Archive for September, 2022

Are Dems hoping that Ian will be DeSantis’ Katrina?

September 30, 2022

You bet they are … but, so far, DeSantis is rising to the occasion.
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Hurricane Ian has been devastating … and the recovery will be a Herculean, multiyear challenge.

That said, I’ve been impressed with the planning and preparations that Florida had put in place (e.g. reportedly 30,000 electrical linemen from 31 states).

So far, Gov. DeSantis has demonstrated strong leadership … his press conferences have been informative and appropriately tempered between “this is catastrophic” and “keep the faith”.

Since the initial recovery actions appear to be on track, Biden, of course, has been awakened to grab a share the spotlight.

But, Joe will be Joe.

For the couple of days before the hurricane hit, Biden wasn’t taking calls from Florida area codes.

When the press started asking why, he connected with DeSantis and signed some EOs to release some recovery money from the Federal coffers.

Then came Biden’s performance at FEMA…

After reading well-scripted remarks from his trusty teleprompter, Biden just couldn’t help himself and started lashing out at oil companies and gas station owners … laying the groundwork for pinning any gas price hikes between now and the election on them.

When asked about his relationship with DeSantis, Biden just called the question irrelevant.

And in a recurring Biden senior moment, he closed by wandering off the stage in the wrong direction.

Note in minute-clip below how the FEMA Administrator tried to shepherd him … but he scampered out of her reach.

And, note how the FEMA Administrator and DHS Director Alejandro Mayorkas chuckle (behind the wanderer’s back)

click to viewimage

Please, Lord, make it Biden versus DeSantis in 2024.

Posted in Biden - gaffes & lies, DeSantis, Ron, Hurrican Ian | Leave a Comment »

Polling: Focus on Likely voters, “top boxes” and Independents.

September 26, 2022

They are the best predictors…
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I’m a fan of the Trafalgar Group’s polls.

Admittedly, Trafalgar leans right, but I like that:

> They screen for “likely voters’ … not the less predictable “registered voters” who may lack voting “enthusiasm”.

> They provide “top box data” … that is, data isolating highly predictive “strong” feelings

Why this is significant?

Many market researchers argue for the ”top box effect”.

That is, they think that the answers given by respondents who feel “strongly” on a question — one way or the other — have higher predictive value than the answers from respondents who may lean in a direction but don’t have particularly strong feelings.

The difference between the scores from respondents who are “strongly favorable’ and those who are “strongly unfavorable” is sometimes referred to as the “net promoter index”.

For more detail, see the HBR classic: The One Number that You Need to Grow.

> They separate responses by party affiliation … providing a way to check the “mix” of Dems, GOPs and Independents … and allows a focused look at independents who are “swing voters” and are less likely to cast party-lemming votes.

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OK, so what do Trafalgar’s most recent polls say?

First, let’s dissect Biden’s overall approval numbers:

  • Overall, Biden’s total approval is 15.5 percentage points underwater … 54.8% disapprove to 39.3% approve
  • Only 54% of Biden’s total approvers feel strongly that he is doing a good job, but 92% of his disapprovers are strong disapprovers.
  • So, Biden’s “top box” favorability measure, is underwater by 29.1 percentage points … 50.2% unfavorable to 21.1% favorable

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It gets more interesting when we drill down by party identification:

  • Less than half of Democrats (43.7%) strongly approve of the job that Biden is doing (Row 1, Column a)
  • 80% of Republicans disapprove strongly of the job that Biden is doing (Row 6, Column c)
  • Perhaps most important, a majority of Independents (52%) disapprove strongly of the job that Biden is doing (Row 6, Column b) … putting Biden 35.7% underwater on strong approval (Row 10, Column b)

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Draw your own conclusions re: election implications.

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While we’re at it …

Trafalgar has the GOP up by 5.7 percentage points on the “generic Congressional ballot” (47.2% to 42.2%).

For comparison, the left-leaning WaPo-ABC poll concludes:

In the midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47-46 percent between the Republican and the Democratic candidate (on the generic Congressional ballot).

A likely voter model has a 51-46 percent Republican-Democratic split (5 percentage point).

So, both a left-leaning and a right-leaning poll agree that — when the metric is likely voters — the GOP lead on the generic Congressional ballot is about 5 points. 

Again, draw your own conclusions re: election implications.

Posted in 2022 election, Biden - Job Approval | Leave a Comment »

Why aren’t more people upset about Biden’s college loan giveaway?

September 22, 2022

Simple answer: Majority of Americans aren’t getting stuck with the bill.
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There are lots of principled reasons for opposing Biden’s student loan giveaway.

Most notably, the Executive Order is unconstitutional (especially now that Biden has publicly declared that the pandemic is over) … the plan is unfair to people who didn’t attend college, who worked to pay their way through college or paid off their loans as previously required … and income tax payers have to pick up the trillion dollar tab.

So why does it appear that the program will actually be enacted?

Why isn’t there more of an uproar?

Well, for openers, about 23 million potential voters benefit from Biden’s largesse and may demonstrate their thanks at the polls in November.

But, 23 million is a relatively small number of beneficiaries.

A bigger number is 100 million.

That’s the number of people who haven’t paid any income taxes in the past couple of years.

According to a Tax Policy Center analysis of IRS data, in 2021, only 43% of Americans paid any Federal income taxes.

Conversely, a majority — 57% — paid no Federal income taxes.

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Tax Policy Center

So, except for fairness principles — why should the 57% get worked up over a tax payer funded program?

They won’t be paying the bill…

It’s somebody else’s problem.

It’s as simple as that!

Posted in Bidenomics, Student Loans | Leave a Comment »

WSJ: Closed captions are cool now…

September 20, 2022

Just ask anyone under 40.
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A year or two ago, I was watching a movie with my teenaged granddaughter.

She turned on “closed captions” to “hear” the dialogue more clearly.

Holy cow …  I didn’t know you could do that.

And, I assumed that only some of us seniors had trouble understanding TV dialogue.

Now, as the WSJ puts it:

Closed captions—which display text in the same language as the original audio—have been crucial for a long time for many people with hearing loss.

They’re now a must-have for plenty of people without hearing loss, too, helping them better understand the audio or allowing them to multitask.

More specifically:

In a May survey of about 1,200 Americans:

70% of adult Gen Z respondents (ages 18 to 25) and 53% of millennials (26 to 41) said they watch content with text most of the time.

That’s compared with slightly more than a third of older respondents Source

Among the reasons “legitimizing” captions (beyond hearing loss) are:

  • Separate dialogue from background noise and music
  • “Decipher” accents or muttered dialogue.
  • Avoid disturbing others (at home or at work)
  • “Enjoy” discrepancies between the captions and the voiced dialogue
  • Facilitate multi-tasking (e.g. carrying on a conversation while watching a show)

Bottom line: Captions can add to a viewing experience whether you’re young or old … and are now “de-stigmatized” for aging hearing loss deniers”.

Right on!

Posted in captions - closed captions, hearing - hearing loss | 1 Comment »

Inflation: The micro view…

September 16, 2022

Topline: Overall CPI up 8.3% …  there’s devil in the details … and a couple of bright spots.
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Here are some of the essentials that we all face day-to-day:

> Food at home is up 13.5% … food at employee sites is up 23.7% <= another arrow in the quiver of employees who want to keep working from home

> Gasoline may be down about a buck from the mid-summer peak price ($5 per gallon) … but they’re still up $1.66 (68%) from Biden’s inauguration day ($2.42) and up 26% from a year ago. Source

> Electricity is up almost 15% from a year ago … as we head to the winter heating season.

> Housing is up 6% from a year ago. This is a component worth watching as appreciated values get reelected in lease renewal rental rates.

> New vehicles (cars & trucks) are up 10.1% … used cars are up 7.8% … motor vehicle repair costs are up over 10% … and, oh yeah, the average EV now costs over $60,000

> Vet services (and pet food) are up over 10%

OUCH!

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On the bright (err, “not so dreary”) side:

> Heathcare inflation has been relatively tame (up about 5%) … with “physician service” prices essentially flat year to year.

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And, a few more not-so-bad inflation trends that are underappreciated:

> Underwear, alcoholic beverages and cable TV are only up about 3% year to year.

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Bottom line: if you want to mitigate inflationary pressures, the formula is obvious:  watch more cable TV, in your underwear, while slammin’ your favorite adult beverage.

If that doesn’t work, find some solace knowing eventually the inflationary pain will (pardon the pun) die away;

>Funeral services are only going up 2.6%.

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Yipes!

Posted in Bidenomics, inflation | Leave a Comment »

Inflation: The macro view…

September 15, 2022

Bottom line: Sorry, Joe, it’s not zero!
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Here’s the big picture:

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Diving into the numbers:

> When Biden was inaugurated, the CPI was 262.2 … in August, it was 295.6 … that’s a 12.7% increase over Biden’s 20 month term … on an annualized basis, that’s a 7.22% APR

> In comparison: When Trump was inaugurated, the CPI was 243.6 … when he left office in Jan. 2021, it was 262.2 … that’s a 7.6% increase over Trump’s 4 year term … on an annualized basis, that’s a 1.85% APR

> Cutting the numbers a different way: From Trump’s inauguration to Aug. 2022, the CPI increased 21.3% … 1/3 of the increase occurred during Trump’s run (at 1.85% APR , which the Fed targets for the U.S. long term rate) … and 2/3s of the increase has hit during Biden’s reign (at a 7.22% APR)

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Think about this:

> If inflation had continued at Trump’s APR 1.85% APR), the CPI would be about 270 today … we’d be seeing prices about 10% lower than they are today.

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Ask yourself a variant of Ronald Reagan’s “cut to the chase” question:

Are your pantry, wallet, IRA, 401K, 529s better off today than they were 20 months ago?

Posted in Bidenomics, inflation | Leave a Comment »

Reality bites!

September 14, 2022

This may be the picture that memorializes the Biden presidency.

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If only CNN had also included an insert that read “Inflation 8.3%”

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P.S. Note the network: CNN … which switched away from Biden’s “Malarkey Moment” soon after the split-screen aired.

Posted in Bidenomics, inflation | Leave a Comment »

Ouch: Georgetown rates near the bottom on free speech…

September 13, 2022

Ranked #200 among 203 universities rated.
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Each year, FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education publishes a “comprehensive comparison of the student experience of free speech on their campuses.”

Schools are evaluated along 7 measures of “the free speech climate on the schools’ campus”:

  • Openness to discussing challenging topics on campus;
  • Tolerance for allowing controversial Liberal speakers on campus;
  • Tolerance for allowing controversial Conservative speakers on campus;
  • Administrative Support, which is students’ perception about whether their college protects or punishes free speech;
  • Comfort Expressing Ideas, which measures whether students have ever withheld their ideas due to how the expression would be received;
  • Protest Acceptability, which is how accepting students are of controversial protest activity on campus;
  • Speech Code Policies, scores colleges’ written policies and how well they uphold fundamental principles of free speech and academic freedom.

These 7 measures are combined into an overall score and schools are ranked.

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The 2022 Results

First, the best of the best:

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  • My b-school alma mater, the University of Chicago — which is hardly considered a conservative enclave — bagged the top ranking for freedom speech.
  • Four of the Top 5 are midwestern schools … the 5th (MSU) is southern.

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At the other end of the spectrum:

My beloved Georgetown ranked #200 on the list. “out-worsed” only by Columbia (“abysmal”), Penn and RPI.

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GU’s ranking is disappointing but understandable given the university’s close ties (physically, philosophically, financially) to the liberal DC political establishment.

As one survey respondent put it:

“A lot of people at Georgetown are very liberal and outright shame you if you deviate from there views even slightly. I am a registered Democrat so I am liberal, but people can’t even respect the smallest viewpoint variation.”

Factoid: FIRE estimates (based on students’ self-classification) that GU’s ratio of liberal to conservative students is 3.3 to 1.

Ouch.

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Top & Bottom 25

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Which football conference’s schools rank highest on freedom of speech?

FIRE offers a complete interactive list of the freedom of speech rankings.

For fun, click on the “Conference” filter to see which conference gets the best freedom of speech rankings.

Spoiler Alert: It’s not the Ivy League

Posted in Freedom of Speech, University policies | Leave a Comment »

Is grade inflation hitting babies & toddlers, too?

September 12, 2022

CDC has revised the developmental milestone checklist for children … uh-oh.
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Yep, the CDC is at work again.

Now, their guidance takes form in the CDC’s Revised developmental milestone checklist which alerts parents (and doctors) to warning signs of children’s developmental delays.

Sounds innocuous enough, right?

But, according to Parent’s magazine, “experts are raising the alarm that the new changes may cause more harm than good.”

What?

According to the American Academy of Pediatrics: “The revised developmental milestones are written in family-friendly language and identify the behaviors that 75% or more of children can be expected to exhibit at a certain age based on data, developmental resources and clinician experience.”

Family-friendly language sounds like a good thing, right?

What’s the rub?

The 75% threshold.

The old standard flagged kids who were in the 50th percentile and below.

Said differently kids in the bottom half used to be flagged for “clinical evaluation” to determine whether they were really behind on their development or just appeared to be.

The old (tougher) standard made sense because “The earlier a child is identified with a developmental delay the better, as treatment as well as learning interventions can begin”. AAP

But, apparently, that standard was causing parents too much stress.

Too many kids were flagged as behind in their development.

The answer: relax the standards … i.e. grade inflation.

For example, under the old standard, the CDC said that  a 24-month-old should say an average of 50 words.

But, the revised guidelines say parents shouldn’t expect a toddler to have a 50 word vocabulary until they are 30 months old.

Many parents can sigh relief.

Little Tommy’s not slow, after all.

Well parents, Little Tommy hasn’t changed, fols … just the bar has been lowered.

Little Tommy may not be getting the sort of clinical help that he might need.

Hmm.

Posted in Child development, Grades - Grade Inflation | Leave a Comment »

Half of all bachelor’s degrees are in 5 fields…

September 9, 2022

Which ones may surprise you…
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According to the Education Data Initiative ….

More precisely, 50.8% of all bachelor’s degrees are in 5 fields.

  • 19.1% in business
  • 11.9% in health professions
  • 8.0% in social sciences and history.
  • 5.9% in psychology.
  • 5.9% in biological and biomedical sciences.

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I was surprised by the number of business and health-related degrees.

Note that of the STEM disciplines, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics don’t make the top 5

Geez, if there has to be an unconstitutional loan forgiveness program, why isn’t it at least targeted at those critical STEM studies?

 

Posted in College | 1 Comment »

Government tries to clamp down on record grade inflation…

September 8, 2022

Don’t rejoice (or worry), it’s the UK gov’t, not our’s
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As in the U.S., grade inflation has swept the UK … with a huge spike during the pandemic when much schooling was done “virtually”.

In the UK, for about a decade preceding the pandemic, about 27% of the grades that high schoolers got were As. Source

That percentage spiked to 45% in 2020.

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The commonly cited reasons:

  • Online performance tough to differentiate
  • Just showing up online earned bonus points
  • Cheating commonplace on online exams
  • Students needed motivation to stay engaged

As we previously posted, studies are revealing that standardized test scores are falling as letter grades are inflating.

See: Is grade inflation masking learning losses?

Well, the UK Education Ministry has noticed the trend and is taking decisive action to deflate the grades.

“Grade boundaries are being reset to the middle of where they were in 2021 and 2019 as part of a planned two-year process to get back to pre-pandemic grade levels.”

Already, in 2020, the percentage of As dropped to 37% (the black bar above) … down 8 percentage points from the pandemic high … but still 10 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Students are reportedly having a “tough time” with the course correction.

As could be expected, they feel entitled to keep getting scored along the lax pandemic standards.

College admissions offices are having a fit, trying to figure out what to make of the grading shifts.

Nonetheless, the UK Education Ministry intends to stay the course … and get back to 2019 inflated grade levels.

No word from U.S. educators…

My bet, we won’t be hearing from them.

This isn’t a message that parents, teacher unions or the Feds want to hear.

Posted in Education - Academics, Grades - Grade Inflation | Leave a Comment »

Is grade inflation masking learning losses?

September 7, 2022

In short, the answer is yes!
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A couple of weeks ago, I heard a sidelines story of a mother who was concerned that her daughter “is dumber now than she was 2 years ago”.

That mother’s comment piqued my already high curiosity about learning loss during the covid school lockdowns.

On cue, the ACT standardized testing service released findings from a reasonably comprehensive study of grades and standardized test scores.

Let’s drill down….

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A remarkable increase in “A” students

ACT found that in 2021, about 55% of high school students had a composite GPA (i.e. average across all “book” subjects) that was equivalent to an A grade (the blue line below; Bs are the purple line).

That’s up about 10 percentage points over the past couple of years.

Hooray, the kids are getting smarter.

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Err, not so fast mes amies….

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But standardized test scores have fallen

On the below chart, the blue line tracks the average GPA … it’s consistent with the letter grade mix change shown above.

But, these higher grades don’t seem to be translating to improved standardized test scores.

Standardized ACT test scores (the purple line)have been pretty constant over the past 10 years …. but, have marginally declined in the most recent years.

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Note: The “real” ACT trend is probably worse than shown because of “sample bias”.

During the pandemic (and continuing to today) many colleges have waived the requirement that applicants submit standardized test scores.

It’s commonly concluded that many “average” students opted out of test-taking, understandably concluding that they had little to gain with a mediocre (or worse) test score.

So, what’s going on?

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Education pundits offer many explanations

There’s a wide array of  oft-cited possible explanations for the “discontinuity” between grades and test scores.

Here are some of my favorites:

> Assigning grades was challenging (for teachers) when classes were delivered online … so, a common sentiment was to give students the benefit of the doubt and “round up” to keep them engaged

> Course content was less rigorous (i.e. “dumbed down) to fit online delivery … so, more students were able to master the pared back content that was delivered.

> Submitted school work might not strictly reflect individual effort since students may have been getting “help” from well-intended parents who were, out of necessity, getting more involved in their children’s education.

> Fewer students are taking advanced courses … and getting higher grades in the less challenging course offerings.

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> Curriculum changes — away from reading, writing and arithmetic towards social topics — have made grading less quantifiably objective and more generously subjective.

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And, of course, there’s the possibility that school’s are “rounding up” to inflated grades to assuage parents concerns that, in the mother’s words, “children are getting dumber”.

As more standardized test scores come rolling in, that will become clearer.

My bet: We’re not going to like the answer…

Posted in Education - Academics, Grades - Grade Inflation | Leave a Comment »

Update: If the earth is warming, why isn’t Baltimore?

September 6, 2022

I hate to impair a popular narrative with actual data, but…
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Like much of the U.S., the Baltimore area (where I live) was enduring an apparent heatwave this summer.

It was hot enough that, even I, momentarily thought: “Maybe the earth really is warming.”

Then, I got my monthly electricity bill from BGE (Baltimore Gas & Electric).

Besides usage info, BGE reports the average monthly temperature, for the current and prior years (the red boxes)

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As Gomer Pyle would say, “surprise, Surprise, SURPRISE”.

The average August temperature this year (including the apparent heat wave) was 76 degrees … down 3 degrees from last year’s 79 degrees.

A fluke?

Note: According to BGE, my HVAC-driven usage was down 25% from last year.

Since we’ve kept our thermostat settings the same year-to-year, that’s consistent with a colder average temperature.

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To dig deeper, I pulled some more historical data from my BGE file…

Below are the average monthly temperatures in Baltimore (as reported by BGE) for January to August in years 2020, 2021 and 2022

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What does the data show?

  • Again, this year (Aug. 2022) was 3 degrees colder than Aug, 2021 and Aug. 2020
  • More broadly, comparing year-to-year temperature by month, all 2022 monthly temperatures were equal to or colder than  2020 temperatures
  • Compared to 2021,  only one month —  February 2022 — was hotter than the 2021 temperature (40 degrees to 36 degrees) … all other months in 2022 were colder than their comparable months in 2021.
  • The 2022 8-month average (January to August) was 2 degrees colder in July 2022 than it was in July 2021 …. and 3 degrees colder than it was in July 2020

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My take

  • It’s conceivable that BGE’s data collection is wrong … or that Baltimore is a complete outlier that’s not representative of the rest of the earth …. but, I doubt either is true.
  • The data probably doesn’t indicate that the earth is cooling … but, it sure as heck doesn’t support a global warming narrative.

Somebody’s gotta explain to me:

  • if the data shows that my average   local temperatures have dropped almost  3 degrees from 2 years ago — why should I believe (with “settled science certainty”) that the earth will be a degree or two hotter 50 or a hundred years from now if I keep driving my SUV.

This circle doesn’t square…

Posted in Global Warming - Climate Change | Leave a Comment »

If a tree falls in the woods…

September 2, 2022

So, who watched Biden’s speech?
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I was anxious last night as the clocked ticked towards 8 o’clock.

I was amped to watch the Penn State – Purdue football game and afraid that it’s first quarter would be pre-empted by by Biden’s “Prime Time” rant.

To my delight, when the clock stuck 8, FOX (the national network, not Fox News) was broadcasting the kick-off.

That aroused my curiosity.

Presidential prime time speeches are always broadcast on the major TV networks, right?

So, I quickly scanned the other networks.

Shocker: None of ABC, NBC, CBS were broadcasting the speech either.

So, I checked the cable news networks.

Only Dem-reliable CNN and MSNBC were carrying the speech.

Hmm

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BTW: Biden’s speech was in Pennsylvania, right?

So, why would Team Biden counter-program against a Penn State football game?

Double hmmm.

Posted in Biden - gaffes & lies | Leave a Comment »

Shocker: National test scores plummet…

September 2, 2022

“The test scores indicate a learning deficit that could resonate for years” WSJ
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This week, the National Assessment of Educational Progress released the  “Nation’s Report Card.”

The results of tests administered to 4th graders show unprecedented drops in test scores.

4th grade is considered by many educators to be a pivotal year for students learning.

4th grade test scores, in effect, measure a student’s preparedness for “upper” elementary school and beyond.

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Specifically, average scores in reading for 2022 declined to 215 out of a possible 500, falling five points from 2020.

Math scores fell seven points, to 234.

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Math and reading scores for the exam are now at their lowest levels since 2000.

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Drilling down in math…

The drop-off in math scores was most severe for Hispanics and Blacks.

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Data source: WaPo

Asian-American students are still the educational gold standard … scoring higher than other groups by statistically significant margins.

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Data source: WaPo

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Drilling down in reading…

Only Asian-American students scored at a level comparable to 2020

Reading scores for all other groups dropped by 2 to 3 percentage points.

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Data source: WaPo

As in math, Asian-American students set the high bar … scoring higher than other groups by statistically significant margins.

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Data source: WaPo

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Education pundits opine: The test scores indicate
a learning deficit that could resonate for years.

Among their recovery recommendations:

  • Refocus curriculum on math & reading
  • Shrink class sizes
  • Provide more one-on-one tutoring
  • More homework
  • Extend the school year with mandatory summer school

Posted in Early learning, Education - Academics, standardizws testing | Leave a Comment »

Dwindling college enrollments…

September 1, 2022

Some interesting data from the Education Data Initiative and Statista…
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College enrollments

> Undergraduate enrollment (the middle black line in the chart below) almost tripled from 1970 to 2010 … from 6.3 million to 18.1 million.

> But, from 2010 to 2020, UG enrollment has declined by 2.2 million to 15.9 million … a 12% fall off.

> Graduate school enrollments tripled between 1970 and 2015 … and have been flat around 3 million since 2015

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Source: Education Data Initiative

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Degrees granted

In 2021, 4.43 million college students graduated

  • 24.6% received associate degrees.
  • 49.9% received bachelor degrees.
  • 20.8% earned master degrees.
  • 4.7% earned doctorates or professional degrees.

Source: Education Data Initiative

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Age group penetration

The share of the 18 & 19 year old  population enrolled in college or other higher education (e.g. community colleges & trade schools):

> In the mid-1970s, about 1 in 3 of 18 & 19 year olds  were enrolled in higher education.

> That percentage peaked at 51.2% in 2010 (consistent with the above enrollment numbers) …. and has flattened at about 50%

> In 2000, The enrollment % among 18 & 19 year olds started falling below the enrollment % of 20 & 21 year olds, foreshadowing a future decline in the enrollment % among the older age group.

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Source: Statista

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Posted in College | Leave a Comment »