Archive for February, 2018

Seriously, do you want ME packing heat?

February 28, 2018

In yesterday’’s post, I advocated posting this sign at all schools ASAP.

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Why?

It sends a clear message that students’ safety is important … it might deter one or more potential school shooters … and it cleverly ducks the question of whether school personnel can (or do) pack heat.

How many school personnel are authorized?

Maybe all … or some … or none.

That’s a policy question that needs to be resolved …. but sign-interpretation is in the eyes of the beholders.

Maybe a potential shooter or two will be deterred.

That’s enough to justify the signs.

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OK, so what about the policy question?

(more…)

Posted in School safety | Leave a Comment »

School safety: Here’s something that can be done today …

February 27, 2018

There’s a rationale and some evidence – albeit spotty and disputable  — that the following types of signs deter most burglars:

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So, here’s the sign that I’d post at all schools starting today…

(more…)

Posted in School safety, School shootings | Leave a Comment »

The sheriff’s BIG mistake …

February 26, 2018

During last week’s CNN-staged “Town Hall”, Broward County Sheriff Scott Israel attacked NRA spokeswoman Dana Loesch.

Israel told Loesch that she wasn’t standing up for the students:

“You just told this group of people that you are standing up for them. You’re not standing up for them, until you say I want less weapons.”

The hand-picked CNN crowd erupted in support.

Hmmm.

He was the hero of the moment, but may rue his attack.

Predictably, the NRA struck back:

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Does the NRA have a point?

(more…)

Posted in School safety | 3 Comments »

“See something, Say something.” isn’t good enough.

February 23, 2018

There were chilling social media threats.

A hard tip to the FBI.

39 welfare calls to local police.

The school’s armed security officer “stood outside the building where the shooting occurred rather than going in” Source

The first 3 first-responders (sheriff’s deputies) stayed outside waiting for SWAT to arrive.

Why say something if an alert (1) puts you at risk of a defamation suit and (2) isn’t likely to result in any preventative action?

The egregious miss by the FBI, local police, social services and school officials seems to have already vanished from the post-mortem discussion.

Here’s the bumper sticker I want to see.

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And, can we please stop talking about having a “conversation”.

Let’s have a plan … and start implementing it!

Amen.

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Posted in School safety, See, say, hear, DO | 1 Comment »

All 17 intelligence agencies agree that Russia “meddled & sowed” …

February 22, 2018

Am I the only one wondering why there are 17 spy agencies?

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I’ve been amused at the way the phrase slides off the tongues of the news readers: “All 17 intelligence agencies…”

Certainly aroused my curiosity.

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Sure enough, the U.S. intelligence “community” is officially the composite of 17 overt organizations (more on them later) … but, according to a Washington Post investigation, they’re just the tip of the iceberg.

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Among WaPo’s findings:

  • Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States.
  • An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.
  • In Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built since September 2001. Together they occupy the equivalent of almost three Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capitol buildings – about 17 million square feet of space.
  • Many security and intelligence agencies do the same work, creating redundancy and waste. For example, 51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks.
  • Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year – a volume so large that many are routinely ignored.

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Back on point, here’s a list of the 17 agencies that make up the U.S. spy network …

(more…)

Posted in CIA, Intelligence Agencies, Spying | 4 Comments »

Yum, those burgers looks good …

February 21, 2018

Adding visuals to menus (and reports) creates interest and boosts credibility.

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Studies have shown that adding  icons and photos to restaurant menus increase sales up to 30% for the featured items.

The visuals draw attention to the items … if done well, they stimulate diners’ senses.

OK, we’ve all be menu-enticed … that’s not news.

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But, did you know that simply adding a visual – a graph or chart  or formula — to a report can boost the credibility of a conclusion by 50% or more?

(more…)

Posted in Cognitive biases, Visualizations | Leave a Comment »

Maybe there is a political middle…

February 21, 2018

In the old days it was called the “silent majority”
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yesterday, we reprised a post: America’s political polarization in 3 charts …

That analysis ended in 2014 … showing a double-humped distribution that had been separating over the past decade or so.

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New data is now available, so let’s advance the picture to 2017

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Source: WaPo analysis of Pew data

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The humps have spread further apart … indicating sharper polarization.

The peaks are higher … especially the one on the left,

Also, note the vanishing middle (the dark blue on the graphic).

Now, let’s drill down another level…

(more…)

Posted in Ideology - polarization, Politics - General, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Russia’s very bad week continues …

February 20, 2018

As if “meddling” and “sowing discord” weren’t bad enough.
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Now, Olympic officials are threatening to strip a a Russian curler – and his mixed-doubles partner wife –  of their bronze medals.

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This is noteworthy in a couple of respects.

First, it’s CURLING !

I find that amusing, to say the least.

(more…)

Posted in Olympics | 1 Comment »

Macedonian bot farms sigh relief …

February 19, 2018

Feds nail Boris & Natasha for trolling the internet.
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Seriously, this is like something out of Rocky & Bullwinkle.

Friday was a very, very bad day for the DOJ / FBI.

First, it was disclosed that they failed to act on a very hard tip that the Florida school killer was literally locked, loaded and intending carnage.

Then, in an apparent attempt to deflect attention away from that egregious miss, the DOJ / Special Investigator held a spur-of-the-moment press conference to announce that a handful of Russian companies and individuals were being indicted for “sowing discord” and “meddling” in the Presidential election.

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Rather than just taking the talking heads at face value, I decided to read the indictment.

Honestly, it brought back memories … of Dudley Do-Right foiling the feeble plots of Boris and Natasha on Rocky & Bullwinkle.

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Let’s go through some of the details …

(more…)

Posted in Mueller, Mueller Special Prosecutor, Russia - Russians, Russians - Putin, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Uh-oh: CDs go the way of the 8-track …

February 16, 2018

Millennials have had years of fun mocking boomers and their caches of 8-track cartridges and cassette tapes.

Well, what goes around, comes around.

Now, “their” stacks of teen-years’ music CDs approaching laughing stock status.

Just ask Best Buy,  which is reportedly planning to quit selling music CDs at its stores this summer.

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Source

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Some music enthusiasts lament that CDs will be missed since they offer high quality reproduced sound that can’t be matched by digital streaming.

Gee, wasn’t the same thing said of vinyl records when they were dislodged by CDs?

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Posted in CDs, Music | Leave a Comment »

More part-timers finding full-time jobs …

February 15, 2018

One of the benefits of the current low unemployment rate is that many people who were previously working part-time “for economic reasons” (i.e. had their hours reduced to part-time status or couldn’t find a full-time job) are now employed full-time.

By the numbers …

Approximately 127 million workers are now employed full-time …. that’s an all-time high … up 16 million from the financial crisis low point …  and up 5 million from the pre-crisis high.

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Here’s the interesting part …

(more…)

Posted in Economic indicators, Economy, Employment - Jobs, Health Care / Medical Insurance | Leave a Comment »

Finding college-caliber disadvantaged high-schoolers …

February 14, 2018

Universal SAT / ACT testing  “finds” talented low-income college candidates
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Interesting study reported by Brookings …

Entrance exams (ACT or SAT ) are required for admission to virtually all selective colleges in the US.

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For low-income students, that’s a hurdle to overcome.

Students have to register and pay for these tests, and then travel to a testing center on a weekend to take them.

This is straightforward, if you have internet access, a computer, a credit card, and a car.

If you are missing any of these resources, it’s a lot more challenging.

The nearest testing center may be in a suburb that is unreachable by public transportation early on a Saturday morning.

To overcome these hurdles, several states are now giving the ACT or SAT exams in school, for free, on a school day during school hours.

The benefits are two-fold …

(more…)

Posted in College Admissions | Leave a Comment »

One of these things is not like the others …

February 13, 2018

In the musical words of Sesame Street’s Ernie:

One Of These Things (Is Not Like The Others)
One of these things is not like the others,
One of these things just doesn’t belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?

 

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Source: National Gallery

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Posted in Obama | Leave a Comment »

Need proof that charter schools work?

February 13, 2018

New study of NYC charter schools provide compelling evidence.
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I recently stumbled upon an interesting research study by CREDO – the Center for Research on Education Outcomes at Stanford University.

CREDO was established to gather and analyze empirical evidence about education reform and student performance (i.e. “outcomes) with a particular emphasis on innovative programs, curricula, policies and accountability practices.

A recent report focused on New York City  charter schools since “New York City has been the nexus of public discourse about charter schools for nearly two decades but only a fraction of that debate has been grounded in well researched evidence about charter schools’ impact on student outcomes.”

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And, the answer is …

(more…)

Posted in Charter schools, Education - Academics | 1 Comment »

Is the value of government secrets grossly exaggerated?

February 12, 2018

That’s a question posed in a WSJ opinion piece over the weekend.
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Of course, the immediate stimulus was President Trump’s refusal to summarily declassify everything in the Dem’s rebuttal to the Nune’s memo.

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A week ago, the Dems – buoyed by DOJ and FBI warnings – were uber-concerned about protecting classified material.

Those concerns seemed a bit silly when the memo was released.

The only sources “outted” were the Clinton Campaign and Yahoo News.

The only method revealed was Googling “Page, Russia”.

Sure, the FBI and DOJ were “embarrassed” … but, so what?

So, why not throw caution to the wind and release the Dem memo?

(more…)

Posted in Classified documents, DOJ - Dept of Justice, FBI | Leave a Comment »

Feldstein called it: Stocks are headed for a fall …

February 9, 2018

“The Fed’s easy monetary policy has led to overvalued equities”
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A couple of weeks ago, we posted Feldstein: Stocks are headed for a fall …

Now that the stock market has “corrected” by over 10%, it feels like time for a flashback.

Feldman called it … and, decades ago, I had researched (and confirmed) the basis of his forecast.

So, did Iact of Feldstein’s prognostication?

Of course not …

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Let’s start by taking a stroll down memory lane ….

Over 40 years ago, an economist-wannabe co-authored a study in the Journal of Finance titled “The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices”.

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The article summarized an econometric study (think: big, hairy financial model) that demonstrated a tight link between the amount of money floating around and, on a slightly time-delayed basis, the price of stocks.

That is, when the Fed adds liquidity into the market (think: “quantitative easing”), much of money flows into the stock market – rocket-boosting stock prices.

And the opposite is true. When the Fed tightens, stock prices fall back into earth orbit.

OK, fast forward to today.

(more…)

Posted in Finance & investing, Financial Models, Ken - Misc., Supply of Money & Common Stock Prices | Leave a Comment »

Are you a nice person?

February 8, 2018

You probably over-rate your “niceness” … but that’s OK.
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According to the UK Independent …

You may consider yourself to be a nice person, but  a new study concludes that you’re probably not as nice as you think.

Psychologists at the University of London have discovered that 98 per cent of British people think they’re part of the nicest 50 per cent of the population.

Participants in the study were given a list of “nice” behaviors and asked which ones they do.

They claimed to do easy stuff like giving directions to lost souls, holding doors open or giving Granny their seat on the bus.

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But, their niceness had limits …

The respondents stopped short of giving money to needy strangers (less than 1 in 5) or helping Granny cross the street (about 1 in 4).

Still, there’s some very good news …

 

(more…)

Posted in Behavior - misbehavior, Niceness, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

Nums: A world of battling algorithms

February 7, 2018

Some stock market pundits are charging algorithms – or more precisely, algorithmic trading –  for the  recent extreme stock market swings.

That brought to mind a very cool 15 minute TED Talk.

Tech entrepreneur Kevin Slavin tells how algorithms have reached across industries and into every day life.

A couple of lines caught my attention:

  • There are more than 2,000 physicists working on Wall Street developing operational algorithms
  • Massive scale speed trading is dependent on millisecond read & respond rates …
  • So, firms are physically literally locating right next to internet routing hubs to cut transmission times
  • And, of course, there isn’t time for human intervention and control
  • “We may be building whole worlds we don’t really understand, and can’t control.”

Obviously, Slavin comes down on the side of the quants.

Worth listening to this pitch … a very engaging geek who may be onto something big.

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Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

12 Rules for Life

February 6, 2018

Megan McArdle is a Bloomberg columnist who usually writes on the intersection of economics and politics.

On her 45th b-day, she penned her retrospective ‘12 Rules for Life’

A couple of her rules really resonated with me, starting with:

1. Be kind. Mean is easy; kind is hard. Making yourself feel bigger by making someone else feel small takes so little skill that 12-year-olds can do it.

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Here are the rest of my favorites, a link to the complete list, and a reason for the picture (#11) …

(more…)

Posted in Lifestyle, Rules for Living | Leave a Comment »

OMG: Memo reveals sources & methods …

February 5, 2018

There was some humor in the Nunes‘ memo
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Prior to release of the memo, the FBI issued a statement expressing the agency’s “grave concerns”.

One of the grave concerns – echoed by every left-leaning talking head – was that national security would be put at risk because the memo discloses our intelligence agencies’ sources & methods.

Usually, that means releasing the names of undercover operatives … or identifying intelligence “partners” … or disclosing technological information gathering techniques (say, bugging another government’s conference rooms).

Revealing those sources and methods would be a serious matter.

Did the memo, in fact, reveal sources & methods?

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The short answer is “yes, it did” ….

(more…)

Posted in FBI, Numes' memo, Trump, Donald | 1 Comment »

“The memo”: 3 scenarios

February 2, 2018

As I write this, the memo hasn’t been released yet …
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Reporter Kim Strassel  had a must read piece in today’s WSJ: Memo Reading for Nonpartisans.

After reading it, I conclude that there are 3 likely scenarios to emerge.

First, let’s pound some stakes in the ground:

it’s virtually certain that the memo will reveal that the “Steele Dossier” – which everybody seems to agree (or concede)  was funded by Clinton’s campaign (and-or the DNC) – was submitted to the FISA Court to obtain a warrant to wire-tap Trump associate Carter Page.

Strassel says to Ignore any arguments that the dossier was not a “basis” for the warrant or only used “in part.”

Why?

“If the FBI had to use it in its application, it means it didn’t have enough other evidence to justify surveillance.”

Further, Comey testified to the Senate, under oath that parts of the dossier were “unverified”.

The key word in the prior sentence is “parts”.

OK, on to the scenarios.

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Scenario #1: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

(1) failed to explicitly inform the court that it was funded by Clinton’s campaign and

(2) failed to explicitly inform the court which parts of dossier had been verified and which parts had not been verified.

If this is the case, the DOJ / FBI violated the FISA laws by providing the court with misleading (through omission) evidence.

That’s pretty bad.

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Scenario #2: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

(1) explicitly informed the court that it was funded by Clinton’s campaign and

(2) explicitly informed the court which parts of dossier had been verified and which parts had not been verified.

If this is the case, assuming that the verified parts were relevant to the application, then DOJ / FBI provided legit evidence and the FISA court ruled on the application based on its merits.

That gets the DOJ /FBI off the hook, but shines a light on the FISA Court and the FISA process.

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Scenario #3: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

The DOJ / FBI refuse to answer whether they explicitly advised the FISA Court of the Clinton-funding or whether they explicitly informed the court that relevant parts of the dossier were unverified.

The basis for the refusal to answer would likely be that the FISA proceedings are “sealed” … or that the information is classified.

This scenario simply keeps the issue alive at an even higher decibel level.

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My take:

If Scenario #2 plays out … the GOP case is toast.

I personally think that Scenario #1 represents “truth”, but ….

I’m betting that Scenario #3 will be operative.

We should know by the end of the day.

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Posted in FBI, Russia - Russians, Trump, Donald | Leave a Comment »

Teachers with conservative views don’t make the cut.

February 2, 2018

Topic came up (again) in a post-class chat with students, prompting this HomaFiles flashback…

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GREAT article in the WSJ from MSB’s own John Hasnas – MSB Professor of Policy & Ethics: The One Kind of Diversity Colleges Avoid

His central point: When recruiting faculty, universities seek diversity by gender, race and nationality … but, not ideology.

In many instances, conservatives and libertarians need not apply.

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That conclusion probably doesn’t surprise many of you who already see the elephant in the middle of the room.

But, Prof. Hasnas provides some texture and “inside scoop”

Here are a couple of highlight snippets from the article … (more…)

Posted in Diversity, Education - Academics, Faculty Lounge, University policies | 1 Comment »

SOTU: Trump gave a shout-out to “American grit” ….

February 1, 2018

What is this “grit” that he’s talking about?
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In his inaugural SOTU, President Trump said:

Together, we can reclaim our building heritage.

We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land.

And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit.

So, what is this “grit” that he’s talking about?

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Well, psychology professor Angela Lee Duckworth has researched successful students, athletes and business managers.

She concludes that talent and intelligence will get you only so far.

Prof. Duckworth says the characteristic that separates successful people from the also-rans is, in a word,  “grit”.

Grit is tenacious spirit that keeps certain people dedicated to their goal (whether it involves their studies, their projects, their clients, or something else) for the long haul, determined to accomplish what they set out to do.

Grit is working with intensity and  stamina over long periods of time to incrementally chip away at some goal.

Prof. Duckworth says schools & companies should recruit people who are not only smart, but also demonstrate “true grit”.

Maybe she’s onto something.

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Here’s a TED talk in which Prof. Duckworth summarizes her findings.

 

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Posted in College Admissions, Education - Academics, Grit, Success Factors | Leave a Comment »