Data Source: Worldometer
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Cumulative Deaths
143,289 Worldometer
===============
412 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 786
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 July 17
> 7-day average 57,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,279 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 68,535
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Data Source: Worldometer
=============
Cumulative Deaths
142,877 Worldometer
===============
783 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 782
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 58,000 July 17
> 7-day average 55,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 63,259 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,345
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
No question, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has skyrocketed since mid-June.
During the same time period, daily new deaths reported have leveled off … typically ranging between 500 and 1,000.
The chart below displays the 7-day moving average of daily reported new cases and deaths … indexed to their levels in mid-April when daily new deaths previously peaked (2,824 on April 21) and daily new cases were running about 30,000.
![image_thumb[18]](https://homafiles.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/image_thumb18.png "image_thumb[18]")
Data Source: Worldometer
My take:
Even factoring a lag time between case diagnoses and deaths, it doesn’t appear that the higher case counts are driving a commensurate spike in deaths.
Cumulative Deaths
142,054 Worldometer
===============
939 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 July 16
> 7-day average 54,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 74,987 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 67,325
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
141,125 Worldometer
===============
965 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 758
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 57,000 Current
> 7-day average 54,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 73,388 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 66,868
> Highest day 73,388 July 16
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
140,160 Worldometer
===============
1,017 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 757
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 56,000 Current
> 7-day average 52,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 71,750 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 63,693
> Highest day 71,750 July 15
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
“The paper of record is, more and more, the record of those living in a distant galaxy”
=============
Bari Weiss, a high-profile editor and writer for the New York Times opinion section, resigned Monday, citing what she said was unchecked bullying from colleagues and depicting the news organization as a place where the free exchange of ideas was no longer welcome. Source
Ms. Weiss bills herself as a non-ideological centrist. A position that seems to be borne out in media reactions to her resignation.
Liberal media sentiment: “Good riddance”; Conservative media: “Nice try, Dani”.
What’s noteworthy is the scathing resignation letter that Ms. Weiss wrote and published online.
Here are some snippets….
Cumulative Deaths
139,143 Worldometer
===============
895 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 739
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average 48,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,594 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 63,693
> Highest day 68,000 July 10
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive)
=============
A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.
The obvious conclusion: avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.
In a prior post we explained why super-spreader people are so difficult to identify … and offered 2 principles: (1) Consider everybody that you run into as being a GUPI (Guilty Until Proven Innocent), and (2) avoid high risk activities and places where GUPIs hang out.
Let’s get practical on those principles…
Cumulative Deaths
138,753 Worldometer
===============
460 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 753
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 54,000 Current
> 7-day average 48,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 65,488 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 62,243
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Avoid them to improve your odds of staying COVID-free (and alive)
=============
A consensus seems to be emerging among researchers that the bulk of coronavirus infections happen in “clusters” and can be traced to a small number of “super-spreading” people, events, venues and activities.
The obvious conclusion: Avoid them to minimize the chance that you get infected.
Today, let’s drill down on the people who may be super-spreaders…
Cumulative Deaths
137,746 Worldometer
===============
382 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 746
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 53,000 Current
> 7-day average 46,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 58,349 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 60,114
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
137,405 Worldometer
===============
734 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 727
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average 44,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 61719 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 57,960
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
136,671 Worldometer
===============
849 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 653
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 52,000 Current
> 7-day average 42,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 71787 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 55,597
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
135,822 Worldometer
===============
960 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 621
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 44,000 Current
> 7-day average 40,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 61,067 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 53,186
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Cumulative Deaths
134,862 Worldometer
===============
892 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 582
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 43,000 Current
> 7-day average 40,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 64,848 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 82,896
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
Tip of the hat to Georgetown on this one.
=============
Last week, I did some reading re: the Herculean challenges facing colleges as they contemplate when and how to re-open.
In a nutshell, residence colleges face three major challenges:
One aspect of healthy campuses is instituting a comprehensive Covid testing program.
Many schools are rationalizing away the need for testing, arguing that tests aren’t sufficiently accurate and that they cost too much to administer. Source
That’s not the approach that Georgetown is taking…
Expanded Data Set:
Cases > Hospitalizations > Deaths
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Cumulative Deaths
133,972 Worldometer
===============
663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 552
==============
Currently Hospitalized
> 41,575 Current
> 7-day average 38,000
> April 22 peak 59,000
> June 21 low point 28,000
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 55,442 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 50,156
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
414 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 517
States reporting more than 25 New Deaths:
CA 76, TX 63, FL 46
===============
Cumulative Deaths
132,979 Worldometer
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 50,586 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 48,172
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
263 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
States reporting more than 20 New Deaths:
NY 33, FL 29, TX 27, NJ 22
===============
Cumulative Deaths
132,571 Worldometer
===============
Confirmed Cases
> 44.530 New Cases Worldometer
> 7-day average 46,675
> April 24 peak 36,291
> June 8 low point 17,414
688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643
============
Cumulative Deaths
132,101 Worldometer
Confirmed Cases
> 54,904 New Cases
> 7-day average 46,409
> 56,939 New Cases
> 7-day average 44,276
==============
688 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 643
============
Cumulative Deaths
131,477 Worldometer
IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29
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Key States Data
> 10 states reporting 22 or more new deaths
> Note high per capita DNDs in MA, LA & AZ
click to enlarge table
> 44,766 New Cases
> 7-day average 41118
Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group. Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).
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680 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 628
============
Cumulative Deaths
130,789 Worldometer
IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
175,168 by Oct 1 DOWN 3,938 on June 29
=============
Key States Data
> 10 states reporting 23 or more new deaths
> Note high per capita DNDs in AZ and SC
click to enlarge table
> 41,556 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,750
Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, mostly in Southern & Western states. The majority of the uptick is in the under 45 age group. Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).
==============
751 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 646
>
