Archive for April 21st, 2020

Let’s make COVID testing actionable…

April 21, 2020

We might be testing the wrong people.
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An earlier version was posted on March 22 

COVID-19 testing has been getting a lot of attention recently since availability of test kits has been late and slow.

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  • TV pundit-doctors complain that they can’t get tests done on their patients.
  • Some people are anxious to know if they have been infected.
  • Scientists are dismayed that they don’t have enough data to accurately calibrate the problem.

The current answer: Prioritize diagnostic testing to sick people who have COVID symptoms (and want to be tested)… 

My question: Is that the right answer?

I think not…

(more…)

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

NY antibody test results will give us clues about our future health risks…

April 21, 2020

 … and may either vindicate or indict the shut-down.
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Last week, Gov. Cuomo announced that New York will begin the “most aggressive” antibody testing in the country this week.

The goal: To determine the true number of people who have been infected by the coronavirus.

Specifically, NY will administer around 14,000 tests this week to a random sample of individuals.

That’s a good thing.

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Teaching point: I always coached my students to develop hypotheses before doing analyses or launching a test.

In high uncertainty situations — like the coronavirus infection rate — I nudged them to imagine the high & low results that might be reasonably possible … and, pre-assess the implications at each extreme.

Let’s play that game for NY’s antibody testing…

(more…)

Posted in 2012 Campaign, Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 2 Comments »

April 21: C-19 UPDATE

April 21, 2020

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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Today’s Headline
DNDs UP from prior day
7-day moving average 2,156 DND

KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

1,954 Daily New Deaths Worldometer

856 in NY+NJ+CT 44% of US                    

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
42,513  Worldometer
42,364   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
60,308 by Aug. 4  Rev. DOWN 8,533 on 4/16

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STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 24,553  58% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 36,416 86% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 228 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 36 Deaths/Million
  • MD 516 Total Deaths  +30 DNDs

State-by-State Data – Top 12

(more…)

Posted in COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »