] service,” Homa said. “If this is a survivable business model, I’ll be stunned.”

Having a known brand like Groupon on your resume can’t hurt. “When people are selling themselves for the next job, the fact that they had this experience and they saw the formula provides a meaningful credential,” Homa said.

Source: Hire Wire, Chris Prentice
Groupon May Lose Cache as Daily Deals Sites Proliferate

We’ll see …

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Got a spare $35,000 ? … If yes, you can hear B&O tell you your taxes are too low.

August 26, 2011

It’s reported that Warren Buffett  is hosting a fund-raiser for Obama’s re-election, billed as an “economic forum,”

According to the NY Post:

Tickets for the event at New York’s Four Seasons restaurant on Sept. 30 start at $10,000 a head, with VIP tickets a budget-boosting $35,800.

Guests get an hour of “Q&A moderated by one of President Obama’s closest economic advisors, Austan Goolsbee.”

What will be discussed is Buffett’s recent highly publicized claim that the wealthy should pay higher taxes.

As one invitee reportedly sniffed, “Nothing like advocating tax equality when you are charging $35,800 a ticket.”

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“It’s not the consumers’ job to know what they want.”

August 26, 2011

That was what Steve Jobs has has been saying for years.

The statement seems to be rippling through the marketing community now that Jobs has resigned.

NY Times, Without Its Master of Design, Apple Will Face Many Challenges

Mr. Jobs explained that his design decisions were shaped by his understanding of both technology and popular culture.

His own study and intuition, not focus groups, were his guide.

When a reporter asked what market research went into the iPad, Mr. Jobs replied: “None. It’s not the consumers’ job to know what they want.”

What’s the rub?

Jobs’ success flies in the face of marketers who spend  time and energy arguing for and doing extensive consumer research (surveys. focus groups, etc.).

And, it’s hard to argue with his success,

Hmmm.

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Amateur Hour: No wonder the economy is a mess

August 25, 2011

According to a study by the Employment Policies Institute …

How many members of Congress have an academic background that provided them with a basic understanding how the economy works?

The answer, it turns out, is not many.

Publicly available data  show that nearly 8 out of 10  members of Congress lack an academic background in business or economics.

  • 55.7% majored in either government-related fields or the humanities
  • 13.7% majored in a business or accounting-related field.
  • 8.4% majored in an economics-related field

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Question: Think the President took a single econ or biz course in college or grad school – except for, maybe, contract law?  I’m betting the under.  I’d still like to see his transcripts to peek at his GPA (UG lower than W’s?) and to see if he took any econ-biz courses.

Couple the above with the low percentage of Obama’s cabinet who had worked in the private business sector prior to their appointment to the cabinet.

Below are the percentages of cabinet members with private sector experience …

Eisenhower………..57%
Reagan……………..56%
GW Bush……………55%
Nixon…………………53%
Wilson ………………52%
GH Bush…………… 51%
F. Roosevelt……….50%
Truman………………50%

Harding………………49%
Coolidge…………… 48%
Johnson……… …….47%
Ford…………………..42%
Hoover ………………42%
Taft……………………40%

Clinton ……….. …..39%
T. Roosevelt……….38%
Carter………………..32%
Kennedy…………….30%

Obama……………… 8%

Hmmm.

Draw your own conclusion.

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Does Warren Buffett really think pre-tax returns should guide investment decisions?

August 25, 2011

From the “Everything You Learned in Business School is Wrong” file …

Anybody who has taken a b-school finance course has learned to evaluate investments on an after-tax basis.

Right?

Well, apparently Warren Buffett thinks finance profs are spewing garbage.

In his recent “coddled” op-ed, Buffett said:

…  the notion that high taxes discourage hiring and investment is false.

I have yet to see anyone … shy away from a sensible investment because of the tax rate on the potential gain.

People invest to make money, and potential taxes have never scared them off.

So, the Oracle of Omaha thinks pre-tax is the way to evaluate investments.

Really?

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Down to 38 … what, me worry?

August 24, 2011

Lost among the news about Libya and the east coast earthquake …

Yesterday, President Obama’s approval rate dropped to a new low … now.  Gallup says that only 38% approve of the job he’s doing.

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Fortunately, the drop didn’t phase the vacationer-in-chief … though, it was reported that the earthquake was felt in Martha’s Vineyard and almost jiggled the President’s ice cream out of its cone.

“Let them eat ice cream …”

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How much time do unemployeds spend searching for jobs?

August 24, 2011

Answer: Not much … but, I bet you suspected as much.

According to Freakonomics and The Atlantic:

A new study by economists from Princeton and the University of Chicago breaks it down. The bulk of foregone market work time during the recent recession, they say, is spent on leisure. Only 1% is spent searching for a job.

Hmmm

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* * * * *

Time distribution of unemployed Americans:

  • 20% to sleeping.
  • 15% to “other leisure,” including listening to music and being on the computer, exercising and recreation, and hobbies such as arts, collecting, writing.
  • 13% to core home production activities (cooking, cleaning, laundry, etc.)
  • 12% to watching TV.
  • 12% to time investments in own health care, own education, and civic activities.
  • 8% to increased shopping.
  • 7% to home maintenance and repair.
  • 6% to child care.
  • 4% to the care of other older adults.
  • 1% of the foregone market work hours are allocated to job search.

Ken’s Take: 99 weeks of unemployment benefits sure can shift a person’s priorities …

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Maybe AOL-Time Warner merger was just ahead of it’s time.

August 23, 2011

Counter to the popular view that the AOL-Time Warner merger was one of the worst predictable merger disasters in history, I’ve long argued that the merger made perfect sense but was poorly implemented – largely because top management under-managed the post-transaction combination.

Now, Nicholas Jackson says in The Atlantic that “Maybe, a Second AOL-Time Warner Marriage Would Work Better

Why?

“When the two companies first merged back in 2001, they had competing interests. Today, they’re both focused on creating content.”

He says:

The idea behind the 2001 merger sounded perfect: one of the world’s largest distributors of online content meets one of the world’s most recognized content-making companies.

But the companies were too different, and their mismatch led to failure.

Now, everything has changed.

AOL is, primarily, a content company.

“AOL is singularly focused on becoming the next great media company for the digital age, being rich, engaging and easy to find content and experiences for consumers and best-in-class environment for advertisers,”

Bottom line: Merging two content companies might make sense, and TW has the resources to re-acquire AOL.

Unlikely, but interesting ….

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Medicaid eye-opener: 1/3 of spending to nursing homes …

August 23, 2011

When most people (i.e. me)  think of Medicaid, they think of gov’t funded medical care for the poor.

Surprised me to learn that about 1/3 of Medicaid spending supports elderly patients in long-term care facilities (e.g. nursing homes).

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Source

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According to the Georgetown Health Policy Institute:

“Although most long-term care is provided by family members on an unpaid basis, most of the nation’s long-term care spending (75%) is
concentrated on nursing home care, and Medicaid, the nation’s health care program for poor and low income Americans, is the largest source of payment for that care.”

Some basic stats:

  • Over 1 million total Medicaid nursing facility residents
  • Over 400 million Medicaid nursing facility days per year
  • Medicaid nursing facility per diem rate ~ $85

“Nearly half of the nation’s nursing home bill was paid by Medicaid in 2003, while just over a quarter was paid out-of-pocket, and less than 10 percent was covered by private insurance.”

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Source

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Why people – especially Medicare insureds – see the doctor way too much …

August 22, 2011

According to the WSJ:

Medicare utilization is roughly 50% higher than private health-insurance utilization, even after adjusting for age and medical conditions.

In other words, given two patients with similar health-care needs—one a Medicare beneficiary over age 65, the other an individual under 65 who has private health insurance—the senior will use nearly 50% more care.

Why?

People who have comprehensive health coverage like Medicare tend to use more care, and more expensive care — with no noticeable improvement in health outcomes — than those who have basic coverage or high deductibles.

Prof Mark Perry extends the observation, to partially explain why healthcare costs are so high … in general, folks have a decreasing amount of skin in the game (think deductibles and co-pays) … and when consumers are insulated from costs, they consume more … and more … and more.

The graph below tells the story.

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Hiring incentives are a bad idea … here’s why

August 22, 2011

An idea being floated as part of Obama’s September plan is to offer employers incentives – say, a year’s waiver on unemployment insurance premiums – for any new hires.

At first blush, it sounds like a good idea.

But it’s not.

First, no sensible employer is going to make incremental hires for a single year of benefits.  If they do, there are equal odds that they’ll jettison the employees when the waiver expires.

More important, the program is likely to punish responsible companies and reward irresponsible ones.

Let me explain.

Say, company A laid off 20% of its workforce during the recession – largely due to the business slowdown, but also the result of opportunistic house-cleaning – getting rid of slackers and dolts.

Comparable company B  laid off a couple employees due to the downturn, but – took its lumps – and kept most of its employees on the payroll, even though many weren’t really needed.

Along comes the hiring incentive.

Which company gets it?

Yep, company A – the company that shed employees.

What does company B get for standing by its employees.

Nothing.

Sound fair to you?

Sounds like punishing responsible behavior … again!

P.S. And, now that the idea has leaked … why in the world would any company hire employees now.?

Smart ones will sit back and wait for the incentives to kick in.

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Georgetown’s “goodwill” basketball game vs. China ends in brawl … no kidding

August 19, 2011

According to SI …

A wild brawl broke out between Georgetown and a Chinese men’s basketball team Thursday night, putting an immediate end to a supposed goodwill game that coincided with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s visit to the country.

The benches cleared and fights erupted all over the court with about 9½ minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Georgetown is in China on a 10-day trip which has been cited by the U.S. State Department as an example of sports diplomacy that strengthens ties between the two countries.

Full article & video

Question (after viewing the video): With a population of 1.3 Billion (with a “B”), don’t you think the Chinese should be able to fill a high school gym for a game against the Hoyas?

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Locker room sign: “Excuses are for losers”

August 19, 2011

The sign over the door to my high school’s football locker room reminded players that “excuses are for losers”.

Obviously, Pres. Obama didn’t play football for the Maple Heights Mustangs … or, I imagine, any of the thousands of HS or college teams that paste the slogan in their locker rooms.

Why is that a safe bet?

In “Did Bo (Obama’s Dog) Eat The Recovery?”, IBT has a nice recap of the people and events that te President wants to blame for the bad economy

In his inaugural address 2 1/2 years ago, President Obama called for a “new era of responsibility.” Yet lately, his main goal in life seems to be escaping any responsibility for the lousy economy.

It’s getting so you have to keep a list of everyone and everything Obama wants to blame for the anemic economic recovery.

So far, it includes:

• President Bush: Obama continues to blame Bush for the mess he inherited, despite the fact that the recession had pretty much bottomed out by the time Obama took office and was officially over a mere four months after he was sworn in.

• ATMs: In June, Obama blamed automated teller machines and airport check-in kiosks for the lack of jobs, saying that “businesses have learned to become much more efficient, with a lot fewer workers.”

• Republicans: On Monday, Obama said that because “some in Congress would rather see their opponents lose than America win, we ended up creating more uncertainty and more damage to an economy that was already weak” — a thinly veiled attempt to blame the GOP for the economic malaise.

• Gridlock: Obama goes after partisan impasses. What he’s really complaining about is that lawmakers haven’t enacted his latest “stimulus” plan — spending hikes, gimmicky tax breaks and a massive tax hike — that has already been tried and failed.

• The media: In July, Obama said the “splintered” press was in part to blame for Washington’s failure to boost the economy. “If you never even have to hear another argument,” he said, “then over time you start getting more dug in into your positions.”

• Businesses: Obama has often blamed companies needlessly sitting on massive piles of cash. In May, he insisted that firms should “step up” and start hiring.

• Misfortune: “Over the last six months, we’ve had a string of bad luck,” he said at a town hall on Monday, citing the Arab Spring, the Japanese tsunami and Europe’s debt crisis. “So there were a bunch of things taking place over the last six months that were not within our control.”

At a press conference this summer, Obama said: “I’m not interested in finger-pointing.”

But that’s all he’s been doing for months.

Wouldn’t it be nice if Obama instead were to live up to his inaugural credo and start his own “era of responsibility” by admitting his role in the country’s economic slump?

As the sign says “excuses are for losers” …

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Revenge of the appraisers …

August 19, 2011

Worth-read article posted by RCP summarizing the history of residential appraisers … and the impact of attempts by the gov’t to regulate them.

Punch line:

Among the many guilty co-conspirators in the housing bubble were appraisers who succumbed to pressure from loan officers, buyers and real estate agents eager to get deals done. Wary of losing business, these appraisers submitted home valuations that were unrealistically high, contributing to an upward spiral of prices that was unsustainable.

Appraisers’ lack of independence brought calls for reform once the market melted down, including a spate of new federal regulations commencing in 2009, the latest in a long string of efforts by the government over the last half century to reform the business. Now, ironically, those new regulations are being blamed for some of the housing market’s current struggles, as exceptionally low home valuations kill deals, including those between highly qualified buyers and eager sellers.

Some real estate agents and lenders estimate low appraisals are killing from 20 to 40 percent of deals. Even allowing for a certain amount of exaggeration endemic to the real estate business, low valuations have become a significant problem in the market’s struggles.

Ken’s Take: I’ve heard some stories about low valuations killing deals … and low valuations working out to buyers’ advantage as sellers cut prices to conform to the valuations..

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What happens if there are no rich people?

August 18, 2011

Great chart in the WSJ, extracted from the latest IRS data:

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Provokes a couple of thoughts:

  1. There aren’t that many folks earning over $1 million annually … less than 250,000 out of 150 million tax filers.
  2. The reported thresholds are AGI – before taxes … number of folks in the categories r is even smaller after-taxes or if you income average across a few years
  3. Number has shrunk during the recession … what if they all go away, e.g. move or get their $millions taxed away or stop earning
  4. Earnings & wealth … even the WSJ doesn’t seem to understand the difference between stocks and flows – earnings is a ‘flow’, wealth is a ‘stock’ … millionaire status should be based on wealth not one’s year’s earnings

This issue doesn’t impact me as long as I’m making $8.75 an hour teaching … and, I have no great interest inprotecting the so-called super rich … but, I don’t like singling out a miniscule group of citizens for targeted “attention” … today it’s them, tomorrow, it’s us.

Bad precedent.

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In praise of high-speed rail … oh, just kidding

August 18, 2011

Ken’s Take:  Here’s a nice summary by Michael Barone debunking one President “No Sacred Cows” Obama’s  sacred cows … high-speed rail between and through solid blue territory (think Nevada & California) and swing stated (think (Iowa).

In negotiations on the debt limit, Obama has fenced off several programs from any cuts at all.

One is, astonishingly, the $53 billion he wants to spend on high-speed rail projects. To call high-speed rail a "boondoggle" is to engage in considerable understatement.
 
These projects include

  • $715 million for construction of 100 miles of track between the small towns of Borden and Corcoran in California’s Central Valley.
     
    A train from Iowa City, Iowa, that will take longer to get to Chicago than already existing bus service
  • A train from Minneapolis to Duluth, Minn., that will average 69 miles per hour — about what you could average on the parallel Interstate 35.
     

Obama has rhapsodized about the pleasure of walking to a train station and taking a high-speed rail trip to another city.

But the great majority of Americans don’t live within an easy drive of a train station.
 
A high-speed rail line might make sense in the densely populated Northeast corridor between Washington and Boston, but these projects make no sense in most of the rest of America.

No wonder the governors of Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida have turned down federal money for rail projects that parallel interstate highways.

They realize that their taxpayers would get stuck for inevitable cost overruns and operating deficits.

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Feds’ spotlight shifts from tanning salons to Chipotle …

August 18, 2011

According to the WSJ

After an immigration audit of its payrolls, burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill lost 450 of its roughly 1,200 employees in Minnesota.

Now it’s dealing with the aftermath— rising turnover – as workers concerned about their documents might have decided to seek employment elsewhere — and grumbling customers because of slower service from new employees.

When you went in there before … the quality was great,” says  a longtime Chipotle fan in Minneapolis.

“Now it takes forever. People are slopping stuff together.”

Other areas being targeted by audits include Virginia and Washington, D.C.

“It is very troubling for us to lose so many great employees,” said a company spokesman.

Ken’s Take: “Slopping stuff together”?  Isn’t a burrito – by definition – stuff that’s slopped together?

Lighten up, dude …

>> Latest Posts

Seriously, would you trade our healthcare system for Canada’s or England’s?

August 18, 2011

A recent “Investor’s Business Daily” article has been making the email circuit.

Provides statistics from a survey by the United Nations International Health Organization:

* * * * * *

Percentage of men and women who survived a cancer five years after diagnosis:

U.S. 65%  Canada 42% England 46%

* * * * *

Percentage of patients diagnosed with diabetes who received treatment within six months:

U.S. 93% Canada 43% England 15%

* * * * *

Percentage of seniors needing hip replacement who received it within six months:

U.S. 90%  Canada 43% England 15%

* * * * *

Percentage referred to a medical specialist who see one within one month:

U.S. 77% Canada 43% England 40%

* * * * *

Number of MRI scanners (a prime diagnostic tool) per million people:

U.S. 71 England 14 Canada 18

* * * * *

>> Latest Posts

Re: Buffett … WSJ jumps on the HomaFiles’ bus.

August 17, 2011

On Monday (and before in 2010), the HomaFiles said:

I am serious about eliminating the estate deduction for charitable gifts.

That would get Warren Buffett whining another tune.

You see, he’s reported to be bequeathing most of his estate to his buddy & fellow fat-cat Bill Gates’ foundation.

Let’s see, he ducks a lot of estate taxes, just by channeling money to his mega-rich buddy.

Sounds like a loophole to me.

Mr. Buffett: why not pay your fair share and then ship after-tax dollars to your friend, Bill.

Today (2 days after the latest HF post on the subject), the WSJ jumped on the bus: hopped on issue:

For billionaires like Mr. Buffett, the single most important deduction in the tax code is for charitable giving. Middle-class earners can’t give nearly as much money away to reduce their overall tax burden. Yet we don’t hear Mr. Buffett calling for the elimination of that deduction in the name of fairness.

Mr. Buffett has also already sheltered the bulk of his fortune from federal taxes by putting them into a foundation that will give the money away. That’s an act of generosity, but if the government’s purposes are so vital, why doesn’t he simply give the money to the IRS?

Rebecca Quick of CNBC put that question to Mr. Buffett in 2007. His answer: “Well, that’s a choice and it’s an option . . . If I had to give it to a single individual, or make some young Buffett a multibillionaire, or give it to the government, I’d absolutely give it to the government. I think that on balance the Gates Foundation, my daughter’s foundation, my two sons’ foundations will do a better job with lower administrative costs and better selection of beneficiaries than the government.”

Mr. Buffett is no doubt right about the relative efficiency of private donors, but should billionaire philanthropists get such a large tax preference? Another case of fairness?

Coincidence?

Or, is the WSJ peeking at the HomaFiles?

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Mid-week holidays, 3 day weekends … forget about it in Italy.

August 17, 2011

Feel a bit guilty reporting this from Myrtle Beach, but …

According to Reuters, one of the provisions in Italy’s debt-crisis-induced austerity program is …

A rule ensuring that non-religious public holidays, such as the June 2 anniversary of the founding of the Italian Republic, are celebrated on a Sunday to increase the number of working days in a year.

Geez, that means Italians will have to make do with their measly 6 weeks of paid vacation.

There’ll be flash mobs over this one, for sure.

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Source

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Obama’s tailwind … no, that’s not a typo

August 17, 2011

Punch line: The President can count on 90% of the African-American vote in 2012.  Regardless …

Add to that 100% of union members and he has a 20 point tailwind going into the election.

GOP beware.

Excerpted from The Daily Beast

The Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, hosted a discussion Monday on “The African American Vote in 2012 and Beyond.”

One of the questions before the panel was this: With persistently high unemployment and continuing economic woes within the black community, is there room for the right to make inroads?

The general consensus was  that Obama could be confident of the support of more than 90 percent of African Americans. 

African Americans won’t desert Obama

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Memo to Buffett: Here’s the way I’d like to see your coddling get stopped …

August 16, 2011

Warren Buffett is back at it … whining that his taxes are too low.

In a NY Times op-ed he says:

For those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains.

And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate.

My friends and I have been coddled long enough by a billionaire-friendly Congress. It’s time for our government to get serious about shared sacrifice.

Since Warren won’t just pony up extra dough to the Treasury (why not?), I suggest that:

  1. All personal wealth  (not income !) over $1 billion should be confiscated immediately.
  2. Tax-dodging charitable deductions from estates greater than, say, $5 million, should be eliminated.

No, I’m not serious about the first idea … though, it would be nice to clarify the distinction between income & wealth … and, it would be fun to see the fattest of the fat cats squirm.

I am serious about eliminating the estate deduction for charitable gifts.

That would get Warren whining another tune.

You see, he’s reported to be bequeathing most of his estate to his buddy & fellow fat-cat Bill Gates’ foundation. 

Let’s see, he ducks a lot of estate taxes, just by channeling money to his mega-rich buddy.

Sounds like a loophole to me.

Mr. Buffett: why not pay your fair share and then ship after-tax dollars to your friend, Bill.

Let’s really end the coddling …

>> Latest Posts

Five Guys winning formula: “Shut up, sit down, and eat.”

August 16, 2011

Business Week went “Behind Five Guys’ Beloved Burgers” … here’s some of what they found:

Five Guys’ that sells 2 million burgers a week and was named Zagat’s “best fast food burger” for 2010.

By the end of this year, Five Guys expects to have almost 1,000 stores open around the country, over $1 billion in sales and around 25,000 employees working in Five Guys stores.

Five Guys serves up made-to-order burgers with beef that’s never frozen and absurdly large servings of hand-cut fries.

  • Five Guys’ regular cheeseburger, comes with two patties and 840 gluttonous calories
  • Five Guys’ uses a special roll that’s sweeter and eggier than a typical bun.
  • French fries must be shaken fifteen times, no more, no less.
  • Onion and bacon go below hamburger patties, pickles and tomatoes go above.
  • They don’t serve milk because kids don’t actually like milk, and kids like Five Guys because it’s a treat.

The fresh, generous meals allow them to charge more than fast food chains such as McDonald’s and Burger King.

Five Guys stores seem to say, in the most loving way possible, “Shut up, sit down, and eat.”

A quirky aspect of their management style: frequent yelling during meetings. “It’s weird how it works … but You end up at the answer.”

* * * * *
Ken’s Take: Nothing like a stop at Five Guys before a Hoyas’ basketball game.  I knew I loved the place, now I know why  …

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Unleashing private capital to stabilize the housing market …

August 15, 2011

For a couple of years (literally), I’ve been blogging that the key to stabilizing the housing market is incentivizing private capital (i.e. investors) to buy up distressed properties and rent them.

Finally, I found somebody who’s thinking on the same track.

Daniel Indiviglio of the Atlantic agrees that “Investors Can Fix the Housing Market”.

He says to “Stop Trying to Prevent Foreclosures — Mortgage Modifications Aren’t Working” and to “Ignore Consumers — They Can’t Fix This Problem”

The first point is a gimme.

Regarding consumers inability to fix the problem, he argues:

Remember that home buying credit?

Yeah, it didn’t work out so well. Home sales rose for about a year, then they plummeted and prices began to fall again.

The problem is that consumers aren’t in any position to fix the problem, so you just pulled forward a little bit of future demand.

Most people who can qualify for and afford to own a home already have one at this point.

To clear out housing inventory, you’ll need to rely on people who have cash to spend. Most Americans don’t.

The essence of his answer: make real estate investment tax-free for the next couple of years.

I agree.

To refresh your memory, here’s my plan.

  1. Eliminate future capital gains taxes on any residential property bought in the next 2 years, and held for at least 3 years.
  2. Allow investors (i.e. landlords) who rent the properties to depreciate the properties on an aggressively accelerated basis (i.e. say, 5 years),
  3. Allow any excess tax losses from renting to be applied to ordinary income.

The likely outcome: a massive inflow of private capital to buy residential properties, housing prices would be bid up, folks would have access to affordable rentals, and the economy would be stimulated … REALLY stimulated.

>> Latest Posts

Flawed research … “retraction notices” surge

August 15, 2011

Punch line: An increasing number of published research studies – scientific & academic – are being “retracted” because the outcomes being reported can’t be replicated or are just plain fraudulent.

Geez.  If you can’t believe the journals …

* * * * *
From Thomson-Reuters & the WSJ …

Since 2001, while the number of papers published in research journals has risen 44%, the number retracted has leapt more than 15-fold.

Just 22 retraction notices appeared in 2001, but 139 in 2006 and 339 last year.

Through seven months of this year, there have been 210, according to a Thomson Reuters study of peer-reviewed journals world-wide.

 

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>> Latest Posts

Barry drops below the Mendoza line … approval below 40%

August 14, 2011

Geex, what a way to start a vacation.

Just before leaving for his midwest bus trip and Cape Cod, the President gets some new survey results from Gallup: Only 39% approve of the job he’s doing as president.

In baseball, the Medoza line (i.e. the line between poor and bad performance)  is a batting average of .200.

I think it’s fair to say that 40% is the presidential approval equivalent.

Note: the score comes from left-leaning Gallup, not right-leaning Rasmussen.

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Source

>> Latest Posts

Proud to be a Marketer …

August 12, 2011

From Prof. Mark Perry’s blog

“Britain’s female beach volleyball champions are renting out their rears in an advertising deal that encourages spectators to photograph their behinds.

Zara Dampney, 24, and Shauna Mullin, 26, have turned their bottoms into their bottom line by wearing bikini briefs with a Quick Response (QR) code printed on the back where it will catch the eye of spectators.

When photographed on a smartphone, the code takes the user to a specific website – in this case, for bookmakers Betfair.”

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>> Latest Posts

My, oh my … How Jay Carney’s views on vacations have changed.

August 12, 2011

Great archival find by Drudge …

This week, Carney (Obama’s press secretary said: “No one begrudges the President some time off now.”

Back in 2001, Carney had a different view of Presidential vacations.

A Vacationing Bush Works Hard for His Photo-Ops
By Jay Carney Thursday, Aug. 16, 2001 

Back in July, when they were planning what the President should do during his month-long vacation (as part of their effort to persuade the public that he wasn’t actually on vacation in the generally accepted sense of what vacation means — i.e., having fun and not working), the image-makers hit upon a clever idea. 

Make it seem as though the President were engaged in some concentrated activity of presidential purpose, they would name the entire series of trips — together with his down time at his ranch in Crawford, Texas — the "Home to the Heartland" tour. 

Classic examples of that much maligned but ever-reliable staple of political activity: the "photo-op."

The President’s most glaring weakness is the public’s perception that he is pro-business.

Given the high marks he’s getting for his overall job performance , some might even say it’s his only weakness.

The question now is whether a few photo-ops will fix the problem — or just make it worse.

The Bigger Point: Drudge placed emphasis on the hypocrisy re: Presidential vacations.

I think the bigger point is that President Obama’s press secretary thinks that being pro-business is a weakness.

Oh, really.

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Apparently the Feds don’t read the HomaFiles …

August 12, 2011

A couple of years late, the WSJ reports that …

The Obama administration will announce plans to seek investors’ ideas for turning thousands of foreclosed properties owned by government-backed entities into rental homes, .

The move is intended to put a floor under declining home prices by creating a way to deal with hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures in coming years.

No kidding …

Loyal readers know that the HomaFiles has been all over this issue for a couple of years,  Original post

Ken’s Plan:

Some simple tax code changes can unleash private capital to suck up bargain priced residential real estate and induce investors rent it out.

Specifically, eliminate future capital gains taxes on any residential property bought in the next 2 years, allow investors (i.e. landlords) who rent the properties to depreciate the properties on an aggressively accelerated basis (i.e. say, 5 years), and allow any excess tax losses from renting to be applied to ordinary income.

The likely outcome: a massive inflow of private capital to buy residential properties, housing prices would be bid up, folks would have access to affordable rentals, and the economy would be stimulated … REALLY stimulated.

The downsides?

The higher prices would be somewhat artificial, unless the model becomes a new paradigm – replacing the American Dream of home ownership.

And for sure, the tax benefits would accrue to “fat cats”.

So what, let’s get the economy rolling …

>> Latest Posts

Four Ways CMOs Can Gain Power

August 11, 2011

A spreading sentiment these days is that marketing (and CMOs) are being marginalized ….  confined to tactical roles in communications and sales.

Here’s a take from MarketingProfs.com that suggests ways CMOs can elevate their (and their organization’s) clout.

 Marketing executives have an image problem, and it begins with the very definition of “CMO.”

CMO power is the ability to influence allocation of resources and other major strategic decisions within the top management team.

“We see CMOs get stuck in a pure communications role versus one that is at the heart of the business.”

Indeed, failure seems to infect the CMO suite, with the average tenure of chief marketing officers being less than two years.   

So, how does a CMO amass power”?

In his most recent study, Professor Mahajan (UT-Austin) identified four other ways CMOs can gain power:

1. Articulate a company vision in the face of industry instability.

When business is a roller-coaster ride, top management teams better appreciate the market and consumer perspectives of the CMO.

“Vision needs to be articulated.”

2. Lead innovation.

“The key to success, in many cases, is being able to position yourself as an agent of transformation.”

3. Personify the voice of marketing experience in the C-suite.

It’s hard for CMOs to feel the love when others on the executive team think they could do it better.

4. Take bottom-line responsibility for sales.

Marketing has generally been granted long-term accountability rather than responsibility for quarterly results.  Mahajan found that CMOs with bottom-line responsibility wielded more power than pure marketing or communications executives

Ken’s Take: Points 1 to 3 are blah, blah, blah. Focus on point number 4.  Without conspicuos bottom line attentiveness, marketing execs will invariability lack credibility and clout.  You have to be taking the heat if you want a seat at the kitchen table,

>> Latest Posts

scream. Scream! SCREAM !!!!

August 11, 2011

Earlier this week the HomaFiles said:

My family often recounts the stories of our family vacations being interrupted or cut short when a business crisis cropped up.

That was a price to be paid as a biz exec.

So, I shake my head in wonderment.

Might have expected that the President would call the Congress back from their August vacation for an emergency session to attack the debt-downgrade crisis.

Not so.

And, there doesn’t seem to be any public outrage.

Why?

I may scream later this month when Obama heads off for his annual Hyannis Port vacation.

Here’s the final straw:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama will vacation with his family in Martha’s Vineyard at the end of this month as he’s done in years past, the White House said Wednesday, despite the weak economy and negotiations on the nation’s debt problem.

Press secretary Jay Carney defended Obama’s plans to take a break even as he’s pledged urgent action on those issues.

“I don’t think Americans out there would begrudge that notion that the president would spend some time with his family,” Carney said.

For the record, I begrudge our Slacker-in-Chief taking time off during this financial crisis.

I repeat: when I was in business, I had many vacations (and holidays) interrupted, shortened or cancelled when crises (or time-sensitive opportunities) cropped up.

It was simply part of the job description and responsibilities.

And, suffice to say, none of the crises that cost me vacation days were were anything close to the magnitude of what Obama has created and is facing now.

So, as I promised, I’m SCREAMING !!!

And, I may scream again when I see …

image

This would be no way to run a business … and, certainly, no way to run a country.

But, he wouldn’t know that I guess … since he’s never run anything.

Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead & the pic

>> Latest Posts

"Timmy, you’re doing a heckuva job"

August 10, 2011

During the Katrina fiasco, Bush gaffed by saying to the overwhelmed head of FEMA: “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job”

Over the weekend – after the U.S.’s first ever debt downgrade — President Obama asked Treasury Secretary to stay on until the election.

Is it just me, or was it Obama’s Brownie moment?

>> Latest Posts

Timmy shelves the sale of GM shares … for now, at least.

August 10, 2011

from the WSJ:

The Obama administration has put on hold plans to sell the rest of its stake in GM because the auto maker’s shares have slumped this year.

image

The U.S. Treasury aimed to sell more of its 26.5% stake in GM by August or September.

GM stock would need to hit $53 a share for the U.S government to break even on its $50 billion bailout of the auto maker.

At $30 a share, the U.S. would lose more than $10 billion on its $50 billion bailout of GM.

So far this year, GM stock is down 31%.

On Tuesday, GM stock closed at $25.54, up 97 cents.

OUCH !

>> Latest Posts

Marketers reshape how college teams price & sell tickets …

August 10, 2011

Punch line: Colleges that are able to fill their football stadiums and basketball arenas are starting to price differentially – charging more for “hot” games.

But, the bulk of colleges are having trouble filling seats and are outsourcing ticket sales to aggressive outside organizations (think, “Boiler Room”)

* * * * *
Excerpted from USA Today

The “Haves” – Differentiated Pricing

Schools with overwhelming ticket demand are leveraging it as never before in an effort to boost revenue.

Notre Dame, for example, is varying football ticket prices by opponent for the first time this season. Games against Michigan State, Southern California and Boston College are $80; that’s $10 more than tickets for games against South Florida, Air Force and Navy.

The “Have Nots” – Outsourced Selling

“For years and years, if you put up enough billboards and sent out enough brochures, people would show up” at college games.

There not only was no need to be pushy in order to sell tickets to college games, there also was a fear of offending donors and deep-rooted fan bases by allowing non-profit colleges to have even the appearance of a chase-every-possible-dollar, professional sports business.

But, “colleges, for many years, were almost in an arms race for who could have the most seats — and they were able to fill those seats, for the most part. That has changed. … Most schools across the country have an issue with their football and/or their basketball seating demand vs. their seating capacity.”

Observers attribute this supply-demand imbalance to a combination of the tough economy, high gas prices and advances in high-definition television that have improved home viewing.

An empty seat leaves money on the table and  is a cancer to your brand.”

Hence, the rise in outsourcing

The number of schools outsourcing proactive, full-time ticket-selling operations to companies like Aspire, IMG, and Monumental S&E has recently skyrocketed.

The typical setup: 12 to 14 full-time staffers working on commission, each making 80 to 100 phone calls a day from a database of school-connected names.

“Get potential customers to talk about their love of the school. Seek referrals and new leads. Above all, make sales — and get psyched about making sales. Every time a staffer makes a sale, they ring a bell. Staffers who don’t ring the bell enough get fired.

  • Note: Georgetown uses Monumental Sports and Entertainment

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The “Tea Party” downgrade ? … au contraire.

August 9, 2011

Blame the messenger (S&P). Blame the catalyst )Tea Party). Accept no blame )O&G).  Stall.  Offer no plan.

That seems to be the game plan.

Rick Santelli of CNBC – whose rant started the Tea Party movement – has hit the nail on the head again:

In the end, in the end we need to address problems we know exist. A Treasury Secretary or a President should be out here not fighting S&P, not grabbing the other coach and slapping him around, taking the umpire behind the barn. He should be getting the team psyched to overcome.

See I remember I had a professor in college. I wrote a great paper. Could never please this guy. But it made me better.

Don’t get caught up in the minutia. All this BS.

We’re better than this. We need to prove it.

We’re off the track. Whether we’re better than some other country or not, the real issue is we’re on the wrong path.

Blame the Tea Party? Geez,

If it wasn’t for the Tea Party, they would have passed the debt ceiling thumbs up, we would have been rated BBB.

* * * * *
Best headlines so far:

  • BARACKALYPSE NOW
  • OBAMAGEDON

A must read:

>> Latest Posts

The ratings downgrade … and Pascal’s wager.

August 9, 2011

One of the few things I remember from Philosophy 101 is Pascal’s Wager.

In a nutshell, it says that God may or may not exist … and we all have the choice to live righteously or sinfully.

Naturally, that creates a 2 X 2 matrix …

image

What’s Pascal got to do with the debt downgrade?

Well, the President can choose to treat S&P’s downgrade as truth and start living a more righteous (debt-reduced) life … or, treat S&P as demonic frauds and keep living a sinful (free-spending) life.

Based on yesterday’s speech, the President is choosing the latter course.

Damn …

>> Latest Posts

Down 10 !

August 9, 2011

From the most recent CNN Poll ,,,

Obama’s approval rating has slid 10 points to 44%

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Only 1 in 3 approve of his handling of the economy … down 20 points from high water mark.

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Ken’s Take: Don’t you wonder who those 1 in 3 are?

>> Latest Posts

Debt downgraded … Congress leaves town … huh?

August 8, 2011

My family often recounts the stories of our family vacations being interrupted or cut short when a business crisis cropped up.

That was a price to be paid as a biz exec.

So, I shake my head in wonderment.

Might have expected that the President would call the Congress back from their August vacation for an emergency session to attack the debt-downgrade crisis.

Not so.

And, there doesn’t seem to be any public outrage.

Why?

I may scream later this month when Obama heads off for his annual Hyannis Port vacation.

>> Latest Posts

Re: “Uncertainty” … the Donkey in the living room.

August 8, 2011

I’m officially tired of the White House spinners.

Rather than admitting what everybody else already knows – that Obama wanted the debt deal to run until 2013 so it wouldn’t get raised again until the election – they continue to say that the debt ceiling had to be raised to reduce uncertainty for businesses … and extended  to  2013 to – you guessed it – reduce uncertainty and get businesses back to hiring.

The reality – based on my casual chats with biz execs – is that the only uncertainty that matters to them is whether Obama gets reelected or not.

If he does, then they’ll have certainty … certainty that ObamaCare and anti-business rhetoric and policies will be in place for an additional 4 years … dragging any hope of a real recovery out to 2016.

If he doesn’t get re-elected, hiring can start again in 2013.

But, nobody wants to talk about the donkey in the middle of the living room, for fear that they get the tanning salon treatment from the Administration.

>> Latest Posts

The rich get richer … and, oh yeah, so do the poor.

August 6, 2011

Punch line: President Obama has has oft-repeated that  “For many years, middle class Americans have been working harder, yet not enjoying their fair share of the fruits of a growing economy.”

Au contraire, mon ami.

But a new working paper titled “A “Second Opinion” on the Economic Health of the American Middle Class”  NBER and Cornell researchers provides new evidence that the growth in after-tax household income has been substantial for all economic strata.

Specifically, by taking into account previously unmeasured shifts in household size and the tax units in them, taxes paid, transfer payments received, and the increasing importance of fringe benefits, the researchers found that:

  • The growth in after-tax household income for the lower income strata was about 25% between 1979 and 2009.
  • The growth in after-tax household income for middle income strata was about 35% between 1979 and 2009.
  • The growth in after-tax household income for the highest income strata was about 50% between 1979 and 2009.

Bottom line: a slowly rising tide has lifted all boats … albeit at different rates.


Source: Prof Mark Perry

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How many Chevy Volts sold in July?

August 5, 2011

According to Electric Cars Reports …

Despite thousands of dollars of government rebates, GM’s Chevrolet Division sold just 125 Volts in July — the worst monthly total for the Volt since it was introduced last year.

Birth-to-date, GM has sold only 3,196 units …Haven’t heard much about the Volt lately – have you?

>> Latest Posts

Canada adding more jobs than the U.S. … eh?

August 5, 2011

Only 18,000 net new jobs were created in the U.S. in June.

To put it in perspective: Canada created more net new jobs last month (28,400) than the U.S. did — with nine times Canada’s population.

* * * * *
Drilling down …

  • For college graduates overall, the unemployment rate stands at 4.4%
  • The unemployment rate for recent college grads is 6.4% … compared to 3.5 percent four years ago. .
  • The unemployment rate for those with only a high school degree is 10%.
  • That rate more than triples — to 14.3%— for high school dropouts.
  • And teens, now competing more than usual with experienced and educated jobseekers, are experiencing 24.5% unemployment.

Source: The Hill

* * * * *

Ken’s Take: Maybe change, but not much hope.

What ever happened to the Administration’s “pivot to jobs”?

>> Latest Posts