Archive for March 30th, 2020

Do ventilated COVID patients recover or die?

March 30, 2020

Ultimate Medical Hackathon: How Fast Can We Design And Deploy An ...

Medical data modelers are indicating the need for tens-of-thousands (or hundreds-of-thousands) of ventilators.

Gov. Cuomo has understandably been clamoring for 40,000 ventilators … just for New York.

Ventilators are being redeployed from hospitals in low virus-infected areaa to the nation’s hot spots.

President Trump has emptied the national stockpile of ventilators,  enlisted corporate volunteers (e.g. Ford, GE) to produce ventilators and activated the DPA to get GM into the ventilator business.

Innovative med-tech companies  and university researchers are making ventilators using 3-D copiers.  Researchers at the University of Minnesota have designed a basic  MacGyver-like ventilator that is being prototype produced.

Sounds like a reasonable medical priority  … and impressive multi-sourced response.  I’m all in for going full throttle on ventilators.

That said, I’m curious …

The implied underlying assumption is that ventilators will save a lot of lives.

Is that a valid assumption?

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March 30: COVID Tracker <= UPDATE

March 30, 2020

As I indicated on this morning’s update, the Daily Death statistics seemed to be too good to be true. Apparently, some states were later than usual reporting.  The GOOD NEWS: Daily New Deaths did drop in NY and ROC (Rest of the Country). One day doesn’t make a trend, but it’s a nice number to report.

Total Deaths to Date  Worldometer
2,592 Yesterday (March 29) 
2,229  March 28
1,704  March 27
1.301  March 26
1.036  March 25
   784  March 24

Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
363  Yesterday (March 29)
525   March 28
403   March 27
268   March 26
252   March 25
225   March 24

Daily New Deaths DOWN
Updated Worldometer data 

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State-by-State Data

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The plural of “anecdotes” isn’t “data” … or is it?

March 30, 2020

Sometimes, anecdotes are sufficient to inform decisions.  Hydroxychloroquine may be one of those cases.
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In my business analytics course, I used to preach the conventional wisdom that “anecdotes aren’t data” … and “make decisions based on data, not anecdotes”.

Those are good principles, but they don’t always hold.

And, when I was operating in the real world, I didn’t always follow them.

More often than not, business decisions must be made despite incomplete and sometimes conflicting data.

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March 30: COVID Tracker

March 30, 2020

Total Deaths to Date  Worldometer
2,489  Today
2,229  March 29
1,704  March 28
1.301  March 27
1.036  March 26
   784  March 25

Daily New Deaths  Worldometer
265  Today
525   March 29
403   March 28
268   March 27
252   March 26
225   March 25

Daily New Deaths DOWN
Too good to be true? Reporting?

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State-by-State Data

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