Archive for September 8th, 2020

Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…

September 8, 2020

He was for them before he was against them.
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You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.

In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.

In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.

One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate

I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.

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Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…

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Sept. 8: Election Odds & Polls

September 8, 2020

Biden +8 in odds, +7 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.8  Trump 45.7  Lead +8.1

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23
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PredictIt   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 44  Lead 15

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9  Trump 42.8  Lead 7.3
Undecided 8.0

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 71  Trump 28  Lead 43

 

Sept. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 8, 2020

193,534 Deaths-to-Date

586 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 836    (peak 2.229 April 23)

25,325  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,874

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Details below…

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