Archive for April 22nd, 2020

Let’s make the Task Force press conferences watchable…

April 22, 2020

A streamlined cast of presenters and an audience filled with subject matter experts would make the updates more informative.
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I am a news and data junkie, I am immersed in the coronavirus situation, I am Trump-tolerant and I am rooting for us to get out of this health-economic crisis as soon as possible with the fewest deaths and least economic damage.

So, I watch most minutes of most of the daily Task Force press conferences.

I am a passive TV watcher, even during sports events in which I have emotional (or financial) equity. I don’t cheer wildly for TD passes or yell at the TV when there’s an interception.

That said, I am on the verge of throwing shoes at the TV during the Task Force press conferences.

Note: Don’t say “stop watching”.  That would just be conceding defeat.

What’s the rub?

They are too long with too much predictable politics and too little pertinent new coronavirus information.

From the podium, there are too many vaguely supported reassurances and too much repetitive in loco parentis. I get that I’m supposed to wash my hands and stay at home.

From the gallery of reporters, there are too many questions that are politically-skewed, gotcha-intended, off topic or just plain stupid.

Note: I know that teachers (and retired teachers) are supposed to say “there’s no such thing as a dumb question”.  People who offer that admonition obviously didn’t sit through any of my classes.

So, what to do?

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 1 Comment »

If test kits are scarce, let’s test the right people!

April 22, 2020

Test kits are scarce and we are testing the wrong people.
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First, a quick primer on testing …

A testing system has two major components: the analysis machine … and a “kit” containing all the necessary chemicals (aka. “reagents”) and supplies (e.e. nose swabs).

Simple analogy: The analysis machine is like your trusty Keurig cup-at-a-time … and the testing kits are like the coffee pods that go into the machine. You need both parts to do a test or make a cup of coffee.

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There are plenty of analysis machines around, but they are made by several different suppliers … all of whom have uniquely different test kits.

None of the suppliers routinely carry a pandemic level of kits in inventory … the economics of doing so would be burdensome and some of the reagents have shelf lives. Ramping up to pandemic levels is a challenge because many of the kits’ components come from, you guessed it, China.

So, we’ve got plenty of lab capacity (analysis machines) … but a shortage of test kits. That makes the test kits the constraint or “pacing item”.

The shortage will eventually be filled, but until then, it’s critical that the scarce kits be used to test the right people.

We’re not doing that …

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 2 Comments »

April 22: C-19 >> ALERT! <<

April 22, 2020

A very bad day…
> Highest Daily Deaths toll so far
> IHME forecast  UPPED to 65,976

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
IHME forecast  UP to 65,976

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,824 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> UP from prior days
> Highest DNDs total so far
> 7-day average 2,214

1,232 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US
> UP 44% from prior day                    

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
45,343  Worldometer
45,075   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
65,976 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 5,668 on 4/21

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STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 25,869  57% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 38,682 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 242 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
  • MD 562 Total Deaths  +46 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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