Archive for April 4th, 2020

State-by-state COVID19 Deaths – Total and Per Capita

April 4, 2020

A reader asked “What happens when state-by-state numbers are normalized to per capita?”

So, we pulled the numbers together…


Below are the 16 states with the highest number of cumulative COVID19 deaths to date.

The right-hand column normalizes the numbers to “Deaths per Million” based on population.

Technical note: As loyal readers know, I think the oft-mentioned death rate (Deaths divided by Confirmed Cases) is very problematic.  The denominator should be Total Cases … but, that number is unknown because of the untested, asymptomatic cases.


The current total U.S. Deaths Per Million (DPM) is 22.6.

Obviously, NY is in a world of its own at 165.5 deaths per million (DPM).

The other high rankers (highlighted in red) are LA (79.7 DPM) and NJ (72.3 DPM).

The low ranking states (high cumulative deaths but low DPM) are highlighted in green: CA (7.1 DPM), FL (7.7 DPM) and PA (8.0 DPM).

My take: the standout states are CA – which was early infected but appears to have things relatively under control) and LA – which is high on the list in both total deaths-to-date and DPM.


Let’s cut the data one more way … sorting by Deaths Per Million.


Why did Trump initially play down the coronavirus threat?

April 4, 2020

Let’s make this a multiple choice:

  1. Because he’s a stupid, anti-science dufass
  2. Because he’s a pathological liar
  3. Because he that’s what his science advisers were telling him

Roughly half of the country would probably pick #1 or #2 because they hate Trump and get all of their news from the left-leaning MSM (which would likely go 100% for #1 or #2 ).

Well, it turns out that the real answer is #3.

We previously posted Dr. Birx recent admission that she “didn’t see this coming.”

What about Dr. Fauci – world renowned infectious disease expert, media-crowned truth teller, and key Trump science adviser?

Well, it turns out that circa late January and early February, Dr. Fauci was saying:

This not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.

Here’s a video clip of Dr. Fauci saying just that on January 21…

click to view a 30 sec. videoimage

  • For more examples. see non-partisan RealClearPolitics mash-up of public statements by Dr. Faucii and  other ranking members of the scientific community.

My point isn’t to trash Dr. Fauci … it’s just to provide a plausible explanation for why Trump initially played down the virus.

Perhaps, he wasn’t defying the scientists … he was listening to them and channeling their working hypotheses.


Follow on Twitter @KenHoma

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April 4 – COVID-19 Tracker

April 4, 2020

1,328 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   



7,403 Cumulative U.S. Deaths  Worldometer 

NY = 3,218  43% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   


State-by-State Data