Archive for April 18th, 2020

What Drs. Fauci & Birx said about testing…

April 18, 2020

I watched, so that you wouldn’t have to…
=============

During the press conference yesterday, Drs. Fauci, Birx, et. al., gave a technical presentation intended to educate us on their testing plan (and fend off critics like Gov. Cuomo).

image

In general, I was frustrated by the presentation which was way more “academic” and credential-building (e.g. “what we did re: HIV”) than practical (i.e. here’s what we’re going to do and how it impacts you) … and, still didn’t answer many of my questions (e.g. going forward, exactly who will be tested? how & where will they be tested? how will the test results be used? how can I get a test? what are my odds of getting infected? why does testing require a doctors Rx note? what about the false negative problem?).

As expected he dufass politico reporters asked no meaningful drill-down questions.

That said, I drew some significant takeaways from the presentation …

============

Point of emphasis: There is adequate testing capacity deployed to support the phased Open America plan. But, “the full potential of testing capacity still needs to be unlocked.” Birx

But, testing  is only a supporting component of the plan and is not “the panacea”   … it’s a diagnostic tool and a source of information for policy-setting … more testing will not stop the virus … it will help for priority-setting but we’ll still dependent on social-distancing and therapeutic interventions.

More specifically…

(more…)

April 18: C-19 UPDATE

April 18, 2020

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths

2,535 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
UP slightly from prior day; level w/ prior 3  

1,347 in NY+NJ+CT   53% of Total US
UP slightly from prior day 

image

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
37.175 
Worldometer
37,079 
JHU

Note: Both Worldometer and JHU have “absorbed”  the NY addition of “presumed” C-19 deaths.  So, there is a step increase in cumulative deaths (starting on April 16). Daily New Death counts are not effected.

image

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

=============

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 22,007  58% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 31,996 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 201 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
  • MD 425 Total Deaths  +76 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)