Archive for October 31st, 2020

Oct. 31: Election – Battlegrounds

October 31, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  45.8  +3.1

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in AZ, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

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If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Oct. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 31, 2020

235,153 Deaths-to-Date

932 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 838     (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

101,012  New Cases
> 7-day average  77,822

> Highest day        101,012  Oct. 30
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

Currently Hospitalized

46,688  Current level
> Highest day    59,840  April 15
> Lowest point   27,895  June 14
> Recent peak    59,715  July 23

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Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »