Archive for October, 2020

Oct. 31: Election – Battlegrounds

October 31, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  48.9  Trump  45.8  +3.1

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has Trump leading in AZ, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has Biden leading in WI, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

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If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … controversial counting will drag on

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 31, 2020

235,153 Deaths-to-Date

932 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 838     (peak 2.229 April 23)

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Confirmed Cases

101,012  New Cases
> 7-day average  77,822

> Highest day        101,012  Oct. 30
> April 24 peak      36,291
> June 8 low point  17,414

Currently Hospitalized

46,688  Current level
> Highest day    59,840  April 15
> Lowest point   27,895  June 14
> Recent peak    59,715  July 23

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Oct. 30: Election – Battlegrounds

October 30, 2020

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.0  Trump  45.8  +3.2

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

> RCP has the race tied in FL, Biden leading in the other 5 battlegrounds.

> Trafalgar has WI in a statistical tie, Trump leading in the other 5 battlegrounds

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If I had to bet today:

> Trump takes AZ, NC, FL … and drags Tillis & McSally to victory.

> Biden takes MI and WI … James pulls an upset in MI

> PA is winner-takes-all … advantage Trump, but too close to call … counting will drag on

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 30: Election – National Polls

October 30, 2020

The devil is in the details !
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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 43.7   Lead 7.4

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Takeaways: (1) Biden over 50% (2) Gap is narrowing, but still formidable

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How formidable?

Let’s drill down on the RCP numbers …

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Oct. 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 30, 2020

234,106 Deaths-to-Date

976 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 832       (peak 2.229 April 23)

83,866  New Cases
> 7-day average  74,983

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Details below…

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Seriously: Why the push for a national mask mandate?

October 29, 2020

Biden has made it a focus of his campaign … and, the politico-scientists  are all in.
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For the sake of argument, let’s just accept the WSJ observation that:

Some studies show that widespread use of masks can reduce spread.

Even if masks are only incrementally helpful, they are among the least economically costly and burdensome options for reducing COVID spread.

OK, so there’s potential upside and no significant downside

With that in mind, a recent  WSJ article on “COVID” Fatigue” had a chart that caught my eye.

The high red line below  is the percentage of people who regularly wear masks when they leave home.

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Bottom line: Gallup says that 91% of respondents said they wear masks in public settings … that’s up from 80% who said so in May.

Let’s dig a little deeper on those numbers…

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Oct. 29: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 29, 2020

233,123 Deaths-to-Date

1,040 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 830       (peak 2.229 April 23)

79,638  New Cases
> 7-day average  72,780

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Details below…

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Lessons learned from the White House COVID outbreak…

October 28, 2020

Now that the dust has kinda settled from the White House COVID outbreak, it’s a good time to step back and take inventory of lessons learned.

For what they’re worth, here are my takeaways:

> Screening — via temperature checks & rapid tests — doesn’t protect against viral breaches.

There are 2 stark realities:

  1. The tests are blunt instruments that are highly susceptible to false negative results.
  2. It only takes 1 infected person (i.e. an “index case”) to start the viral chain reaction.

So, other defense mechanisms (e.g. keeping a safe distance — especially from unmasked strangers) are absolutely necessary.

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> Applying a Grandma Homa adage: Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it initially seems.

On a practical level, the WH outbreak wasn’t all that bad.

From what I’ve heard or read, about 30 people ended up testing positive, but …

  • Nobody died (which is slightly better than the 99% overall survival rate)
  • Only 2 people were hospitalized (Trump & Christie)
  • Nobody is showing any after-effects now — especially a re-invigorated Trump who seems to have benefited from a couple of full night’s sleep.

As a doctor-friend of mine likes to say: “Getting infected isn’t a death sentence”.

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> The key: Find it fast and hit it hard!

The biggest advantage that the White House guests had was that they had ready access to re-testing via methods more reliable than the rapid tests … and, Trump’s infection lit a fire under all attendees to get tested, pronto.

That’s probably the best example yet of self-identified contact tracing.

Everybody who got infected (whether at the event or elsewhere) “found it fast”.

And, at least in Trump’s case, they “hit it hard”.

For months, Trump had been headlining the importance — and speedy development — of effective therapeutics.

When talking vaccine development, he usually added “… and therapeutics”.

Little did he know that he’d become a poster-child for the cause.

Whether it was the Regeneron or the uber-steroids that he was dosed, it’s indisputable that the combo of therapeutics got him on his feet and back in action at record speed.

Bottom line: Find it fast and hit it hard!

My view: Fast & hard is a resolute principle whether the disease is COVID … or, from our family experience, breast cancer … or, any other life-threatening disease.

 

Oct. 28: Election – Battlegrounds

October 28, 2020

Biden leading in RCP Poll-of-Polls, but Trump closing gap.
Trump leading in Trafalgar poll (by > 2 pts. in AZ, FL, NC)

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.2  Trump  45.7  +3.5

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 28: Election Polls & Odds

October 28, 2020

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.6  Trump 43.5   Lead 7.1

RCP – Poll of Polls – National – Latest 4 Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 45.5   Lead 4.5

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.2  Trump 45.7  Lead 3.5

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RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 64.2  Trump 34.5   Lead 29.7

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 63  Trump 41   Lead 22

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 88  Trump 12  Lead 76

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Oct. 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 28, 2020

232,084 Deaths-to-Date

1,039 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 862       (peak 2.229 April 23)

75,072  New Cases
> 7-day average  69,751

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Details below…

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Face it: It’s really Trump vs. Kamala … not Joe.

October 27, 2020

And, the likely consequences are downright frightening.
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Let’s start with a sad personal story.

My mother had Alzheimer’s for most of the last two decades of her life.  It’s a devastating disease that I’d never wish on anyone (or their families).

I distinctly remember the early-on visit to a neurologist when we suspected that she might be experiencing more than senior moments.

One of his diagnostic questions to her was “Who is the president of the United States?”

My mom admitted that she wasn’t sure and answered: “It’s either Roosevelt or Kennedy.”

Since it was the mid-1980s, the correct answer would have been: “Ronald Reagan”.

With that image indelibly planted in my brain, Joe Biden’s latest gaffe stuck a chord with me.

It wasn’t funny … it was sad … and very serious.

During a basement drop-in for his “I Will Vote” virtual concert, Biden asked:

“What kind of a country are we going to be with 4 more years of George, uh, George…”

Joe-s wife-handler can be seen mouthing under-her-breath: “Trump, Trump, Trump”

And Biden continued: “… what kind of world we will be in if Trump gets re-elected.”

click to view the 12-second video.
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So, what makes this incident so serious?

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Oct. 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 27, 2020

231,036 Deaths-to-Date

520 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 837     (peak 2.229 April 23)

67,447  New Cases
> 7-day average  67,582

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Details below…

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Election: Battleground States

October 26, 2020

Headline: Biden leading in RCP Poll-of-Polls, but Trump closing gap.  Trump leading in Trafalgar poll. 

RCP Average – 6 Battlegrounds
Biden  49.3  Trump  43.5  +3.8

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Battlegrounds – State-by-State

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Technical Note:

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a proprietary protocol that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Oct. 26: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 26, 2020

230,497 Deaths-to-Date

429 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 824     (peak 2.229 April 23)

59,752  New Cases
> 7-day average  63,093

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Details below…

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Oct. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 25, 2020

230,064 Deaths-to-Date

780 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 827     (peak 2.229 April 23)

77,966  New Cases
> 7-day average  62,869

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Details below…

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The other potential vote-switching debate moment …

October 24, 2020

This one may even sway some suburban women.
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Most pundits agree that Biden’s Freudian slip that his goal-certain is to kill the oil & gas industry … the only open-switch is the time frame.

My view: there was at least one other potential vote-swaying debate moment.

About 9 minutes into the debate, on the subject of COVID. Trump said:

I say we’re learning to live with it. We have no choice.

We can’t lock ourselves up in a basement like Joe does. He has the ability to lock himself up. I don’t know, he’s obviously made a lot of money, someplace, but he has this thing about living in a basement.

People can’t do that.

I said, you know, this is dangerous. And you can catch it.

I caught it. I learned a lot. I learned a lot, great doctors, great hospitals. And now, I recovered … 99.9% of young people recover. 99% of people recover.

We have to recover.

We can’t close up our nation, we have to open our schools, and we can’t close up our nation, or you’re not going to have a nation.

A couple of minutes later, Trump followed up:

We can’t keep this country closed.

It is a massive country with a massive economy.

People are losing their jobs, they’re committing suicide. There’s depression, alcohol, drugs at a level that nobody’s ever seen before. There’s abuse, tremendous abuse.

We have to open our country.

You know I’ve said it often — the cure cannot be worse than the problem itself, and that’s what’s happening.

He (Biden) wants to close down.

He’ll close down the country if one person in our, in our massive bureaucracy says we should close it down.

Here’s my take…

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The best summary of Biden’s tax plan…

October 24, 2020

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Time for bed?

October 24, 2020

Most telling image from the Trump-Biden debate.
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Remember when Bush-the-Father got skewed for looking at his watch during one of his debates?

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click to view video clip
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So, who do you want going up against Putin, Xi and the world’s other crazy leaders?

Oct. 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 24, 2020

229,284 Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 809     (peak 2.229 April 23)

81,143  New Cases
> 7-day average  59,452

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Details below…

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Flashback: Politifacts’ 2009 “Lie of the Year”

October 23, 2020

Remember Obama’s infamous line: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep it … and, your family’s annual healthcare costs will go down by $2,500″
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Biden oft repeated the line when selling ObamaCare … and, reprised it in the primaries when fending off opponents’ Medicare-for-All promises.

Last night , in the final presidential debate, Biden repeated the claim, emphasizing that no one lost their private health insurance under Obamacare.

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So,what’s the rub?

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Biden asked Trump to do something … and, he did!

October 23, 2020

Re: fracking … even CNN says Biden was lying.

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During the debate, Trump pressed Biden on fracking.

Biden claimed: “I never said that I was opposed to fracking.”

Trump countered: “Joe, you said it on tape.”

Biden: Show the tape – put it on your web site.on his website.

Here it is, Joe …

click to view 1-minute video collageimage

What are the pollsters who got 2016 right saying about the election?

October 23, 2020

There are 2 pollsters who are generally credited with getting the 2016 election right: IBD/TIFF and the Trafalgar Group.

The Trafalgar Group leans right, emphasizes state polls & predictions (especially the swing states) and claims to have a magic sauce that elicits replies from the “shy Trump voters”.

Here’s what Trafalgar is currently reporting:

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Here’s how to read the chart and what it means…

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Oct. 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 23, 2020

228,282 Deaths-to-Date

815 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 799     (peak 2.229 April 23)

68,445  New Cases
> 7-day average  57,619

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Details below…

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Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….

October 22, 2020

Controversial topic, but since Obama raised it yesterday while campaigning for Biden, let’s see what the data says.
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On the Biden campaign trail, Obama says that he (and Biden) eased the racial divide … and that Trump is blew the gap wide open.

What do the numbers day?

click graph to enlarge
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Well, according to Gallup, that’s only partially right…

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Oct. 22: Election Polls & Odds

October 22, 2020

Headlines: Final debate tonight. 
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Biden +7.5 in national polls
+4.1 in battlegrounds
60/40 in betting odds 

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.6  Trump 43.1   Lead 7.5
Undecided/Other 6.3

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>Trafalgar – Latest National Poll
Biden 47.5  Trump 46.4  Lead 1.1
Undecided/Other 6.1
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> RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.4  Trump 45.3  Lead 4.1
Undecided/Other 5.4
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RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 63.7   Trump 36.8   Lead 26.9

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 64  Trump 41   Lead 23

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 13  Lead 74

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Oct. 22: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 22, 2020

227,315 Deaths-to-Date

1,131 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 784       (peak 2.229 April 23)

58,433  New Cases
> 7-day average  57,028

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Details below…

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America’s political polarization in 4 charts …

October 21, 2020

It’s no secret that American politics has become increasingly – and maybe, irreversibly – polarized.

Obama is hitting the campaign trail for Biden.

I expect that Obama will lay blame for the political polarization on Trump and his band of ignorant deplorables.

In anticipation, let’s look at some inconvenient facts and put them in perspective…

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Way back in 2014, Meet the Press host Chuck Todd observed:

Polarization is no longer just polluting the system — it’s paralyzing it.

The deepening divide between the right and the left has largely hollowed out the center of American politics.

Gone are the politicians who once occupied the large “middle” and the voters who once gravitated to them.

Todd’s observations were true then, and they’re true now.

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The Pew Research Center has tracked party identity and ideology for decades.

One way they do it is by scoring the Republicans and Democrats on a 10-item scale of political values.

Based on the latest Pew data (from 2017), here’s where we stand:

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What the chart means …

Democrats cluster to the left, Republicans cluster to the right.

Less than 10 percent in each party overlaps ideologically with the other side.

That’s where we are.

How did we get here?

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Huntergate won’t change any voters minds…

October 21, 2020

… but it may swing the election.
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Here’s my take:

1. Biden made an unforced campaign error by  trading on his son Beau’s memory when he tried to tag Trump with being insulting to the military.  That move opened the door to dragging son Hunter into the conversation. Family members became fair game.

2. For sure, Biden is guilty of allowing his VP influence to be compromised (by Hunter) … and probably profited from the deals personally.

3. Most (all?) voters assume that most (all?) elected officials trade on their positions and influence for personal gain.

4. So, few (no?) Biden voters will jump off his campaign train just because he’s revealed to be a typical political sleaze … especially since most voters think the transgressions — even those with China — are no harm, no foul … and, because Biden was “just trying to help his wayward son.”.

But…

Huntergate has got to be weighing heavily on Joe’s already diminishing state of mind.

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Oct. 21: Election Polls & Odds

October 21, 2020

Headlines: Trump rallying, Biden bunkering … Hunter mess breaking thru MSM-Big Tech censorship … Obama called in to help
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Biden +8.6 in national polls
+4.0 in battlegrounds
60/40 in betting odds 

RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.1  Trump 42.5   Lead 8.6
Undecided 6.4

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Latest Polls
Biden 50.0  Trump 43.3  Lead 6.3
Undecided 6.3
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.3  Trump 45.3  Lead 4.0
Undecided 5.4
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RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.9   Trump 38.7   Lead 23.2

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

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Oct. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 21, 2020

226,053 Deaths-to-Date

831 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 735    (peak 2.229 April 23)

59,887  New Cases
> 7-day average  56,956

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Details below…

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Even more unsettled (and unsettling) science…

October 20, 2020

After the WHO & CDC have done a couple of u-turns (and full 360s) on masks, what’s the current “truth”?

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Let’s start with a basic question, how is COVID transmitted?

Initially, the science community (think: Fauci channeling the WHO and China’s disinformation) told us not to worry … that COVID was not transmitted human-to-human.

Then, we were told that it was transmitted human to human (to human) … via large droplets that contaminate surfaces (think: countertops and doorknobs) and hands … and transfer by handshaking and face-touching.

We bought into that … we started washing our hands and cleared store shelves of hand sanitizers and surface disinfectants (which are still in short supply).

Then, we were told that COVID is transmitted via large droplets that are delivered when infected people cough, sneeze and spray-talk on us.

That conclusion ushered in social distancing and masks went from “won’t help, might hurt” to “best line of defense”.  Most recently, CDC Director Redfield — apparently auditioning for a role as the village idiot –testified that wearing a mask is more of a viral deterrent than vaccines.

Then, a short-lived CDC guidance revision threatened to upset a big apple cart.

Here’s the back story…

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Election: Odds & Polls

October 20, 2020

Biden +22.7 in odds, +8.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.6   Trump 38.9   Lead 22.7

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 40   Lead 25

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.4   Lead 8.9
Undecided 6.3

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.1  Trump 45.0  Lead 4.1
Undecided 5.9
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 89  Trump 12  Lead 77

Oct. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 20, 2020

225,174 Deaths-to-Date

400 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 738    (peak 2.229 April 23)

50,024  New Cases
> 7-day average  55,494

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Details below…

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The spirit of Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley lives on…

October 19, 2020

Biden channels the political philosophy of Boss Daley.
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If the story were simply about a cokehead son who frequented “professional” ladies, it wouldn’t deserve much attention.

But, far from being debunked, the hard evidence seems to be piling up that Joe Biden’s son Hunter made millions by trading on his family name and access to his V.P. father … and that Joe granted the necessary access, took actions as V.P. that supported his sons problematic activities … and profited handsomely himself by compromising his oath of office, the public trust …  and, perhaps, national security.

Of course, Biden isn’t the first politician to get caught doing so.

The Biden revelations brought back memories of my days living in Chicago, circa. 1973…

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Oct. 19: Election Odds & Polls

October 19, 2020

Headlines: Trump rallying, Biden bunkering … Hunter mess breaking thru MSM-Big Tech censorship … Obama called in to help
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Biden +22.6 in odds, +9.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 59.6   Trump 40.9   Lead 18.7

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1    Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 39   Lead 26

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.6   Lead 8.9
Undecided 6.1

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.2  Trump 44.9  Lead 4.3
Undecided 5.9
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

Oct.19: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 19, 2020

224,728 Deaths-to-Date

447 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 719    (peak 2.229 April 23)

44,188  New Cases
> 7-day average  54,889

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Details below…

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Oct. 18: Election Odds & Polls

October 18, 2020

Headline: Trump is back on the campaign trail
… start of a comeback or a futile final gasp?

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Biden +22.6 in odds, +9.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.6   Trump 39.0   Lead 22.6

Week Ago:     66.0   34.3  +31.7 Oct. 12
Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 39   Lead 26

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 66 39 +27

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.3  Trump 42.3   Lead 9.0
Undecided 6.4

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.3  Trump 44.9  Lead 4.5
Undecided 5.4
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 87  Trump 12  Lead 75

Oct. 18: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 18, 2020

224,278 Deaths-to-Date

634 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 719    (peak 2.229 April 23)

53,903  New Cases
> 7-day average  54,568

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Details below…

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Oct. 17: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 17, 2020

223,619 Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 713    (peak 2.229 April 23)

68,454  New Cases
> 7-day average  53,708

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Details below…

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NY Times: Positive Covid test results misleading…

October 16, 2020

Up to 90% of people testing positive carry inconsequential amounts of the virus
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When COVID case counts surged in July, most “experts” said that — after a time delay — fatalities would surge, too.

They didn’t, causing a lot of head-scratching.

Now the consensus explanation for a statistically significant decline in the infection-to-fatality rate (IFR)  is that (1) more asymptomatic people (i.e. minimally effected) were being tested (2) those testing positive were skewed to to younger age groups with IFR rates, and (3) more effective medical treatment and therapeutic drugs were saving more seriously effected patients.

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The New York Times has served up a scientific explanation…

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Oct. 16: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 16, 2020

222,688 Deaths-to-Date

845 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 721    (peak 2.229 April 23)

64,808  New Cases
> 7-day average  52,357

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Details below…

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“What the Pandemic Has Taught Us About Science”

October 15, 2020

Bias, overconidence and politics can sometimes lead scientists astray.
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That’s where the WSJ comes out in an essay by Matt Ridley — author of “How Innovation Flourishes”.

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Mr. Ridley makes a couple of transcending points:

> Organized science is indeed able to distill sufficient expertise out of debate in such a way as to solve practical problems. But, science is a flawed and all too human affair.

> Scientists are fallible.They are not omniscient demigods whose opinions automatically outweigh all disagreement.

> There is no such thing as “the science”.  Rather, there are different scientific views that need to be tested and debated.

More specifically…

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Oct. 15: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 15, 2020

221,824 Deaths-to-Date

951 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 727    (peak 2.229 April 23)

57,930  New Cases
> 7-day average  50,715

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NYT: “Pandemic will be over sooner than expected”

October 14, 2020

Begrudging credit finally given to Trump’s Operation Warp Speed
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Donald G. McNeil Jr. is a science reporter who has covered epidemics and diseases for the NYT since 1976.

He confesses that he has been “a consistently gloomy Cassandra, reporting on the catastrophe that experts saw coming: that the virus would go pandemic, that Americans were likely to die in large numbers.”

His view now: After taking the obligatory Trump-shot that, “with stronger leadership, the death toll would have been far lower”, McNeil concedes that:

Experts are saying, with genuine confidence, that the pandemic in the United States will be over far sooner than they expected, possibly by the middle of next year.

Why the sudden gush of optimism?

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Oct. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 14, 2020

220,905 Deaths-to-Date

787 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 739    (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,652  New Cases
> 7-day average  49,399

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Details below…

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What if the US had “gone Sweden” on COVID?

October 13, 2020

Let’s look at some numbers..
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The Barrington Declaration — signed by thousands of scientists and medical practitioners (and, of course, censored by Google, et. al.) — has really stimulated my thinking about the past & Biden-prospective COVID lockdowns.

For a summary of the Barrington Declaration, see: Which scientists to believe & to follow?

The current COVID death counts are eye-opening:

The U.S. has accumulated about 665 deaths per million … Sweden has accumulated 585 deaths per million — a rate that is about 12% lower than the U.S. .. and whopping 66% lower than the heavily locked down state of New York.

I’d call those numbers statistically significant.

Now, let’s look at the numbers from a different angle…

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Oct. 13: Election Odds & Polls

October 13, 2020

Headline: Trump is back on the campaign trail
… start of a comeback or a futile final gasp?

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Biden +31.7 in odds, +10.2 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 66.0   Trump 34.3   Lead 31.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   67.3  32.7  +39.7  Oct. 11

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 64  Trump 40   Lead 24

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best Oct.11
: 64 40 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 51.8  Trump 41.6   Lead 10.2
Undecided 6.6

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 49.4  Trump 44.6  Lead 4.8
Undecided 6.0
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 86  Trump 13  Lead 73

Oct.13: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 13, 2020

220,011 Deaths-to-Date

316 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 720    (peak 2.229 April 23)

45,791  New Cases
> 7-day average  47,879

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Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

October 12, 2020

President Trump is trailing badly in all of the polls, right?

On one measure that makes sense since.

According to a Gallup survey, registered voters say that Biden has the personality and leadership qualities that a president should have — 49% to 44%. (Upper bars)   

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But, that gap is smaller than might be expected and neither candidate gets a majority of voters thinking they have the right stuff.

And, Trump has the upper hand on “agree with him on the issues” — 49% to 46%. (Lower bars above)

Hmmm.

So, how do people feel on the crux question:

Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?

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