Archive for August, 2013
August 30, 2013
Remember Harry Truman’s desk sign that read “The Buck Stops Here”?
Well, it sprang to mind when I read a Washington Post article title: “U.S. Facing Test on Data to Back Action on Syria.

What’s that got to do with Harry Truman?
Here’s what caught my eye …
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Posted in Obama, Obama Administration, Syria | 1 Comment »
August 29, 2013
It has been a couple of years since I glanced at ASCI Customer Satisfaction numbers.
And, I was a bit surprised by the numbers …
During the 1990s, there was a pronounced drop in customer satisfaction … aggregated across all categories of products.
But since 1997, there has been a steady improvement … reaching new historic highs.

Source
Here are the details by product category …
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Posted in Autos - Travel, Customer Satisfaction - Loyalty, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
August 28, 2013
Recent polls have indicated that there is very low public support for military action against Syria.
Gallup says that 68% of Americans say the United States should not use military action in Syria to attempt to end the civil war there.

Gallup
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Ditto a Reuters/Ipsos poll that says “Americans strongly oppose U.S. intervention in Syria’s civil war and believe Washington should stay out of the conflict even if reports that Syria’s government used deadly chemicals to attack civilians are confirmed,”
More specifically, “about 60 percent of Americans surveyed said the United States should not intervene in Syria’s civil war, while just 9 percent thought military action should be taken.”
A historical context puts an interesting paint job on these numbers …
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Posted in Obama Administration, Polls & Surveys, Syria | 2 Comments »
August 26, 2013
Jacked from researchers at the Univ. of Toronto …
“Although intelligence as measured by IQ tests is important, so is the ability to think rationally about problems.
The surprise is that less intelligent people usually perform just as well as highly intelligent people on problems that test rationality.”
Below is a question to test if you’re a rational (i.e. logical) thinker … or just smart

Question
The XYZ virus causes a disease in one in every 1,000 people.
A test always correctly indicates if a person is infected.
The test has a false-positive rate of five per cent.
In other words, the test wrongly indicates that the XYZ virus is present in five per cent of the cases in which the person does not have the virus.
What is the probability that an individual testing positive actually has the XYZ virus?
Answer
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Posted in Brainteasers, IQ - IQ Scores, Logic - logical thinking, Ratioal thinking | Leave a Comment »
August 22, 2013
A real-world colleague of mine used to ask “Where do old marketing people go? I never see any around …”
Hmmm.
Now, Bloomberg has broken the code and I can answer my former colleague:
“They go into teaching … and stay there.”
Now, it’s getting real personal.

A survey commissioned by Fidelity (who the heck knows why) reported in the journal Inside Higher Ed found that “some 74 percent of professors aged 49-67 plan to delay retirement past age 65 or never retire at all.” Never retire at all?
Here’s what’s going on …
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Posted in Academics - Research, Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
August 21, 2013
Answer: Real valuable.
Perennial question for Ivy-aimed high-schoolers is “which is better an A in a regular course or B in an AP course?”
Admission officers always say “Take the AP course and get an A in it”.
Easier said than done sometimes.
Fast forward to college and b-school admissions.
If you want to get into a highly ranked b-school, Is it better to get average grades in hard courses at an academically challenging college …. or high grades in easier courses at an easier or grade-inflated school?

Here’s the answer …
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Posted in Academics - Research, Cognitive biases, Education - Academics | Leave a Comment »
August 20, 2013
Excerpted from the WSJ …
Casinos have developed detailed behavioral profiles of many of their customers, based in part on information gathered though loyalty-card programs that can track slot-machine play and other-gambling activity.
The casinos use this information to tailor marketing offerings, particularly to the small minority who make up the bulk of their revenue base.

It’s called predictive analytics, and casinos have been on the leading edge.
Here’s the rub …
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Posted in Casinos -gambling, Gambling, Predictive Analytics | Leave a Comment »
August 15, 2013
Consider this …
In March, Netflix shipped its 4 billionth DVD.
In the first quarter of 2013 alone, it streamed more than 4 billion hours.
The company estimates that 75 percent of viewer activity is driven by the company’s algorithmic recommendation.

Here’s some skinny on how Netflix works the numbers …
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Posted in Netflix, Predictive Analytics, Trax | Leave a Comment »
August 14, 2013
The Daily Mail reports that scientists have discovered that sleep deprivation increases cravings for junk food:
- Sleep deprivation impairs activity in the brain’s frontal lobe
- This is the part of the brain responsible for complex decision making
- Lack of sleep increases activity in the centers that respond to rewards
- This means sleep deprived people are more likely to choose junk food

Here’s the skinny on the study…
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Posted in Cognitive behavior, Health & Nutrition, Sleep - Sleep Disorders | Leave a Comment »
August 12, 2013
Couple of charts – and conflicting interpretations — caught my eye.
First, Wall Street Daily posted their version of an analysis revealing that over 3-in-4 jobs created in 2013 have been part-time jobs.
Their conclusion: “it’s the scariest chart ever”.
Maybe a bit of hyperbole, but certainly worth watching

Here’s another take on the trend …
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Part-time workers, Unemployment | 1 Comment »
August 12, 2013
That’s 41% according to Gallup which has been scoring Obama higher than most polls for the past couple of months.
A majority now disapprove of the job the President is doing.
The trend is down … despite the recent campaign-like swing, an appearance on Leno and, finally, a press conference.
Looks like the “phony scandals” line – which has garnered most of the attention – isn’t exactly catching on.

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RealClear Politics’ poll-of-polls now puts Obama at 43.6% approve, 51% disapprove … putting the President underwater by 7.4 percentage points.
Several polls put the President underwater by more than 10 percentage points … only CBS has his approval higher than his disapproval.
Here’s a recap of all the polls in the average …
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Posted in Obama, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
August 9, 2013
I think that practically everybody agrees that weight is a function of calorie intake …. offset by exercise and “normal” metabolic burn-off.
But, at our house at least, there has been an ongoing debate about whether calories consumed early in the day are more likely to be burned off than calories consumed later in the day.
You know, the “eat a big breakfast” thing … complemented with “late night calories turn to fat when you sleep”.

I skip breakfast most days, so I notice more articles saying “total calories are all that matter”
Technical note: It’s a known cognitive bias that people are selectively attentive to information that supports their existing points-of-view
Somehow, my eye caught an article with evidence to the contrary …
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Posted in Diet & nutrition, Food & Drink, Nutrition | Leave a Comment »
August 6, 2013
I used to be a big baseball fan, but my interest has waned.
So, I don’t really care whether A-Rod gets suspended or banned or whatever.
That said, a WSJ op-ed by Fay Vincent – a former MLB commissioner – caught my eye.

Vincent recounted that …
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Posted in Games, Philosophy, Rules, Sports & Athletics | Leave a Comment »
August 6, 2013
A recent Pew survey has captured a lot of headlines claiming that an increasing percentage and number of Millennials to move back with mom and dad due to the bad economy, rising college enrollments and declining marriage rates.

The headlines are technically true but, in my opinion, are very misleading.
Here’s why …
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Posted in Demograhics, Millennials, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
August 5, 2013
We’ve been frequently posting about the way employment is “down-mixing” from full-time to part-time jobs.
I personally think that the mix change is one of the most important trends in the economy.
Finally, the trend has become so significant that even the mass media has started reporting on it..
Last Friday … the BLS headline was “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 percent.”
High fives, right?
Not so fast.
Yep, total private employment went up 114.186 million … an increase of 162,000 jobs … that’s true.

And, though the job growth was below expectations and below the number usually cited as being required to keep the unemployment rate constant … the increasingly flakey unemployment rate dropped to 7.4%
That’s good news, too … right?
Not so fast.
Here’s the HomaFiles Employment Index … the way to cut to the chase on the employment numbers …
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, FTE - Full-time equivalent employees, Unemployment | 1 Comment »
August 2, 2013
Let’s end “hacked” week with one from the “you can’t make this stuff” file.
LifeLock is one of the companies that monitors the credit applications and credit worthiness inquires.
Todd Davis became LifeLock’s CEO when the company’s founder was ousted for making repeated misleading statements about his shady past and the company’s origins.
For a couple of years, Mr. Davis was prominent in LifeLock’s ads … revealing his social security number and daring identity thieves to crack his code.
Bad idea.

Reportedly, Mr. Davis has had his identity stolen at least 13 times since his taunt-the-thieves commercials.
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Posted in Credit Cards, Credit fraud, Fraud, Identity Fraud | 1 Comment »
August 1, 2013
Yesterday, I told the said story about how some bad guys tried to steal my identity and open up credit cards and car loans in my name.
Bottom line: An ordeal that burned up a bunch of my time and caused plenty of angst … but, no serious damage (that I know of).

Now, as a public service, here’s what I learned that may help you …
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Posted in Credit Cards, Credit fraud, Cybersecurity - cybercrime, Fraud | 4 Comments »