The past couple of days’ data suggest that, nationally, we may have reached an apex for this wave of the coronavirus.
So, I thought it would be a good time to revisit the longer term projections…
I think that there’s a lot of misunderstanding about the oft referenced IHME forecast which is currently pegged at slightly more than 60,000 (down from an original projection of about 80,000).
Two key points:
1. 60,000 is IHME’s best case … it assumes that all states are locked down until Aug.4 (which isn’t going to happen) … even then, as presented on the above chart, the IHME confidence interval ranges from 60,000 (most likely) to 140,000 (worst case)
2. The forecast is the cumulative number of deaths until August 4 … it’s not the number of cumulative deaths over the life of the virus (or even this wave of the virus) … certainly, there will be additional deaths after August 4.
Important: Keep in mind that “flattening the curve” doesn’t reduce the total number of projected deaths, it just spreads them over a longer time period.
Any reduction to that total will be due to the virus dying out naturally, introduction of a virus neutralizing vaccine or introduction of life-saving drugs or therapies.
For discussion purposes, let’s hang our hat on 60,000 and August 4..
Right now, we’re sitting at roughly 40,000 deaths to date (40,565 to be precise).
Pause for a moment and consider the implications of those last 2 sentences.
The Homa Files 