Seriously, would you trade our healthcare system for Canada’s or England’s?

August 18, 2011

A recent “Investor’s Business Daily” article has been making the email circuit.

Provides statistics from a survey by the United Nations International Health Organization:

* * * * * *

Percentage of men and women who survived a cancer five years after diagnosis:

U.S. 65%  Canada 42% England 46%

* * * * *

Percentage of patients diagnosed with diabetes who received treatment within six months:

U.S. 93% Canada 43% England 15%

* * * * *

Percentage of seniors needing hip replacement who received it within six months:

U.S. 90%  Canada 43% England 15%

* * * * *

Percentage referred to a medical specialist who see one within one month:

U.S. 77% Canada 43% England 40%

* * * * *

Number of MRI scanners (a prime diagnostic tool) per million people:

U.S. 71 England 14 Canada 18

* * * * *

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Re: Buffett … WSJ jumps on the HomaFiles’ bus.

August 17, 2011

On Monday (and before in 2010), the HomaFiles said:

I am serious about eliminating the estate deduction for charitable gifts.

That would get Warren Buffett whining another tune.

You see, he’s reported to be bequeathing most of his estate to his buddy & fellow fat-cat Bill Gates’ foundation.

Let’s see, he ducks a lot of estate taxes, just by channeling money to his mega-rich buddy.

Sounds like a loophole to me.

Mr. Buffett: why not pay your fair share and then ship after-tax dollars to your friend, Bill.

Today (2 days after the latest HF post on the subject), the WSJ jumped on the bus: hopped on issue:

For billionaires like Mr. Buffett, the single most important deduction in the tax code is for charitable giving. Middle-class earners can’t give nearly as much money away to reduce their overall tax burden. Yet we don’t hear Mr. Buffett calling for the elimination of that deduction in the name of fairness.

Mr. Buffett has also already sheltered the bulk of his fortune from federal taxes by putting them into a foundation that will give the money away. That’s an act of generosity, but if the government’s purposes are so vital, why doesn’t he simply give the money to the IRS?

Rebecca Quick of CNBC put that question to Mr. Buffett in 2007. His answer: “Well, that’s a choice and it’s an option . . . If I had to give it to a single individual, or make some young Buffett a multibillionaire, or give it to the government, I’d absolutely give it to the government. I think that on balance the Gates Foundation, my daughter’s foundation, my two sons’ foundations will do a better job with lower administrative costs and better selection of beneficiaries than the government.”

Mr. Buffett is no doubt right about the relative efficiency of private donors, but should billionaire philanthropists get such a large tax preference? Another case of fairness?

Coincidence?

Or, is the WSJ peeking at the HomaFiles?

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Mid-week holidays, 3 day weekends … forget about it in Italy.

August 17, 2011

Feel a bit guilty reporting this from Myrtle Beach, but …

According to Reuters, one of the provisions in Italy’s debt-crisis-induced austerity program is …

A rule ensuring that non-religious public holidays, such as the June 2 anniversary of the founding of the Italian Republic, are celebrated on a Sunday to increase the number of working days in a year.

Geez, that means Italians will have to make do with their measly 6 weeks of paid vacation.

There’ll be flash mobs over this one, for sure.

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Source

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Obama’s tailwind … no, that’s not a typo

August 17, 2011

Punch line: The President can count on 90% of the African-American vote in 2012.  Regardless …

Add to that 100% of union members and he has a 20 point tailwind going into the election.

GOP beware.

Excerpted from The Daily Beast

The Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, hosted a discussion Monday on “The African American Vote in 2012 and Beyond.”

One of the questions before the panel was this: With persistently high unemployment and continuing economic woes within the black community, is there room for the right to make inroads?

The general consensus was  that Obama could be confident of the support of more than 90 percent of African Americans. 

African Americans won’t desert Obama

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Memo to Buffett: Here’s the way I’d like to see your coddling get stopped …

August 16, 2011

Warren Buffett is back at it … whining that his taxes are too low.

In a NY Times op-ed he says:

For those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains.

And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate.

My friends and I have been coddled long enough by a billionaire-friendly Congress. It’s time for our government to get serious about shared sacrifice.

Since Warren won’t just pony up extra dough to the Treasury (why not?), I suggest that:

  1. All personal wealth  (not income !) over $1 billion should be confiscated immediately.
  2. Tax-dodging charitable deductions from estates greater than, say, $5 million, should be eliminated.

No, I’m not serious about the first idea … though, it would be nice to clarify the distinction between income & wealth … and, it would be fun to see the fattest of the fat cats squirm.

I am serious about eliminating the estate deduction for charitable gifts.

That would get Warren whining another tune.

You see, he’s reported to be bequeathing most of his estate to his buddy & fellow fat-cat Bill Gates’ foundation. 

Let’s see, he ducks a lot of estate taxes, just by channeling money to his mega-rich buddy.

Sounds like a loophole to me.

Mr. Buffett: why not pay your fair share and then ship after-tax dollars to your friend, Bill.

Let’s really end the coddling …

>> Latest Posts

Five Guys winning formula: “Shut up, sit down, and eat.”

August 16, 2011

Business Week went “Behind Five Guys’ Beloved Burgers” … here’s some of what they found:

Five Guys’ that sells 2 million burgers a week and was named Zagat’s “best fast food burger” for 2010.

By the end of this year, Five Guys expects to have almost 1,000 stores open around the country, over $1 billion in sales and around 25,000 employees working in Five Guys stores.

Five Guys serves up made-to-order burgers with beef that’s never frozen and absurdly large servings of hand-cut fries.

  • Five Guys’ regular cheeseburger, comes with two patties and 840 gluttonous calories
  • Five Guys’ uses a special roll that’s sweeter and eggier than a typical bun.
  • French fries must be shaken fifteen times, no more, no less.
  • Onion and bacon go below hamburger patties, pickles and tomatoes go above.
  • They don’t serve milk because kids don’t actually like milk, and kids like Five Guys because it’s a treat.

The fresh, generous meals allow them to charge more than fast food chains such as McDonald’s and Burger King.

Five Guys stores seem to say, in the most loving way possible, “Shut up, sit down, and eat.”

A quirky aspect of their management style: frequent yelling during meetings. “It’s weird how it works … but You end up at the answer.”

* * * * *
Ken’s Take: Nothing like a stop at Five Guys before a Hoyas’ basketball game.  I knew I loved the place, now I know why  …

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Unleashing private capital to stabilize the housing market …

August 15, 2011

For a couple of years (literally), I’ve been blogging that the key to stabilizing the housing market is incentivizing private capital (i.e. investors) to buy up distressed properties and rent them.

Finally, I found somebody who’s thinking on the same track.

Daniel Indiviglio of the Atlantic agrees that “Investors Can Fix the Housing Market”.

He says to “Stop Trying to Prevent Foreclosures — Mortgage Modifications Aren’t Working” and to “Ignore Consumers — They Can’t Fix This Problem”

The first point is a gimme.

Regarding consumers inability to fix the problem, he argues:

Remember that home buying credit?

Yeah, it didn’t work out so well. Home sales rose for about a year, then they plummeted and prices began to fall again.

The problem is that consumers aren’t in any position to fix the problem, so you just pulled forward a little bit of future demand.

Most people who can qualify for and afford to own a home already have one at this point.

To clear out housing inventory, you’ll need to rely on people who have cash to spend. Most Americans don’t.

The essence of his answer: make real estate investment tax-free for the next couple of years.

I agree.

To refresh your memory, here’s my plan.

  1. Eliminate future capital gains taxes on any residential property bought in the next 2 years, and held for at least 3 years.
  2. Allow investors (i.e. landlords) who rent the properties to depreciate the properties on an aggressively accelerated basis (i.e. say, 5 years),
  3. Allow any excess tax losses from renting to be applied to ordinary income.

The likely outcome: a massive inflow of private capital to buy residential properties, housing prices would be bid up, folks would have access to affordable rentals, and the economy would be stimulated … REALLY stimulated.

>> Latest Posts

Flawed research … “retraction notices” surge

August 15, 2011

Punch line: An increasing number of published research studies – scientific & academic – are being “retracted” because the outcomes being reported can’t be replicated or are just plain fraudulent.

Geez.  If you can’t believe the journals …

* * * * *
From Thomson-Reuters & the WSJ …

Since 2001, while the number of papers published in research journals has risen 44%, the number retracted has leapt more than 15-fold.

Just 22 retraction notices appeared in 2001, but 139 in 2006 and 339 last year.

Through seven months of this year, there have been 210, according to a Thomson Reuters study of peer-reviewed journals world-wide.

 

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Barry drops below the Mendoza line … approval below 40%

August 14, 2011

Geex, what a way to start a vacation.

Just before leaving for his midwest bus trip and Cape Cod, the President gets some new survey results from Gallup: Only 39% approve of the job he’s doing as president.

In baseball, the Medoza line (i.e. the line between poor and bad performance)  is a batting average of .200.

I think it’s fair to say that 40% is the presidential approval equivalent.

Note: the score comes from left-leaning Gallup, not right-leaning Rasmussen.

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Source

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Proud to be a Marketer …

August 12, 2011

From Prof. Mark Perry’s blog

“Britain’s female beach volleyball champions are renting out their rears in an advertising deal that encourages spectators to photograph their behinds.

Zara Dampney, 24, and Shauna Mullin, 26, have turned their bottoms into their bottom line by wearing bikini briefs with a Quick Response (QR) code printed on the back where it will catch the eye of spectators.

When photographed on a smartphone, the code takes the user to a specific website – in this case, for bookmakers Betfair.”

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>> Latest Posts

My, oh my … How Jay Carney’s views on vacations have changed.

August 12, 2011

Great archival find by Drudge …

This week, Carney (Obama’s press secretary said: “No one begrudges the President some time off now.”

Back in 2001, Carney had a different view of Presidential vacations.

A Vacationing Bush Works Hard for His Photo-Ops
By Jay Carney Thursday, Aug. 16, 2001 

Back in July, when they were planning what the President should do during his month-long vacation (as part of their effort to persuade the public that he wasn’t actually on vacation in the generally accepted sense of what vacation means — i.e., having fun and not working), the image-makers hit upon a clever idea. 

Make it seem as though the President were engaged in some concentrated activity of presidential purpose, they would name the entire series of trips — together with his down time at his ranch in Crawford, Texas — the "Home to the Heartland" tour. 

Classic examples of that much maligned but ever-reliable staple of political activity: the "photo-op."

The President’s most glaring weakness is the public’s perception that he is pro-business.

Given the high marks he’s getting for his overall job performance , some might even say it’s his only weakness.

The question now is whether a few photo-ops will fix the problem — or just make it worse.

The Bigger Point: Drudge placed emphasis on the hypocrisy re: Presidential vacations.

I think the bigger point is that President Obama’s press secretary thinks that being pro-business is a weakness.

Oh, really.

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Apparently the Feds don’t read the HomaFiles …

August 12, 2011

A couple of years late, the WSJ reports that …

The Obama administration will announce plans to seek investors’ ideas for turning thousands of foreclosed properties owned by government-backed entities into rental homes, .

The move is intended to put a floor under declining home prices by creating a way to deal with hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures in coming years.

No kidding …

Loyal readers know that the HomaFiles has been all over this issue for a couple of years,  Original post

Ken’s Plan:

Some simple tax code changes can unleash private capital to suck up bargain priced residential real estate and induce investors rent it out.

Specifically, eliminate future capital gains taxes on any residential property bought in the next 2 years, allow investors (i.e. landlords) who rent the properties to depreciate the properties on an aggressively accelerated basis (i.e. say, 5 years), and allow any excess tax losses from renting to be applied to ordinary income.

The likely outcome: a massive inflow of private capital to buy residential properties, housing prices would be bid up, folks would have access to affordable rentals, and the economy would be stimulated … REALLY stimulated.

The downsides?

The higher prices would be somewhat artificial, unless the model becomes a new paradigm – replacing the American Dream of home ownership.

And for sure, the tax benefits would accrue to “fat cats”.

So what, let’s get the economy rolling …

>> Latest Posts

Four Ways CMOs Can Gain Power

August 11, 2011

A spreading sentiment these days is that marketing (and CMOs) are being marginalized ….  confined to tactical roles in communications and sales.

Here’s a take from MarketingProfs.com that suggests ways CMOs can elevate their (and their organization’s) clout.

 Marketing executives have an image problem, and it begins with the very definition of “CMO.”

CMO power is the ability to influence allocation of resources and other major strategic decisions within the top management team.

“We see CMOs get stuck in a pure communications role versus one that is at the heart of the business.”

Indeed, failure seems to infect the CMO suite, with the average tenure of chief marketing officers being less than two years.   

So, how does a CMO amass power”?

In his most recent study, Professor Mahajan (UT-Austin) identified four other ways CMOs can gain power:

1. Articulate a company vision in the face of industry instability.

When business is a roller-coaster ride, top management teams better appreciate the market and consumer perspectives of the CMO.

“Vision needs to be articulated.”

2. Lead innovation.

“The key to success, in many cases, is being able to position yourself as an agent of transformation.”

3. Personify the voice of marketing experience in the C-suite.

It’s hard for CMOs to feel the love when others on the executive team think they could do it better.

4. Take bottom-line responsibility for sales.

Marketing has generally been granted long-term accountability rather than responsibility for quarterly results.  Mahajan found that CMOs with bottom-line responsibility wielded more power than pure marketing or communications executives

Ken’s Take: Points 1 to 3 are blah, blah, blah. Focus on point number 4.  Without conspicuos bottom line attentiveness, marketing execs will invariability lack credibility and clout.  You have to be taking the heat if you want a seat at the kitchen table,

>> Latest Posts

scream. Scream! SCREAM !!!!

August 11, 2011

Earlier this week the HomaFiles said:

My family often recounts the stories of our family vacations being interrupted or cut short when a business crisis cropped up.

That was a price to be paid as a biz exec.

So, I shake my head in wonderment.

Might have expected that the President would call the Congress back from their August vacation for an emergency session to attack the debt-downgrade crisis.

Not so.

And, there doesn’t seem to be any public outrage.

Why?

I may scream later this month when Obama heads off for his annual Hyannis Port vacation.

Here’s the final straw:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama will vacation with his family in Martha’s Vineyard at the end of this month as he’s done in years past, the White House said Wednesday, despite the weak economy and negotiations on the nation’s debt problem.

Press secretary Jay Carney defended Obama’s plans to take a break even as he’s pledged urgent action on those issues.

“I don’t think Americans out there would begrudge that notion that the president would spend some time with his family,” Carney said.

For the record, I begrudge our Slacker-in-Chief taking time off during this financial crisis.

I repeat: when I was in business, I had many vacations (and holidays) interrupted, shortened or cancelled when crises (or time-sensitive opportunities) cropped up.

It was simply part of the job description and responsibilities.

And, suffice to say, none of the crises that cost me vacation days were were anything close to the magnitude of what Obama has created and is facing now.

So, as I promised, I’m SCREAMING !!!

And, I may scream again when I see …

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This would be no way to run a business … and, certainly, no way to run a country.

But, he wouldn’t know that I guess … since he’s never run anything.

Thanks to SMH for feeding the lead & the pic

>> Latest Posts

"Timmy, you’re doing a heckuva job"

August 10, 2011

During the Katrina fiasco, Bush gaffed by saying to the overwhelmed head of FEMA: “Brownie, you’re doing a heckuva job”

Over the weekend – after the U.S.’s first ever debt downgrade — President Obama asked Treasury Secretary to stay on until the election.

Is it just me, or was it Obama’s Brownie moment?

>> Latest Posts

Timmy shelves the sale of GM shares … for now, at least.

August 10, 2011

from the WSJ:

The Obama administration has put on hold plans to sell the rest of its stake in GM because the auto maker’s shares have slumped this year.

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The U.S. Treasury aimed to sell more of its 26.5% stake in GM by August or September.

GM stock would need to hit $53 a share for the U.S government to break even on its $50 billion bailout of the auto maker.

At $30 a share, the U.S. would lose more than $10 billion on its $50 billion bailout of GM.

So far this year, GM stock is down 31%.

On Tuesday, GM stock closed at $25.54, up 97 cents.

OUCH !

>> Latest Posts

Marketers reshape how college teams price & sell tickets …

August 10, 2011

Punch line: Colleges that are able to fill their football stadiums and basketball arenas are starting to price differentially – charging more for “hot” games.

But, the bulk of colleges are having trouble filling seats and are outsourcing ticket sales to aggressive outside organizations (think, “Boiler Room”)

* * * * *
Excerpted from USA Today

The “Haves” – Differentiated Pricing

Schools with overwhelming ticket demand are leveraging it as never before in an effort to boost revenue.

Notre Dame, for example, is varying football ticket prices by opponent for the first time this season. Games against Michigan State, Southern California and Boston College are $80; that’s $10 more than tickets for games against South Florida, Air Force and Navy.

The “Have Nots” – Outsourced Selling

“For years and years, if you put up enough billboards and sent out enough brochures, people would show up” at college games.

There not only was no need to be pushy in order to sell tickets to college games, there also was a fear of offending donors and deep-rooted fan bases by allowing non-profit colleges to have even the appearance of a chase-every-possible-dollar, professional sports business.

But, “colleges, for many years, were almost in an arms race for who could have the most seats — and they were able to fill those seats, for the most part. That has changed. … Most schools across the country have an issue with their football and/or their basketball seating demand vs. their seating capacity.”

Observers attribute this supply-demand imbalance to a combination of the tough economy, high gas prices and advances in high-definition television that have improved home viewing.

An empty seat leaves money on the table and  is a cancer to your brand.”

Hence, the rise in outsourcing

The number of schools outsourcing proactive, full-time ticket-selling operations to companies like Aspire, IMG, and Monumental S&E has recently skyrocketed.

The typical setup: 12 to 14 full-time staffers working on commission, each making 80 to 100 phone calls a day from a database of school-connected names.

“Get potential customers to talk about their love of the school. Seek referrals and new leads. Above all, make sales — and get psyched about making sales. Every time a staffer makes a sale, they ring a bell. Staffers who don’t ring the bell enough get fired.

  • Note: Georgetown uses Monumental Sports and Entertainment

>> Latest Posts

The “Tea Party” downgrade ? … au contraire.

August 9, 2011

Blame the messenger (S&P). Blame the catalyst )Tea Party). Accept no blame )O&G).  Stall.  Offer no plan.

That seems to be the game plan.

Rick Santelli of CNBC – whose rant started the Tea Party movement – has hit the nail on the head again:

In the end, in the end we need to address problems we know exist. A Treasury Secretary or a President should be out here not fighting S&P, not grabbing the other coach and slapping him around, taking the umpire behind the barn. He should be getting the team psyched to overcome.

See I remember I had a professor in college. I wrote a great paper. Could never please this guy. But it made me better.

Don’t get caught up in the minutia. All this BS.

We’re better than this. We need to prove it.

We’re off the track. Whether we’re better than some other country or not, the real issue is we’re on the wrong path.

Blame the Tea Party? Geez,

If it wasn’t for the Tea Party, they would have passed the debt ceiling thumbs up, we would have been rated BBB.

* * * * *
Best headlines so far:

  • BARACKALYPSE NOW
  • OBAMAGEDON

A must read:

>> Latest Posts

The ratings downgrade … and Pascal’s wager.

August 9, 2011

One of the few things I remember from Philosophy 101 is Pascal’s Wager.

In a nutshell, it says that God may or may not exist … and we all have the choice to live righteously or sinfully.

Naturally, that creates a 2 X 2 matrix …

image

What’s Pascal got to do with the debt downgrade?

Well, the President can choose to treat S&P’s downgrade as truth and start living a more righteous (debt-reduced) life … or, treat S&P as demonic frauds and keep living a sinful (free-spending) life.

Based on yesterday’s speech, the President is choosing the latter course.

Damn …

>> Latest Posts

Down 10 !

August 9, 2011

From the most recent CNN Poll ,,,

Obama’s approval rating has slid 10 points to 44%

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Only 1 in 3 approve of his handling of the economy … down 20 points from high water mark.

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Ken’s Take: Don’t you wonder who those 1 in 3 are?

>> Latest Posts

Debt downgraded … Congress leaves town … huh?

August 8, 2011

My family often recounts the stories of our family vacations being interrupted or cut short when a business crisis cropped up.

That was a price to be paid as a biz exec.

So, I shake my head in wonderment.

Might have expected that the President would call the Congress back from their August vacation for an emergency session to attack the debt-downgrade crisis.

Not so.

And, there doesn’t seem to be any public outrage.

Why?

I may scream later this month when Obama heads off for his annual Hyannis Port vacation.

>> Latest Posts

Re: “Uncertainty” … the Donkey in the living room.

August 8, 2011

I’m officially tired of the White House spinners.

Rather than admitting what everybody else already knows – that Obama wanted the debt deal to run until 2013 so it wouldn’t get raised again until the election – they continue to say that the debt ceiling had to be raised to reduce uncertainty for businesses … and extended  to  2013 to – you guessed it – reduce uncertainty and get businesses back to hiring.

The reality – based on my casual chats with biz execs – is that the only uncertainty that matters to them is whether Obama gets reelected or not.

If he does, then they’ll have certainty … certainty that ObamaCare and anti-business rhetoric and policies will be in place for an additional 4 years … dragging any hope of a real recovery out to 2016.

If he doesn’t get re-elected, hiring can start again in 2013.

But, nobody wants to talk about the donkey in the middle of the living room, for fear that they get the tanning salon treatment from the Administration.

>> Latest Posts

The rich get richer … and, oh yeah, so do the poor.

August 6, 2011

Punch line: President Obama has has oft-repeated that  “For many years, middle class Americans have been working harder, yet not enjoying their fair share of the fruits of a growing economy.”

Au contraire, mon ami.

But a new working paper titled “A “Second Opinion” on the Economic Health of the American Middle Class”  NBER and Cornell researchers provides new evidence that the growth in after-tax household income has been substantial for all economic strata.

Specifically, by taking into account previously unmeasured shifts in household size and the tax units in them, taxes paid, transfer payments received, and the increasing importance of fringe benefits, the researchers found that:

  • The growth in after-tax household income for the lower income strata was about 25% between 1979 and 2009.
  • The growth in after-tax household income for middle income strata was about 35% between 1979 and 2009.
  • The growth in after-tax household income for the highest income strata was about 50% between 1979 and 2009.

Bottom line: a slowly rising tide has lifted all boats … albeit at different rates.


Source: Prof Mark Perry

>> Latest Posts

How many Chevy Volts sold in July?

August 5, 2011

According to Electric Cars Reports …

Despite thousands of dollars of government rebates, GM’s Chevrolet Division sold just 125 Volts in July — the worst monthly total for the Volt since it was introduced last year.

Birth-to-date, GM has sold only 3,196 units …Haven’t heard much about the Volt lately – have you?

>> Latest Posts

Canada adding more jobs than the U.S. … eh?

August 5, 2011

Only 18,000 net new jobs were created in the U.S. in June.

To put it in perspective: Canada created more net new jobs last month (28,400) than the U.S. did — with nine times Canada’s population.

* * * * *
Drilling down …

  • For college graduates overall, the unemployment rate stands at 4.4%
  • The unemployment rate for recent college grads is 6.4% … compared to 3.5 percent four years ago. .
  • The unemployment rate for those with only a high school degree is 10%.
  • That rate more than triples — to 14.3%— for high school dropouts.
  • And teens, now competing more than usual with experienced and educated jobseekers, are experiencing 24.5% unemployment.

Source: The Hill

* * * * *

Ken’s Take: Maybe change, but not much hope.

What ever happened to the Administration’s “pivot to jobs”?

>> Latest Posts

Conservatives more open-minded than liberals … at least when it comes to dating

August 4, 2011

An interesting piece of irony …

According to Match.com insiders ….

… conservatives are more open-minded to dating someone outside their political circle than liberals.

This insight comes from an engineer at Match who works on their algorithm.

He notes that when they started focusing on how users actually behaved versus what they said they wanted, they found some unlikely results:

As a result, Match began “weighting” variables differently, according to how users behaved.

For example, if conservative users were actually looking at profiles of liberals, the algorithm would learn from that and recommend more liberal users to them.

Indeed, “the politics one is quite interesting. Conservatives are far more open to reaching out to someone with a different point of view than a liberal is.”

That is, when it comes to looking for love, conservatives are more open-minded than liberals.

Ken’s Take: Conservatives like to debate the issues … liberals are on the prowl for  reinforcement of their established views.

 

 

Agree?

>> Latest Posts

Bending the Medicare-Medicaid cost curves … upward (again)

August 4, 2011

Dems are adamant: “Don’t touch Medicare & Medicaid”.

And, they were equally adamant that ObamaCare would “bend the cost curve”.

Yep, the cost curve is bending …. unfortunately, in the wrong direction.

According to USA Today … Medicare, Medicaid tab keeps growing

Medicare and Medicaid spending rose 10% in the second quarter from a year earlier to a combined annual rate of almost $992 billion.

The two programs are on track to rise $90 billion in 2011 and crack the $1 trillion milestone for the first time.

The latest spending surge in federal health care is driven by more people getting more treatment, not by price increases.

Health care inflation is at its lowest level in more than a decade — a 1.7% annual rate.

Medicare and Medicaid paid a record 57.5% of patient bills for hospital, doctors, drugs and other care in the last quarter, up from 49.3% in 2005.

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Ken’s Take:

(1) Good news for Obama: edging closer to single-payer system

(2) No surprise, costs are rising not falling …. did anybody really believe the “bending the cost curve” riff?

(3) Debt deal says that if the super-committee fails to find cuts, doctors’ reimbursement rates will be cut … good luck to Medicare-Medicaid patients trying to find an MD.

>> Latest Posts

Remember the Feds stake in GM ?

August 3, 2011

Several post-debt deal articles have lumped it with the President’s other successes: ObamaCare, auto bailout …

According to the WSJ

“To break even, the U.S. Treasury would need to sell its remaining stake — about 500 million shares—at $53 apiece.”

Bad news: Stock closed on Aug. 2 at $27.05 … approximately 20% below the IPO price … about a $13 Billion loss.

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>> Latest Posts

Oh, those painful budget cuts …

August 3, 2011

IBD put the debt deal’s spending cuts in perspective

“In the short term, the reported  “deep,” “sharp,” “slashing” cuts will still leave the federal government spending roughly 4% more in 2012 than it did in 2010, and 20% more than it did in 2008.

The deal’s $2.4 trillion in 10-year cuts amounts to a mere 5% trim off total projected federal spending during that time.

It’s like a 400-pound man boasting that he plans to drop 20 pounds over a decade, while his doctors warn about the risks of losing weight so fast.

Even calling these “cuts” is a bit of a stretch, since spending will continue to increase, just at a slightly slower pace.”

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Ken’s Take: Back-loaded, illusory cuts … strictly funny money.

Only upside: wild spending may have reached America’s consciousness.

We’ll see.

>> Latest Posts

JetBlue’s all-you-can-fly promotion …

August 3, 2011

Punch line: To “hook” business folks traveling in & out of Boston. JetBlue is offering BluePass – a 3 month  all-you-can-fly promotional price.

From The Economist …

JetBlue selling “BluePass” allowing unlimited travel

JetBlue announced a promotion called “BluePass” that will allow travellers unlimited flights in a three-month span for one fixed price.

The three-month promotional period runs from August 22nd to November 22nd.

Travellers have three plans to choose from:

  1. Three months of unlimited travel between JetBlue’s Boston hub and any JetBlue city, all for $1,999.
  2. Three months of unlimited travel between JetBlue’s Boston hub and any of 13 selected JetBlue cities (non west of Chicago), this time for $1,499.
  3. Three months of unlimited travel between JetBlue’s Long Beach, California hub and any of nine selected JetBlue cities (non east of Chicago) for $1,299.

BluePass is targeted squarely at frequent business travellers, which seems likely given the pricing and the “Get Down to Business” promotional tagline

* * * * *

Right now, most airline pricing schemes are the kind that annoy travelers, not the kind that offer greater flexibility and customization.

It would be great if JetBlue’s offer starts to alter that dynamic. ZipCar, the popular American car-sharing firm, does a much better job than the airlines do of offering pricing plans to fit every need.

Ken’s Take: “All-you-can eat-plans” often push suppliers up against their capacity constraints and end up disappointing customers – think AOL’s unlimited monthly dial-up program.

At least JetBlue is time-limiting, and location-restricting the offer so they’re not stuck with it if it blows up on them.

Thanks to Tags for feeding the lead

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From trillions to billions … those vanishing spending cuts

August 2, 2011

Punch line: The $1 Trillion (with a T) in spending cuts in the debt deal includes $7 Billion (with a B) in 2012 and $3 Billion (with a B)  in 2013.

I guess the program catches steam in 2014.

Yeah, right.

Talk about back-loading … and illusion.

According to the AP

The first phase of cuts would reduce spending by $917 billion over 10 years. A congressional committee would decide on a second phase of cuts totaling $1.5 trillion.

The first phase of a deal to raise the government’s borrowing limit would pose little threat to the economy in the short term because almost none of the spending cuts would occur before 2014.

Discretionary spending, which excludes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, would be cut by only $7 billion in 2012 and $3 billion in 2013, according a summary by Senate Democrats.

That’s a tiny fraction of the nation’s $14 trillion economy.

“That’s certainly inconsequential for the economy.”

As Gomer Pyle would say: “Surprise, surprise, surprise”.

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1 in 5 American men not working …

August 2, 2011

According to Fortune

20% of American men are not working.

That’s right.

One out of five men in this country are collecting unemployment, in prison, on disability, operating in the underground economy, or getting by on the paychecks of wives or girlfriends or parents.

The equivalent number in 1970, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, was 7%.

And, things don’t seem to be getting any better.

Ouch.

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Boehner’s Powerpoint summary of the deal …

August 1, 2011

Here’s the link  (or click the slide)

Not a model of Powerpoint pitches, but gives the GOP-spun interpretation of the deal.

image

Ken’s Take: Deal is – in the final analysis – much to do about nothing.  Apparent spending cuts are trivial in context and probably just illusionary.

The “teeth” are – at best – Halloween wax teeth.

Will the gov’t restrict defense spending if security is challenged? Or, if Obama goes off on some more “kinetic activities”?  I doubt it.

They tried to get cute by making the Medicare cuts “reduced reimbursement rates to doctors and hospitals”.  With more and more doctors refusing to take patients with Medicare (think Mayo clinic), the move would promote a mass exodus of docs from the system. That one won’t happen either.

Biggest gain is that folks are finally focused on the Administration’s unfocused and unbridled spending spending.

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Great moments in marketing … or, not !

August 1, 2011

When marketing and politics collide …

* * * * *
tweet, Tweet, TWEET … please !

Widely reported:

On Friday, with time running out,  President Barack Obama urged Americans  to “tweet” their members of Congress to seek a compromise on a debt ceiling deal.

The President first begged for tweets in his primetime address to the nation last week.  I thought enough people ridiculed the plea that he’d shelve it.  Not so.

Maybe I’m old-school, but I think stirring up tweets is  un-presidential – and diminishes the office,

What next? The too cool President calling for a flash mob on the Capitol Hill steps?

* * * * *
Drill baby, drill

I’m a big fan of analytics and data-driven marketing, but …

The WSJ’s Peggy Noonan reported a hiring notice from the Obama 2012 campaign.:

The “Analytics Department” is looking for predictive Modeling/Data Mining specialists to join the campaign’s multi-disciplinary team of statisticians, which will use predictive modeling to anticipate the behavior of the electorate.

We will analyze millions of interactions a day, learning from terabytes of historical data, running thousands of experiments, to inform campaign strategy and critical decisions.

Noonan’s observation: It reads like politics as done by Martians.

* * * * *

My brand’s been hijacked !

Bumper sticker that’s popping up …. combines tweeting and brand image …  probably not sanctioned by the Obama campaign.

image

Click to order your’s

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What if the debt limit doesn’t get raised?

July 29, 2011

Amazingly, Sec. Geithner said last Sunday that there wasn’t a contingency plan in place – just in case the debt ceiling wasn’t raised.

That’s so unbelievable that I assume he was lying to avoid the politics of disclosing what would and would not be paid,

Good news for Geithner: the Bipartisan Policy Center & Bloomberg have put together an interactive planning tool so that he (and you) can use to prioritize claims … that is, who gets the $172.4 billion that will be coming in during August.

First, read through the excellent “Debt Limit Analysis” done by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Then take a shot with the “Interactive Debt Prioritizer”.

image

Finally, read the NYT’s summary Q&As re: the debt ceiling, default, etc.  I think it’s a pretty fair recap of the issues

Thanks to AS for feeding the lead

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What business would operate this way ???

July 28, 2011

I rarely agree with lib-pop-biz-observer Thomas Friedman, but he struck a chord in his op-ed  “Can’t We Do This Right?” by saying:

There is only one thing worse than Republicans and Democrats failing to agree to lift the debt ceiling, and that is lifting the debt ceiling without a well-thought-out plan and with hasty cuts totaling trillions of dollars over a decade.

What business do you know — that is still in business — that would operate this way: making massive long-term cuts, negotiated by exhausted executives, without any strategic plan?

It certainly wouldn’t be a business you’d expect to thrive.

First, the obvious: There are virtually no people with serious business experience sitting in on the negotiations.  And, the “CEO” has neither  business experience nor apparent business  instincts.

So, why would anybody expect the gov’t to run like a world-class business?

Following on to Friedman’s points, what well run business …

Operates with no budget? With no contingency Plan B’s?
(Note: Geithner said Sunday that there was no contingency plan … either there isn’t one or he’s a liar.  Either way, we lose.)

Creates 10 year financial plans with all the savings materializing in the out years? (Note: well-run businesses might look out 5 years in op planning – longer for capital planning – but will stack the savings in the “in” years to make sure they happen.)

The reality is that none of these Washington jabrones would cut muster as a corporate CEO – with hard metrics and accountability.

As a CEO buddy once told me : “Given his resume, I couldn’t get Obama approved to sit on my Board”.

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A breakthrough idea for generating more “revenue” …

July 28, 2011

First, a couple of tax facts …

  • Roughly 140 million individual  tax returns are filed each year … some, individual, some joint
  • Those returns report a bit over $8 trillion in AGI … about $5.3 trillion in taxable income
  • Those returns generate about $1 trillion in income tax “revenue” … that’s about 12.5% of AGI and about 19.5% of taxable income

The Federal deficit is about $!.6 trillion.

Let’s see how we can close that gap …

  • Option 1: Increase the average tax rate (on taxable income) by about 2.5 times … from 19.5% to about 45%
  • Option 2: Make every individual  filer pay an additional $1,000 – each joint filer $2,000
  • Option 3: Make everybody who voted for Obama (about 50 million people) pay an additional $3,000

I really like option 3 … since the vast majority of those folks like the job the President is doing, let them pay for it.

As long as they’re paying, I don’t care how much the President spends …

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America’s Got Talent … and the Debt Crisis

July 27, 2011

AGT has  passed CSI to become my favorite TV show – at least, for now.

Watching last night, I was struck by two ironic commonalities between AGT and the President’s speech on Monday night.

First, the headline act was a guy named Professor Splash who belly-flopped 36 feet into a kiddie pool filled with 12 inches of water.

Great metaphor for solving the debt crisis, right?

Second, the winners are, of course, decided by folks phoning and emailing to vote for their favorites.

After performances, acts would wave the number of fingers that corresponded to their act’s ID number.

If only, the President had waved and shouted “ … and press the number 1 if you want balance and compromise” when he implored people to call and write to members of Congress.

Agree?

* * * * *

P.S. Since you asked: My current favorite acts are Silhouettes – a choreographed group of kids that dance into amazing formations behind a screen to create artistic silhouettes …. and Prof. Splash – partly because I love the name.

I learned years ago that anybody can just start calling themselves “professor” and write a blog.

If this dude gets up to, say, 50 feet for his belly-dives, he deserves the $1 million.  And, if he dies trying, his widow should get the money …

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From the “No Choice but to Withhold Granny’s Check” file …

July 27, 2011

Courtesy of http://dirtyspendingsecrets.com/

Sure wouldn’t want to cut any of these fine programs.

  • Incredibly, Washington is spending $2.6 million training Chinese prostitutes to drink more responsibly on the job.
  • Congress recently gave Alaska Airlines $500,000  to paint a picture of a Chinook salmon on a Boeing 737
  • Federal employees cost taxpayers $146 million each year when they upgrade to business class flights. The Government Accountability Office found that more than half of these upgrades were not properly authorized.
  • The government has spent $3 billion to re-sand our nation’s beaches. Advocates claim this prevents erosion and keeps the beaches attractive to tourists. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the sand does nothing to prevent erosion—and this sand gets swept out to sea just as easily as existing sand!

Pick your favorite …

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What, you don’t have a master’s degree?

July 27, 2011

Punch line: “Colleges are turning out more graduates than the market can bear, and a master’s is essential for job seekers to stand out”

Excerpted from NYT “The Master’s as the New Bachelor’s

Browse professional job listings and it’s “bachelor’s required, master’s preferred.”

Call it credentials inflation.

Colleges are turning out more graduates than the market can bear, and a master’s is essential for job seekers to stand out

Once derided as the consolation prize for failing to finish a Ph.D. or just a way to kill time waiting out economic downturns, the master’s is now the fastest-growing degree.

The number awarded, about 657,000 in 2009, has more than doubled since the 1980s, and the rate of increase has quickened substantially in the last couple of years.

Nearly 2 in 25 people age 25 and over have a master’s, about the same proportion that had a bachelor’s or higher in 1960.

* * * * *

The degree of the moment is the professional science master’s, or P.S.M., combining job-specific training with business skills.

Many new master’s are in so-called STEM areas — science, technology, engineering and math …  recognizing that not everyone is ivory tower-bound and are drafting credentials for résumé boosting.

* * * * *

So what’s going on here?

Have jobs, “skilled up”?

Or perhaps all this amped-up degree-getting just represents job market “signaling” — the notion that degrees are less valuable for what you learn than for broadcasting your go-get-’em qualities. “Credentialing gone amok.”

“There is definitely some devaluing of the college degree going on. We are going deeper into the pool of high school graduates for college attendance” making a bachelor’s no longer an adequate screening measure of achievement for employers.

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Nums: U.S. Federal Spending & Deficits under Clinton, Bush & Obama

July 26, 2011

If you missed yesterday’s post “How’d we get into this fix?”, check it out now.

Apparently, Pres. Obama missed it.

How do I know?

Simple: his historical recollections in last night’s speech didn’t seem to match the numbers.

Somebody forwarded him the link, ok?

* * * * *

Following up on yesterday’s post, some HF readers asked for a summary table.

So, here it is …  click below for a PDF version

Conclusions stay the same as yesterday …

Bush overspent Cinton by about $1 Trillion annually and Obama makes him look like a tightwad.

Obama is spending $1 Trillion per year more than Bush and $2 Trillion per year more than Clinton.

Still, Obama wants taxpayers to bail him out.  Don’t constrain him with spending restraints …

What planet ?

click chart to enlarge or click below to download a PDF version

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click to download PDF

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“Intransigence” or “Consequences”

July 26, 2011

In Spring 2009, President Obama bluntly, repeatedly, and publically chided Congress and the American people that “elections have consequences”.

Then, bolstered by a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, he – with sidekicks Reid & Pelosi – rammed through ObamaCare with no GOP votes.  No compromise, except to sway Dem votes (think Cornhusker kick-back, Louisiana Purchase, Florida Medicare Advantage, union waivers, etc).

Yep, elections have consequences.

Last November, voters took the President’s words to heart and elected a majority GOP Congress – largely driven by angry tax payers who didn’t want to pay for Obama’s spending binge.

Now, the Congress refuses to jack up taxes … or, in Obama-speak, to increase revenues.

The President and Sen. Reid say the GOP Congress is being “intransigent”.

Hmmm.

I thought elections were supposed to have consequences …

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Internet addiction? … Up there with smoking and drinking.

July 26, 2011

Punch line: Online and digital technology is increasingly pervasive, influencing our friendships, the way we communicate, the fabric of our family life, our work lives, our buying habits and our dealings with organizations.’

People deprived of the internet feel ‘upset and lonely’ and find going offline as hard as quitting smoking or drinking.

* * * * *
Reported in the Daily Mail

Researchers at the University of Maryland persuaded hundreds of students at 12 colleges around the world to agree not to use any technological devices including television and radios for 24 hours.

The volunteers had to stay away from all emails, text messages, updates on Facebook and Twitter. All they could have access to was a landline phone and books. The students kept diaries of their feelings during their period of ‘information deprivation’.

The researchers reported the volunteers told of physiological and physical symptoms comparable to addicts trying to quit smoking or drugs.

These included feeling fidgety, anxious and isolated, and even reaching out for their mobile phone, which was no longer there.

Some of those taking part in the experiment – called Unplugged – said they felt like they were undergoing ‘cold turkey’ to break a hard drug habit, while others said it felt like going on a diet.

Ken’s Note: Felt guilty … found this article online, edited it online, and posted it for your edification … online, of course.

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How’d we get in this fix? … Here are the nums re: the Fed’s spending binges.

July 25, 2011

Obama’s stump riff is that we’re in this debt-deficit mess because of 2 unfunded wars, an unfunded prescription drug plan, and the unfunded Bush tax cuts.

Oh, really?

Let’s look at the nums … starting with Bush’s last year – 2008.

A couple of takeaways:

  • No surprise, the big 3 – defense,  Medicare and Social Security – are roughly equal in magnitude and account for about 70% of gov’t spending
  • Bush handed off to Obama a deficit of roughly $500 Billion and a $10 Trillion national debt.
  • IMPORTANT: ‘Baked in’ to those numbers are Obama’s talking points: the wars, the Rx plan, and the tax cuts … more on that later.

That’s the static view.

For context, let’s look at Bush’s spending (in his last year) versus Clinton’s spending in his last year (2000):

                                            click to enlarge

image

A couple of more takeways:

  • Bush increased spending over $1 Trillion (2000 to 2008)
    …OUCH!
  • Almost 1/3 of the increase was in defense spending … 2 wars will do that to you … especially when compared to Clinton’s skinnied down military (remember the “peace dividend” that Reagan handed Clinton?)
  • Over 1/4 of the increase was attributable to higher healthcare costs … a prescription drug plan and a touch of inflation will do that to you
  • Note: about $200 Billion of the increase is attributable to Welfare (think refundable tax credits) and Education (think NCLB)
  • Interesting (to me): The national debt grew by about $4.5 Trillion from 2000 to 2008 … to about $10 Trillion …  during the same period, tax receipts (“revenue” in Obama-speak) increased by about $500 Billion (according to the Tax Policy Center)
  • Conclusion: The increase in the debt / deficit during the Bush years was more than fully explained by the oversized spending … though marginal tax rates went down, tax receipts increased, offsetting some of the higher spending.

Now, keep in mind, that Obama inherited a national debt of about $10 Trillion and an annual deficit of under $500 Billion.

Also, keep in mind that the spending on the 2 wars and the Rx drug plan were baked into Bush’s final year’s numbers.

OK, now let’s look at the Obama years.

                                       click to enlarge

image

Well, well, well.

Total spending for the current year is projected to be almost $1 Trillion over spending in Bush’s last year … and, about $2 Trillion over Clinton’s last year.

Gawd, how can that be?

  • Again, keep in mind that the spending on the 2 wars and the Rx drug plan were baked into Bush’s final year’s numbers.
  • Still, defense spending increased by 28% (over 2008) … I guess doubling down on Afghanistan, initializing “kinetic activities” in Libya, and tripling the number of drone missile attacks will do that to you.
  • Healthcare is up over 25% … to be fair, there’s inflation in there, but there’s also the massive bureaucracy being built to run Obamacare…
  • Welfare is up over 25% in 2 years … think food stamps (and more food stamps)

So, there’s a roughly $5.5 Trillion projected increase in the national debt in Obama’s first 3 years …. or, $4.5 Trillion if you still believe that the Stimulus was a necessary and extraordinary budget item.

Double OUCH !

During the period 2008 to 2011, tax policy (i.e. rates, brackets and deductions) stayed essentially constant – remember that the Bush tax cuts were extended last December.

But, tax receipts went down from $2.524 Trillion in 2008 to $2.162 Trillion projected in 2011.  I guess a “making work pay” program, a  payroll tax holiday, and 9% unemployment will do that to you.

* * * * *

Bottom line: Readers know that I stay pretty close to this stuff.

Still, the numbers are mind-numbing … even to me.

Bush added a Trillion to the deficit over 8 years.  Obama did it in 3.

Bush added about $5 Trillion to the debt in 8 years.  Obama did it in 3.

Bush disappointed when it came to fiscal management.

But, Obama has literally spent us into a potential default.

He thinks the problem is accelerated depreciation on corporate jets and too little tax paid by the rich.

And, he doesn’t seem to understand – despite the Nov. elections –that tax  payers don’t want to pay for his spending binges.

I’m not very optimistic …

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The “Mother of All No Brainers” … say, what?

July 24, 2011

A real smart friend pointed me to a recent NYT Op-Ed by David Brooks titled The Mother of All No-Brainers … suggesting that it well summarized the destructive idiocy of the GOP for refusing to raise taxes in light of the debt crisis.

Oh, my …

Brooks general premise: “If the Republican Party were a normal party, it would take advantage of this amazing moment. It is being offered the deal of the century: trillions of dollars in spending cuts in exchange for a few hundred billion dollars of revenue increases.”

A couple of Brook’s arguments supporting the premise – with my take…

* * * * *

“The Democrats have agreed to tie budget cuts to the debt ceiling bill.”

Ken: For months, Obama demanded “a clean increase in the debt level” unencumered by spending cuts to narrow the deficit.

Even now, the Democrats have agreed to nothing.

A few floated leaks do not constitute an agreement … especially when Schumer & Pelosi run to the mics to say “over their dead bodies”

* * * * *

“Democrats have agreed not to raise tax rates.”

Ken: Au contraire.

First, there is the Dem obsession with pushing the upper brackets back “to the Clinton levels”.

An obsession as deep as the GOP’s obsession to just say no.

Second, it’s just semantics if you pare deductions (oops, I mean “loopholes”).

May be a good idea, but the point just isn’t true.

* * * * *

“Democrats have agreed to a roughly 3-to-1 rate of spending cuts to revenue increases.”

Ken: Again, Dems have agreed to nothing.  It’s vapor.

Further, the President’s last offer – according to him in his presser – was a 1 to 1 ratio.

* * * * *

“The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, has talked about supporting a debt reduction measure of $3 trillion or even $4 trillion.”

Ken: Agree: “talked about supporting”.

Let’s see walk not talk.

And, don’t forget: “A federal budget compromise that was hailed as historic for proposing to cut about $38 billion (with a B) would reduce federal spending by only $352 million (with an M) this fiscal year, less than 1 percent of the bill’s advertised amount, according to the Congressional Budget Office.”

Fool me once … then don’t expect me to trust you next time.

* * * * *

“There are some Democrats in the White House and elsewhere who would be willing to accept Medicare cuts if the Republicans would be willing to increase revenues.”

Ken: Yeah, and there are some Republicans who support jacking up taxes.

To be fair, Dems did partially fund ObamaCare with $500 billion in Medicare cuts, demonstrating a willingness to whack away at the program.

But, I haven’t seen any specifics re: what they’re willing to cut this time around.

* * * * *

“The members of this (no new taxes) movement do not accept the legitimacy of scholars and intellectual authorities.”

Ken:  English translation –  “We’re smarter than you and we know it because, well, we’re smarter than you”.

How do jabrones who have never worked in the private sector, who sit relaxed in protected jobs-for-life, or who – in some cases – haven’t taken a single course in economics or business — qualify as “intellectual authorities”?

Geez.

* * * * *

“The members of this (no new taxes) movement have no sense of moral decency. A nation makes a sacred pledge to pay the money back when it borrows money.”

Ken: Excuse me ?

Remember the auto bailout?

The Administration subordinated secured creditors beneath their unsecured union cronies, making a complete mockery of established bankruptcy laws … and, oh yeah, violating a sacred pledge.

And, the President “can’t guarantee” Social Security Insurance payments to be disbursed from a Social Security Trust Fund.

So much for sacred pledges.

* * * * *

“The members of this movement have no economic theory worthy of the name.”

Ken:   How did that Keynesian Stimulus work out for you?

I know “we averted a catastrophe” (or did we “dodge Armegedon” that time, I forget).

The Stimlus was costly for sure  —  adding a TRILLION dollars to the debt.

The results were equivocal, at best … over $250,000 per job saved or created based on the Administration’s flakey numbers.

Question: If the Administration’s economic theory is so “worthy”, why did Summers, Romer, Goolsbee, Bernstein, and Orzag jump (or get pushed) off the ship?

Hmmm.

* * * * *

“To members of this movement, tax levels are everything. They are willing to cut education and research to preserve tax expenditures.”

Ken:  OK, keep education – even though tens of billions of spending doesn’t seem to be getting us anywhere.

Question: Do we really need 82 federal programs to improve teacher quality?

And, keep research, except, maybe for studies like “$2.6 million studying why Chinese prostitutes don’t drink more responsibly on the job”.

But please, at least read the GAO report that uncovered billions of dollars in “wasteful spending by the U.S. government due to duplicate work done by dozens of overlapping agencies on redundant and ineffective federal programs”.

* * * * *

The GOP has separated itself from normal governance, the normal rules of evidence and the ancient habits of our nation.”

Ken: I especially like the part about “normal governance”.

I guess the new normal is vilification of all dissenters as evil and stupid, “gun-to-head” problem-solving to avert catastrophes —  real or imagined, closed door decision-making by a handful of smarter-than-you politicos, and “pass it to see what’s in it”.

Maybe we need a new new normal.

* * * * *

“Independent voters will conclude that Republicans are not fit to govern.”

Ken: As the President used to say “elections have consequences”.

Last November, they voted that the Dems were’t fit to govern and elected a GOP-majority Congress that pledged not to raise taxes.

Now, those Congressmen are being demonized for keeping their pledges and promises.

Go figure …

>> Latest Posts

The Obamacare effect on hiring …

July 22, 2011

Interesting analysis by the Heritage Foundation

While correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation, there are reasons to believe:

  • Companies under 5o people get waivers … so the cost of adding the 51st employee is very high
  • Bigger companies aren’t sure what plans will qualify and what the costs will be …. few believe the bull that healthcare costs will go down.

Draw your own conclusion.

image

>> Latest Posts

Geez, didn’t they see this coming?

July 22, 2011

Chart from the WSJ highlights the extent of the recent spending binge.

Bush pushed spending from 18% of GDP to 20% … ouch.

Obama has pushed it over 25% … OUCH!

His constituencies think it’s a great idea.

Taxpayers? Not quite so sure.

Rating agencies? Warning of downgrades.

Didn’t those jabrones see this coming?  Geez.
1downgrade
Source

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About voter IDs …

July 22, 2011

A friend asked me, “What are the pros and cons of voter ID cards … rather than create from whole cloth … and, since I couldn’t think of any cons, I searched.

The pros are obvious: stops voter fraud … citizens only, no substitute voters, no double dipping, no dead people,

The general argument against is that IDs may be discriminatory …  keeping minorities, people with disabilities, the elderly, the poor, the homeless and many other legals from voting.

Why?

  • Folks may not have the money to pay the processing fee for an ID.
  • Even if free, logistics may be complicated …. have to know where to go and have to have a way to get there.
  • If, say, mobile ID stations are sent around to neighborhoods, the costs would be too high

Suffice it to say that I don’t find the opposing arguments very compelling.

My view: If you need a photo ID to buy booze (or a gun),to  cash a check or to unload stuff at the local dump … it strikes me as reasonable that you should need one to vote.

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What’s the biggest tax break?

July 21, 2011

From the Tax Policy Center, reported in the WSJ:

Excluding employer-provided health insurance from workers’ incomes is the single biggest benefit in the tax code … one that reduced federal revenue by $160 billion last year.

By letting Americans subtract mortgage interest from their incomes, the government gave up nearly $79.2 billion in tax revenue last year.

Letting taxpayers deduct local property taxes on their federal income-tax return reduced federal revenue by $15.1 billion last year.

image

Ken’s Take  Believe it or not – even though I benefit from all of those tax-savers – I’m a fan of eliminating them – and the deductions for charitable contributions —  as long as the tax rates are reduced.

My logic: Why should an employee with company funded health insurance get a break over a  self-employed person who has to pay for their health insurance (in after tax dollars)?  Why should a home owner get benefits that a renter doesn’t ? Why shouldn’t a person donate to a charity because it’s a good thing to do, not because they get a tax deduction?

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Wynn Follow-up: Why private sector jobs won’t be coming back any time soon

July 21, 2011

Gotta use Steve Wynn’s “Obama the wet blanket” remarks to flashback.

For the record, Homa Files has been all  over this cause & effect for over 2years.

Here’s a reprise of the post: “Why private sector jobs won’t be coming back any time soon”

* * * * *

The dismal jobs picture isn’t really very mysterious: CEOs are dismayed by Team Obama’s economic, regulatory and pro-union policies and won’t do any serious hiring while Obama  is in power.

For the record, the Homa Files pitched this case almost 2 years ago in a post titled: “Why private sector jobs won’t be coming back any time soon … Hint: it’s called passive aggressive resistance” … the punch lines:

Given the Administration’s anti-corporate rhetoric, actions, and proposed game-changing rules, I doubt that many CEOs will be taking on added costs and risks to boost the administration.

More likely, they will let unemployment continue to creep along, and will slow roll the process of rehiring. 

Corporate chieftains will sit back and watch the President squirm and spin his “4 million jobs – saved or created”.  As Rev. Wright would say “the chickens will have come home to roost”.  Passively aggressive  resistance at its very best.

Unfortunately, that means we’ll be seeing high unemployment for some time – at least through the 2012 Presidential elections.

The full original post is worth another read !

* * * * *

Ken’s current take:

Certainly there won’t be any meaningful hiring until the 2012. elections are in the book.

CEO heels are dug in.  I’ve heard cocktail party chatter like “Each job added is a vote for Obama … Fool me once, shame on you … fool me twice, shame on me”

CEOs started to relent a bit when the Congress tilted GOP and Obama extended the Bush tax cuts.  (Whatever happened to Immelt’s job creation task force?)

But, recent moves – e.g. stopping Boeing’s move to South Carolina, stumping again for higher taxes, especially on off-shore profits – have more than offset any momentum.

We’ll be stuck with unemployment in the 9s until 2012 … or until there’s a substantial policy roll-back – e.g. repealing ObamaCare.

And, the latter just ain’t gonna happen …

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