Archive for November 23rd, 2020

So, how risky is a Thanksgiving gathering?

November 23, 2020

Let’s throw some math at the question…

It’s not a conscious thing, but these days, our brains are constantly running risk assessments:

  1. What’s the likelihood that I get exposed to COVID?
  2. What’s the likelihood that I get infected?
  3. How bad will it be if I do get infected?

Unfortunately, “the science” hasn’t been providing us with much useful “data to follow” on those questions.

So far, the best data is on question #3: How bad will it be if I do get infected?

CDC: 95% survivability rate if over 70 … higher with no symptoms, no co-morbidities or younger.


Those are pretty good odds, right?

Today, let’s look at question #1 — the likelihood of getting exposed to the virus, say, at a Thanksgiving gathering.


Nov. 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

November 23, 2020

262,694 Deaths-to-Date

864 Daily New Deaths    (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 1,552    (peak 2.229 April 23)


Confirmed Cases

135,593  New Cases
> 7-day average  169,055

Currently Hospitalized

83,870  Current level

> Prior Peaks: 59,700 Apr 12, July 24
> Prior Lows:  28,000 June 21, Sept 20