Archive for October, 2012

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Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 31, 2012

A sharp-eyed Homa Files reader commented that the rankings we posted yesterday were preliminary … and that the Fordham prof. officially published a final listing that has substantially different ranking.

Here’s what we reported yesterday:

According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

The finals report still has Gallup, CBS, NY Times, and Reuters (C-SPAN) at the bottom of the heap.

Rasmussen and Pew – the preliminary winners – drop to the middle in the final report.

At the top: McClatchy, CNN and Fox … with Democracy Corps copping the top prize.

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Thanks to D. Vargas for feeding the lead

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Sandy’s impact on the election

October 31, 2012

Pundits have been speculating re: the impact that Sandy will have on the Presidential election.

Generally, the chatter is about the possibility of low turnout in some swing places like  central city Philly (not sure why) and southwestern Virginia (blizzards).

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My take: Sandy increases the probability of one possible outcome – that Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote …  maybe by a statistically significant margin.

My logic: The hardest  hit states are all solid Blue: MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA

Obama will undoubtedly carry those states … by big margins.

So, put yourself in the shoes of somebody who is still bailing water out of his basement, or rebuilding his house, or just waiting for the electricity to finally go back on.

Are you going to drop everything and hustle to the polls to cast an insignificant vote?

I wouldn’t … except maybe if there was a close local race that I was interested in.

So, I predict that Obama will win the Sandy states, but by a lesser margin than he would have sans Sandy.

Since the states are major population states, that drop could be significant.

So, it’s entirely possible that Obama ekes out an electoral victory, but loses the popular vote.

Just maybe …

= = = = =
Related:

For a nice recap of the legal aspects of delaying the election, extending hours, etc., see  Could Sandy postpone the election?

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Posted in 2012 Campaign | 1 Comment »

WSJ: M.B.A.s Rethink Wall Street

October 31, 2012

According to the WSJ …

Repeated cutbacks have dulled Wall Street’s luster for some prospective Masters of the Universe, in the latest reflection of the gloom overhanging the finance industry.

A Wall Street gig “isn’t as prestigious as it used to be” because the future—promotion opportunities, salary gains, even basic job security— is so unclear.

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“Students’ interest and appetite has become much, much more diverse” over the past decade, says Julie Morton, associate dean of career services and corporate relations at University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Students are increasingly lured by start-ups and stable jobs at consumer-products firms and industrial conglomerates.

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Posted in Careers & Interviewing, MBA Degree, MBAs | Leave a Comment »

Highly educated folks most likely to pile on too much debt …

October 31, 2012

Recently released research suggests that despite generally held assumptions, it wasn’t just uneducated people, and not just homeowners, who precipitated the financial crisis by taking on too much debt.

Before the financial crash of 2008, it was highly educated Americans who were most likely to pile on unmanageable levels of debt.

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Overall, the percentage of Americans who were paying more than 40 percent of their income for debts like mortgages and credit card bills increased from about 17 percent in 1992 to 27 percent in 2008.

But college-educated people were more likely than those with high school or less education to be above this 40 percent threshold – considered to be a risky amount of debt for most households.

“People with college educations may have thought they were immune to any economic problems. But when people stop believing things might go bad, that’s when they get in trouble.”

Source

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Posted in Consumer debt, Financial Crisis | 1 Comment »

Re: Friday’s big number … what to expect (if the BLS doesn’t hide-the-weinie).

October 31, 2012

Hurricane Sandy has put the BLS between a rock and a hard place.

There are 3 scenarios:

1) The BLS hides behind Sandy’s skirt-tails and  takes an incomplete — failing to report the most important number in the most important election … until the election is over.  Just imagine if Obama wins and the BLS reports next week (or next month)  that the unemployment rate went back up to 7.9% or 8% or higher.

2) The BLS rushes a preliminary number that shows the unemployment rate going down to, say,  7.8% … and then revises it upward after the election. Think, the BLS streak of under-reporting initial unemployment claims.

3) The BLS reports that the unemployment rate went down again as still another 850,000 folks find part-time work somewhere, someplace … and, Jack Welch goes nuts.

4)  The BLS reports on time that the unemployment rate went up and Obama orders a DOJ investigation.

* * * * *
My bet: They’ll report on time that the unemployment rate clicked up to 7.9% …  it’s the best “managed” number …. let’s Obama crow that it’s under the magic 8% … and, let’s Romney point out that it’s going in the wrong direction.

Based on the numbers, I’d expect the unemploymen rate to bounce back up to at least 8%.

Here’s my logic…

Initial unemployment claims should track pretty closely with the reported unemployment rate, right?

Well, they do usually … but didn’t last month when the miraculous 7.8% was reported.

Just eyeballing the chart below – which maps the 4-week moving average of initial claims against the unemployment rate – one might have expected an unemployment rate of just over 8% … not 7.8%

Looking forward to this Friday’s unemployment rate … based on the 4-week moving average of initial claims … the unemployment rate should pop back to at least 7.9% … maybe back over over 8%.

That is, unless Welch is right and the BLS is cookin’ the books.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | 2 Comments »

Which demo groups is Obama doing better with this time around?

October 31, 2012

Trick question: According to the latest Pew Poll Report , Obama’s support has fallen with all groups (except Democrats”) … from his actual performance in 2008 and his projected performance in 2012.

His biggest drops are among Independents (down 12 percentage points) and young 18-29 voters (down 10 percentage points).

Versus Sen. McCain’s results in 2008, Romney shows modest gains almost across the board.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

A 269 to 269 scenario … how a tie could happen.

October 30, 2012

WARNING: This is for hard core political junkies.

In a prior post – Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President? – I showed that if Romney bagged 269 electoral votes he would become President and that Biden probably would be named VP.

I said the 269 tie was mathematically possible, but didn’t show how.

Martin Leborgne (MSB MBA ’03), a loyal Homa Files reader, replied with a fascinating election analysis that lays out a 269-269 scenario … and a couple of related strategy variations.

Great work, Martin.

* * * * *
Martin Leborgne’s Analysis

The 269/269 electoral split is becoming more and more of a possibility.

Not saying a high probability option … just more and more of an option.

To do that:
1) Romney has to win FL & NC. (fine they’re leaning that way)
2) Mitt also take AZ, while Barack takes NM. (again, leaning that way)
3) Obama wins OH & MI – which as you said in a previous post is relatively likely.
4) Wisconsin goes to Obama
5) VA goes to Mitt
6) CO, IA, and NV also go to Mitt. (We’ll come back to these three.)

Essentially:
Mitt HAS to win CO, IA, NV, VA and FL just to push a 269 tie.
Assuming OH & Wisc goes blue.

So to win:
Romney has to hit those 5 states AND steal one other state.

Obama has to take just two of those states to win -> Wisc + one other.

Ohio certainly changes the landscape of what I’m writing here.

====
BUT if Ohio goes Red: (Again, assuming FL is red) states in play are:
VA, Wisc, Col, IA, and Vegas-Baby!
44 unallocated. BO: 241, MR: 253.

To become the Leader of the Free World with OH and FL red:
MR has to win: 3 out of those 5, ORRRR VA + Wisconsin.
BO has to win: VA + Wisc + one other, ORRRR 4 of those 5.

Punch lines:
Game over of FL is blue.
OH def changes the landscape.
If OH & Wisc go Obama, CO, IA, NV, and VA are a must win for just a shot (269 split here)
If OH & Wisc go Romney, MR will have 263, and will need 7 votes out of NV-6, CO-9, IA-6, and VA-13.

The no-kidding moment:
Things are a lot safer for Romney with OH in Red.

VA(13) and WISC(10) are must-must-must wins.

So with VA and Wisconsin going Red, does Mitt plan to go for OH or concede Ohio and go for 2/3 between IA, NV, and CO?

My thinking: Concede OH. Its uphill. Focus on VA and Wisc  just to make this is a close one.

Then focus on IA and NV.

* * * * *

Whew!  Thanks, Martin.

Any other scenarios out there?

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Electoral College | 1 Comment »

Obama besting Romney in early voting … oh, really?

October 30, 2012

The narrative in the mainstream media the past couple of weeks is that the Obama machine is building an enormous lead over Romney in early voting.

Well, Gallup just released a poll on early voters that seems to debunk the notion.

Here are the key findings …

* * * * *
Only 15% of registered voters  have already voted

… another 18% said they plan to vote early

… and 2/3s said they’ll vote on election day.

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* * * * *
Early voting in the battleground Midwest (13%) is slightly below the national average (15%)

… the uncontested Obama-West leads the nation with 1/2  voting early.

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* * * * *
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early

…. Independents are most waiting for election day.

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* * * * * *

Of those who have voted early, Romney edges Obama 52 to 46.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »

Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 30, 2012

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

* * * * *

Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

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IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, poll, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

New study: Don’t blame the immigrants.

October 30, 2012

Punch line: While many poor immigrants from Latin America have been leaving the United States because of an inability to find decent jobs,

American workers might want them back.

This is because new studies have found that immigrants have a positive impact on the economy in the long run.

* * * * *
Excerpted from New York Times Economix’ blog’s, “Immigration and American Jobs”

immigrant_workers

Of all the economic dynamics buffeting the American middle class, immigration might seem the easiest to explain: as millions of poor immigrants from Latin America poured illegally into the country … they displaced American Workers from their jobs and undercut their wages.

But this typical explanation of the impact of immigration is mostly wrong.

The most recent empirical studies conclude that the impact is slight … they suggest that immigrants have had, at most, a small negative impact on the wages of Americans who compete with them most directly.

Meanwhile, the research has found that immigrants … have a big positive impact on the economy over the long run, bolstering the profitability of American firms, reducing the prices of some products and services … and creating more opportunities for investment and jobs.

Those nostalgic for strawberry fields harvested by well-paid Americans ignore the fact that without the cheap foreign labor, there might not be American strawberry fields.

Edit by JDC

 

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Posted in Immigration, Labor Economics | Leave a Comment »

Maybe I was too pessimistic on Ohio …

October 29, 2012

Last week  I said “Romney hasn’t led in any Ohio polls.

Strike that, as of today.

Most recent Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 2 points, and hitting the magic 50% number.

While Rasmussen is typically thought to lean right, it was the most accurate poll in the 2008 election … more on that tomorrow.

PS Have you noticed the media burst today re: Wisconsin as the new Ohio?  For the record, HomaFiles was on that one last Friday … ahead of the curve.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

BLS may delay Friday employment report … are you kidding me?

October 29, 2012

I guess when the announcement went out that”only essential Federal employees need report”, the folks at the BLS rolled over and went back to sleep.

According to the WSJ …

“… government statisticians and others may not be able complete the preparation of the jobs report before scheduled release time later this week.due to the weather and associated power outages and transportation disruptions.”

Why do I not find this surprising?

Memo to BLS: Get your stupid butts to the office, order a stack of pizzas, and crank until the gov’t emergency generators stop cranking power to your computers.

Somebody pass to the word to Jack Welch, ok?

Posted in 2012 Campaign, BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »

Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President?

October 29, 2012

If you answered  270  … you’re wrong.

The correct answer is 269.

And, if Romney prevails with 269 electoral votes, there’s a quirky possibility that Biden could be his VP.

* * * * *
What if Obama & Romney tie at 269 ?

Given the 2012 swing states, it is unlikely , but mathematically possible for Obama and Romney to each win 269 electoral votes.

As we’ve posted before, a tie would be resolved in the House (for President) and in the Senate (for Vice President).

Practically every pundit and pollster is predicting that the GOP will win a majority of states in the House.

  • Important technical note: the new House & Senate get sworn in on January 3rd source and hold a joint session on January 6th to “count and announces the results of the Electoral College vote” source

So, in the case of a tie, the House would pick the President … and, assuming that the GOP wins the House, Romney wins with 269 electoral votes

* * * * *
What about the Vice Presidency ?

Remember, the Senate picks the VP.

I’d been assuming that the Senate would certify Ryan if there was a tie … regardless of whether Dems or GOP win the Senate

I overlooked a major factor: the Vice President also holds another postion — President of the Senate.

That’s a largely ceremonial role … except that the VP votes to breaks ties in Senate votes.

That’s why things get interesting.

* * * * *
What if the Senate-elect is tied 50-50

If there’s a tie and the GOP wins the Senate … Ryan gets the VP slot.

If the Dems win the Senate by a couple of seats, my bet is that they would allow Ryan to prevail rather than set-up a ridiculous Romney-Biden pairing.

After all, Romney would just deploy Joe to supermarket openings and state funerals.

But,if the Senate-elect is split 50-50, then the VP slot becomes very meaningful.

Remember that the VP is the President of the Senate and votes to break ties.

Here’s a quirk: Biden – as sitting VP – would get a vote on who wins – him or Ryan.

And, in a 50-50 Senate, there are likely to be a lot of ties … making the President of the Senate position very important.

So, you gotta expect that Biden would vote for himself – as VP – but, more meaningfully, as President of the Senate.

Bingo.  A Romney-Biden scenario.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Electoral College | 2 Comments »

Make ‘you’ your favorite brand …

October 29, 2012

Punch line: In today’s competitive job market, professionals must create a personal brand to stand out in the crown.  Using the traditional 4 P’s as a framework can help you develop a killer personal brand.

* * * * *
Excerpted from mashable.com’s, “How to Create a Killer Personal Branding Campaign”

Call it self-marketing, personal branding, professional development, or any other buzzword you’d like. In any case, both finding a job and climbing the career ladder are all about investing in the business of you.

personal-branding

As a professional, you are a brand unto yourself.

The target market for the unique value you provide are employers who are constantly bombarded with messages from your competitors and always on the lookout for innovation.

Though the boundaries of traditional marketing no longer exist due to online media and new digital technologies, its core tactics can be reworked to guide your self-marketing strategy online.

  • Product: Be Consistent and Recognizable.  You must determine who you are as a professional and build a personal brand around your core strengths, skills and experience. What do you bring to the table that others in your industry do not?
  • Price: Know Your Value.  In addition to accounting for the value you add to an organization, you must decide what you are worth and what your bottom line is.
  • Place: Recognize Your Niche.  As a professional, you are only one person. Thus, it’s critical that you select a sphere of influence and stick with it, though it could be based on industry or knowledge base as much as geography.
  • Promotion: Communicate Your Brand.  How will you communicate your messages to the market you’ve targeted? Selecting the appropriate mediums means the difference between being heard loud and clear or getting lost in the clutter.

Whether you’re looking for a job or desire to be considered an expert in your industry, you can meet your objectives by building a brand around yourself — effectively leaving a memorable first impression and making people want to learn more about you.

Edit by BJP

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Posted in Careers & Interviewing, Mktg - Brands, Personal brands - branding you | Leave a Comment »

Red Bull: Getting high from Felix’s 24-mile freefall from space …

October 28, 2012

Punch line: While it is too early to quantify the impact of Red Bull’s recent Stratos mission, that isn’t stopping valuations as high as $8 billion.

* * * * *
Excerpted from brandchannel, “Now Red Bull Has Conquered Space, Can Brand Escape Tang’s Fate?”

Red-Bull

Pretty much the entire planet now knows the name Felix Baumgartner, thanks to the 43-year-old Austrian skydiver’s record-breaking supersonic freefall, 24 miles out of the sky.

His main benefactor since 1988, Red Bull, deserves to milk the historic feat for all its worth for some time.

The … big question — besides “Is he single?” (no) and “What’s his next daredevil stunt?” (none) — is what all the publicity, social media buzz and press does for the value of the Red Bull brand, and how much all the brand awareness generated by the stunt will goose global sales.

While it’s too early to tell the impact on Red Bull’s financials, of course, it’s not stopping valuation guesstimates as high as £5bn ($8 billion).

While much hay was made of the brand’s “gives you wings” tagline, Baumgartner didn’t drink any Red Bull before his jump for medical, safety and “are you kidding?” reasons.

Edit by JDC

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Posted in Mktg - Promotion | 1 Comment »

Big swing in President’s job approval numbers …

October 28, 2012

Obama’s job approval numbers have dropped significantly in the past  week … into the mid-40s … in both the Gallup & Rasmussen daily tracking polls.

He has been underwater by a point or two in Rasmussen for the past couple of weeks.

But, he was riding 50-plus approval numbers in Gallup until the past couple of days … so the drop in that survey is big news.

Why is this a big deal?

Pundits’ wisdom is than an incumbent’s vote ceiling is his job approval number going into the election … and, if it’s below 50, that’s obviously bad news.

What might explain the drop?

Couple of hypotheses:

1) Obama’s negative campaigning and quirky ads (e.g. “First Time”) this week may have turned some folks off.

2) Benghazi-gate may be catching up to him … especially the dead Seal’s father going public with his disappointment on Obama’s reaction.

3) The giant thud heard when he released his 20-page glossy economic plan

4) The polls may be whacky … especially Gallup, which has been very erratic since it changed its methodology a month or so ago.

* * * * *
Focus on the polls since Oct. 23 … toss out the CBS poll which is broadly considered a partisan outlier. 

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“Trawling college campuses for political jailbait” … ouch

October 27, 2012

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder … and that one’s perspective on marketing campaigns depends on where they stand.

President Obama’s most recent ad – explicitly analogizing first-time voting to first-time sex  — has caused a bit of a stir.

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Dems surrogates are saying it’s clever, edgy, clutter-breaking … and well targeted.

One conservative writer said: “Obama is largely reduced to trawling college campuses for political jailbait … in the increasingly desperate hope of getting at least a few salvageable video clips out of each day.”

We report, you decide.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Mktg - Advertising, Obama | Leave a Comment »

Nate Silver: Mitt’s momentum has stopped … oh, really?

October 26, 2012

The New York Times’ Nate Silver will emerge from this election as either the greatest predictor ever … or as a complete dufass.

We’re posting his column from yesterday so that we have it in the Homa Files archives …

We’ll know in 12 days, Nate.

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Countering Springsteen …

October 26, 2012

… with Meat Loaf.

According to the Toledo Blade, a Romney event in Defiance, Ohio “featuring” Meat Loaf drew a crowd of 12,000.

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Raises a couple of questions:

1, Did they come to see Mr. Romney or Mr. Loaf?

2. Do you think his friends call him “Meat” or “Loaf” or something else?

3. Seriously, did you know the Meat Loaf was still alive?

4. Can you name Meat Loaf’s biggest hit? Any of his other hits?

Answer: click to see Top Ten Best Meat Loaf Songs

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Forget Ohio … watch Wisconsin.

October 26, 2012

If Mitt’s route to the White House is through Ohio, I’m not optimistic for him … for 5 reasons:

* * * * *
1. Romney isn’t leading in any of the Ohio polls.

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* * * * *
2. Romney is doing well in affluent suburbs … and, Ohio doesn’t have many of them.

Insightful analysis by Michael Barone:

A pro-Romney affluent swing is confirmed by the internals of some national polls.

Post-debate Pew Research and Battleground polls have shown Romney carrying affluent suburbanites  by statistically significant margins.

In particular, college-educated women seem to have swung toward Romney.

That tends to validate a scenario that Mitt Romney fares much better in affluent suburbs

This also helps explain why Romney still narrowly trails in Ohio polls.

Affluent suburban counties cast about one-quarter of the votes in, say,  Pennsylvania and Michigan but only one-eighth in Ohio.

* * * * *
3. Obama’s early negative ad blitz worked in Ohio.

This is strictly anecdotal – from a small, non-projectable sample of friends & relatives in Cleveland.

They bought into Obama’s ad blitz demonizing  Romney – they believe that he’ll stop their social security checks if elected.

Now, they’ve got ad fatigue and actively resist political commercials.

They’re classic uninformed voters. They get their news for the local NBC affiliate, so they haven’t even heard of Benghazi or the fiscal cliff.

Obama has them locked.

* * * * *

4. Neither Gov. Kasich nor Sen. candidate Mandel are factors

I think Kasich  is doing a good job balancing the budget and attracting business … Ohio’s unemployment rate is below the national average.

But, he’s only marginally popular because he has taken on the unions.

And, it doesn’t appear that he has a political apparatus in place to spur GOTV activity.

Mandel seems like a reasonable kid, but isn’t going to be a poll magnet

* * * * *

5. The auto bailout is a simple, compelling story

Like it or hate it, people get it.

In a campaign with a lot of complicated issues, this is one folks can understand.

Simple message: Obama authorized the $$$, favored the unions, more people have jobs.

It’s a tough message to sell against.

* * * * *

One Ohio bright spot for Romney

The best I can muster is that Obama only hits 50% in one poll … even the flakey Time poll only has him at 49%.

Conventional wisdom says that the undecideds break for the challenger … especially if he has some mo going.

What I’m watching: for Romney to take an Ohio lead in Rasmussen or Suffolk (only polls I really trust) … and then hit a 50% in one of them.

I call it a longshot.

* * * * *
Why Wisconsin could break for Romney

First, the case against Romney in Wisconsin: trailing in all the polls, Obama at 50% in Rasmussen, Madison is a huge liberal hotbed – with a gazillion students ready to vote.

image

So, why do I think Wisconsin could break for Romney?

Basically, it’s the inverse of the Ohio logic:

1. Gov. Walker is a force – a winner.

2. Polls said Walker would barely escape the recall … he rolled up big numbers.

3. Tommy Thompson (former Governor) is popular and knows how to win … he may pull voters in.

4. More favorable demographics for Romney – more traditional Midwest values, more affluent suburbs than Ohio.

5. Wisconsin voters didn’t get the summer barrage of Obama’s “Romney is the devil” ads.

6. Obama dissed the unions during the recall election … I’m betting that they don’t forget.

* * * * *

Bottom line

I’m betting Mitt’s road to the White House goes through Wisconsin not Ohio.

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Did you “dual screen” the debates?

October 26, 2012

According to Pew, 10% of the people watching the debates monitored a computer, tablet, or smartphone while watching.

Many were posting and reading social network sites or fact-checkers.

 

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Posted in Media, Media Demongraphis, Social Media & Networking, Trends | Leave a Comment »

Morning line: The latest Presidential polls …

October 26, 2012

The betting books still have Obama 2 to 1

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* * * * *

The RCP average is Romney up by about a point.

But, the polls from this week have Romney up by 2 points … with only ! poll (IBS) having Obama in the lead.

Romney hits 50% in 3 of the polls …

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Big companies say: “Start me up” …

October 26, 2012

Punch line: There’s a quiet revolution happening in corporate America.

Big companies are applying startup strategies and tools to jump-start innovation and renovation.

istock_000000136484medium

* * * * *
Excerpted from Fast Company’s, “4 Innovation Strategies From Big Companies That Act Like Startups”

Big companies that behave like small startups focus on two things. First, they accelerate the speed of innovation, just like a Silicon Valley incubator. Second, they give internal businesses and teams an outside-in perspective.

Here are four strategies that anyone can use to start-up … innovation:

  1. Follow customers home: Intuit’s innovation success is tied to a value for finding and savoring … unexpected insights about customer needs, problems, and desired experiences. That’s why the company does customer “follow-me-homes,” … [to] immerse themselves in the customer’s natural environment.
  2. Tap outside collaborators: Kimberly-Clark knows that insular thinking is the death knell of teams and organizations. That’s why they … recruit a small group of “thought leaders” to … deliver strategic and practical insight that would otherwise take months to gather.
  3. Stay small: Big innovations don’t necessarily have to begin by taking big risks. Intuit, for example, … [doesn’t wait] around for senior leadership to sponsor and fund the next big idea but rather rapidly tests ideas to identify the things teams can do to have the biggest impact.
  4. Use the best, invent the rest: Speed and agility come from realizing we don’t have to invent everything ourselves. The strategy is to use the best … and then adapt it or combine it with other approaches that work within the specific company context.

These big-company strategies aren’t about ivory-tower innovation departments … they’re focused on pushing entrepreneurial thinking and practices into the places they’re needed the most–inside established businesses.

Edit by JDC

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Posted in Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Innovation - Creativity | Leave a Comment »

Hard to believe … the BLS streak rolls right on.

October 25, 2012

I though the BLS might find some old time religion – or at least hire a new stats guy – since they got hammered on the incredible 7.8% unemployment number.

Not so.

And, the BLS streak — understating initial claims – continued.

Now we’re up to at least 25 election season weeks in a row that the BLS’s “headline number” has under-reported the number of initial unemployment claims … and cast the jobs situation as brighter than it really is.

Based on today’s BLS report, the number for the week ending October 13 was revised upward from 388,000 to 392,000 … making this week’s headline look 4,000 better.

Glad the election is only 12 days away.

Wanna bet that the BLS makes a post-election change to their methodology?

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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Statistical Bias, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »

Contrasting styles …

October 25, 2012

Iowa is a swing state.

The Des Moines Register is expected to endorse Obama on Sunday.

Here’s  today’s front page from the Register …

 

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Posted in 2012 Campaign | 1 Comment »

Blame it on Mr. Bill … say, what?

October 25, 2012

Holy alibi, Batman.

Circle October 24, 2012 on your calendars.

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It’s the day that the NY Times posted to the official record “How Bill Clinton May Have Hurt the Obama Campaign”:

… there is one crucial way in which the 42nd president (Clinton) may not have served the 44th (Obama) quite as well.

In these final weeks before the election, Mr. Clinton’s expert advice about how to beat Mitt Romney is starting to look suspect.

…  just after Mr. Romney locked up the Republican nomination, Mr. Obama’s team abruptly switched its strategy for how to define him.

Up to then, the White House had been portraying Mr. Romney … as inauthentic and inconstant, a soulless climber who would say anything to get the job.

But it was Mr. Clinton who forcefully argued to Mr. Obama’s aides that the campaign had it wrong.

The best way to go after Mr. Romney, the former president said, was to publicly grant that he was the “severe conservative” he claimed to be, and then hang that unpopular ideology around his neck.

Ever since, the Obama campaign has been hammering Mr. Romney as too conservative, while essentially giving him a pass for having traveled a tortured path on issues like health care reform, abortion and gay rights.

It’s not hard to understand why Mr. Obama and his advisers took Mr. Clinton’s advice to heart; to disregard it would be like telling Derek Jeter, “Hey man, appreciate the input, but I think I know how to make that flip play from the hole just fine on my own.”

For a while this summer and into the fall, the Obama-Clinton strategy seemed to be working flawlessly.

But in recent weeks, starting with the first debate, the challenger has made a brazen and frantic dash to the center, and Mr. Obama has often seemed off-balance, as if stunned that Mr. Romney thinks he can get away with such an obvious change of course so late in the race.

Which, apparently, he can.

Couple of questions:

1. Wasn’t it Bill Clinton who stole the show at the DNC and gave Obama’s campaign some oomph?

2. Wasn’t that Bill Clinton (with Springsteen) revving up the crowds in Ohio?

3. Didn’t Hillary just fall on her sword to protect Obama in the Benghazi mess?

4. Isn’t it a bit early to start pinning the blame for a loss?

Of course, I’m hoping that the Times knows something that I don’t … and the election is a fait accompli.

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80 CEO’s call for deficit action … only 80?

October 25, 2012

Lead story in the WSJ today is that 80 CEOs (click for listhave banded together to nudge Congress towards bipartisan deficit reduction … i.e. get the fiscal cliff resolved.

The group – calling themselves Fix the Debt – issued a public statement.

Here are snippets from the Journal’s recap:

Any fiscal plan “that can succeed both financially and politically” has to limit the growth of health-care spending, make Social Security solvent and “include comprehensive and pro-growth tax reform, which broadens the base, lowers rates, raises revenues and reduces the deficit.”

“You can’t tax your way to fix this problem, and you can’t cut entitlements enough to fix this problem.”

The executives didn’t endorse Mr. Obama’s proposal to raise the marginal income-tax rates for the top 2% of taxpayers or any other proposal.

Rather, they called for an overhaul of the tax code that, among things, would eliminate or reduce deductions, credits and loopholes (known as “broadening the base”), and one that also would bring the Treasury more revenue than the existing code does.

Notably absent from the Fix the Debt list are CEOs from big U.S. energy companies, some of whom fear that tax increases will fall more heavily on them.

Hard-line foes of tax increases aren’t likely to be moved by the CEOs.

“When bipartisan deals are struck promising to cut spending and raise taxes, the spending cuts don’t materialize but the tax hikes do,”

Raises a couple of questions:

1. Where have these jabrones been?

2. Only 80 CEOs?  Where are the rest?

3. Is a public statement rehashing the obvious the best they could do?

C’mon guys, mobilize for the good of the country.

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Posted in Economy, Fiscal cliff, Fortune 500 | 1 Comment »

“I inherited the deficit” … say, what?

October 25, 2012

Draw your own conclusion, but looks to me like Obama inherited a $500 billion deficit

…. goosed it by a trillion dollars to kinda stimulate the economy

… and has hung well over a trillion dollars, way after the Stimulus.

What’s he talking about?

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Source: Hot Air.com

* * * * *

While we’re at it, note how the current recovery stacks up against prior recession recoveries …

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Source: Hot Air.com

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Economy, Jobs - Unemployment, Obama, Recession | 2 Comments »

Compare the economic recovery plans …

October 25, 2012

Seriously, before you vote, at least glance at the plans being offered by Obama and Romney.

You decide which is substantial and which is fluff ..

* * * * *

click to view very short video intro

click to view plan

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click to see Business Insider’s summary of the plan’s highlights:
Obama Has Released A 27-Point Plan For His Second Term, And It’s A Doozy

* * * * *

click to view

image

click to see Business Insider’s summary or Romney’s plan
Here’s Everything We Know Now About Mitt Romney’s Economic Plan

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“These jeans are made of garbage” … and, that’s a good thing.

October 25, 2012

Punch line: Levi’s, eager to reduce its reliance on water-intensive cotton, has already used 3.5 million plastic bottles in its new Waste​<​Less jeans.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Bloomberg Businessweek’s, “Levi’s Goes Green With Waste​<​Less Jeans”

levi_strauss_water_less_01

Most apparel companies work hard to give their clothes the sheen of sophistication or whimsy. Levi Strauss is trying hard not to.

When its latest line of jeans arrives in stores early next year, the pitch will be: “These jeans are made of garbage.” Crushed brown and green plastic bottles will be on display nearby.

In 2007, Levi’s was among the first in the apparel industry to conduct a life-cycle assessment of some of its major products.

After measuring environmental impacts … Levi’s found that 49 percent of the water use during the lifetime of a pair of 501 jeans occurred at the very beginning, with cotton farmers.

It turned out that the manufacturing process, where Levi’s can exert the most control, had the least impact on water and energy use.

So Levi’s joined the Better Cotton Initiative … to teach farmers how to grow cotton with less water.

The first of the cotton was harvested last year, and Levi’s blended its share into more than 5 million pairs of jeans.

“Is turning eight bottles of plastic into a pair of jeans worth it? I think so,” says James Curleigh, president of the Levi’s brand.

Curleigh … argues that any reduction in Levi’s cotton use, however small, is worth it: “Cotton is the single most volatile commodity in the apparel industry. Never mind sustainability for a minute. If I could come up with a way to put 20 percent of something else that is cost-neutral and has a reliable source, I would probably take it anyway.”

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Education: “Under my leadership … starting to finally make progress.” … say, what?

October 24, 2012

During the last debate, Obama declared:

  • ”You know, under my leadership, what we’ve done is reformed education, working with governors, 46 states. We’ve seen progress and gains in schools that were having a terrible time. And they’re starting to finally make progress.”

Ezra Klein – overexposed (and over-rated) liberal WashPost writer tried to prove the point for his favorite President … presenting reading and math scores for the past 20 years.

For reading, Klein concludes:

  • “For eighth grade reading, students did better on NAEP, the gold standard for the quantitative measurement of student learning, in 2011 than in 2009, but fourth-grade scores were unchanged.”

Ken concludes:

  • For 4th graders, reading scores improved by 4% under Bush’s much maligned “No Student Left Behind” program (NSLB) … from 213 to 221 … and haven’t budged under Obama’s “Race to the Top” (RTTT)
  • For 8th graders. reading scores have been essentially flat-lined for the past 15 years, with neither NSLB or RTTT having moved the needle.

* * * * * *

For math, Klein concludes:

  • “Math scores significantly improved across the board (under Obama).

Ken concludes:

  • For 4th graders, math scores improved by 7% under Bush’s much maligned “No Student Left Behind” program (NSLB) … from 226 to 240 … and increased by 1 measly point under Obama’s “Race to the Top” (RTTT)
  • For 8th graders. math scores improved by 4% under Bush’s much maligned “No Student Left Behind” program (NSLB) … from 273 to 283 … and increased by 1 measly point under Obama’s “Race to the Top” (RTTT)

* * * * *

Bottom line:

1) Tell me again why No Child Left Behind was so bad?

2) Maybe Klein should take the math test.

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He’s back … and, wants you to make his day.

October 24, 2012

After his quirky empty chair splash at the RNC, Clint has resurfaced in swing state ads.

click to view

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Morning line: Intrade @ 55-45

October 24, 2012

Obama’s “futures” sold-off on Intrade after his debate “win” on Monday …

Interesting, since the stock market sold off, too … recently, the relationship has been an  inverse.

image

* * * * *

Side note: Just me, or was all the debate chatter yesterday about horses & bayonets?

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Gallup: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

October 24, 2012

Based on the most recent Gallup poll, the economy ranks – clear and away – the top issue on both men’s and women’s minds these days.

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* * * * *

And, according to the latest WJ-NBC poll, Romney leads on the economic issues …

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Obama to Biden: “Shut up.”

October 24, 2012

Not really.

But, I was surprised during the debate what Obama said when talking about the decision to whack Bin Laden:

  • “… decisions are not always popular. Those decisions generally — generally are not poll-tested. And even some in my own party, including my current vice president, had the same critique as you did.” Transcript

image

There have been reports that Biden was a no vote.

Obama wasn’t asked the question, so I wonder why Obama outted his foreign relations guru VP during the debate?

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Romney & Obama wield Mean Girls GIFs, pumpkin bread recipes & Spotify playlists

October 24, 2012

Punch line:In 2012, it is not enough for candidates to shake some hands, kiss a baby or two and run some TV ads. They also need to be posting funny pictures on Tumblr and snarky comments on Twitter.

* * * * *

Excerpted from The New York Times’, “Campaigns Use Social Media to Lure Younger Voters”

Social-media-reacts-Who-won-Wednesday-nights-election

If the presidential campaigns of 2008 were dipping a toe into social media like Facebook and Twitter, their 2012 versions are well into the deep end.

At stake, the campaigns say they believe, are votes from citizens, particularly younger ones, who may not watch television or read the paper but spend plenty of time on the social Web.

The techniques may be relatively new, but they are based on some old-fashioned political principles … “The more people you talk to, the more likely you are to win” .

“It’s about authentic, two-way communication,” said Adam Fetcher, deputy press secretary for the Obama campaign.

“Social media is a natural extension of our massive grass-roots organization.”

Though the returns on such efforts are not easily quantifiable, neither party is taking any chances.

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Debate: Day after thoughts …

October 23, 2012

The broad stroke: B-O-R-I-N-G.  Yeah, Obama landed more punches … but he didn’t knock Romney out, didn’t knock him to the canvas, didn’t even give him wobbly knees … won’t stop Romney’s momentum.

My analogy: It was like a basketball game … Romney was sitting on a lead, taking the air out of the ball … Obama was scrambling trying to cause turnovers … whenever Obama fouled, Romney made the free throws … so, Obama won the 4th quarter (i.e. the last debate) … but not the game (the debate series)

Random thoughts:

  1. Wonder what the ratings will be … I was flipping between the debate and Bears-Lions … how many folks were like me?  Or worse, simply switched on MNF or the NLCS game 7 …  I’m into this stuff and I lost interest.
  2. General theme: Middle East is an insolvable mess ..  well-intended support for democracy (i.e. anti-dictators) has backfired … now, an entire region is controlled by out-of-control gangs with weak governments that are either in cahoots or ineffective … if it weren’t for the oil, most people wouldn’t care.
  3. Candi Crowley’s attempt to help Obama backfired … Romney didn’t have to relitigate Libya since it has been on the news for the past week … and since the press is stuck following up on the story … the Libya mess helped Romney by weakening Obama’s foreign policy advantage … now, back to the economy.
  4. I’m struck by how Obama heaped the Libya mess on himself … classic unforced errors – trying to be “too cute by half” … he didn’t have to start saying “al Qaeda is extinguished”, or on the run or whatever … folks would have bought “weakened but still a threat” … and honesty would have worked with Benghazi “Tried to keep Marines out of Libya, thought security was adequate … obviously, it wasn’t … caused a serious tragedy … redouble efforts to make sure it doesn’t happen again” … folks would have bought that, too … anybody with a pulse (don’t even need a brain) knows the area is a mess with a bunch of crazies running around … Instead, Libya became an issue and made Obama look like he was lying – even if he wasn’t.
  5. For me, most interesting was switching back from the Bears game … sometimes with the mute button on … Romney looked fatigued but Presidential … Obama looked ruffled – eyes darting, grimaces, goofy smile … I bet that’s an impression many folks drew.
  6. Based on CNN instpolls, Romney emerged as likeable as Obama (48 to 47) … and, “accepting as commander-in-chief” (60%) … soccer moms didn’t see a war mongering son-of-George Bush.
  7. Obama’s best line (“horses and bayonets”) will, in fact backfire … folks in ship-building areas (Norfolk & Portsmouth Virginia) probably want to keep their jobs alive for awhile … remember, VA is a swing state.
  8. Surprised that Obama kept teeing up economic issues … gave Romney legitimacy to repeat his powerful riff on the economy … didn’t Obama think that Romney would be ready re: the auto bailouts?
  9. Strongest Mitt line might have legs: “Attacking me isn’t an agenda for the future” … gets Obama for not having a plan and plays to the women who reportedly don’t like the negative stuff.
  10. Is “keep on truckin’” something you want to hear a President say in a national debate?

Civility has taken a hit … and debates will never be the same … from now on, they will be cage matches with the crowd screaming for blood.   When channel surfing the other nite, I stopped for a few minutes on C-Span’s replay of the Elder Bush- Dukakis debate … issues were about the same, policy differences were about the same, but demeanor of both guys was, uh, civil and presidential.  Will never happen again.

* * * * *
Great analyst quotesfrom the UK Telegraph …

The President wheeled out what must have seemed like a great, pre-planned zinger: “I think Governor Romney maybe hasn’t spent enough time looking at how our military works …  Well, governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets because the nature of our military’s changed.”

The audience laughed, Obama laughed, It was funny.

But, Twitter immediately lit up with examples of how the US Army does still use horses and bayonets (horses were used during the invasion of Afghanistan).

Romney sucked up Obama’s abuse and retained a rigid poker face all night.

He looked like a Commander in Chief; Obama looked like a lawyer.

Who would you rather vote for?

Romney tried his darnedest to bring everything back to the economy and Obama seemed to say in every answer, “So what we need to do in the Middle East is talk more about how rubbish my opponent is.”

It’s almost lucky that Obama isn’t running unopposed in this election because then he’d have nothing to run on at all.

The real difference was in style. In his closing statement – after Obama was done making the Ace of Spades disappear – Romney channelled Reagan by looking straight into the camera and asserting his faith in America.

It was empty, sugary stuff that will make liberals sick. But it was infinitely preferable to Obama’s constant, nasty attacks. Sometimes in life, the nice guys do win.

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What did Mitt say about the auto bailout? … “Check the record”

October 23, 2012

In the last debate , Obama challenged folks to “check the record” re: what Romney said about the auto bailouts.

Ok, we did … and it’s very interesting.

Obama was talking about a 2008 op-ed in the NY Times.

image

Yeah, the op-ed was titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”.

That’s inflammatory since most folks think that “bankrupt” and “go out of business” are synonymous.

They’re not.

Bankruptcy is a process for stabilizing a failing company … not necessarily – and not usually – a liquidation (think practically every airline).

Romney was arguing that GM should go through the process and follow the in-place bankruptcy laws … rather than having the Feds dictate the terms for winners & losers.

What Romney opposed was dishing bailout checks … and letting taxpayers pick up the tab.

Specifically, he said “Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check. “

His plan had a couple of basic components:

  1. New labor agreements to neutralize the $2,000 per car cost disadvantage
  2. New management from best of breed non-automotive industries (think Alan Mulally – the turnaround guy that Ford got from Boeing)
  3. A new labor-management relationship … “Getting more and more pay for less and less work is a dead-end street.”
  4. A strong dealer network … “When sales are down, you don’t want to lose the only people who can get them to grow. “
  5. $20 billion in gov’t funded research … “done at universities, at research labs and even through public-private collaboration.”
  6. “The federal government should also rectify the imbedded tax penalties that favor foreign carmakers. “
  7. “The federal government should provide guarantees for post-bankruptcy financing and assure car buyers that their warranties are not at risk.”

In short, “a managed bankruptcy … not a bailout check.”

No mention of letting the industry die.

Obama better hope that nobody in Ohio or Michigan takes his advice and checks the record.

* * * * *

While we’re at it … yes, there were winners – mostly members of the UAW.

And there were losers like:

  • GM bondholders (think retirees and widows) whose secured loans were subordinated to the UAW
  • The 20,000 non-union Delphi salaried retirees, who lost their pensions and benefits programs as they were headed into retirement
  • The profitable GM dealerships that were closed because they spoke out against the Fed’s bailout process (I personally know the principles of one such dealership in Baltimore).
  • US taxpayers who are still holding the bag for the $25 billion bailout Source

Again, Obama better hope that nobody in Ohio or Michigan takes his advice and checks the record.

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Charge your cell phone … then charge your burger on it.

October 23, 2012

Punch line: Not many consumers are currently using mobile phones to make purchases, but that’s about to change.

As more companies start to offer and advertise mobile payment options, consumers will start to spend more using their mobile phones.

* * * * *
Excerpted from Adage’s, “Mobile Payments Still Tiny, Set to Explode in Next Four Years”

A few people have traded in their wallets for their phones to make small purchases like coffee and movie tickets, but we’re about to see explosive growth in the market as more consumers use smartphones to pay for things like groceries and gas.

Research firms estimate that the total transaction value for mobile payments in the U.S. will be $640 million this year, but that will grow to more than $62 billion in 2016 as a bigger segment of the population uses their phones to buy medium-ticket items, including fast-food restaurants.

us-proximity-mobile-payment-transaction-value

The average user of mobile payments will spend $62 a year with their phones in 2012, but that grows to $1,294 in 2016.

The steep growth curve assumes merchants continue to adopt mobile payments and that using phones for purchases demonstrates enough value to consumers to replace credit cards and cash.

The mobile payments market today includes startups like Square, LevelUp and The Protean Echo; services backed by credit card companies like Visa and American Express ; a consortium of big merchants like Target and 7-11 and CVS; tech companies like PayPal, Google Wallet and Apple’s Passbook; not to mention Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile which have their own consortium, ISIS.

While the array of platforms and technologies creates confusion for consumers, it will also raise awareness broadly, as payment options become more ubiquitous and various players spend on marketing to gain users.

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McDonald’s reverts to dollar menu to build loyalty … say, what?

October 23, 2012

According to the WSJ …

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McDonald’s  reported a 3.5% decline in third-quarter earnings as sales slowed more dramatically than expected because of a sluggish economy and a disappointing marketing campaign.

McDonald’s … conceded that it needs to be more aggressive in advertising low prices.

In a weaker economy, customers may not go out to eat as frequently and tend to stop getting extras like drinks and desserts and premium items like Angus burgers, which all offer higher profits.

McDonald’s move earlier this year to shift its marketing focus in the U.S. to the higher-priced and more profitable “Extra Value Menu” from the successful “Dollar Menu” didn’t “resonate as strongly” with consumers.

“We’re going back to talk of the Dollar Menu.”

The company hopes that focusing attention to its lower prices will attract more customers and gain their loyalty.

This way, when the economy starts to improve, McDonald’s will have a larger consumer base and more ability to raise prices.

OK, I understand that low prices move burgers.

In fact, I think the McDouble for a buck is the best food value on the planet.

But, face it Mickey, low prices appeal to price-sensitive customers … not loyalists.

Trust me, when you try to jack the prices up, their (and my) “loyalty” will shift quickly to the new “value” burger joint.

Just ask Subway.

I’m sure they’ve been wondering “where’s Ken?” since they shifted from $5 Foot Longs to … a couple at $5, some at $5.50, some at $6.50, etc.

Let me repeat: you don’t build loyalty with bargain basement pricing … you just move a ton of burgers at low prices.

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Interesting polling factoid …

October 22, 2012

RealClearPolitics included 7 polls in it’s poll=of-polls today … 4 have Romney leading, 2 have Obama leading, and 1 is a tie.

The 2 that have Obama leading are co-sponsored by conservative publications: Investor’s Business Daily and the Washington Times.

Go figure …

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Obama’s social media barrage …

October 22, 2012

According to AdAge …

Obama is out slugging Romney in digital with 93% ‘Share of Voice’ in Online Ads.

The Barack Obama and Mitt Romney camps may be emptying their war chests this month to go head-to-head in TV spots in swing states, but the online battle is a more lopsided affair.

According to research by the analytics company Moat, the Obama campaign had a 93.3% share of voice in terms of display-impression volume in September across the top 20,000 publishers, compared with the Romney campaign’s 6.7%.

Obama had 497 creative executions deployed across the web compared with the Romney camp’s 90.

30% of the Obama ads have a Yahoo Genome tag, which “suggests use of audience and data targeting.”

The top five domains where President Obama’s ads were spotted in that period were NYTimes.com, RR.com, Oprah.com, Reference.com and Yahoo.com.

Romney’s top five were AOL.com, RR.com, Chow.com, GameSpot.com and Maxpreps.com.

The scale and sophistication of the Obama campaign’s digital ad operation should come as no surprise … the campaign opened a “tech field office” in San Francisco last winter that’s staffed largely by volunteers who work around their day jobs.

Romney’s digital director acknowledged that his side is being outspent on digital, but said that they’re trying to win by purchasing efficiently and working with third-party vendors to identify key buckets of voters in swing state.

“If [they] have money to burn … good for them … It’s a spray-and-pray model.”

““Obama had 27 million followers on his Facebook page, we had less than 5 million … But when the ruling came, we saw 27% engagement with our audience while they only got 1.5%.”

The post-mortem to this election will be interesting … both from a political perspective and re: target marketing and digital media.

Obama’s team is clearly at the forefront of using technology to pinpoint people, dope them out psychographically, and get to them through digital means … Romney’s team is pretty “old school”, largely relying on traditional research and methods.

Only complicator is that Obama is spending lots of $$$ on that old school stuff, too … so might be had to sort out which of his marketing techniques are delivering.

And, of course, the product and message matter, too …

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Update: What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

October 22, 2012

Back in January, Homa Files posted the answer to the question.

At the time, it looked like Ron Paul might make a run as a 3rd party candidate, potentially being a spoiler, depriving Obama or Romney of the necessary 270 electoral votes.

Well, Paul is out of the picture … but there’s increased chatter that Obama and Romney could end up tied in electoral votes.

So, what happens if neither presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

As we reported in January, according to the Electoral College web site …

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote.

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes, with each Senator casting one vote for Vice President.

Note that for President, each state gets one vote in the House … not each rep.  So a majority of each state’s reps determine the state’s vote.

And, yes, it’s possible that the tickets could be split.

For example, the GOP House-elect would certainly pick Mitt … and the Senate Dem majority could select Biden … and certainly would if the Senate-elect is split 50-50 between Dems and GOP.   For details, see our post Trick question: How many electoral votes does Romney need to become President?

* * * * *

Click here for a short video: What If the Presidential Election is a Tie?

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The perils of celebrity endorsements … sponsors tell Lance to peddle somebody else’s wares.

October 22, 2012

Punch line: Despite sticking by athletes during controversial times, Kobe Bryant and Tiger Woods included, Nike has dropped Lance Armstrong from his contract as the doping allegations continue.

* * * * *

Excerpted from the New York Times’, “Armstrong is Dropped by Nike as he Quits Role at His Charity”

A week after the United States Anti-Doping Agency made public its evidence in a doping case against Lance Armstrong, Armstrong on Wednesday stepped down as chairman of Livestrong, his cancer foundation, the organization that inspired millions fighting the disease.

The fallout from the antidoping agency’s report also prompted Nike, the company that stood by Armstrong through more than a decade’s worth of doping allegations, to terminate his contract.

18armstrong2-popup

“I have had the great honor of serving as this foundation’s chairman for the last five years and its mission and success are my top priorities,” Armstrong said in a statement. “Today therefore, to spare the foundation any negative effects as a result of controversy surrounding my cycling career, I will conclude my chairmanship.”

Armstrong, the seven-time Tour winner who denies ever doping, founded the organization in 1997 after he survived testicular cancer and it sold millions of yellow Livestrong wristbands and went on to partner with Nike to sell millions of dollars of Livestrong gear.

In a statement on Wednesday morning, Nike said the evidence that Armstrong had doped was so overwhelming that it could no longer partner with him. In the past, the company stood by athletes like Kobe Bryant, who was accused of sexual assault but never convicted, and Tiger Woods, who gained international notoriety for his extramarital affairs. Nike severed ties with Michael Vick when he went to prison for his role in a dogfighting ring but later re-signed him.

“Due to the seemingly insurmountable evidence that Lance Armstrong participated in doping and misled Nike for more than a decade, it is with great sadness that we have terminated our contract with him,” the statement said. “Nike does not condone the use of illegal performance enhancing drugs in any manner. Nike plans to continue support of the Livestrong initiatives created to unite, inspire and empower people affected by cancer.”

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An indicator of voter enthusiasm … and network cred.

October 22, 2012

What people watch is – in my opinion – an indicator of their preferences … since folks tend to read & watch stuff that is consistent with their beliefs.

And, the numbers of people watching is a rough indicator of intensity – how many folks are on the wavelength.

So, let’s look at recent cable news ratings …

Fox primetime averages about 3.5 million viewers … MSNBC about 1.5  … and CNN under 750k.

Note that Stewart & Colbert get  categorized as news shows (which still makes me scratch my head) … outdraws MSNBC and creams CNN.

Fox drawing more than double MSNBC has got to be good news for Romney … Comedy Central’s draw must be good news for Obama.

My prediction: Candi Crowley’s debate performance – interjecting herself into the Benghazi challenge, interrupting Mitt 26 times, giving Obama 9% more air time – will hurt her credibility as a newsperson and certainly won’t help CNN’s constant claim of being an unbiased source of news. That network’s slide will continue.

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Reprinted from Drudge

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WSJ/NBC: Post-debate bounce … for Romney

October 21, 2012

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll  released Sunday …

Romney Surges to Tie Obama in National Poll

A late surge in support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has put him in a dead heat with President Barack Obama.

Among likely voters, the candidates are now tied, 47% to 47%.

Mr. Romney has pulled abreast of the president for the first time all year in the Journal poll, erasing a three-point lead among likely voters that Mr. Obama had in late September.

Mr. Romney’s surge followed his strong debate performance in Denver early this month and a contentious second debate with Mr. Obama last week.

Hmmm

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It’s not Candy’s fault that Barack speaks slowly … say, what?

October 21, 2012

According to TMZ …

CNN’s Managing Editor, Mark Whitaker, sent out an internal email praising Candy Crowley and trying to blunt criticism that she was unfair to Mitt Romney.

“Let’s start with a big round of applause for Candy Crowley for a superb job under the most difficult circumstances imaginable.

She and her team had to select and sequence questions in a matter of hours, and then she had to deal with the tricky format, the nervous questioners, the aggressive debaters, all while shutting out the pre-debate attempts to spin and intimidate her.

She pulled it off masterfully.

The reviews on Candy’s performance have been overwhelmingly positive but Romney supporters are going after her on two points, no doubt because their man did not have as good a night as he had in Denver.

On the legitimacy of Candy fact-checking Romney on Obama’s Rose Garden statement, it should be stressed that she was just stating a point of fact: Obama did talk about an act (or acts) of terror, no matter what you think he meant by that at the time.

On why Obama got more time to speak, it should be noted that Candy and her commission producers tried to keep it even but that Obama went on longer largely because he speaks more slowly.

We’re going to do a word count to see whether, as in Denver, Romney actually got more words in even if he talked for a shorter period of time.”

The dude failed to mention that Crowley walked back her “facts” … saying in the post-game show that Romney was “right in the main” … nor did he mention that after the debate, Obama told the town hall questioned a different truth.

A “word count” ???

You just can’t make this stuff up.

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What does Vegas say?

October 20, 2012

That’s the question a loyal posed in response to our post The state of the race … 3 views.

Well, Vegas doesn’t take bets on the Presidential election, so best we can do is PredictWise … which averages Intrade and Betfair

Of course, these odds are heavily influenced by the polls.

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The state of the race … 3 views.

October 20, 2012

With a little more than 2 weeks to go in the Presidential race ….

Gallup’s daily tracking survey reported that Romney’s lead widened to 7-points … 52% to 45%.

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Karl Rove (hard right, of course) was on talk shows yesterday saying that no candidate who has been over 50% on Gallup 3 weeks out has ever lost the general election.

Nate Silver (New York Times, hard left) was leading the charge to debunk Gallup.  More on Nate below

* * * * *

RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls had Romney up by a point at 47.7%

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But, RealClearPolitics had a major change in it’s electoral votes recap.

For the first time it’s tally of “likely & leans” states had Romney in the lead … 206 to 201.

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When toss-up states (i.e. those within the margins of errors) are assigned to candidates, Obama maintains a narrowing lead 294 to 244.

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* * * * *

Nate Silver of the New York Times is the self-anointed gold standard of polling and darling of the left.

He throws a lot of numbers around … says he’s unbiased … but seems to have a penchant for cherry-picking.

Case in point: the Gallup results.

Silver’s prediction model weights Gallup pretty high … 12%.

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But, since Gallup didn’t give the answer that Nate liked this week, he wrote an article titled “Gallup vs. the World” that said Gallup performs poorly when out of the consensus … so, it should be discounted or dismissed as an outlier.

In fact, he went counter Gallup and increased Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College to 65.7 percent from 64.8 percent.

More specifically, he pegged the Electoral College at 292 to 246 … roughly in line with RCP’s no leaners scenario.

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And, Silver continued to show Obama leading in the popular vote by 1.5 points … with a majority.

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* * * * *

OK, with these markers set, we’ll circle back on these surveys after the election.

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Posted in 2012 Campaign, Polls & Surveys | 2 Comments »

The Al Smith dinner … funny stuff.

October 19, 2012

Dennis Miller has been on the campaign trail with Romney this week.  I’m betting that he wrote much of Mitt’s Al Smith roast material … it’s pretty funny with a bit of edge.

Here’s the video … worth watching.  My fav punch lines are below.

  • “Usually I get invited to events like this to be the designated driver.”
  • “This show is brought to you by the letter O and the number 16 trillion”
  • Re: debate prep: “I just abstain from alcohol for 65 years.”
  • Re: debate: “Big Bird never saw it coming.”
  • Overheard Pres. Obama: “So little time, so much to redistribute”.
  • “Polls are now showing Obama leading from behind”
  • Obama to the Pope: “Just blame everything on John Paul II”
  • Obama to voters: “Are you better off now than you were 4 weeks ago”
  • Tomorrow’s headline: “Obama engages Catholics, Romney dines with rich people.”
  • “There’ more to life …”

 

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