Archive for September 25th, 2020

Remember when Biden “dominated” Ryan in VP debate?

September 25, 2020

Consensus is that Trump will roll a cognitively weakened Biden in next week’s debate.

Fearing the worst, Pelosi’s has advised Slow Joe to skip the debates, giving rise to fringe conjecture that Biden won’t post for the debate.

Wildest machination that I’ve heard is that Biden will claim to have tested positive for COVID right before the debate — getting him some shoulda-stayed-home sympathy and a doc’s note for his absence.  All followed by a DeWine-like negative test on Sept. 30.

My view: Biden will show up and, given expectations, Trump has lots of downside … and, Biden has lots of upside.

Flashback to the way Biden shredded Paul Ryan in 2012 …

click for 3-min excerpt
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Ryan had the IQ edge by about 100 points and brought his clean-as-a-Scout persona.

So, how did Biden handle him?

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The most incredible COVID statistic…

September 25, 2020

I’ve heard or read this stat several times:

29 large universities including Notre Dame, the University of North Carolina, and Illinois State had reported some 26,000 cases by Sept. 9 yet no hospitalizations.

I used to frequently remind my students that incredible means not credible … and, this stat certainly sounded incredible … so, I largely ignored it.

But, when the statistic was repeated in the WSJ, I decided that it was worth looking into.

Here’s what I found…

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Sept. 25: Election Odds & Polls

September 25, 2020

Biden +8.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.6   Lead 8.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :
   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23
 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Sept. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 25, 2020

207,499 Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 767       (peak 2.229 April 23)

44,000  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,187

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Details below…

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