Archive for October 30th, 2012

A 269 to 269 scenario … how a tie could happen.

October 30, 2012

WARNING: This is for hard core political junkies.

In a prior post – Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President? – I showed that if Romney bagged 269 electoral votes he would become President and that Biden probably would be named VP.

I said the 269 tie was mathematically possible, but didn’t show how.

Martin Leborgne (MSB MBA ’03), a loyal Homa Files reader, replied with a fascinating election analysis that lays out a 269-269 scenario … and a couple of related strategy variations.

Great work, Martin.

* * * * *
Martin Leborgne’s Analysis

The 269/269 electoral split is becoming more and more of a possibility.

Not saying a high probability option … just more and more of an option.

To do that:
1) Romney has to win FL & NC. (fine they’re leaning that way)
2) Mitt also take AZ, while Barack takes NM. (again, leaning that way)
3) Obama wins OH & MI – which as you said in a previous post is relatively likely.
4) Wisconsin goes to Obama
5) VA goes to Mitt
6) CO, IA, and NV also go to Mitt. (We’ll come back to these three.)

Essentially:
Mitt HAS to win CO, IA, NV, VA and FL just to push a 269 tie.
Assuming OH & Wisc goes blue.

So to win:
Romney has to hit those 5 states AND steal one other state.

Obama has to take just two of those states to win -> Wisc + one other.

Ohio certainly changes the landscape of what I’m writing here.

====
BUT if Ohio goes Red: (Again, assuming FL is red) states in play are:
VA, Wisc, Col, IA, and Vegas-Baby!
44 unallocated. BO: 241, MR: 253.

To become the Leader of the Free World with OH and FL red:
MR has to win: 3 out of those 5, ORRRR VA + Wisconsin.
BO has to win: VA + Wisc + one other, ORRRR 4 of those 5.

Punch lines:
Game over of FL is blue.
OH def changes the landscape.
If OH & Wisc go Obama, CO, IA, NV, and VA are a must win for just a shot (269 split here)
If OH & Wisc go Romney, MR will have 263, and will need 7 votes out of NV-6, CO-9, IA-6, and VA-13.

The no-kidding moment:
Things are a lot safer for Romney with OH in Red.

VA(13) and WISC(10) are must-must-must wins.

So with VA and Wisconsin going Red, does Mitt plan to go for OH or concede Ohio and go for 2/3 between IA, NV, and CO?

My thinking: Concede OH. Its uphill. Focus on VA and Wisc  just to make this is a close one.

Then focus on IA and NV.

* * * * *

Whew!  Thanks, Martin.

Any other scenarios out there?

>> Latest Posts

Posted in 2012 Campaign, Electoral College | 1 Comment »

Obama besting Romney in early voting … oh, really?

October 30, 2012

The narrative in the mainstream media the past couple of weeks is that the Obama machine is building an enormous lead over Romney in early voting.

Well, Gallup just released a poll on early voters that seems to debunk the notion.

Here are the key findings …

* * * * *
Only 15% of registered voters  have already voted

… another 18% said they plan to vote early

… and 2/3s said they’ll vote on election day.

image

* * * * *
Early voting in the battleground Midwest (13%) is slightly below the national average (15%)

… the uncontested Obama-West leads the nation with 1/2  voting early.

image

* * * * *
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early

…. Independents are most waiting for election day.

image

* * * * * *

Of those who have voted early, Romney edges Obama 52 to 46.

image

>> Latest Posts

Tags:
Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 30, 2012

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

* * * * *

Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

image

IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

>> Latest Posts

Tags:, ,
Posted in 2012 Campaign, poll, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

New study: Don’t blame the immigrants.

October 30, 2012

Punch line: While many poor immigrants from Latin America have been leaving the United States because of an inability to find decent jobs,

American workers might want them back.

This is because new studies have found that immigrants have a positive impact on the economy in the long run.

* * * * *
Excerpted from New York Times Economix’ blog’s, “Immigration and American Jobs”

immigrant_workers

Of all the economic dynamics buffeting the American middle class, immigration might seem the easiest to explain: as millions of poor immigrants from Latin America poured illegally into the country … they displaced American Workers from their jobs and undercut their wages.

But this typical explanation of the impact of immigration is mostly wrong.

The most recent empirical studies conclude that the impact is slight … they suggest that immigrants have had, at most, a small negative impact on the wages of Americans who compete with them most directly.

Meanwhile, the research has found that immigrants … have a big positive impact on the economy over the long run, bolstering the profitability of American firms, reducing the prices of some products and services … and creating more opportunities for investment and jobs.

Those nostalgic for strawberry fields harvested by well-paid Americans ignore the fact that without the cheap foreign labor, there might not be American strawberry fields.

Edit by JDC

 

>> Latest Posts

Posted in Immigration, Labor Economics | Leave a Comment »