Archive for April 24th, 2020

Flashback: “The Tipping Point” by Malcolm Gladwell.

April 24, 2020

The forces that trigger epidemics.
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Malcom Gladwell, a pop-culture observer and author, hit it big 2 decades ago with his book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference.

Primarily aimed at marketers, this best-seller provides a construct for understanding why some products and ideas languish and never gain traction … while others take off and rise quickly to broadscale acceptance.

Much of Gladwell’s thinking is derived from his study of contagions and epidemics … which makes it relevant today as we try to understand the coronavirus pandemic.

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Gladwell suggests that there are 3 key elements that need be present for an epidemic to reach a “tipping point” and takeoff: (1) Content – the infectious agent, (2) Carriers – the individuals who transmit the infection, and (3) Context – the environment in which the infectious agent  operates.

Let’s drill down on each of those…

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Gladwell, Malcolm, tipping point | Leave a Comment »

Squeezing the NY antibody test results…

April 24, 2020

Estimate: 3% of the NY state population are infected asymptomatics .. in circulation and potentially infecting others.
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In my business analytics course, I used to nudge students to “squeeze the rock” .. to get as much possible information out of each test or piece of data.

OK, let’s apply that principle today …

In a prior post, I opined that NY antibody tests were missing an information opportunity.  If they also swabbed the random sample for C-19 diagnostic tests, they’d also have an estimate of the number of infected asymptomatics who are currently in circulation in NY.

OK, it was a missed opportunity.

But, let’s not fret.

We can squeeze the data to get a rough-cut estimate of  the number of infected asymptomatics who are currently in circulation in NY.

Let’s do some arithmetic …

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing | 4 Comments »

NY’s missed testing opportunity

April 24, 2020

NY’s antibody testing program is highly commendable … and, it’’s already generating some very useful data.

But, I wonder..

Why aren’t they swabbing the same people for coronavirus diagnostic tests?

Doing so would tell us how many asymptomatic “hidden carriers” are currently in circulation.

My view: that’s one of the most important pieces of missing information … especially if it’s done on a periodic basis, say, weekly.

Would give us a good sense of how infectious the population is right now.

Posted in Covid-19 Testing | 2 Comments »

April 24: C-19 UPDATE

April 24, 2020

Today’s Headlines
Death toll over 50,000
2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast 67,641 by Aug. 4

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,562 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,229

967 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
50,243  Worldometer
49,963   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

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STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 27,928  56% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 42,376 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 268 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 46 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 748  +50

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »