Archive for April 5th, 2020

Trump quadruples down on Hydroxychloroquine…

April 5, 2020

… and broaches the “elephant in the room” re: ventilators

Just in case you missed yesterday’s Task Force press conference …

As usual, there was lots of repetition — from prior days and within the news conference.  Reporters asked the same questions. Trump gave approximately the same answers and the medical scientists gave the same dignified but elusive answers.

There were a couple of very noteworthy takeaways:

1. Trump kept cycling back to Hydroxychloroquine.

His basic line of reasoning: Now that we have “millions of doses” available, a lengthening list of positive “anecdotes” and small-scale studies, decades of safe usage …  and nothing else in our therapeutic quiver … “what have we got to lose”.

Fauci’s repeated answer: because there haven’t been large-scale, closely supervised, double-blind randomized, controlled tests … is, in my opinion, sounding increasingly out-of-touch with the realities of this war.

I was waiting for some reporter to ask Fauci: “Have their been randomized controlled tests on  the effect of locking down a country?” Of course, that didn’t happen.

Somewhat exasperated, Fauci resorted to “Doctors can prescribe it if they want.” … which is only partially true since Cuomo and a couple of other governors have limited HC  prescriptions to hospitalized patients.

Cutting to the chase: Oddly, Trump’s presidency is now largely dependent on the success of hydroxychloroquine.  If it works to substantially blunt the pandemic’s impact, he wins.  If it doesn’t, he loses.


2. Trump explicitly broached a very sensitive question regarding ventilators.


April 5: COVID-19 Tracker

April 5, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
8,454  Worldometer
8,503   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   



1,051 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16   


Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs has fallen out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. Starting today, we are validity checking the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and doing our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

State-by-State Data