Archive for April 6th, 2020

“Pandemics naturally thrive most in big cities”

April 6, 2020

In a prior post, we recapped the IHME Murray Model — the coronavirus forecasting model foundational to the Coronavirus Task Force’s thinking.

The model’s developers make clear that the model does not consider either population density or the utilization of public mass transit.

In other words, it doesn’t consider the effect of urbanization.

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I expect that the model will be refined to consider the urbanization variable since Dr. Birx keeps saying “we’ll be drilling down to the county level” …  and since some pandemic historians note that pandemics naturally thrive most in big cities.

Here’s what they’re talking about…

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Fact Check: Cuomo was told in 2015 that NY would be15,783 ventilators short…

April 6, 2020

… and, he still hasn’t taken NY-based Remington Arms’ offer to make ventilators.
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It has become a daily ritual: Gov. Cuomo warns the NY needs 40,000 ventilators and the Federal Government (think: Trump) is letting him down.

He conveniently forgets to mention that  his own public health task force told him that NY would be 15,783 ventilators short if hit by a “severe” pandemic … and provided him with “ethical” guidelines for rationing ventilators if faced with a shortfall.

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More specifically …

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April 6: COVID-19 Tracker

April 6, 2020

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
9,620  Worldometer
9,648   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
93,531 by August 4   

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1,166 Daily New Deaths   Worldometer
See technical note below chart

IHME Model  Peak DND Projection:
2,644 on April 16 

Dotted red line is 3-day moving average
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Technical note: Worldometer’s calculation of DNDs sometimes falls out of sync with their reporting of Total Deaths. Probably due to reporting issues on granular state data. We are validity check the Worldometer Total Deaths against the JHU reporting … and do our own calculation of DNDs by comparing day-to-day Total Death numbers.

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State-by-State Data

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