Archive for October 30th, 2020

Oct. 30: Election – Battlegrounds

October 30, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.0  Trump  45.8  +3.2

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has the race tied in FL, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has WI in a statistical tie, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

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If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … counting will drag on

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 30: Election – National Polls

October 30, 2020

The devil is in the details !
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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 43.7   Lead 7.4

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Takeaways: (1) Biden over 50% (2) Gap is narrowing, but still formidable

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How formidable?

Let’s drill down on the RCP numbers …

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Oct. 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 30, 2020

234,106 Deaths-to-Date

976 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 832       (peak 2.229 April 23)

83,866  New Cases
> 7-day average  74,983

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Details below…

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