186,789 Deaths-to-Date
888 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 945 (peak 2.229 April 23)
39,656 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,671
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Details below…
Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category
Aug. 30: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 30, 2020Aug. 29: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 29, 2020185,865 Deaths-to-Date
1,069 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 952 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,560 New Cases
> 7-day average 40,287
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Details below…
Aug. 28: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 28, 2020184,433 Deaths-to-Date
780 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,001 (peak 2.229 April 23)
36,713 New Cases
> 7-day average 40,700
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Details below…
Aug. 27: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 27, 2020183,533 Deaths-to-Date
1169 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,028 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40718 New Cases
> 7-day average 41933
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Details below…
Aug. 26: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 26, 2020182,348 Deaths-to-Date
1,235 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,040 (peak 2.229 April 23)
39,021 New Cases
> 7-day average 42,538
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Details below…
Aug. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 25, 2020181,113 Deaths-to-Date
509 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,057 (peak 2.229 April 23)
41,448 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,236
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Details below…
Aug. 24: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 24, 2020180,604 Deaths-to-Date
430 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,068 (peak 2.229 April 23)
32,718 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,117
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Details below…
Aug. 23: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 23, 2020180,174 Deaths-to-Date
974 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,081 (peak 2.229 April 23)
43,829 New Cases
> 7-day average 43,706
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Details below…
Aug. 22: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 22, 2020179,200 Deaths-to-Date
1,170 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,101 (peak 2.229 April 23)
50,455 New Cases
> 7-day average 45091
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
Let’s end the week on a high note…
August 21, 2020B of A says “the Coronavirus is rolling over”.
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If you’ve been following our Daily C-19 Data Dashboard, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the 7-day moving average of confirmed cases has fallen by over 30% since its peak on July 23.
That’s good news but the case counts– as we oft repeat — are a very fuzzy-math number since they are impacted by the number and mix of people being tested.
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Positivity Rate
Dr. Birx says to watch the percentage of people testing positive — the so-called “positivity rate”.
It’s currently at 6.5% — about 1/3 of the rate during the NY-area outbreak.
That’s also good news but, again, “positivity” is an equivocal metric since it’s impacted by the mix of people being tested.
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So, the B of A analysts say to focus on hospitalization rates.
Aug. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 21, 2020177,424 Deaths-to-Date
1,090 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,009 (peak 2.229 April 23)
45,341 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,442
(below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
Aug. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 20, 2020176,337 Deaths-to-Date
1,283 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,031 (peak 2.229 April 23)
44,957 New Cases
> 7-day average 47,701 (below 14-day average since July 26)
> 14-day average 50,810
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Details below…
About Cuomo’s “beautiful” response to the coronavirus…
August 19, 2020Hardly a model of “flattening the curve”
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Talk about Chutzpah…
NY has amassed over 30,000 covid-related deaths (about 20% of the US total) … and, almost 1,700 deaths per million residents (2nd only to NJ’s 1,800; almost quadruple Florida’s 455).
Cuomo was bold enough to commemorate New York’s death toll (chart above) on an anatomically accurate “Victory Poster” (image below). Note the shape of the deaths’ curve.
Today, I want to make a very simple (and irrefutable point)….
Aug. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 19, 2020175,065 Deaths-to-Date
1,349 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,072 (peak 2.229 April 23)
43,906 New Cases
> 7-day average 48,988
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Details below…
Aug. 18: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 18, 2020173,716 Deaths-to-Date
589 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40,612 New Cases
> 7-day average 50,222
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Details below…
Aug. 17: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 17, 2020173,128 Deaths-to-Date
522 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,073 (peak 2.229 April 23)
36,843 New Cases
> 7-day average 51,410
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Details below…
Aug. 16: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 16, 2020172,606 Deaths-to-Date
1,071 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,077 (peak 2.229 April 23)
53,523 New Cases
> 7-day average 52,983
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Details below…
Aug. 15: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 15, 2020171,496 Deaths-to-Date
1,081 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,060 (peak 2.229 April 23)
59,915 New Cases
> 7-day average 53,079
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Details below…
Aug. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 14, 2020170,360 Deaths-to-Date
1,229 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,079 (peak 2.229 April 23)
54,148 New Cases
> 7-day average 53,454
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Details below…
Aug. 13: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 13, 2020169,121 Deaths-to-Date
1,376 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074 (peak 2.229 April 23)
53,972 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,092
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Details below…
Aug. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 12, 2020167,562 Deaths-to-Date
1,370 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,050 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,539 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,403
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Details below…
Aug. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 11, 2020166,161 Deaths-to-Date
538 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,932 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,344
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Details below…
The good C-19 news that the MSM will likely ignore…
August 10, 2020Data indicates that the worst may be behind us … at least for now.
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The 7-day average for new cases has been trending down for more than two weeks, from more than 67,000 on July 22 to 47,849 on Sunday.
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There are 49,039 Covid-related patients currently hospitalized. Hospitalizations are trending down and are below the 60,000 peaks reached on April 21 and July 27.
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The 7-day average for new reported deaths has also apparently peaked., trending from 1,246 on July 31 to the current 1,036, which is less than half of the peak reached on April 23 (2,229).
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The arrows are pointing in the right direction!
Aug. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 10, 2020165,617 Deaths-to-Date
535 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,036 (peak 2.229 April 23)
47,849 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,289
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Details below…
Aug. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 9, 2020165,070 Deaths-to-Date
980 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,025 (peak 2.229 April 23)
54.199 New Cases
> 7-day average 54,459
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Details below…
Aug. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 8, 2020164,076 Deaths-to-Date
1,272 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,047 (peak 2.229 April 23)
62,541 New Cases
> 7-day average 55,063
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Details below…
How many people are walking around infected with Covid-19?
August 7, 2020Finally, some C-19 “prevalence” estimates…
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Loyal readers know that I’ve been frustrated by the lack of practical, personally-relevant data that the public health “experts” have been gathering, analyzing and disseminating.
For example, I’d like to know how likely I am to bump into a person who is infected with C-19 if I leave my house.
Reasonable question, right?
In infectious disease speak, that number is called the “prevalence rate” … the percentage of people in an area who are infectious-likely at a specific point in time.
Current testing procedures don’t answer the question (see: Why is COVID testing still so haphazard?) … so, the “experts” fixate on metrics that are muddled and potentially misleading (see: Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”).
Finally, I’ve stumbled on some “machine learning” analyses that take a stab at answering my question: What’s the Covid prevalence rate?
OK, let’s get to work…
Aug. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 7, 2020162,804 Deaths-to-Date
1,203 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,074 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,611 New Cases
> 7-day average 56,258
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Details below…
C-19: State-level Cases, Deaths, Rates
August 6, 2020Today, let’s drill down for some perspective…
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First, as oft-reported, NY & NJ lead the list for total deaths … the 2 states represent about 30% of the US total.
The Top 10 states account for 2/3’s of the US total.
Let’s dig deeper…
Aug. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 6, 2020161,601 Deaths-to-Date
1,319 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,109 (peak 2.229 April 23)
56,148 New Cases
> 7-day average 57,681
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Details below…
Gov. Cuomo says to follow the data, so…
August 5, 2020Let’s compare NY (and its North East neighbors) to the spiking Sun Belt states.
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According to Gov. Cuomo, the fawning MSM and Dr. Anthony “First Pitch” Fauci:
Gov. Cuomo did a stellar job managing the covid crisis … and, all of the Sun Belt governors (except CA’s Gov. Newsome) are reckless dufasses.
Really?
I hate to ruin a good narrative with data, but since Gov. Cuomo says to follow the numbers…
Below is a current Covid recap for 4 North East states (NY, NJ, MA, CT) … 4 Sun Belt states (TX, FL, AZ, GA) … and California.
click to enlarge chart
Here are a couple of takeaways….
Aug. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 5, 2020160,215 Deaths-to-Date
1,287 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,128 (peak 2.229 April 23)
52,055 New Cases
> 7-day average 59,220
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Details below…
Aug. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 4, 2020158,929 Deaths-to-Date
568 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,131 (peak 2.229 April 23)
48,622 New Cases
> 7-day average 61,030
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Details below…
Have Covid cases peaked?
August 3, 2020Let’s drill down on some numbers today…
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For the past 2 or 3 weeks, the number of new cases reported each day seems to have peaked … maybe plateaued, maybe turned the corner and is starting to decline.
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Over the same time period, the daily death rate has trended up from its previous trough … or, as the MSM media likes to say “in recent weeks, the daily death rate has catastrophically doubled from 500 per day to over 1,000 per day”.
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Putting those numbers into context, the daily case counts have more than doubled since the prior peak in mid-April … while daily deaths have hovered around 50% of their mid-April level.
In numbers: New cases were running at about 30,000 per day in mid-April … and there were over 2,000 new deaths each day … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 6.7%.
During the recent spike, cases have been running at about 60,000 per day … and new deaths each day have been averaging about 1,000 … a ratio of deaths to cases of about 1.7%.
That’s a 75% drop in the deaths to cases rate.
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Keep a watchful eye on the daily death rate …
Aug.3: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 3, 2020158,365 Deaths-to-Date
467 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,126 (peak 2.229 April 23)
49,038 New Cases
> 7-day average 62,880
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Details below…
Aug. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard
August 2, 2020157,898 Deaths-to-Date
1,151 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,124 (peak 2.229 April 23)
58,429 New Cases
> 7-day average 63,893
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Details below…
Aug.1 C-19 Data Dashboard
August 1, 2020156,747 Deaths-to-Date
1,462 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,089 (peak 2.229 April 23)
70,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 65,177
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Details below…
July 31: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 31, 2020155,285 Deaths-to-Date
1,465 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,051 (peak 2.229 April 23)
68,569 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,192
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Details below…
July 30: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 30, 2020153,840 Deaths-to-Date
1,520 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,004 (peak 2.229 April 23)
66,921 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,850
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Details below…
July 29: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 29, 2020152,320 Deaths-to-Date
1,245 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 964
64,729 New Cases
> 7-day average 66,871
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Details below…
July 28: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 28, 2020150,444 Deaths-to-Date
595 Daily New Deaths
> 7-day average 946
61,571 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 69,186
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Details below…
July 27: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 27, 2020149,849 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
451 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 93&2
56,130 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,341
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below…
July 26: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 26, 2020149,398 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
906 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 932
67,413 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,648
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below…
July 25: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 25, 2020149,490 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,193 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 914
78,009 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,054
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below…
Birx: “Key metric that I watch is the positivity rate”
July 24, 2020In yesterday’s post, I indicated that I was very disappointed with Dr. Brix’s answers in a TV interview with Bret Baer.
One particular question & answer still has me scratching my head:
What is the key statistic that you track?
Birx’s answer: Test positivity (i.e. ratio of positive test results to total tests). It’s the most sensitive indicator and best early warning.
With all due respect, I think that Dr. Birx is confusing “positivity” with “prevalence”.
I’m way more interested in the latter prevalence: the percentage of the population that is currently infected with the virus.
Prevalence indicates how widespread the virus is at any point in time in a selected locale.
That gives me a sense of how safe it is to leave my house: How many people am I likely to run into who have the virus and may be contagious.
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Determining prevalence requires periodic random sampling of the population.
That’s not what’s being done now.
A representative sample of the local populations is not being tested.
Why is that a problem?
The positivity rate (Birx’s key metric) is a function of who shows up to be tested.
If only people with covid-like symptoms are being tested, then of course, the positivity rate will be high.
If there’s a groundswell of asymptomatic people, the positivity rate will likely be relatively low.
My hunch: The testing “sample” is skewed to people with symptoms.
In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).
So, positivity is, at best, a very crude measure of prevalence.
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To that point, keep in mind…
July 24: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 24, 2020147,297 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,114 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 882
68,278 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,623
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below…
July 23: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 23, 2020146,183 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,239 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 860
71,907 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,353
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below…
July 22: C-10 Data Dashboard
July 22, 2020144,944 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
1,113 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 829
66,933 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,322
Data Source: Worldometer
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Details below… (more…)
The Sun Belt states vs. New York and its neighbors…
July 21, 2020We’ve been emphasizing that while the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled since mid-April, daily reported new deaths have arguably stabilized at about half of their mid-April level.
Today, let’s get a bit more granular and drill down to the states’ level… where the data is VERY interesting.
July 21: C-19 Data Dashboard
July 21, 2020143,825 Deaths-to-Date Worldometer
538 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 797
62,656 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,130
Data Source: Worldometer
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For details, keep reading… (more…)
The Homa Files 