Archive for December, 2012
December 31, 2012
According to the Social Security Administration, the number of (former) workers collecting disability benefits hit a record 8,827,795 in December.
I’ll stipulate that the vast majority of the 8.8 million are honest folks who really can’t work because they’re disabled … and, I realize that an aging work force has a higher propensity for disablement.
But c’mon, man … this is starting to smell pretty fishy..
The Feds are dishing out over $135 billion annually in disability payments.
How much of the $135 billion do you imagine is going to the folks that Dateline keeps exposing as frauds?
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Here are some more interesting Social Security factoids …
(more…)
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Posted in Disabily insurance payments, Payroll taxes, Social Security, Taxes | 1 Comment »
December 30, 2012
Answer: The pay gap among graduates of elite business schools is widening, according to new research from Bloomberg Businessweek’s biennial survey of MBA graduates.
Female grads of top MBA programs command only 93 percent of the starting pay of their male classmates. The gap gets bigger as years go by.
Here are some specific findings …
(more…)
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Posted in Careers & Interviewing, Compensation - Pay, MBAs | 2 Comments »
December 28, 2012
According to new Census data reported in the WSJ …
New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut and Rhode Island led the country last year in “out-migration” (measured as a share of their population).
The Tax Foundation ranks New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island among the five worst business tax climates.
Connecticut, which raised income, sales and corporate taxes last year to the tune of $1.5 billion, is not far behind.
Illinois also increased income taxes last year by 67% and the corporate rate by 46% and will likely seek to hike taxes again to backfill the state pension fund, which is $83 billion in arrears.
Where are they going?
(more…)
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Posted in Tax burden, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 27, 2012
Somebody explain this to me.
Turbo-tax Tim Geithner sent Harry Reid a conveniently timed letter yesterday, reading in part:
Dear Mr. Leader:
I am writing to inform you that the statutory debt limit will be reached on December 31, 2012, and to notify you that the Treasury Department will shortly begin taking certain extraordinary measures authorized by law to temporarily postpone the date that the United States would otherwise default on its legal obligations.
OK, the fact that the U.S. is broke and has exhausted its credit line is not new news.
Here what I don’t understand.
(more…)
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Posted in Capital gains - taxes, Debt - Deficit, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 27, 2012
In a cool 15 minute TED Talk, tech entrepreneur Kevin Slavin tells how algorithms have reached across industries and into every day life.
A couple of lines caught my attention:
- There are more than 2,000 physicists working on Wall Street developing operational algorithms
- Massive scale speed trading is dependent on millisecond read & respond rates …
- So, firms are physically literally locating right next to internet routing hubs to cut transmission times
- And, of course, there isn’t time for human intervention and control
- “We may be building whole worlds we don’t really understand, and can’t control.”
Worth listening to this pitch … a very engaging geek who may be onto something big.
click the pic to view video
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Posted in Algorithms - algoritmic applications, Analytical methods, procedures & protocols, Big data | Leave a Comment »
December 26, 2012
In a prior post My computer’s algorithms tell me that you’re willing to pay higher prices we reported that online retailers were using software that helps them detect shoppers who can afford to pay more or are in a hurry to buy … and, present pricier options to them or simply charge more for the same stuff.
For example:
Cookies stored in shoppers’ web browsers may reveal where else they have been looking, giving some clues as to their income bracket and price-sensitivity.
A shopper’s internet address may be linked to his physical address, letting sellers offer, say, one price for well-to-do zips, another for low income zones.
“Price customization” software can collate such clues with profiles of individual shoppers that internet sellers buy from online-data-aggregation firms … All fairly cheaply.
For example, Orbitz detects whether people browsing its site are using an Apple Mac or a Windows PC and recommends pricier hotels to Mac users.
Some online firms charge people different rates for the same products … for instance, by charging full price for those assumed to be willing and able to pay it, while offering promotional prices to the rest.
Allocating discounts with price-customization software typically brings in two to four times as much money as offering the same discounts at random,
One way to do this is to monitor how quickly shoppers click through towards the online seller’s payment page: those who already seem set on buying need not be tempted with a special offer.
Similarly, companies are beginning to scan Twitter for info on the shoppers since their tweets give useful hints about whether a discount is needed to clinch the sale.
Well, a WSJ investigation revealed that the online pricing tricksters are getting even trickier …
(more…)
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Posted in Dynamic pricing, Internet Marketing - eCommerce -, Mktg - Pricing | Leave a Comment »
December 24, 2012
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and HAPPY NEW YEAR to all !
This short video was sent to me by a friend a couple of years ago
It really resonated with me, so I like to share it at Christmas time.
… back with you after the New Year
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click to view (best with audio on)
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Posted in Holidays | Leave a Comment »
December 24, 2012
In a prior post Nums: Stay in school ! we showed that the unemployment rate for college grads is only about 4% … way below the national average … and well below the rate for other education levels.
But, how well do those college degreed jobs pay?
And, more specifically, which undergrad majors pay the most?
(more…)
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Posted in College, Unemployment, Wages | Leave a Comment »
December 24, 2012
Answer: Why French Parents Are Superior
Punch line: While Americans Fret Over Modern Parenthood, the French Are Raising Happy, Well-Behaved Children Without All the Anxiety.
Excerpt:
The French have managed to be involved with their families without becoming obsessive.
They assume that even good parents aren’t at the constant service of their children, and that there is no need to feel guilty about this.
“For me, the evenings are for the parents,” one Parisian mother told me.
“My daughter can be with us if she wants, but it’s adult time.”
French parents want their kids to be stimulated, but not all the time.
While some American toddlers are getting Mandarin tutors and preliteracy training, French kids are — by design — toddling around by themselves.
Click to view the 9rest of the Top !0 most read WSJ articles
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Posted in France, French, Parenting | Leave a Comment »
December 21, 2012
It seems that all of the fiscal cliff attention is obsessively focused on upping income taxes (oops, I meant raising “revenues”).
Specifically, ideas are being floated to change marginal rates, eliminate deductions and close loopholes. All without dampening employment.
Yeah, right.
If the goal is really to raise tax revenue and boost employment, I suggest that the Feds look someplace else – at the payroll tax system.
For more background details, see our prior post Background: Here’s a way to raise tax revenues & create jobs.
Keep reading for the details …
(more…)
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Posted in Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 21, 2012
This Homa FIles brief was originally posted July 23, 2008. It’s long, … loaded with with pivotal facts.
Since expiration of the Bush tax cuts looks increasingly likely, I thought they’re worth another look — just as background
On the 2008 campaign trail, candidate Obama broad-brushed all of the Bush tax cuts as “for the wealthy”.
Now, OMB estimates that extending the Bush tax cuts in their entirety would cost $3.7 trillion over 10 years … of that amount over 80% goes to folks making less than $200,000 – $250,000 annually.
In other words, over 80% of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy went to Obama-defined “non-wealthy” folks — some of whom pay income taxes, and many of whom don’t.
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Summary: We’ve all heard the rants about the cuts in the top bracket rate, capital gains rate, dividend taxes, and estate taxes.
But, when was the last time that your heard anybody mention the new 10% bracket, larger and refundable child and earned income credits, negative income taxes, elimination of the marriage tax penalty, or expanded college benefits?
Here are the details of the Bush tax cuts …
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Posted in Bush tax cuts, Fiscal cliff, Tax deductions, Tax reform, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 21, 2012
According to Business Week, Mercedes has bounced back and regained the lead from BMW.
Lexus has fallen to third.
Cadillac has halted its slide and is hanging on to the #4 slot … but, Lincoln is going, going, …
Source: Business Week
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Posted in Autos - Travel | Leave a Comment »
December 20, 2012
In the fiscal cliff talks, I think that the Feds – both Obama & Congress – are demonstrating “no brain” thinking – working ineffectively on the wrong stuff.
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Specifically, in the fiscal cliff talks, practically all of the focus has been on jacking up the marginal tax rates for millionaires and billionaires making more than $250,000.
Payroll taxes – for Social Security & Medicare – have been largely pushed off-stage.
That’s because both Dems & the GOP seem to agree that the 2% payroll “tax holiday” should be allowed to expire.
That may be true, but I think the payroll tax structure may be the key to hitting the seemingly conflicting objectives of raising tax revenues and creating jobs.
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Let’s lay out some basics:
What happens to whom if the current payroll tax holiday expires?
(more…)
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Posted in Fiscal cliff, med, Medicare, Payroll taxes, Social Security, Tax reform, Taxes | 1 Comment »
December 20, 2012
In the private sector, this would be be grounds for a perp-walk.
But, not in government world, I guess.
The headline: GM to Buy Back Stock From Treasury
The story:
General Motors (aka. Government Motors) announced that it will purchase 200 million shares of stock held by the U.S. Treasury Department.
The auto maker will pay $5.5 billion for the shares.
The repurchase price of $27.50 a share represents a 7.9% premium over the closing price on Dec. 18.
After the repurchase, the U.S. Treasury will continue to own approximately 300 million shares of GM common stock, or approximately 19% of the outstanding shares on a fully-diluted basis.
GM expects to take a charge of approximately $400 million in the fourth quarter, which will be treated as a special item.
OK, let work through the pieces …
Even at the inflated price, since the Feds bought i at the $33 IPO taxpayers will incur a trading loss of $5.50 per share … totaling to $1.1 billion.
GM’s largesse in premium pricing the deal “saved” taxpayers about $400 million.
Keep in mind, this is hardly an arm’s length transaction.
And, we the people still own 300 million shares … representing a paper loss of another $2 billion.
Gentlemen start your engines …
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Posted in Autos - Travel, Bailouts, Gov't Waste & Inefficiency | Leave a Comment »
December 19, 2012
I really don’t understand why Obama and Boehner are having such a hard time resolving the “revenue” issue, i.e. raising taxes.
Make no mistake, I’m opposed to raising taxes and then having Team Obama waste the money … both of which are eventually going to happen.
First, some background, courtesy of today’s WSJ:
The the budget talks are drifting in a drearily familiar Washington direction: Tax and spending increases now, in return for the promise of spending cuts and tax and entitlement reform later.
The tax increase now being touted as a sign of “compromise” … are still tax increases, in particular on small businesses that file individual returns.
The Fortune 500 CEOs who are lobbying Republicans don’t mind because they hope to get a cut in the corporate tax rate.
But small businesses will be stuck with a huge immediate tax increase, at least until their owners can scramble to reorganize as corporations instead of Subchapter S companies or LLCs.
OK, so how to break the log jam?
(more…)
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Posted in Tax reform, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 19, 2012
In early November, we posted:
Post-election: Government revenues will soar in Q4 … guaranteed.
The logic was simple: with higher tax rates on capital gains and dividends a virtual certainty, investors would sell appreciated securities (and companies) to lock-in the 15% tax rate … and, companies would accelerate 2013 dividend payouts into the 2012 tax year.
Sure enough.
See Told you so: “Tax induced selling” for some reports of stock & company sell-offs.
Now, I wonder: was it all a big con to generate some tax revenues?
What if tax rates on capital gains and dividends don’t go up?
(more…)
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December 19, 2012
Could it be the beginning of a new Christmas tradition.
According to AdAge, McDonald’s is “urging U.S. restaurant owners to take the unusual step of opening on Christmas Day to deliver the world’s biggest hamburger chain with the gift of higher December sales.”
The move is a break from the company’s tradition of closing on major holidays.
An internal company memo counseled franchisees: “Our largest holiday opportunity as a system is Christmas Day. Last year, (company-operated) restaurants that opened on Christmas averaged $5,500 in sales.”
Many McDonald’s restaurants were open on Thanksgiving this year.
A former franchisee said: “It’s easy to get kids to work on Thanksgiving because they want to get away from their family, but not on Christmas.”
Ray Kroc must be turning over in his grave.
He is dead, right?
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Posted in Chrustmas, Holidays, McDonald's, Restaurants | Leave a Comment »
December 18, 2012
According to CNBC, fiscal cliff talks moved forward in the past couple of days.
- Obama has been steadfast that income tax rates go up for millionaires & billionaires making more than $250,000.
- Boehner had been equally adamant that – as a matter of principle – no rates could go up.
- Over the weekend, Boehner reportedly said he’d agree to higher tax rates starting at the $1 million income level
- Obama reportedly countered by upping his threshold from $250,000 to $400,000
- Boehner immediately expressed indignation and rejected the counter-offer
Reminded me of an old W.C. Field’s routine …
Here’s the way the skit goes ..
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Posted in Fiscal cliff, Laughs, Politics, W.C. Fields | Leave a Comment »
December 18, 2012
We’re not talking Hobbit, we’re talking Pepper.
We’re talking a real unexpected journey.
First, some background for non-Georgetown folks.
Theodore Roosevelt Island is a “living memorial” to America’s 26th president, a great outdoorsman and conservationist.
The national park – located across the Potomac from Georgetown – has “miles of trails running through wooded uplands and swampy bottomlands”.
Mapquest says that it’s 3.61 miles from Roosevelt Island to the corner of 34th & O St.
Mapquest’s suggested route is depicted below – follow the windy road out of the park, head over the Key Bridge, turn right on M Street, then head up the side streets.
You probably get the picture.
It’s an easy trip by car, and a nice run on a Sunday morning.
More specifically, it’s a nice run for a well-conditioned guy or gal.
But, what about for a dog?
Here’s where the story gets interesting.
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Posted in Family & Friends, Human interest, Pets | 3 Comments »
December 18, 2012
In a prior post Effective problem-solving … the five key skills, we isolated 5 key problem solving skills.
Let’s drill down on #1 …
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(1) Identify core issues quickly
One of my observations was drawn for the Center for Creative Leadership which has found that : “Managers faced with a complex problem typically end up solving the wrong problem.”
How can that be? What explains the misses?
Based on my experiences, there are 4 at least 4 frequently encountered stumbling blocks that managers often encounter.
- Wandering in a foreign land: Often, managers just don’t have the perspective – drawn from experience or education or whatever – to fully understand the nuances of a problem or recognize the tell-tale patterns.
- Trees obscure the forest: The initial observation related to complex problems, which – by definition — come laden with extraneous or equivocal information that sometimes clouds the picture and causes cognitive solution.
- Unconscious biases take over: For example. how about cutting the Federal deficit? If you present the problem to a fiscal conservative, they’ll immediately start probing for spending cuts. If you ask a liberal, they’ll start figuring how to raise taxes. Same problem. Different perspectives drive by in-going biases.
- (Preference for simpler problems: In his book “Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow”, Adam Tversky argues that most mortals – when confronted by a hard, complicated problem exhibit a burning urge to to solve a simpler problem … one they’ve seen before, or one that seems simpler and more solvable.
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So, how to jump over these stumbling blocks?
Here are some suggestions …
- Start generic, then get specific: If you’re unfamiliar with a particular industry or situation, take it up a level of abstraction. That is, conceptualize it with relevant elements that are more familiar. Then, adjust to the specifics of the situation.
- Clear clutter, structure problem: Get down to the absolute essentials. Purge the problem of the distracters that aren’t germane or the factors that aren’t likely to influence the answer. Don’t be lured to information that may be interesting but not determining. Once the canvas is cleaner, patterns should be easier to discern.
- Stay focused and be objective: This hard because many biases are sub-conscious. Ask yourself if a person with a different slant would come to the same conclusion.
- Refrain: “What’s the question?” … Keep pushing yourself to test “is this the central problem … or, just a symptom?”
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Posted in Decision-making, HITS, Problem solving | Leave a Comment »
December 17, 2012
Since taxes will be a big topic this, thought we’d put things in perspective.
Americans pay a tad over $5 trillion in taxes to the Feds, States and Local Governments.
Technical note: In government parlance, the taxes are called “revenue”.
By taxing authority
Drilling down, the $5 trillion is split roughly 50%-30%-20% to the Feds, States and Locals, respectively
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How do the totals breakdown by type of tax?
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December 17, 2012
HITS: HomaFiles’ Ideas To Share
Earlier this year, I had the opportunity to kick-off the MSB Consulting Club’s pioneering extracurricular series on problem-solving.
My overall message was that there are 5 key problem-solving skills that consulting firms are looking for …
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Here are some of the Homa-isms that framed each of the skills (more…)
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December 14, 2012
OK, he really didn’t say the last part.
According to CNBC, Warren Buffett is one of several dozen wealthy people who have signed a statement calling for a “strong tax on large estates.”
Buffett & friends say:
- “Dynastic wealth, the enemy of a meritocracy, is on the rise. Equality of opportunity has been on the decline. A progressive and meaningful estate tax is needed to curb the movement of a democracy toward a plutocracy.”
- We (the wealthy) have “benefited significantly” by government investments in schools, infrastructure. and public safety, among other things, so it is “right morally and economically” to have a “significant” tax on large estates because it “promotes democracy by slowing the concentration of wealth and power.”
- “It is right to have a significant tax on large estates when they are passed on to the next generation … it is right morally and economically, since an estate tax promotes democracy by slowing the concentration of wealth and power.”
OK, so what constitutes a sizable estate and how much of it should the government take?
(more…)
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Posted in Buffett Rule, Buffett, Warren, Estate Taxes, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 13, 2012
In prior posts this week, we noted that – on a macro basis — there are 122 million adults in the US who are dependent on 121 million tax payers who work in private sector.
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A microcosm of the US picture is the city of Detroit
You know, Detroit as in ”about to file for bankruptcy”
Detroit as in “we voted you in, now bail us out”.
Detroit as in “unions are the way to middle class success”.
Consistent with the emerging national picture, it turns out that the 257,576 people in Detroit who do not have a job and are not looking for one outnumber the 224,846 residents who do have jobs.
Here are some other factoids courtesy of CNS …
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Posted in Employment - Jobs, Government Employees, Taxes, Unemployment, Unions - UAW | Leave a Comment »
December 12, 2012
In a prior post — Work harder: “Tax payer dependents” are counting on you. — we worked the nums to show that there are more tax payer dependent adults than there are private sector workers.
Specifically, there are about 121 million private sector works and about 122 million tax payer dependent adults — 89 million working age adults who aren’t looking for work, the 12 million unemployeds, and the 22 million government employees (yes, our tax dollars pay their wages, benefits, and over-stuffed pensions)
That’s a total of 122 million adults who are dependent on 121 million private sector workers.
Below are the totals over time.
Back in 2000, there were about 11% more private sector workers than tax payer dependent adults.
The lines crossed in mid-2009 … and now, there are about 1% more tax payer dependent adults than there are private sector workers.
So, we’ve got to raise taxes on the workers to support those who are dependent on them.
Ponder that when your alarm goes off tomorrow.
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Posted in Employment - Jobs, Government Employees, Taxes, Unemployment | 6 Comments »
December 11, 2012
Conventional wisdom: increasing proportion of old folks will be a drag on the consumer economy.
People in their 50s spend more than younger – or older folks … by a lot.
The economic implications are monumental.
Here’s the logic from Bill Gross at PIMCO:
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Posted in Consumption, Economy, Mktg - Consumer Behavior | Leave a Comment »
December 11, 2012
Here are some nums that should give you pause.
There are about 315 million people living legally in the US.
244 million — 77.5% of the 315 million – are working age … the rest are kids
155 million of the 244 million are officially counted “in the labor force” … that’s 63.8% – the labor force participation rate.
Of the 155 million, 143 million are employed; 12 million are unemployed … that’s 7.7% of the 155 million in the labor force
Of the 143 million who are employed, 22 million (15%) work for Fed, state and local government … 121 million work in the private sector
The 121 million private sector employees pay the taxes that support
- 89 million working age adults who aren’t looking for work
- 12 million unemployeds
- 22 million government employees (remember, our tax dollars pay their wages, benefits, and over-stuffed pensions)
That’s a total of 122 million adults who are dependent on the taxes paid by 121 million private sector workers.
Got that?
There are more tax payer dependent adults than there are private sector workers.
Think about it …
Coming: How the ratio of tax payer dependent adults to private sector workers has changed over time.
Stay tuned ….
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Posted in Employment - Jobs, Government Employees, Labor Force, Unemployment | 4 Comments »
December 11, 2012
In October, McDonald’s posted its first monthly drop in nine years.
The company immediately replaced the president of its U.S. business.
The new president “ramped up McDonald’s value messaging, focusing heavily on the Dollar Menu to help drive traffic”.
The company again renewed emphasis on low-priced menu options, such as $1 Sausage McMuffins and coffee.
The result?
McDonald’s sales sales bounced back in November.
Surprise, surprise, surprise…
Source
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Posted in Mktg - Pricing, Price points, Restaurants | Leave a Comment »
December 11, 2012
It isn’t exactly new news that more education makes you more employable.
For folks without a HS diploma:
- The current unemployment rate is 12%
- That’s down 4 percentage points from the 16% recession peak.
- But, it’s still 6 percentage points higher than the 6% low point back to 2000.
- And, 6% isn’t very low.
For folks with a college degree or higher:
- The current unemployment rate is 4%
- That’s down 1 percentage points from the 5% recession peak.
- But, it’s still 2 percentage points higher than the 2% low point back to 2000.
Hard to argue against the importance of education.
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Posted in Education - Academics, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | 1 Comment »
December 10, 2012
Even in 2010, when the national debt was “only” $13.7 billion
… the U.S. was the world’s #1 debtor in the sheer amount of debt
… and was approaching the top 10 as a % of GDP.
Source
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The debt continues to grow in $$$ and as a percent of GDP
Here are the nums:
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Posted in Debt - Deficit | Leave a Comment »
December 10, 2012
Several companies have announced that they’ll pay special dividends this year while investors are still be taxed “only” 15% on them.
My favorite had been Costco since co-founder and former CEO Jim Sinegal lambasted the rich at the Democratic National Convention, saying that they aren’t paying their fair share!
Shortly after, Costco then rushed to save its investors some taxes by announcing a special dividend to be paid before year end.
Glance at Yahoo Finance’s list of beneficiaries:
Yep, there’s the holier-than-thou Mr. Sinegal atop the leader board.
I guess he means other rich people should pay more.
Recognize the name coming in 5th at Costco?
Charles Munger is Warren Buffett’s sidekick.
Which provides a nice transition.
Following Costco’s lead, the Washington Post will pay its 2013 dividends before the end of this year to try to spare investors from anticipated tax increases.
Guess who’ll benefit from that tax avoidance move …
Yep, no other than Warren “You Should Pay More Taxes” Buffett.
You see, Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway is reported to be the WaPo’s largest shareholder with an estimated 1.7 million shares … and will get a dividend payment of roughly $17 million .
C’mon man, walk the talk … or shut-up !
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Posted in Buffett, Warren, Tax Loopholes, Taxes | 1 Comment »
December 9, 2012
Why the DC gridlock re: taxes & spending?
First, while Obama won a relatively slim majority of the countrywide macro vote … the GOP won a majority of the district-by-district micro vote.
In other words, the whole doesn’t equal the sum of the parts.
Further, as argued by Jay Cost in an Insightful Weekly Standard piece, people don’t really grasp the perilous financial situation the US is in … in part, because past economic growth rates have insulated folks from the hard choice of higher taxes or lower spending.
They’ve been able to have their cake … and eat it, too.
Here’s the essence of Cost’s argument:
(more…)
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Posted in Gov't Waste & Inefficiency, Gov't Spending, Tax burden, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
December 8, 2012
As loyal readers know, I’ve been trying to get my arms around this question.
In a prior post, we drilled down on taxes … or, as my Dem friends would say government “revenues”.
We posted that in 2012 Americans will pay a tad over $5 trillion in taxes to the Feds, States and Local Governments.
Drilling down, the $5 trillion is split roughly 50%-30%-20% to the Feds, States and Locals, respectively. Note that the Federal portion is just under $2.5 trillion.
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If these are “revenues” there must be matching services provided, right?
I found a study by the non-partisan Tax Foundation that analyzes taxes paid and benefits received.
The study is old – using 2004 data – but, in my opinion is a good starting point to calibrate the answer.
(more…)
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December 7, 2012
The “Establishment Survey” provided the “headline number” that 146,000 jobs were added … from 133,706,000 employed in Oct. to 133,852,000 Nov.
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And, the unemployment rate dropped from 7.9% to 7.7%.
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But, the population of working age adults increased by 191,000 – more than the number of added jobs … from 243,983,000 in Oct. to 244,174,000 in Nov.
That should increase the unemployment rate, right?
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More important, the “Household Survey” – the basis of the unemployment rate calculation — reported that 122,000 jobs were LOST… from 143,384,000 employed in Oct. to 143,262,000 Nov.
For sure, that should increase the unemployment rate, right?
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But the unemployment rate didn’t go up, it went down … because the civilian labor force CONTRACTED by 350,000 … from 155,641,000 in Oct. to 155,291,000 Nov.
That is, 350,000 people stopped looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed..
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Said differently, the labor force participation rate dropped … and is now about 2.2 percentage points lower than it was when Obama took office
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And, consumer confidence dipped, so don’t be surprised if even more people stop looking for jobs.
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Bottom line: Not your classic turnaround … but if enough people stop looking for jobs, we’ll have this unemployment mess fixed in no time.
Ouch !
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December 7, 2012
Hot off the presses …
The BLS reported that 146,000 jobs were added in November … below October … below the 12 month rolling average … and below the 200k that most economists say is what’s required to dent the unemployment rate …
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… But, magically, the unemployment rate dropped by 2-tenths of a percent to 7.7% … hmmm.
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Most interesting number: October’s government employment number was revised down by about 50,000
Hmmm.
Yesterday in our post Gotcha: About those rosy unemployment stats … we showed how the bump in government employment accounted for most of the decline in the unemployment rate running up to the election.
Seems that that number was a tad inflated.
Surprise, surprise, surprise.
Wouldn’t you think the government would know how many employees are on the payroll?
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December 7, 2012
Just a friendly reminder that the tax man cometh the when the ball drops on Times Square.
There are 2 big ones: elimination of the 2% payroll tax “holiday” … and the ObamaCare tax on “unearned income”
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Payroll Tax
For the past 2 years, payroll taxes – you know, the automatic deductions for Social Security and Medicare – were reduced by 2% to stimulate the economy.
The so-called “2% tax holiday” ends on December 31 and there are no apparent moves to renew it.
According to USA Today:
A temporary reduction in Social Security payroll taxes expires at the end of the year and hardly anyone in Washington is pushing to extend it. Obama hasn’t proposed an extension, and it probably wouldn’t get through Congress anyway, with lawmakers in both parties down on the idea.
Even Republicans who have sworn off tax increases have little appetite to prevent this one .
Bottom line: The expiration will cost a typical worker about $1,000 a year, and two-earner family with six-figure incomes as much as $4,500.
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ObamaCare Tax …
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December 6, 2012
First, glance at what’s been going on with government employment the past couple of months
… about 1 million employees were added to government payrolls from June 2012 until election day.
Hmmm.
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Now, take a gander at Gallup’s daily tracking of unemployment.
Note that Gallup’s unemployment rate dropped by about a point in the run-up to the election.
Virtually all of that drop is attributable to the bump in government employees.
Double hmmm.
And, Gallup’s unemployment rate is up about 3/4’s of a percentage point since the election.
Triple hmmm.
I thought that Team Obama had this economy turned around …
Oops.
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Question: Tell me again how higher tax rates will help a faltering economy?
Unless the BLS fudges the number tomorrow, the GOP may finally have an arrow in their fiscal cliff quiver.
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Posted in BLS, Economy, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | 1 Comment »
December 6, 2012
No secret that spending is out of control … exceeding tax revenues by 10 percentage points of GDP
Dems are saying “don’t touch Social Security, Medicare or any other entitlements”
Some folks are saying “Keep borrowing, rates are low”.
Here’s the predictable outcome … no budget left for ANYTHING except entitlements and interest on the debt … and, it can’t be solved by simply taxing the millionaires and billionaires who make more than $250,000..
Source: Mary Meeker KCPB
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Posted in Entitlements, Fiscal cliff, Taxes | 2 Comments »
December 6, 2012
Punch line: Many Western retailers have attempted to cash in on China’s 1.3 billion consumers, with limited success. Starbucks’s plan to localize the menu and experience might be the key to success.
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Excerpted from brandchannel.com’s, “Starbucks Incorporates Local Tastes with China Expansion”
Western retailers have been completely bombarding China with products and sales pitches in recent years.
Having more than 1.3 billion consumers living within its borders can make a country’s citizens targets of such things.
Starbucks is about to go overdrive in its efforts to get the Chinese populace as dependent on their brand as plenty of Americans are, but the sell may not be so coffee-driven, but leverage the brand’s tea drinks and food menu.
China is still a tea-drinking nation.
So Starbucks established a research-and-development unit in the country in order to figure out what it could do to attract a larger audience than those looking for a cup of joe.
Starbucks China is serving up localized beverage and food items including a red bean frappaccino, green tea tiramisu, a Hainan chicken and rice wrap, a shredded ginger pork panini, and a Thai-style prawn wrap.
Here are some other winners & losers in the Chinese market.
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December 5, 2012
Punch line: If public-sector employees just worked as many hours as their private counterparts, governments at all levels could save more than $100 billion in annual labor costs.
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According to a report in the WSJ …
New evidence from a comprehensive and objective data set confirms that the “underworked” government employee is more than a stereotype.
Based on the American Time Use Survey, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics administers to a large and representative sample of American households each year:
- During a typical workweek, private-sector employees work about 41.4 hours.
- Federal workers, by contrast, put in 38.7 hours
- State and local government employees work 38.1 hours.
In a calendar year, private-sector employees work the equivalent of 3.8 more 40-hour workweeks than federal employees and 4.7 more weeks than state and local government workers.
Put another way, private employees spend around an extra month working each year compared with public employees.
If the public sector worked that additional month, governments could theoretically save around $130 billion in annual labor costs without reducing services.
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Another reason that I hate to pay taxes …
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Posted in Government Employees, Taxes | 2 Comments »
December 5, 2012
One of the provisions of the Bush tax plan was to eliminate the so-called marriage penalty … the tax rules and rates that had a husband & wife pay more income taxes if they were married than if they stayed single.
I’ve been bemused that in all of the chatter about Obama’s obsession with jacking rates, I haven’t heard anything about the resurrection of the marriage penalty … at least for evil rich millionaire & billionaires who make more than $250,000..
Here’s the rub: Obama’s tax hikes apply to individuals earning more than $200,000 and families earning more than $250,000.
Let’s do a simple example:
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Posted in Fiscal cliff, Obama, Tax reform, Taxes | 1 Comment »
December 5, 2012
Answer: Nobody yet, but some Macy’s customers think that it would be a good idea
Facing a petition from consumers to ‘dump’ Donald Trump as a spokesperson, Macy’s claims that marketing and politics have nothing to do with each other, despite using some of Trump’s famous political comments as inspiration in the company’s new campaign.
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Excerpted from Adage’s, ‘”Macy’s Unmoved by Dump Trump Petition”
As a petition encouraging Macy’s to “Dump Donald Trump” continues to gain steam, with nearly 558,000 signatures, the retailer shows no sign of dropping the outspoken tycoon.
Here’s Macy’s thinking:
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