Archive for October 21st, 2020

America’s political polarization in 4 charts …

October 21, 2020

It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.

Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Biden.

I expect that Obama will lay blame for the political polarization on Trump and his band of ignorant deplorables.

In anticipation, let’s look at some inconvenient facts and put them in perspective…

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Way back in 2014, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd observed:

Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.

The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.

Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.

Todd’s observations were true then, and they’re true now.

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The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.

One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.

Based on the latest Pew data (from 2017), here’s where we stand:

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What the chart means …

Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.

Less than 10 percent in each party overlaps ideologically with the other side.

That’s where we are.

How did we get here?

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Huntergate won’t change any voters minds…

October 21, 2020

… but it may swing the election.
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Here’s my take:

1. Biden made an unforced campaign error by  trading on his son Beau’s memory when he tried to tag Trump with being insulting to the military.  That move opened the door to dragging son Hunter into the conversation. Family members became fair game.

2. For sure, Biden is guilty of allowing his VP influence to be compromised (by Hunter) … and probably profited from the deals personally.

3. Most (all?) voters assume that most (all?) elected officials trade on their positions and influence for personal gain.

4. So, few (no?) Biden voters will jump off his campaign train just because he’s revealed to be a typical political sleaze … especially since most voters think the transgressions — even those with China — are no harm, no foul … and, because Biden was “just trying to help his wayward son.”.

But…

Huntergate has got to be weighing heavily on Joe’s already diminishing state of mind.

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Oct. 21: Election Polls & Odds

October 21, 2020

Headlines: Trump rallying, Biden bunkering … Hunter mess breaking thru MSM-Big Tech censorship … Obama called in to help
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Biden +8.6 in national polls
+4.0 in battlegrounds
60/40 in betting odds 

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 42.5   Lead 8.6
Undecided 6.4

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Latest Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 43.3  Lead 6.3
Undecided 6.3
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.3  Trump 45.3  Lead 4.0
Undecided 5.4
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RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.9   Trump 38.7   Lead 23.2

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

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Oct. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 21, 2020

226,053 Deaths-to-Date

831 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 735    (peak 2.229 April 23)

59,887  New Cases
> 7-day average  56,956

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Details below…

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