Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and HAPPY NEW YEAR to all !
This short video was sent to me by a friend a couple of years ago
It really resonated with me, so I like to share it at Christmas time.
… back with you after the New Year
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click picture to launch ( best with audio on)
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Some pillars of management theory are weakening.
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Interesting article in The Economist asserts that “business gurus have lost touch with the world they seek to rule” and that “management theory is ripe for a reformation, especially at Business schools — the cathedrals of capitalism.”
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More specifically, the author argues that: “Management theories are organized around four basic ideas, repeated ad nauseam in every business book you read or business conference you attend, that bear almost no relation to reality.”
Here are some snippets on those four disputable basic ideas …
Maybe folks should consider the source.
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Big frenzy these days about fake news.
Though Facebook CEO Zuckerberg says that less than 1% of news postings are fake, the company is setting up a special truth-checking squad.
I find that interesting in a couple of respects.
First, getting one’s news via Facebook.
Really?
I find that scary.
But, not surprising since The WaPo reports a recent poll that “more than one in 10 young adults (ages 18-29) say they rely on “The Daily Show” or its now-departed spinoff, “The Colbert Report” for news about what’s going on in the world.”
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Pew Research reports similar findings … right around 10%.
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This raises as obvious questions …
Your answer says a lot about you.
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Before you look at the chart below, jot down the 3 or 4 web pages or channels/shows that you trust as your primary sources for news.
No cheating.
Done?
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OK, now check where your news sources fall along this ideological continuum crafted by Pew Research.
Your news sources align with your political ideology, right?
It’s a psychological dynamic called “confirmation bias” … soliciting and internalizing information that is consistent with one’s current beliefs.
Said differently, confirmation bias is a natural stress-reduction tendency to avoid or resist any information that is contrary to or inconsistent with one’s current thinking.
One of the major solidifiers of our current political polarization is the “echo chamber effect” … we all tend to consult sources and hang with people who share, reinforce and exaggerate our ideological leanings.
So what to do?
According to his economists, the trillion dollar stimulus program was a bust!
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Lots of MSM headlines these days about the strong economy that Obama is handing Trump … with a strong suggestion that Trump will have a hard time matching Obama’s stellar performance as a job creator.
Really?
On the plus side, the reported unemployment rate has dropped from the financial crisis highs.
For today, we’ll push aside the facts that (a) American’s who have been economically crushed largely voted the Dems out of office; and (2) the labor force participation rate has dropped precipitously – giving the unemployment rate a faux boost.
But, let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers … using the Administration’s own analyses.
Some key points are being overlooked.
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Fueled by a “secret CIA assessment”, election-deniers are having a field day blaming Queen Hillary’s loss on the Russians.
Beyond the hypocrisy of their post-debate-3 hyperventilation over Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results if they seemed tainted, the deniers seem to be overlooking a couple of key points.
She landslided California, but lost the combined popular vote in the other 49 states (& DC).
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Dems are still carping that Trump’s ascendency is illegitimate since Hillary won the popular vote.
And, everybody knows that Hillary won big in California.
But, I was a bit surprised by how big her California win was … and its implications.
Bottom line: Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes … buoyed by a 4.3 million edge in California.
Think about that for a second.
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Yes, Clinton won California big time … but, Trump won the combined popular vote of the other 49 states (& DC)
The MSM repeatedly observes that Trump followers drag their knuckles … and that Hillary dominated among the intelligensia.
So was Clinton’s success in California simply explained by Californians being smarter than the rest of the country?
Quick quiz: how does the average Californian’s IQ rack up against residents of other states?
The answer may surprise you ….
Lessons in diplomacy …
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Of course, the current Russia hysteria has prompted flashbacks of the infamous Russian Reset …
Back in March 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a small green box with a ribbon.
Inside was a red button with the Russian word “peregruzka” printed on it.
Clinton offered that pushing it would “reset our relationship” … ostensibly, for the better.
So, how did that all work out?
Remember the 2012 Presidential debates?
A key moment was when President Obama ridiculed Gov. Romney’s knowledge of foreign affairs.
Given the current hysteria over Russia, the clip is a classic … try to stay calm when you.watch it
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Here’s more that’ll should make you scream …
I’ve got an alternative scenario for you.
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Last week, focus shifted from fake news to Russian hacking intended to help Trump get elected.
There’s hand-wringing and outrage that the Russians might have tried to impact a U.S. election by revealing Hillary’s emails..
President Obama has ordered that an investigation be done and a report on his desk by the time he leaves office (i.e. right before President-elect Trump gets sworn in).
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Most recently, U.S. intelligence officials fingered the Russians but have conceded that (1) they are basing their views on deductive circumstantial reasoning and not conclusive evidence and (2) they are uncertain as to motive. Source
I’ve got an alternative deduced scenario for you. Let’s connect some dots on this one …
Flashback: Current POTUS skips more than half of his (while President).
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The MSM is blasting President-elect Trump for not having security briefings every day.
Keep in mind that Trump is President-elect, not President.
So, the briefings can be a learning experience, but there’s nothing actionable that he can do until January 20.
Putting that fact aside …
Flashback to a study done by Government Accountability Institute re: Obama’s briefing practices.
At the time, security folks were concerned that Obama was frequently skipping his Presidential Daily Briefings (PDBs).
Here’s what the GAI found …
Adding visuals to menus (and reports) creates interest and boosts credibility.
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Studies have shown that adding icons and photos to restaurant menus increase sales up to 30% for the featured items.
The visuals draw attention to the items … if done well, they stimulate diners’ senses.
OK, we’ve all be menu-enticed … that’s not news.
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But, did you know that simply adding a visual – a graph or chart or formula — to a report can boost the credibility of a conclusion by 50% or more?
“A permanent job with good benefits is (now) beyond reach for most American workers … only federal judges and tenured professors are insulated from the forces of workforce transformation”
That’s according to the authors of the book Working Scared (Or Not at All): The Lost Decade, Great Recession, and Restoring the Shattered American Dream
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The book Working Scared is focused on the ways that the American workplace has changed in the past 50 or so years … and the implications on American workers (and non-workers).
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The central premise of the book is that globalization (out-sourcing & off-shoring); de-industrialization (towards more services and knowledge-based); technology-intensity (computers, internet, robots); and de-unionization have shattered the American Dream for tens of millions of working adults who are struggling or poor … “despite working hard and playing by the rules.”
More specifically …
After last week’s employment numbers, Administration reps emphasized that over 12 million jobs have been added … recovering the number of jobs lost, plus a few to spare.
Predictably, conservative pundits countered that that the “mix” of jobs has deteriorated … well-paying full-time jobs have been replaced with lower paying full-time jobs and involuntary part-time jobs … with many of the added jobs going to immigrants – some legal, some not.
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Coincidentally, I started reading a book titled Working Scared (Or Not at All) … about the plight of the American worker … both old-timers who worked hard and played by the rules and newbies who are graduating with high college debt and disappointing career prospects.
The authors cut to the chase by researching the core issue: have the workers who lost their jobs bounced back?
Yesterday, we looked at the falling labor force participation rate (LFPR) among so-called prime age males … aged 24 to 54 … a range that outboards most students and retirees.
About 10 million men fall into that category – unemployed but not looking for work.
One hypothesis is that the LFPR among prime age males has dropped because – as women have entered the workforce – the men have stayed home to care for family members and do household chores.
According to the Fed’s latest American Time Use Survey, there’s some evidence to support that hypothesis.
In fact, “non-participating prime-age men” spend about 1/2 hour per day more on “household activities & services” than do prime age males who are in the labor force.
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But, that’s only a small part of the story ….
More able-bodied men are sitting on their duffs …
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The November jobs report in a nutshell: 160k jobs added, but … the adult population increased by 219k and the civilian labor force contracted by 226k … so, the labor force participation rate dropped again.
It’s no secret that the Labor Force Participation — the % of able bodied adults who are employed or looking for work — has dropped about 4-1/2 percentage points from pre-financial crisis levels … and continues to fall.
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The economy-is-doing-just-fine crowd chalks the declining rate to demographics – old-timers retiring.
In prior posts I’ve attributed about 1/3 to retirees … the rest to slackers.
To that point, let’s cut the data a different way …
Since the election is over, the T-Day conversation at our house shifted to “cow tipping”.
So, let’s dip into the HomaFiles archive for the definitive explanation … with a twist.
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A news story caught my eye yesterday.
But, first some context …
Have you ever heard of “cow tipping?
It’s a ritual where drunk farm boys sneak up on cows and tip them over.
Technical note: I have no idea why they have to be drunk, but it’s always stated that way.
Last year , Modern Farmer magazine published a scientific study on cow tipping.
Basically, Modern Farmer debunked the rural legend:
Cow tipping, at least as popularly imagined, does not exist.
Drunk young men do not, on any regular basis, sneak into cow pastures and put a hard shoulder into a cow taking a standing snooze, thus tipping the poor animal over.
While in the history of the world there have surely been a few unlucky cows shoved to their side by gang of boozed-up morons, we feel confident in saying this happens at a rate roughly equivalent to the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series.
The evidence against cow tipping is immense, and backed up by both farmers and the laws of physics
Ignore the cheap shot at my favorite Cubbies … focus on the “boozed up morons” and the “laws of physics”.
The Modern Farmer study was provocative enough that it was picked up by Slate.com with the following headline:
Uh-oh, this is where things get really interesting …
They are the building blocks of reasoning, problem-solving and critical thinking.
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The courses that I teach contain a heavy dose of problem-solving skills.
Early on, I assert my belief that that problem-solving skills can be taught – and, more importantly, learned – and set about to prove the point.
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I’ve been doing some summer reading on the topic of reasoning & problem-solving and learned:
“For twenty-six hundred years many philosophers and educators have been confident that reasoning could be taught.”
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