The explanation is really quite simple
=============
Pundits are jumping all over the modelers – specifically, the team at Washington University’s IHME – accusing them of being inept or politically motivated.
I don’t think either of those accusations are true.
Here’s why…
Let’s start with the numbers.
The initial IHME projection, made on March 25, was 81,114 “deaths from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US.”.
At that time, the 95% confidence interval (in layman’s terms: the range of uncertainty) was 38,242 to 162,106.
For more detail on the IHME Model, see our previous post:
What you need to know about the IHME Model
Note that the confidence level was explicit … and admittedly very large.
The IHME forecast has been revised at least 5 times since March 25.
Note that he current projection (60,415) is well within the original confidence interval (38,242 to 162,106) … it’s not some sort of wildly whacky outlier.
Still, let’s drill down on the initial forecast (81,114) and the current projection (60,415).
The Homa Files 