Archive for October 20th, 2020

Even more unsettled (and unsettling) science…

October 20, 2020

After the WHO & CDC have done a couple of u-turns (and full 360s) on masks, what’s the current “truth”?

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Let’s start with a basic question, how is COVID transmitted?

Initially, the science community (think: Fauci channeling the WHO and China’s disinformation) told us not to worry … that COVID was not transmitted human-to-human.

Then, we were told that it was transmitted human to human (to human) … via large droplets that contaminate surfaces (think: countertops and doorknobs) and hands … and transfer by handshaking and face-touching.

We bought into that … we started washing our hands and cleared store shelves of hand sanitizers and surface disinfectants (which are still in short supply).

Then, we were told that COVID is transmitted via large droplets that are delivered when infected people cough, sneeze and spray-talk on us.

That conclusion ushered in social distancing and masks went from “won’t help, might hurt” to “best line of defense”.  Most recently, CDC Director Redfield — apparently auditioning for a role as the village idiot –testified that wearing a mask is more of a viral deterrent than vaccines.

Then, a short-lived CDC guidance revision threatened to upset a big apple cart.

Here’s the back story…

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Election: Odds & Polls

October 20, 2020

Biden +22.7 in odds, +8.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.6   Trump 38.9   Lead 22.7

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.4   Lead 8.9
Undecided 6.3

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.1  Trump 45.0  Lead 4.1
Undecided 5.9
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 89  Trump 12  Lead 77

Oct. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 20, 2020

225,174 Deaths-to-Date

400 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 738    (peak 2.229 April 23)

50,024  New Cases
> 7-day average  55,494

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Details below…

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