Archive for April 25th, 2020

How many social contacts are people having during stay-at-home?

April 25, 2020

And, how risky is it to have contact with people outside of your household?
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In a previous post, we reported a Gallup survey that indicated at least.2/3s of Americans were making a reasonably serious attempt to isolate themselves during the stay-at-home.

A new Gallup survey reports that 74% are isolating themselves “completely” or “mostly”.

That’s pretty good compliance.

And, Gallup goes a step further in the current study to calibrate what “completely” or “mostly” mean by asking respondents how many people they came in contact with — not counting fellow household members — during the past 24 hours.

Note: The forecast models generally assume that social distancing practices, including stay-at-home, reduce contacts by about 40% … 25% for work contacts and 75% for general social contacts.

The conclusion: Adults practicing social distancing generate at least 90% fewer contacts per day than those who are making little effort to social distance.

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On average, survey respondents had 9.9 contacts in the past 24 hours.

Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers…

(more…)

April 25: C-19 Key NATIONAL Chart

April 25, 2020

1,974 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> Down from prior 3 days
> 7-day average 2,149

744 in NY+NJ+CT 38% of US              

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See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative U.S. Deaths 
52,217 
Worldometer
51,949   
JHU

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
67,641 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 1,665 on 4/22

Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

April 25: C-19 Key STATES Chart

April 25, 2020

STATE DEATHS  Worldometer

Summary

  • NY+NJ+CT = 28,672  55% of US Total
       NY+NJ+CT = 10% U.S. Population
  • Top 12 Total = 43,841 84% of US Total
      Top 12 Average = 278 Deaths per Million
      Top 12 = 48% of U.S. Population
      Bottom 39 Average = 49 Deaths/Million
  • Maryland 798  +50

State-by-State Data – Top 12

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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?