Archive for September 19th, 2020

Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23


Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

The election just got messier!

September 19, 2020

To say the least, RBG’s death is disruptive

Here are my takeaways from last night’s chatter:

1. Roes v. Wade is on the ballot again.

Politely stated, the make-up of the SCOTUS will surpass COVID and law & order as the most important issue.  That will rally the evangelicals (for Trump) and the pro-choice crowd (to Biden).

My hunch: The pro choice crowd is already in Biden’s camp.  Evangelicals will go from lukewarm on Trump to “hold your nose” when voting.


2. Trump will certainly go forward with a quick nomination, probably pre-vetted Amy Coney Barrett.

For Trump, it’s  a manhood issue and it puts his legacy is at stake.

The Dems will “Kavanaugh” her for sure.  But doing so, will rally some suburban women back to Trump.


3. Election voting issues will largely be determined by lower courts

Late & questionable mail-in ballots will be this election’s hanging chads that determine who wins.

It’s very unlikely that confirmation can happen before or soon after the election.

So, any issues that make it to the SCOTUS are likely to score a 4-4 tie … with CJ Roberts voting with the liberals.

That means that lower court decisions will stand.

Trump’s lower court-loading may work to his advantage

Venue shopping will key.  Expect the Dems to overload the liberal 9th circuit.


4. Confirmation hangs with Collins & Romney

Romney hates Trump and vote against any nomination … even one that is completely consistent with his few moral principles.

Collins will likely lose her election because she cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.

Losing frees her to vote her conscience and gives her a chance to stick it to the Maine voters who rejected her.

Ironically, Trump may benefit from a Collins’ loss.


This is going to be very interesting….

Sept. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 19, 2020

203,138 Deaths-to-Date

920 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 820     (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,530  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,3891


Details below…