Archive for April 8th, 2020

Why is New York ablaze while California is just simmering?

April 8, 2020

That’s a question that I’ve been pondering…
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The WSJ ran a piece titled “The Art of Coronavirus Modeling”.

Its main point was that statistical models are “tools, not oracles” … that the drastic recent changes in the IHME Model’s forecasts is evidence that models are, by their nature, imperfect and shouldn’t be used as sole determinants of policy.

I agree with all of that, but it’s not new news.

What caught my attention was that the article offered up some clues and conjecture about a  question that has been on my mind: Why is New York ablaze with coronavirus while California is just simmering?

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Here’s what the WSJ offered up on the question…

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 3 Comments »

Some determinants of urban viral contagion…

April 8, 2020

In a prior post, we recapped the IHME Murray Model — the coronavirus forecasting model foundational to the Coronavirus Task Force’s thinking.

And, in a subsequent post, we concluded that — given historical precedents — data modelers would be well served including some measure of urbanization in their models.

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Digging a bit deeper, I came across a study by a group called Heartland Forward.

The study report has lots of data, charts and maps.

The study proposes determinants of high rates of contagious infection … some of which are directly related to urbanization.

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April 8: COVIDS-19 Tracker

April 8, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
12,857  Worldometer
12,911   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,415 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 21,351 on 4/7  

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1,970 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note at end of post
Big spike up in DNDs
1,031 in NY+NJ+CT

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,212 on April 12  Revised DOWN 918 on 4/7

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State-by-State Detail

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