Did Trump “lie” and “cause” thousands of deaths?

October 7, 2020

That’s likely to be a major charge that Harris will be repeatedly lobbing at Pence in tonight’s debate.

For background, let’s reprise a past “must read” post that drilled down on Woodward’s “bombshell” book … which provided fodder for Harris-Biden’s campaign mantra.

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Bob Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people … and, that confusion and delay resulted in “thousands of unnecessary deaths”.

The Biden campaign quickly shifted gears from “Build Back Better” to “Trump lied, people died”.

Really?

Bottom line: Save for the dramatic impact of the audio tapes, Woodward’s “bombshell” is old news that has been debunked by the science (and scientists) … and the data.

Specifically, the NY Times ran an  article dated April 11 that detailed practically all of Woodwards’s “scoops” … and subsequently “the science ” — voiced by none other Dr. Anthony Fauci — and “the data” provided context, explanations and refutations.

image

Let’s start by flashing back to our April 13 post that analyzed the Times’ story…

Note: Trust me, the analysis is as relevant today as it was in April.  It’s long, but IMHO, well worth the reading time. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 1 Comment »

Which scientists to believe & to follow?

October 7, 2020

Over 6,000 public health scientists and medical practitioners have declared for Focused Protection.

Their full Declaration is a MUST READ… and, it’s only 1 page.

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Here are the key points being declared…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 4 Comments »

Oct. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 7, 2020

215,735 Deaths-to-Date

703 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 730    (peak 2.229 April 23)

39,013  New Cases
> 7-day average  42,529

 image

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Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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“COVID tests are almost laughably unreliable”

October 6, 2020

That’s the cut-to-the-chase observation of one pundit … and, the WH outbreak appears to support his conclusion.
==============

Loyal readers know that I’ve been harping from the get-go that the “testing, testing, testing” strategy was haphazard (wrong people being tested) … and potentially problematic (false negatives and false positives).

Well, the chickens have come home to roost … so, maybe the issue will start getting the attention it deserves.

This CNBC headline pretty much sums things up:

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Specifically, the White House has relied on a COVID screening strategy intended to bubble-wrap Trump from the virus.

Staffers, guests and reporters have all been required to be tested for the coronavirus with Abbott Laboratories’ ID Now test before entering White House grounds.

That test is a rapid molecular test that can produce results in as little as 15 minutes.

So, how did the “bubble” get breached?

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Covid-19 Testing | 1 Comment »

Oct. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 6, 2020

214,970Deaths-to-Date

351 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 742    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,566  New Cases
> 7-day average  42,002

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Oct. 5: Election Odds & Polls

October 5, 2020

Biden +23.6 in odds, +8.3 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 61.0   Trump 37.5   Lead 23.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 65  Trump 38   Lead 27 <= new high

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Prior Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.7  Trump 42.4   Lead 8.3
Undecided 6.9

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.2
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 81  Trump 18  Lead 63

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Oct.5: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 5, 2020

214,602  Deaths-to-Date

323 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 736    (peak 2.229 April 23)

31,645  New Cases
> 7-day average  41,788

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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CDC: 95% survivability rate if over 70 … higher with no symptoms, no co-morbidities.

October 2, 2020

Pres. Trump has tested COVID-positive… here are his medical odds.

================

Last week, the CDC updated its so-called Pandemic Planning Scenarios.

English translation: They revealed the key parameter settings for their “Current Best Estimate” of COVID outcomes.

image

Buried in the details (and minimally reported by the MSM) were IFRs — “infection fatality rates” … the odds of dying of you get COVID-infected.

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Here’s the key exhibit from the CDC report.

There are 3 sets of numbers presented: a best case, a worst case and a “best estimate” (where “best” might be more appropriately called “most likely”).

Below, we’ll decode the numbers.

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Let’s focus on the far right column — the “current best estimate” of the IFR — the  “infection fatality rate”.

image

The rates are very low … indicating that the likelihood of dying from COVID is very, very low … even if a person gets infected.

Let’s make those numbers a bit more understandable…

image

The 3rd column is the ISR — the “infection survivability rate” … the inverse of the IFR.

For example, if you’re in the 50 to 60 age group and you get infected, there’s  a 99.5% chance that you’ll survive … that you WON’T die.

Even in the most vulnerable age group (the over 70 crowd) the probability of surviving a COVID infection is over 95% … over 07% in the best case and over 91% in the worst case (see charts below).

The 4th column — the F-Odds — are read, for example, that the current best estimate is that 1 in 20 infectees who get infected succumb to the virus.

The grain of salt: COVID deaths are a reasonably accurate number .. but the number of infections is a wild guesstimate given the unknown number of asymptomatic infectees who don’t get tested.

==============

image

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19 | 2 Comments »

Flashback: Ohio Gov. DeWine tested negative … after testing positive.

October 2, 2020

Not a surprise according to Bayes’ Theorem
===========

According to the NYT and many other sources…

As part of a screening by the White House, Mr. DeWine first received an antigen test, a newer type of test that provides faster results but is less accurate than traditional laboratory testing.

He tested positive for Covid-19

He was later twice-tested using a more standard procedure known as polymerase chain reaction, or P.C.R., an accurate but time-intensive method that requires samples to be processed at a laboratory.

That test result was negative for the Covid-19.

DeWine’s experience is a classic “false positive” … to be expected based on Bayes’ (Statistical) Theorem.

image

Let me explain…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing | Leave a Comment »

If I test positive for COVID, am I infected?

October 2, 2020

The answer may surprise you, and it has big implications for test & trace.
=============

In a prior post, we reported that “Asymptomatics” are not rushing to get tested and provided some subjective reasons why that might be (e.g. no doctor referral, high hassle factor, privacy concerns).

OK, let’s up our game a notch or two and throw some math & economics at the problem.

==============

I’m a fan of “Freakonomics” … the popular call sign for a discipline called Behavioral Economics … the study of the rationality that underlies many seemingly irrational decisions that people sometimes make.

And, in my strategic business analytics course, I used to teach something called Bayesian Inference … a way to calculate probabilities by combining contextual information (called “base rates” or “priors”) with case-specific observations (think: testing or witnessing).

Today, we’ll connect Freakonomics and Bayesian Inference and apply them to the COVID testing situation…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Bayes - Bayesian Inference, Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, Statistics - Probabilities | Leave a Comment »

ANTIFA: I couldn’t believe my eyes…

October 1, 2020

Yesterday, I was browsing the web to debrief on the debate … and learn more about ANTIFA.

An article suggested that readers go to the web site antifa.com

So, I did:

image

The results were eye-popping…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Oct. 1: Election Odds & Polls

October 1, 2020

Big post-debate bump for Biden in betting odds
… stock market shrugged off debate.
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Biden +18.6 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 58.6   Trump 42   Lead 18.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 62  Trump 42   Lead 20

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.1  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.3
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 21  Lead 57

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Oct.1: C-19 Data Dashboard

October 1, 2020

211,688  Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 733    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,713  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,441

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Telemundo snap-polled their viewers …

September 30, 2020

… with surprising (albeit unscientific) results.

image

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

"I’ve done more in 47 months — than you’ve done in 47 years."

September 30, 2020

That’s my summary of last night’s bleep-show.
=============

The debate was a discouraging spectacle.

Geez, a New York bully against a malleable has-been politico.

Trump interrupted … Biden name-called and brayed like a jackass.

Out of 330 million, can’t we do better than this?

==============

Here’s my morning after mind-dump on what I saw last night…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign | 1 Comment »

Sept. 30: Election Odds & Polls

September 30, 2020

Headline: Big post-debate bump for Biden in overnight betting odds.
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Biden +18 in odds, +6.1 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 58   Trump 42   Lead 18 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 60  Trump 42  Lead 18

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.4  Trump 43.3   Lead 6.1
Undecided 7.3

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[1]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.1  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.3
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 21  Lead 57

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 30: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 30, 2020

210,624  Deaths-to-Date

816 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 740    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,323  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,777

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Here’s the key takeaway from the NY Times tax “bombshell”…

September 29, 2020

Trump’s low taxes were courtesy of an “unwitting gift” from Obama-Biden !
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It didn’t surprise me that Trump paid virtually no income taxes for the past decade.

But, I was surprised to read an under-hyped part of the story:

Starting in 2010 (Trump) claimed, and received, an income tax refund totaling $72.9 million — all the federal income tax he had paid for 2005 through 2008, plus interest.

(The $72.9 million refund) was “an unwitting gift from an unlikely source — Barack Obama.” Source

      image

Say, what?

Here’s the relevant part of the story…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, Income Taxes, Taxes, Trump, President Donald J. | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 29: Election Odds & Polls

September 29, 2020

Biden +10.6 in odds, +6.4 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 54.9   Trump 44.3   Lead 10.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.4
Undecided 7.4

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.6
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 22  Lead 56

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 29: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 29, 2020

209,777  Deaths-to-Date

324 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 758    (peak 2.229 April 23)

37,068  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,750

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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As Harry Reid would say: “The word is out that Trump paid no taxes.”

September 28, 2020

… under the Obama-Biden tax structure. that is.
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It’s deja vu all over…

Flashback to 2012: Sen. Harry Reid took to the well to shock the nation with the revelation that “the word is out” that Mitt Romney hadn’t paid taxes in 10 years.

click to view 1-minute video
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PolitiFact rated Reid’s allegation “Pants on Fire.”

Reid’s rejoinder:

“Well, they can call it whatever they want. Romney didn’t win, did he?” Source

Well, if it worked once, why not try it again?

Cue the NY Times:

image

Shocker, right?

Trump used the Obama-Biden tax code to his advantage.

The word is out…

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign | 1 Comment »

Why do the Dems need any time to vet Amy Coney Barrett?

September 28, 2020

They’re all going to vote “no” any way.
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I like that some Dems are now saying that they won’t meet privately with Judge Barrett … and some are saying that they won’t attend the hearings.

That makes complete sense to me … and should speed the process.

image

Barrett went through a full Senatorial vetting in 2017 when nominated for an Appeals Court position.

An updated FBI report will be done in short order.

By all accounts, she’s likely to be deemed “clean as a whistle”.

Barrett will still present as a white Catholic mother of 7 children — 2 of whom are adopted Haitians; 1 of whom is special needs.

Her rulings will still imply a strong Constitutional leaning … with no history of  “legislating from the bench”.

Most important, no Dems have expressed any inclination to vote yes on her confirmation vote.

Do any Dems want more vetting time so that they can be flipped to vote “yes”.

I’ll bet the under on that one.

Do they expect high school classmates to come out of the shadows and accuse her of being a sexual predator or chainsaw murderer?

Get serious…

Bottom line: I agree with the current betting line … the process will be done before the election.

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Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign, SCOTUS | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 28: Election Polls & Odds

September 28, 2020

Biden +9.4 in odds, +7.0 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 54.3   Trump 44.9   Lead 9.4 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.8  Trump 42.8   Lead 7.0
Undecided 7.4

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb[2]
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.8  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.7
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 78  Trump 22  Lead 56

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 28: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 28, 2020

209,453 Deaths-to-Date

276 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 762    (peak 2.229 April 23)

33,782  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,566

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Sept. 27: Election Odds & Polls

September 27, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.9 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.1   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2_thumb

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 578  Trump 46  Lead 11

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.9  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.9
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb_thumb
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 27: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 27, 2020

209,119 Deaths-to-Date

679 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 756    (peak 2.229 April 23)

38,894  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,492

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Uh-oh: Biden calls troops “stupid bastards”…

September 26, 2020

Not anonymous sources … on tape!
================

You probably remember the Atlantic article that quoted 4 anonymous sources claiming that Trump called soldiers “losers & suckers”.

29 named sources — including Trump nemesis John Bolton, who was in the room when the slurs are alleged to have been made —  refuted the accusations.

Nonetheless, Biden ran with the story.

In an emotional speech, he said the words made him as mad as he’s ever been …  that they trampled on the memory of  his late son Beau.

Subsequently, Biden has used the discredited Atlantic reporting in TV ads and in many of his speeches.

That may end.

Why?

A video has surfaced of Biden addressing a group of soldiers.

click to view 10 sec snippet … transcript below.
image

The verbatim:

Clap for that, you stupid bastards.

Come on, man.

Man, you all are a dull bunch.

Must be slow here, man.”

Biden’s faithful say he was just making a joke.

Doesn’t look like the soldier in the picture thought the joke was very funny.

Think Biden will use the “losers & suckers” line in Tuesday’s debate?

I’m betting the under on that one.

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P.S. I am betting the over on Twitter and Facebook banning the video as “disinformation”.

Posted in 2020 Presidential Campaign | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 26: Election Odds & Polls

September 26, 2020

Biden +7.7 in odds, +6.7 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image_thumb2

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.6  Trump 42.9   Lead 6.7
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb_thumb
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 26: C-19 Daily Dashboard

September 26, 2020

208,281 Deaths-to-Date

761 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 735    (peak 2.229 April 23)

48,807  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,012

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Remember when Biden “dominated” Ryan in VP debate?

September 25, 2020

Consensus is that Trump will roll a cognitively weakened Biden in next week’s debate.

Fearing the worst, Pelosi’s has advised Slow Joe to skip the debates, giving rise to fringe conjecture that Biden won’t post for the debate.

Wildest machination that I’ve heard is that Biden will claim to have tested positive for COVID right before the debate — getting him some shoulda-stayed-home sympathy and a doc’s note for his absence.  All followed by a DeWine-like negative test on Sept. 30.

My view: Biden will show up and, given expectations, Trump has lots of downside … and, Biden has lots of upside.

Flashback to the way Biden shredded Paul Ryan in 2012 …

click for 3-min excerpt
image

Ryan had the IQ edge by about 100 points and brought his clean-as-a-Scout persona.

So, how did Biden handle him?

Read the rest of this entry »

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The most incredible COVID statistic…

September 25, 2020

I’ve heard or read this stat several times:

29 large universities including Notre Dame, the University of North Carolina, and Illinois State had reported some 26,000 cases by Sept. 9 yet no hospitalizations.

I used to frequently remind my students that incredible means not credible … and, this stat certainly sounded incredible … so, I largely ignored it.

But, when the statistic was repeated in the WSJ, I decided that it was worth looking into.

Here’s what I found…

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Coronavirus - Covid 19, Covid-19 Testing, COVID-19 Tracking | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 25: Election Odds & Polls

September 25, 2020

Biden +8.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.6   Trump 45.6   Lead 8.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

image_thumb5_thumb_thumb
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.5  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 25: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 25, 2020

207,499 Deaths-to-Date

903 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 767       (peak 2.229 April 23)

44,000  New Cases
> 7-day average  40,187

 image

=============
Details below…

Read the rest of this entry »

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Something doesn’t square in the Louisville case …

September 24, 2020

OK, the cops knocked — even though they had a no knock warrant … and they announced themselves as cops when they entered the apartment. That’s confirmed by a witness.

The boyfriend admits to having fired the first shot, wounding one of the cops.

The 2 cops who entered the apartment returned fire … the wounded cop fired 6 shots … the other officer fired 10 shots … that’s 16 shots.

There are no reports that any of the 16 shots hit the boyfriend (who had fired at the cops).

But, 6 of the the 16 shots hit Ms. Taylor, though she was reported to still be in the bedroom when all of the shots were fired.

The FBI determined that the fatal shot came from one of the 2 cops who entered the apartment.

What am I missing?

First, how did all 16 cop-shots miss the boyfriend-shooter?

Second, how did 6 cop-shots hit Ms. Taylor if she was still in the bedroom?

===============

Maybe some of the cop-shots landed on the boyfriend but that isn’t being reported.

And, maybe Ms. Taylor was in the line of fire, proximate to her shooter-boyfriend … or, her bedroom was in the line of fire and hershooter-ducked to safety.

If the latter is true, it makes sense that Ms. Taylor got hit … especially in the “fog or war” in a darkened apartment.

Side question: Why do these raids have to be done in the middle of the night? That appears to increase the risk for both cops and suspects.

But, if she was still in the bedroom .. and the bedroom was a relatively safe harbor out of the line of fire, how did she get hit with 6 shots?

A 3rd officer — the cop charged with “wanton recklessness” — fired 10 shots from outside the apartment.

The FBI lab concluded that the fatal shot did not come from the 3rd officer.

Did any of the 3rd officer’s shots hit Ms. Taylor?  Or, did they all go into the neighbor’s apartment?

That strikes me as a pivotal question

============

My inclination is to support the police and the Grand Jury’s decision, but I just can’t get all of the pieces to square.

Again, what am I missing?

=================

P.S. Be sure to read the informative reader comment below.

Posted in Louisville | 1 Comment »

Sept. 24: Election Odds & Polls

September 24, 2020

Biden +7.0 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.3   Lead 7.0 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 50.0  Trump 42.9   Lead 7.1
Undecided 7.1

image_thumb5_thumb
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.9  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.4
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

Posted in 2020 Election - Odds & Polls | Leave a Comment »

Sept. 24: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 24, 2020

206,560 Deaths-to-Date

7,079 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 756       (peak 2.229 April 23)

41,062  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,826

 image

=============
Details below…

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Sept. 23: Election Odds & Polls

September 23, 2020

Biden +8.5 in odds, +6.6 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.8   Trump 45.3   Lead 8.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.7  Trump 43.1   Lead 6.6
Undecided 7.2

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 45.0  Lead 3.6
Undecided 6.4
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

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April 23: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 23, 2020

205,447 Deaths-to-Date

945 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 754    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,137  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,333

 image

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Details below…

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Biden demonstrates how NOT to wear a mask…

September 22, 2020

For the can’t-make-this-stuff-up file
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Remember a couple of months ago when the WHO, CDC, NIH (Fauci) and Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks?

At the time, among their arguments were that mask-wearing might give people a false sense of security — so they wouldn’t socially distance from others … that people would wear masks incorrectly — letting them slip down, breaching the protection … and that people would frequently touch their masks — transferring surface droplets to the “kill zone”.

I pooh-poohed that logic … until yesterday when I watched  Joe “National Mask Mandate” Biden give his speech in Manitowac, Wisconsin.

During the speech, Biden literally provided a demonstration on how not to wear a mask … and why their effectiveness may be overstated.

click to view the 30-minute speech
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Specifically …

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Sept. 22: Election Odds & Polls

September 22, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 68  Lagoa 33
Confirmed by Nov.3: 75 – 20  Predict It
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Presidential Summary
Biden +7.5 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.4   Trump 45.9   Lead 7.5 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

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Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 46  Lead 12

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.5  Trump 43.0   Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.5

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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

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Sept. 22: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 22, 2020

204,469 Deaths-to-Date

351 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 781    (peak 2.229 April 23)

35,781  New Cases
> 7-day average  42,446

 image

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Details below…

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The questions that I’d ask Bob Woodward…

September 21, 2020

… and any friends who say that Trump should have yelled “FIRE” back in January.
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Dana Perino interviewed Bob Woodward last week.

She was politely asking the right sort of questions … maybe, too politely … and not pointed enough.

IMHO, Woodward came off like a crotchety old man who wanted — above all — for Trump to get off his front lawn.

He kept harping on the the Jan. 28 NSA briefing that the coronavirus could be deadly and could be the most serious security threat to the U.S.

Good enough for Woodward, even if the scientists (think: Fauci) weren’t onboard and there was only 1 reported case in the U.S.

Paraphrasing slightly, when Perino pointed that and cited some of Trump’s accomplishments — including the Mideast peace accords — Woodward said, in effect, “I base my judgment of his incompetency on his response to the Jan. 28 NSA brief alone.”

click to view a 3-minute snippet of the interview
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OK, given Woodward’s sharp focus on the Jan. 28 NSA briefing, these are the specific questions I’d ask him…

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Sept. 21: Election Odds & Polls

September 21, 2020

SCOTUS ODDS: Barrett 55  Lagoa 41
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Presidential Summary
Biden +7.6 in odds, +6.5 in polls      

RCP – Betting Average  of 7 books’ odds
Biden 53.5   Trump 45.7   Lead 7.6 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58  Trump 45  Lead 13

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.4  Trump 42.9  Lead 6.5
Undecided 7.7
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.6  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.8
Undecided 6.6
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538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 22  Lead 55

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Sept. 21: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 21, 2020

204,118 Deaths-to-Date

294 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 800     (peak 2.229 April 23)

33,265  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,733

 image

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Details below…

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Sept. 20: Election Odds & Polls

September 20, 2020

Biden +7.2 in odds, +6.2 in polls             

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.3   Trump 46.1   Lead 7.2 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 59  Trump 45  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
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RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

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Sept. 20: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 20, 2020

203,824 Deaths-to-Date

657 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 815     (peak 2.229 April 23)

42,533  New Cases
> 7-day average  39,572

 image

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Details below…

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Sept. 19: Election Odds & Polls

September 19, 2020

Biden +6.7 in odds, +5.9 in polls

RCP – Betting Average  of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0   Trump 46.3   Lead +6.7 

Trump Best:   49.7  49.8   + .1   Sept. 2
Biden Best :   60.9  30.6  +24.3  July 23

image

Predict It   online betting site
Biden 58   Trump 44  Lead 14

Trump Best Aug 31:   53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 :   63 39 +24

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RCP – Poll of Polls – National
Biden 49.3  Trump 43.1  Lead 6.2
Undecided 7.6
**********************************
RCP – Poll of Polls – Battlegrounds
Biden 48.7  Trump 44.8  Lead 3.9
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning  Nate Silver
Biden 77  Trump 23  Lead 54

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The election just got messier!

September 19, 2020

To say the least, RBG’s death is disruptive
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Here are my takeaways from last night’s chatter:

1. Roes v. Wade is on the ballot again.

Politely stated, the make-up of the SCOTUS will surpass COVID and law & order as the most important issue.  That will rally the evangelicals (for Trump) and the pro-choice crowd (to Biden).

My hunch: The pro choice crowd is already in Biden’s camp.  Evangelicals will go from lukewarm on Trump to “hold your nose” when voting.

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2. Trump will certainly go forward with a quick nomination, probably pre-vetted Amy Coney Barrett.

For Trump, it’s  a manhood issue and it puts his legacy is at stake.

The Dems will “Kavanaugh” her for sure.  But doing so, will rally some suburban women back to Trump.

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3. Election voting issues will largely be determined by lower courts

Late & questionable mail-in ballots will be this election’s hanging chads that determine who wins.

It’s very unlikely that confirmation can happen before or soon after the election.

So, any issues that make it to the SCOTUS are likely to score a 4-4 tie … with CJ Roberts voting with the liberals.

That means that lower court decisions will stand.

Trump’s lower court-loading may work to his advantage

Venue shopping will key.  Expect the Dems to overload the liberal 9th circuit.

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4. Confirmation hangs with Collins & Romney

Romney hates Trump and vote against any nomination … even one that is completely consistent with his few moral principles.

Collins will likely lose her election because she cast the deciding vote for Kavanaugh.

Losing frees her to vote her conscience and gives her a chance to stick it to the Maine voters who rejected her.

Ironically, Trump may benefit from a Collins’ loss.

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This is going to be very interesting….

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Sept. 19: C-19 Data Dashboard

September 19, 2020

203,138 Deaths-to-Date

920 Daily New Deaths  (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 820     (peak 2.229 April 23)

49,530  New Cases
> 7-day average  38,3891

 image

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Details below…

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Remember when Trump advised us to use scarves during mask shortage?

September 18, 2020

Of course, he was eviscerated by the med-science community and the mainstream media
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Flashback to late March when community spread of the coronavirus was ramping up.

The WHO, the CDC and US Surgeon General were advising against wearing masks … saying that they were, at best minimally protective, could exasperate the problem if worn incorrectly and would distract people from handwashing and social distancing.

“The science” was unsettled.  Scientists were unsure how the virus was transmitted. There were published peer-reviewed studies on both sides of the issue.

That said, the  real reason for the science community’s advisories: masks were in short supply and the supply chain was impaired by Chinese hoarding and off-shored manufacturing.

In a Task Force press conference, Trump cut to the chase … said the real reason was the need to supply hospital workers with masks first … and he casually opined that, in the short-run, folks could stop-gap by using scarves or other face coverings as a make-shift protective shield.

click to view video (90 sec.)
image

Of course, Trump said it — and  he’s an MSM-certified idiot, so the media pounced:

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Of course, there’s more to the story…
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