Archive for October, 2013

Nums: Who is likely to do a better job: Federal government workers … or zombies?

October 31, 2013

I guess that since it’s Halloween, Rasmussen  felt obligated to put that question to a broad sample of Americans.

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37% said that gov’t workers would outperform zombies.

Blacks are more than twice as likely as whites and other minority Americans to believe the government workers would do a better job than zombies.

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37% said that zombies would outperform gov’t workers … a tie.

Men are more likely than women to think zombies would do a better job running the country.

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26% called it a “push”.

Happy Halloween !

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Uh-oh: Sharp drop in O’s approval ratings …

October 31, 2013

The government shutdown was jolting to Congressional (and GOP) already low ratings.

Pundits were projecting a big positive bump for the President.

That was an eternity ago.

You know, a couple of weeks.

Then the spotlight turned to the ObamaCare fiascos … the web site mess and the loss of Obama-guaranteed health insurance policies.

Worm turned.

Latest NBC-WSJ poll reports an all-time low Presidential approval rating of 42% … down 5 percentage points from earlier in the month … and. down 10 percentage points from January.

 

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What’s driving the drop?

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“Don’t tell me that words don’t matter”

October 30, 2013

Flashback to February 2008 …

To counter Hillary’s snark that he was all words and no substance – Candidate Obama gave a moving speech re: how much words matter.

The punch line:

“I’m running for president of the United States of America … because the American people want to believe in change again. Don’t tell me
words don’t matter!”   Transcript

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So, why would I bring that up today?

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“The system is working” … oh, really?

October 30, 2013

Let me be very specific …

Yesterday, Marilyn Tavenner — head of CMS (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services), responsible for “systems integration” for Healthcare.gov and other ObamaCare applications – said flat out:

“The system working albeit slower and less accurately than hoped.” CNN

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Hmmm.

First reaction, except for speed and accuracy … what is there?

Teased, I couldn’t resist temptation.

So, I broke down and went to Healthcare.gov.

Here’s what I got …

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Stewart: So, what exactly does he know?

October 29, 2013

“I learned about it the same way you did … in the newspapers.”

Say, what?

The list of the President’s “news to me, too” is growing: Fast & Furious, IRS targeting, ObamaCare system snafus, NSA spying, Healthcare Insurance cancellations, etc.

It’s reached the point that even hardcore supporter Jon Stewart is asking: “What exactly does he know?”

Here’s a Stewart skit explaining how President Obama is kept out of the loop regarding spying and health care.

click to view
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The routine would be funnier if this stuff wasn’t such serious business.

MUST READ: The WSJ’s recap of what Obama has claimed ignorance of … The Unbearable Lightness of Obama

The president didn’t know the NSA was spying on world leaders, but he’s found time for at least 146 rounds of golf.

Call Mr. Obama’s style indifferent, aloof or irresponsible, but a president who governs like this reaps the whirlwind—if not for himself, then for his country.

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Remember Rep. Joe Wilson’s notorious shout out: “You lie!”

October 29, 2013

During the 2010 State-of-the Union address, Rep. Joe Wilson of SC shouted “You lie” when Pres. Obama was going through a list of what ObamaCare would and would not do.

First, let’s all agree that Wilson’s  outburst was completely inappropriate for the venue.

That said, how does the substance of his shout out stack up?

Let’s start with a softball and then advance the story …

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Amazon, ObamaCare … and the “power of free”

October 28, 2013

Everybody knows that Amazon’s free shipping program has been a resounding success.

So much so. that the company has announced that it will be moving the minimum qualifying order up from $25 to $35 … inducing shoppers to fill  their carts fuller or switch to the highly profitable Amazon Prime program.

The free shipping program’s success was highly predictable based an an apparently inadvertent “matched market test” that Amazon did.

 

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Early-on, Amazon launched  free shipping on $25 orders in the U.S. and sales skyrocketed.

In the UK, Amazon launched “nominal shipping” (think, 99 cents) for orders totaling the equivalent of $25.

Sales increased … but only by a fraction of the U.S. sales gain.

Proof-positive of the “power of free” … and evidence an equally important dynamic: there’s a big difference between “free” and “almost free” … when you slip a price on something – even a small one, people recoil.

Now, what’s the link to ObamaCare?

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Noonan: Cruising on the Titanic?

October 28, 2013

Loyal readers know that I really like Peggy Noonan.

Even when I disagree with her views, I enjoy her writing.

Noonan was a strong 2008 Obama supporter … not so much any more.

She wrote a really good editorial re: ObamaCare in last Friday’s WSJ.

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Worth reading in its entirety … here are a couple of snippets …

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Nums: The jobs report in 4 charts

October 25, 2013

The bruhaha re: the ObamaCare systems implosion overshadowed the belated September jobs report.

To get you up to date …

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Nonfarm employment increased by 148,000 in September … analysts were expecting 180,000 … which is about the average for the past 12 months.

 

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Source

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Importantly, jobs are being added disproportionately in services (think hotels & fast-food places) … not in manufacturing.

 

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Source

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And, there’s more to the story …

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ObamaCare’s adverse selection: Anybody remember the Mariel boatlift?

October 24, 2013

First, for all of you youngsters, some background …

The “Mariel boatlift” was a mass emigration of Cubans who departed from Cuba’s Mariel Harbor for the United States in 1980.

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The Mariel boatlift was precipitated by a sharp downturn in the Cuban economy which led to thousands of Cubans badgering the government to allow them to leave and seek asylum in the U.S.

Previously, the Communist government maintained closed borders – in and out.  Citizens weren’t allowed to leave.  Think, Berlin Wall.

Then, suddenly, the Cuban government announced that anyone who wanted to leave could do so, and an exodus by boat started shortly afterward.

At first, President Carter – reading the move as a humanitarian gesture – opened the U.S. borders to the emigrating Cubans.

Then, Fidel Castro seized the opportunity to load the boats with convicted felons from Cuban jails and patients from Cuban mental health facilities.

When Carter caught on, the Mariel boatlift was ended.

By that point, as many as 125,000 Cubans had made the journey to Florida.

Estimates vary widely re: what portion of the the exiles who made it to U.S. shores were hardcore criminals and very unhealthy patients.

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What’s the Mariel boatlift got to do with ObamaCare?

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Amtrak: Wall and K Streeters ridin’ the rails … on our dimes.

October 23, 2013

Noticed a couple of articles re: Amtrak’s record-breaking ridership …

Reportedly,  Amtrak broke a number of records in fiscal 2013

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In fiscal 2013, Amtrak hauled 31.6 million butts …  forking out $2.1 billion in ticket revenue

More than a third of traffic was along the Northeast Corridor, between Washington, NYC and Boston.

  • New York’s Penn Station was the busiest, with 9.6 million passengers.
  • Washington’s Union Station was the second busiest station, with 5 million passengers.
  • Philadelphia’s 30th Street Station was number three, with 4.1 million passengers.

So, who’s riding Amtrak, and how much are you paying paying for their rides?

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Adverse selection: Will “adult children” destroy ObamaCare economics?

October 22, 2013

I’ve railed for awhile re: one of ObamaCare’s most popular benefits … forcing insurance companies to allow “adult-children” to be appended to their parents’ health insurance policies.

I wouldn’t mind if they – or more accurately, their parents – were paying for the coverage … but they typically aren’t

All other folks are being forced to pay higher premiums to cover the added costs.

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Let me explain the economics and tie it to another likely ObamaCare “glitch” …

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OC eligibility verification: The canary in the coal mine?

October 21, 2013

Let’s see ….

The original ObamaCare law said that an insurance applicant’s eligibility should be verified before they’re granted a Federal premium subsidy.

Sounds easy enough.

But then, out of the blue, President Obama modifies the law on-the-fly with an Executive Order to fugetaboutit..

You know, just go by the honor system.

Hmmm.

Anybody remember the “liar loans” that played a central role in the financial crisis?

Then the budget brouhaha gets settled by reinstating the original law’s requirement that an applicant’s eligibility be verified before a subsidy is granted.

Essentially, eligibility is based on income.

Which led my wife to ask me a question that cuts to the core of the ObamaCare systems issue.

  • Important tech note: It is a “systems issue” and not a “web site issue” as the media likes to call it.  That’s significant, because it’s relatively easy to fix a web site issue with code tweaks … a systems issue is much more challenging … especially if the “system” consists of a bunch of decades-old “batch-based” legacy systems that are cobbled together and asked to operate in real-time.

My wife’s question: “Why is verifying income so hard?

If people have to submit their Social Security numbers when applying for ObamaCare, can’t they just ask the the IRS system how much income the people make ?”

Good question.

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But, a question that opens up a veritable Pandora’s box. …

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Redskins: Here’s how to end the flap over your name …

October 18, 2013

Let’s think out-of-the-box and resolve the flap over the Washington Redskins name.

It seems that in every odd number year, there’s a controversy … and pressure is get the Redskins to change their name.

Apparently some folks think the name is offensive to native Americans.

No kidding.

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Well, I have a creative idea for resolving this bruhaha …

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Here’s the skinny on ObamaCare premiums …

October 17, 2013

The recent Forbe’s article that we reported on yesterday said that the ObamaCare web site gets bogged down because folks need to enter their private info in order to get a premium quote.

Why?

Forbes (and other pundits) say that the “list price” of the premiums are much higher than people expect … so the Feds want to calculate the ObamaCare subsideis first and quote people a net price … after taking the subsidies into account.

That got me curious.

How much are ObamaCare premiums … and what are the policy terms & conditions re: deductibles, co-pays, etc.?

So, I did some hunting … and, in fact, it takes some hunting.

Best source that I found is a tool developed by the Kaiser Family Foundation (link below).

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The Kaiser calculator requires just a couple of inputs … no private information.

Here’s what I input: Family of 4, non-smokers, $100K household income.

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OK, place your bets.

What do think the annual premium would be?

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What’s the price? … and more tales from the ObamaCare web site.

October 16, 2013

The ObamaCare website and its underlying inter-connected legacy systems are going to be legendary for apparent IT ineptness.

A case study in how not to develop and launch new systems

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Why isn’t the system able to do the basics?

You know: log people in, tell them the price, sign them up and, oh yeah, keep people’s private information secure.

Some of the problems are structural … what happens when you try to inter-connect old legacy systems … each with a humongous, uniquely-designed database.

Other problems are self-inflicted … either amateurish design or intentional strategic specifications built into the design.

As a recovering systems designer and CIO — and, oh yeah, a pricing prof — here’s my take  ..

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In praise of tough teachers …

October 15, 2013

My students are likely to cringe at this post which kinda legitimizes my teaching style.

Uh-oh …

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According to a recent WSJ article:

The latest findings in fields from music to math to medicine lead to a single, startling conclusion: It’s time to revive old-fashioned education.

Not just traditional but old-fashioned in the sense that so many of us knew as kids, with strict discipline and unyielding demands.

Why?

Because here’s the thing: It works.

 

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Of course, that conclusion flies in the face of the kinder, gentler philosophy that has dominated American education over the past few decades.

The conventional wisdom holds that teachers are supposed to tease knowledge out of students, rather than pound it into their heads.

Projects and collaborative learning are applauded; traditional methods like lecturing and memorization — derided as “drill and kill” — are frowned upon, dismissed as a surefire way to suck young minds dry of creativity and motivation.

But the conventional wisdom is wrong.

And the following eight principles explain why …

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What do colleges have in common with Kohl’s?

October 14, 2013

I oft say that anybody who pays sticker price at Kohl’s should look over their shoulder to make sure that Darwin isn’t chasing them.

Maybe the same should be said of parents who pay list price tuition to fund their kiddies through college.

Lots of talk re: how college costs are soaring.

According to the WSJ

Published tuition rates have soared in the last decade, but only a small percentage of families actually pays full freight.

Between grants to needy students and merit scholarships to entice other desirable candidates, schools these days are giving back nearly 50% of gross tuition revenue in the form of aid and awards.

In other words, list prices are going up, but more stuff is being sold at sale prices.

 

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Increasingly, colleges are using pricing methods previously the domain of airlines and discount retailers …

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Will the U.S. default if debt limit isn’t raised?

October 11, 2013

Lots of hysteria re: the debt limit.

Key question: will the U.S. really default on its debt obligations if the debt limit isn’t raised?

Answer: Only if that’s what the Treasury Department wants to do.

Basic facts:

The Treasury receives about $250 billion in tax receipts every month.

Interest on the debt is about $30 billion per month (@ an average interest rate of about 2%)

So, plenty of money to cover interest on the debt.

What’s the rub?

Some calamitists say: “No legal way to prioritize who gets paid.  Gotta pay all obligations.”

Easy answer: Cut the flow of obligations.

As the shutdown is showing, we can tell NASA, HUD, EPA, and Education to stay home for awhile and we won’t miss a beat.

Cut expenses, cut obligations. Easy as that.

But, Business Insider says that the government doesn’t have sophisticated enough computer systems to prioritize the cutting of checks.

If the ObamaCare exchanges are representative, they may be right on that one.

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Here’s a clip worth watching.

David Stockman – former OMB head – speaks to the issue … he says default won’t happen.

 

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Nums: About the Federal debt limit …

October 10, 2013

Great infographic from CBC News … re: the U.S. Debt limit.

Takeaways below the chart …

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As commonly known, the debt limit has surged under both Bush and Obama.

The debt to GDP ratio has soared under Obama … after being flat for about 20 years.

Of course, part of the ratio increase is tied to the denominator … the debt has increased faster than the slow economic recovery.

Biggest surprise (to me) is that The “inflection point” – when the debt really started to takeoff was during the Reagan presidency.

So what?

Upward trajectory has to end some day, right?

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click to play with the infographic … worth browsing.

 
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Hacks: ObamaCare exchanges are “target rich environments” …

October 9, 2013

Couple data points converged for me …

First, loyal readers may remember that  I was an identity theft victim.

Started a couple of weeks after my first e-filing of a tax return to the IRS.

Coincidence?

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Being sensitized to the ID theft issue, I noticed a couple of recent articles about “ripe pickings” …

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Turnabout is fair play … remember “Reconciliation”?

October 8, 2013

I’ve been amused by the Dems squawking about the way that the GOP Congress has linked ObamaCare  to the Budget’s “continuing resolution”.

Foul.  Fight fair. Never done.  Blah-blah-blah.

Here’s the ironic twist …

Remember how Obama Care was passed?

 

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To refresh your memory, and see the irony …

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Nums: How much of the government is actually shut down?

October 7, 2013

Question: in a partial government shutdown, like the one underway at the moment, how much of the government is actually shut down, and how much is not?

Answer: About 17%.shut down; 83% up and running

Details below …

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Based on estimates drawn from CBO and OMB data, 83 percent of government operations will continue.

This figure assumes that the government pays amounts due on appropriations obligated before the shutdown ($512 billion), spends $225 billion on exempted military and civilian personnel, pays entitlement benefits for those found eligible before the shutdown (about $2 trillion), and pays interest costs when due ($237 billion).

This is about 83 percent of projected 2014 spending of $3.6 trillion.” Source

Hmmm.

And, let’s drill down on who actually got furloughed …

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Uh-oh: The White House is winning … oh, really?

October 5, 2013

All the pundits are saying that President Obama is winning big as the GOP’s ham-handles the government shut down.

Hmmm.

Apparently the pundits don’t look at the numbers.

On Friday, Obama’s sagging approval ratings dropped to 41% in Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

With a 52% disapproval rating, that puts him 11 points underwater in a poll that generally leans a bit to the left.

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If you think that Gallup is an outlier, then keep reading …

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Flambé: Tesla hits phantom steel object and does a Dreamliner …

October 4, 2013

Guess what: Big batteries – when subjected to trauma – catch fire … whether in the air  (787) or on the ground (Tesla).

Earlier this week, a Youtube was posted showing a Tesla on fire.

Audio: “Dude, that’s a brand new car … wow”

click to view

Here are some details …

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Deja Vu: Anybody remember zero-based budgeting?

October 3, 2013

First, a quick refresher course courtesy of the Government Finance Officers Association (of Canada, that is).

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When using zero-base budgeting (ZBB), a government builds a budget from the ground up, starting from zero.

There has been renewed interest in ZBB in today’s environment of fiscal constraint, not least because the “zero” in zero-base budgeting sends a powerful message that taxes and spending will be held in check.

Zero-base budgeting, also known simply as ZBB, has had a long …  history in the public sector.

Zero-base budgeting first rose to prominence in government in the 1970s when U.S. President Jimmy Carter promised to balance the federal budget in his first term and reform the federal budgeting system using zero-base budgeting, a system he had used while governor of Georgia.

ZBB, as Carter and budget theorists envisioned it, requires expenditure proposals to compete for funding on an equal basis – starting from zero. In theory, the organization’s entire budget needs to be justified and approved, rather than just the incremental change from the prior year.

Today, there is an apparent resurgent interest in ZBB.

GFOA’s survey shows that traditional budgeting methods, namely line-item and incremental budgeting, have declined in use in the last few years, while all forms of budgeting that are thought to be better adapted to cutting back the budget, not just ZBB, have increased Source

OK, they’re talking about Canada, not the U.S.

Still a couple of takeaways:

1. The process – in government, at least – traces back to Jimmy Carter.

2. Many Canadian governments are using ZBB

3. In Canada, the use of ZBB is increasing

Now. here’s what I think is interesting …

 


Although they stumbled into it, the GOP may have landed on a masterful plan.

In effect, the GOP’s piecemeal approach to unraveling the government shutdown is nothing more than real-time ZBB.

Think about it for a second.

A week ago the gambit was to fund everything except ObamaCare.

Non-starter, right?

Now, in concept at least, the piecemealing approach allows everything to be funded … except ObamaCare.

Everything that matters – either really or because of political optics – can be quickly restored with short, separate authorization bills.

Anything that’s questionable stays squashed.

Anything that’s essential gets an appropriation,

Eventually everything that’s essential gets funded.

Gee, that sounds like zero-based budgeting, doesn’t it?

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Do you think I’m sexy? … My ratings hang in the balance!

October 2, 2013

According to BigThink.com

The website ratemyprofessors.com has students anonymously comment on their professors’ “helpfulness,” “clarity” and “easiness.”

The punctuation point: Raters are asked where the prof is “hot” or “not.”

Four professors from Central Michigan University trolled through the data and wrote a paper examining “Attractiveness, Easiness, and Other Issues: Student Evaluations of Professors on rateMyProfessors.com.”

After conceding that the site is rife with “issues”, the authors dug in and researched the relationship between student perceptions of professor “hotness” and their evaluation of “quality of instruction.”.

Guess what?

A large percentage of American college students consider courses to be high-quality when the professor is attractive..

 

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As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise, surprise, surprise.”

The only surprise is the magnitude and consistency of the relationship.

Profs that are “not hot” are toast.

The Central Michigan “scholars” also evaluated the relative hotness of profs by discipline …

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Wharton: Applications down, but ratings soon to increase … at least on the radio

October 1, 2013

Two related articles caught my eye …

First, the WSJ said that “something at Wharton doesn’t add up”.

Applications to the University of Pennsylvania’s business school have declined 12% in the past four years.

 

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Of course, Wharton claims that they’re going after quality, not quantity.

Wharton says the decline, combined with a stronger applicant pool and a higher percentage of accepted applicants who enroll, proves that the school is doing a better job targeting candidates.

But business-school experts and b-school applicants say Wharton has lost its luster as students’ interests shift from finance to technology and entrepreneurship.

One non-applicant observed: “Wharton is typecast as the finance school … going to business school isn’t about going into the financial sector any more.”

Some admissions advisers and Wharton professors agree, saying that the school didn’t react aggressively enough when the spigot of finance jobs was turned off.

Even though applications may be down, Wharton’s brand still has drawing power … here’s proof.

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