Archive for April 23rd, 2020

Sure, Theranos was a disaster…

April 23, 2020

… but it offers some ideas for today’s crisis.
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OK, Elizabeth Holmes is a likely sociopath who charismatically defrauded investors out of billions of dollars and made fools of a lot supposedly smart, highly influential people.

In a nutshell: Holmes was 20-something Steve Jobs wannabe who visioned  that blood tests could be done from a single drop of blood and built a $9 billion company around the concept,

Here’s a 5-minute clip on Holmes & Theranosimage

There was a rub, though.

Holmes (and the company) crashed & burned when it was finally discovered that Theranos was Oz – the concept didn’t work.

Holmes is currently under Federal indictment, with a trial scheduled for this October.

Putting those dirty details aside for a moment, there are some things we can learn from Holmes and the Theranos saga.

Let me explain ….

I recently re-watched the 20/20 TV version of the Theranos story (titled “The Drop Out”) … this time, I watched with an eye to “learnings” that might have relevance to the coronavirus crisis.

Here are my takeaways…

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NY antibody test results…

April 23, 2020

~14% tested positive; over 21% in NYC
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Gov. Cuomo announced the first round of results from NY state’s broadscale coronavirus antibody test.

With 3,000 of the planned 14,000 tests completed 21.2% of NYC residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies … an indication that they have already been infected by the virus (and recovered).

Interpreting those results requires a bit more number crunching: statewise, 13.8% tested positive … that projects to roughly 2.7 million New Yorkers

As of today, there have been 269,519 confirmed cases in NY state … that means that roughly 2.4 million people have been infected but had no or mild symptoms — so they weren’t given diagnostic tests. These are the so-called “hidden carriers”.

Said differently, based on these test results,  90% of New Yorkers who have gotten infected by C-19 have had no or mild symptoms. That’s a big deal.. perhaps the key takeaway from these test results! 

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As of today, NY has reported 20,792 coronavirus-related deaths … which given the estimated 2.7 million infectees implies a virus death rate of .8%

Posted in $2 Bets, Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 4 Comments »

Nursing homes need tests with instant results!

April 23, 2020

Otherwise, viral spread with a high fatality rate is a matter of “when” not “if”.
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Let’s connect a couple of dots today…

First, the obvious has suddenly become evident: nursing homes (and other long-term care facilities) are sitting ducks for the coronavirus.

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Why is that?

Nursing homes present a “perfect storm” challenge: highly vulnerable, cloistered patients in close, constant contact with non-resident shifts of care-givers.

Let’s unpack that description and its implications …

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Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 1 Comment »

April 23: C-19 UPDATE

April 23, 2020

Today’s Headlines
2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
IHME forecast  UPPED to 67,641
Maryland into Top 12; Washington out

Must Read: About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths…
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KEY CHART: Daily New Deaths (DNDs)

2,338 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 2,174

1,092 in NY+NJ+CT 47% of US              

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Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
47,681  Worldometer
46,785   JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

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STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 26,961  57% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 40,548 85% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 257 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
    Bottom 39 Average = 39 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland into Top 12; Washington out

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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