Archive for June, 2013
June 30, 2013
I didn’t say it, the New Yorker magazine did, setting off a buzz in the halls of academia.
The theme of the New Yorker article –- titled “Truth Wears Off” –was that most (academic) research was flawed and not able to be replicated. This is, the results were at best true under some special circumstances at a specific point in time, but can’t be replicated. At worst, they’re just plain bull.
Hmmm.
Challenging the integrity of publication-driven academics?
Turns out that the New Yorker wasn’t the first mag on the beat.
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Posted in Academics - Research, Predictive Analytics, Scientific Method | Leave a Comment »
June 28, 2013
Earlier this week we posted Nums: Why’s the Fed so bad at forecasting?
We cited Nate Silver’s thesis that economists’ forecasts are generally poor for 4 main reasons:
- Complexity makes it hard to to pin down cause & effect.
- The economy is dynamic, especially subject to policy jolts
- Economic data is imprecise and subject to large revisions
- Forecasts often reflect political bias … pro and con.
On cue, the Feds released released their revision to Q1 GDP …
Based on revised data, the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the first quarter, well below previous estimate of 2.4% growth.
The biggest change was a cut in the government’s estimate of consumer spending which is more than 70% of the economy.
Consumer spending growth dropped to 2.6% from 3.4% growth.
Source: USA Today
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The revision — .6% – may initially sound like loose change, but it’s a 25% miss.
So, economic models that operating on the original (higher) estimate have a starting point that is off by 25%.
The error compounds over time.
It’s a version of what theorists call chaos theory … how a seemingly small variation at a starting point can compound into a major effect over time.
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Side note: And, in the “new normal” economy, the downward revision was good for the stock market since it puts pressure on the Fed to continue pumping money into the economy … the bulk of which is flowing straight to the stock market.
Go figure.
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Posted in Econometrics, Economics, Forecasting, Predictive Analytics | Leave a Comment »
June 27, 2013
We’re not talking NSA tracking, we’re talking ordinary old cyber-criminals intercepting messages, seizing account numbers and passwords, and taking remote control of cell phones.
According to Knowledge @ Wharton …
By 2015, more Americans are expected to access the Internet through a mobile device than a PC.
And, 45% of surveyed users do not see cybersecurity on their mobile devices as a threat in the same way as they see it on their computers.
The 55% couldn’t be more wrong.
Here’s why …
(more…)
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Posted in Cybersecurity - cybercrime, Mobile devices, Privacy | Leave a Comment »
June 25, 2013
According to a new study from the Mayo Clinic …
Nearly 70 percent of Americans are on at least one prescription drug – up from 44% in 2000 … and more than half take more than one prescription drug..
Here are some details from the study …
(more…)
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Posted in Prescription Drugs | Leave a Comment »
June 24, 2013
Wash Post had an interesting analysis this week titled “This graph shows how bad the Fed is at predicting the future
The crux of their argument: the Fed has a clear recent tendency to mis-forecast economic growth … not by a little, by a lot … forecasting almost twice as rapid growth as is ultimately realized.
For example, in 2009 the Fed was predicting 4.2 percent growth in 2011. But then in 2010 it revised that down to 3.85 percent growth. And in 2011 they revised it further to 2.8 percent growth. And when all was said and done, the economy only grew about 2.4 percent that year. The Fed projected growth almost twice as fast as what actually happened.
What’s going on?
(more…)
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Posted in Econometrics, Economic indicators, Economics, Predictive Analytics, Silver, Nate | Leave a Comment »
June 22, 2013
Everybody knows that Blackjack is a game of probabilities and that card-counting can get you kicked out of casinos – because it helps slightly with the odds.
Did you know that math and statistics can also improve your odds in Monopoly?
Business Insider posted a fun (and thorough) pitch re: how to win in Monopoly … a great practical (?) application of math and statistics.
Here are a couple of takeaways and a link to the entire pitch … worth browsing, even if you’re not a Monopoly aficionado.
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Tags:Monopoly
Posted in Math & Quant Skills, Predictive Analytics, Statistics - Probabilities | Leave a Comment »
June 21, 2013
According to the WSJ …
The FAA is going to relax rules for electronic “gadgets” used in flight … allowing them to be used at low altitudes … sometimes even during take-off and landing.
Unfortunately, the change won’t apply to cellphones which will still restricted to high altitudes use.
Here are some details …
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Posted in Airlines, Airplanes, FAA | Leave a Comment »
June 21, 2013
According to a new Gallup poll, not many people … less than 1 in 4
That’s down from 46% in 1993 … twenty years ago.
Old folks (30%) cut the most slack; college educated folks (15%) cut the least.
Not surprising, liberals (26%) trust TV news more than conservatives (18%)
All of which leads to a bigger question: if folks don’t trust government, corporations, media … what’s left?
Who to trust?
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Posted in Media, Media Bias, Media Demongraphis, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
June 20, 2013
According to USA Today …
The marriage rate is at its lowest point in more than a century, and the number of marriages across the USA fell more than 5% during the recession.
In 1980 there were about 10.5 marriages per 1,000 population.
That rate is down to about 6.5 per 1,000.
And, almost 1/3 of all people who married are remarrying … 2nd and 3rd timers.
What about shacking up?
(more…)
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Posted in Demograhics, Marriage - families | Leave a Comment »
June 20, 2013
According to Forbes …
In December 2010, Amazon invested $175 million into LivingSocial.
In the third quarter of 2012 Amazon reported loss of $274 million … blaming most of the loss on its investment in LivingSocial.
At that time, Amazon wrote down LivingSocial’s “goodwill” – or intangible value – to almost nothing.
Concurrently with Amazon’s “accounting adjustment”, LivingSocial announced it was laying off about 10% of its staff.
This week, LivingSocial confirmed that its Seattle office is now closing and that “the team that had been located there are still with LivingSocial and will be working remotely.”
The Seattle office closure follows in the wake of a $110M round of emergency funding at a “down valuation”.
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Flashback: Remember Groupon …
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Posted in Groupon - Living Social | Leave a Comment »
June 19, 2013
Stumbled on an interesting infographic compiled by the Statistics Dept. at NC State.
Included are 122 regionally-variant phrases or pronunciations.
My favorite: What’s your generic term for a sweetened, carbonated beverage?
Before glancing at the chart, what’s your answer?
Click here or the other 121 expressions and pronunciations.
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Tags:Is it oda or pop ?
Posted in Language - dialects | Leave a Comment »
June 19, 2013
If you do any banking online, you’ve probably gotten that message at one time or another.
Maybe it was when you got a new computer … or, when you used a friend’s computer to pay a bill.
You probably didn’t think much of it.
You just answered the security questions and paid your bill.
Bet you didn’t stop to wonder: How did Bank of Boise know that this wasn’t my usual computer.
Well, now that I’ve aroused you curiosity, the answer is ….
You’re computer has its own distinctive “device fingerprints” that make it identifiable on the Net as your computer.
I worry about stuff like this. So, I’d thought about this one.
And, my thinking was wrong.
Here’s what’s going on …
(more…)
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Posted in Device fingerprinting, Fingerprinting digital devices, Internet Tracking, NetTrax, Predictive Analytics, Privacy, Privacy issues | Leave a Comment »
June 18, 2013
The Washington Post reports that the First Family’s junket to Africa may cost taxpayers as much as $100 million.
And, that’s after scratching the safari from the itinerary.
I’m old school, so I still think that $100 million is a lot of money.
To put the amount in perspective, here’s what else $100 million could buy …
(more…)
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Posted in Laughs, Obama, Obama Administration, Sequester | Leave a Comment »
June 18, 2013
In a prior post Feds: “Hire ex-cons … we do” … say, what? … we reported that Feds are hiring ex-cons into the State Department … and pressuring private companies to hire them, too.
Sounds risky to me, but what if there was some objective way to cut the risk … to determine the likelihood that an ex-con would (or would not) go straight.
There is a way.
Some courts and parole departments are using predictive analytics to help decide who belongs in prison.
Here’s the scoop …
(more…)
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Posted in Gotcha, Predictive Analytics | Leave a Comment »
June 14, 2013
According to the latest FoxNews poll …
About 3 in 4 Americans think Congress should continue its investigations into the recent government scandals … slightly more for the IRS targeting, slightly fewer for the Benghazi cover-up.
The poll didn’t ask about the phone-internet surveillance flap.
Bottom line: Even if you discount the numbers because its Fox, it looks like some nerves were touched …
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Posted in Obama Scandals, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
June 14, 2013
Yesterday we posted about a company developing algorithms that comb through key factors including content of posts, and location, among others
….. to provide a very to develop a identify and “unify social profiles” for users who may be using different names or handles on each of their social networks.
The post elicited strong interest and 2 replies that I want to highlight.
The first is from Niv Singer, Chief Technology Officer at Tracx … the man, and the company referenced.
(more…)
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Posted in Internet - Soc Networking, Internet Tracking, Online privacy, Predictive Analytics | Leave a Comment »
June 13, 2013
President Obama’s approval rating has remained remarkably resilient in the face of the stream of scandals.
There has been a gradually downward trend in Gallup’s numbers.
The latest Gallup survey shows a sharp uptick in disapproval … likely a result of the phone-internet bruhaha.
For the first time since his reelection, Gallup reports Obama to be under water by a couple of points.
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Here are some more numbers …
(more…)
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Posted in Obama, Obama Scandals, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
June 13, 2013
Consumers are signing up to share personal data at an alarming rate via sleep monitors, pedometers and activity trackers, dietary logs, brainwave monitors, grocery and restaurant loyalty cards, credit cards, Foursquare and Facebook check-ins, photo geotagging, and other digital means.
As insurers, lenders, and others attempt to manage risk, they will inevitably turn alternative data sources to round out the picture of each consumer applicant –
Here are some ways that companies can (and are) using the data they collect on you.
(more…)
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Posted in Gotcha, Internet - Soc Networking, Internet Tracking, Privacy, Privacy issues | Leave a Comment »
June 13, 2013
And, it’s not for books … it’s for cloud computing services.
Say, what?
The WSJ reports that Amazon is vying against IBM for a $600 million contract to set up a cloud-computing system for the CIA.
Here are some highlights …
(more…)
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Tags:Anazon
Posted in CIA, Internet Tracking, Online privacy, SpyNet | Leave a Comment »
June 12, 2013
Been reading a book called Big Data, Big Analytics …
Given the flap over the Feds grabbing phone and Internet info, this caught my eye.
Book quotes a guy named Niv Singer, Chief Technology Officer at Tracx, a social media intelligence software provider.
Niv says:
“It can sometimes be a real challenge to unify social profiles for a single user who may be using different names or handles on each of their social networks …
… so we’ve built an algorithm that combs through key factors including content of posts, and location, among others, to provide a very robust identity unification.”
Singer explained that they are combining social check-in data from Facebook, Foursquare, and similar social sites and applications over maps to show information … down to the street level where conversations are happening
Source
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English translation: You can run, but you can’t hide …they’ll find you.
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Posted in Internet - General, Internet Tracking, NetTrax | Leave a Comment »
June 12, 2013
First, you lose Leno … then you lose Jon Stewart (or more precisely, Stewart’s temp replacement John Oliver) … not good.
Monday night, the Daily Show skewered Clapper and the Prism program.
The fish-in-a-barrel shot was DNI Clapper’s boldface lie to Congress.
The humor isn’t in the content, it’s in the way the dude delivers the lie … like he had taken drama lessons on acting guilty.
Wouldn’t you love to play poker with this fish?
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The best line, though, has to do with the sophisticated algorithms used to to ID somebody as a foreigner: if the nums say there’s a 51% likelihood, then it’s ok to listen in … that passes the NSA “foreigner test”.
As Oliver said: “51% … that’s flipping a coin“
Click to view the video … very funny
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Posted in Laughs, Phone surveillance | Leave a Comment »
June 12, 2013
Interesting article in the WSJ: “U.S. Relies on Spies for Hire to Sift Deluge of Intelligence”
The numbers that pop:
- Almost 5 million folks are walking around with security clearances
- Of those, almost 30% – 1.4 million — have top secret clearance
- Of those, over 1/3 are contractors, i.e. non-government personnel.
Man, I would have bet the under on all of those.
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Tags:Top security clearances
Posted in Government Employees | Leave a Comment »
June 11, 2013
According to Javelin Strategy & Research … 1 in 8 onliners post their pet’s name to social media sites, even though its a fairly common challenge question used to confirm identities.
More generally, Javelin warns that consumers’ social media and mobile behaviors may be putting them at greater risk.
in 2011, identity fraud increased by 13 percent … more than 11.6 million adults became a victim of identity fraud in the United States,
Javelin reports that “consumers are still sharing a significant amount of personal information frequently used to authenticate a consumer’s identity.”
Specifically,
- 68 percent of people with public social media profiles shared their birthday information (with 45 percent sharing month, date and year);
- 63 percent shared their high school name;
- 18 percent shared their phone number;
- 12 percent shared their pet’s name
All are prime examples of personal information a company would use to verify you
Source
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Posted in Internet - Soc Networking, Internet Tracking, NetTrax, Online privacy | Leave a Comment »
June 11, 2013
The Feds’ phone & internet surveillance programs that were revealed last week have raised the public’s consciousness re: Big Data.
Remember when Target created some Big Data buzz for analyzing purchase patterns to ID moms-to-be?
In a previous post, we excepted from a NY Times article How Companies Learn Your Secrets that
- Much of what people do is based on habits, not conscious reasoning.
- Consumers’ shopping habits and brand loyalties are often more habitual than thoughtful.
- But, there are certain “events” — e.g. new baby, new home, recent divorce — that seem to make consumers more open to switching stores and brands.
- Savvy marketers are learning to identify these critical events — before they happen — and try to get consumers to switch their behavior.
Target is one of the retailers identifying customers who are “vulnerable to intervention by marketers” … and pouncing on them.
Who? Moms-to-be.
How are they doing it?
(more…)
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Tags:moms-to-be, Target
Posted in Big data, Predictive Analytics | Leave a Comment »
June 10, 2013
Team Obama would still like us all to believe that it was just two rogue agents in Cincinnati were responsible for the IRS targeting of conservative groups.
Well, that defense seems to be working against them in the phone flap and internet snooping bruhaha.
Specifically, the President argues that his and the other branches of government provide adequate safeguards to preclude any abuse.
Well, what if tow rogue agents decide to go IRS on the security data?
Hmmm.
Peggy Noonan states the case more elegantly in her blog … here’s an excerpt …
(more…)
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Posted in Internet Tracking, Obama Scandals, Phone surveillance | Leave a Comment »
June 9, 2013
When you’ve lost Leno, well …
Great Leno monologue on the phone flap and IRS …. transcript is below or click to watch the video (recommended).
Favorite line: “if Obama wants to put this snooping thing to good use, how about spying on the IRS.”
Click to watch the video (recommended).
JAY LENO:
Well, let’s see what’s going on. Hey, Snoop is back in the news. Not Snoop Dogg, Snoop Obama. Yeah, Snoop Obama. A big change at the White House today. They closed the gift shop and opened a Verizon store. Yeah.
Well, this has become a huge controversy after it was revealed that the National Security Agency seized millions of Verizon phone records, and of course this has caused a panic among civil libertarians, constitutional scholars and cheating husbands everywhere. Oh my God.
How ironic is that? We wanted a president that listens to all Americans – now we have one. Yeah.
Actually, President Obama clarified the situation today. He said no one is listening to your phone calls. The president said it’s not what the program is all about. You know, like the IRS isn’t about targeting certain political groups. That’s not what it’s about!
I mean what’s going on? The White House has looked into our phone records, checking our computers, monitoring our e-mails. When did the government suddenly become our psycho ex-girlfriend? When did that happen? When did that happen? When did that happen?
You know, I’ll tell you, if Obama wants to put this snooping thing to good use, how about spying on the IRS next time they throw a $4 million party. Why don’t you do that one? Yes, exactly, exactly. Find out about that. Yeah.
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Tags:Leno
Posted in IRS, Laughs, Obama Scandals, Phone surveillance | Leave a Comment »
June 9, 2013
One of President Obama’s pushbacks on the phone monitoring flap is that folks shouldn’t worry because the government is just collecting “metadata”.
My first reaction was; “How many folks know what metadata is?”
My 2nd reaction was: “Does he have any idea what metadata is?”
For the record, Wiki says that the term metadata refers to “data about data”.
The term is ambiguous, as it is used for two fundamentally different concepts (types).
Structural metadata is about the design and specification of data structures and is more properly called “data about the containers of data”.
Descriptive metadata, on the other hand, is about individual instances of application data, the data content.
In this case, a useful description would be “data about data content” … “metacontent”.
That definition got me thinking: “Man, there’s a lot of info in phone metadata – calling number, called number, time, call duration, location”
Note: The President left out “location” in his remarks … hmmm.
Why might this “metadata” be troubling to folks?
Let’s work through a hypothetical …
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Tags:Metadata, phone call tracking
Posted in Internet Tracking, Metadata, Online privacy, Privacy, Privacy issues | Leave a Comment »
June 7, 2013
Yesterday it was revealed that the Feds are routinely gathering and mining “metadata” on all phone calls and trolling through emails and other Internet content.
Ostensibly they’re just on the look out for terrorists … that’s a good thing.
I think most folks would agree.
But many folks are in an uproar over the matter.
Why?
For starters, a lot of folks don’t trust the Feds much anymore.
According to Gallup, less than 1 in 5 Americans say that they trust the Federal government
… over 80% only trust the Federal government some of the time or never.
And, those numbers are before accounting for:
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Posted in Gotcha, Obama - Promises Made & Kept, Obama Administration, Obama Scandals | 5 Comments »
June 7, 2013
The BLS numbers get reported at 8:30 this morning.
I always reference Gallup as an indicator.
For May, Gallup’s seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate was 8.2% … up .4% from 7.8% in April.
My bet: weak jobs growth ( probably 125,000) … but BLS will find a way to keep the official unemployment rate constant at 7.5%
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 6, 2013
Interesting chart in today’s WSJ … I’ve added a few highlights.
Basic point raised in the article: The reported drop in the unemployment rate is masking a more fundamental weakness in the job market.
As we’ve harped before, the employment to population ratio is down about 5 pp from the pre-crisis long-term average … and despite a decline in the unemployment rate, the employment to population ratio has stayed flat over the past couple of years.
The culprits keeping the employment to population ratio low:
- bona fide unemployment – too few jobs
- demographics -old folks retiring
- social programs – extended unemployment
- faux disability enrollments
Our prior analyses allocate about 1/3 of the drop to demographics, about 1/2 to lack of jobs and the rest to social programs and disability bumps.
Note from the employment to population chart …
1) The 20 year pre-crisis trend …. hovered around 63%.
2) The steady increase during the 1980’s … you know, the Reagan years … more growth, fewer handouts.
3) The similarity in the levels during the Carter and Obama years … coincidence?
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 6, 2013
Business Insider reports that …
Bank of America economist Michelle Mayer has put out a note on one of the more controversial subjects in economics these days: the Labor Force Participation Rate.
The Unemployment Rate has been grinding down, but everyone has noticed that Labor Force Participation has dropped as well, and it’s been argued that the exodus of people from the workforce (who no longer count as unemployed when they’re not working) undermine the idea of workforce improvement.
BI – repping for Team O — takes delight observing that: “Mayer’s note comes down firmly on the side of saying that the decline in Labor Force Participation is largely secular, and not primarily about the economic malaise.
Hold your pants on, BI.
Here’s how & why Mayer’s analysis overstates the secular impact and understates the economic impact.
(more…)
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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Labor force participation rate (LFPR), Unemployment | Leave a Comment »
June 6, 2013
According to the most recent NBC/WSJ Survey …
Half of the people surveyed had a somewhat or very negative view of the IRS.
That means that about half didn’t have a negative view of the IRS despite the scandals.
Probably a coincidence that 47% don’t pay Federal income taxes …
More interesting point …
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June 5, 2013
According to the latest NBC/WSJ Survey …
49% of the people surveyed approved of the job that Obama is doing as President.
But, only 23% think that he’s very honest.
Drilling down …
Obama’s ‘top box’ honesty score has slipped 18 pp since his first days in office … from 41% to 23%.
In January 2009, his net ‘very’ score – very good minus very poor – was plus 33.
Now, his net ‘very’ score is underwater by 7 pp … 23% to 30%.
There’s still more …
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Posted in Honesty - Integrity, Obama, Obama Scandals, Polls & Surveys | 1 Comment »
June 5, 2013
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ 2012 Annual Report …
In nominal terms (i.e. ignoring inflation) aggregate household net worth at the end of 2012 was $66.1 trillion, nearly back to its precrisis peak of $67.4 trillion, reached at the end of the third quarter of 2007.
After falling to $51.4 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2009, the subsequent increase of $14.7 trillion through the end of last year.
In other words – nominal aggregate household net worth (the blue line) is almost back to where it was before the financial crisis … call it down 3% from the peak.
,
But … there’s way more to the story.
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Posted in Economy, Net Worth | 1 Comment »
June 4, 2013
Last week, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) – a right-leaning economic analysis group – released its 6th annual report on state economic performance.
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The 10 states that had the best economic performance over the decade 2000 to 2010 were …
Notice anything common across those states?
Here’s the code-breaker …
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Tags:ALEC, Laffer, Moore
Posted in Economic indicators, Economics, Economy, Taxes | Leave a Comment »
June 3, 2013
First, how many of us have a 16-character password?
If the over-under is 1, I’m betting the under.
Still, let’s pretend that that your passwords are 16-characters long – a mix of capital and lower case letters, numbers and special characters.
Here’s how long it takes to crack it …
(more…)
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Posted in Computer hints & tricks, Computers & PCs, Gotcha, Hacking - Hackers, Passwords | 1 Comment »
June 3, 2013
Last week, we raised a couple of points re: the IRS – Tea Party flap.
First, we pointed out that organizations don’t need to seek IRS approval to operate as a 501(c)4 … they can just do it.
Someday they might get the 501(c)4 status audited and revoked, but since Tea Parties spend the money that they raise on their activities, there shouldn’t be any income to tax.
And, donations to a 5042(c)4 are not tax deductible.
If there isn’t a tax advantage to either the organization or it’s donors, why did the conservative organizations go through thee agony of applying?
The answer is simple … and, not surprisingly, upended by the IRS targeting …
(more…)
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June 2, 2013
Sometimes, a picture really is worth a thousand words.
According to Weather.com …
The Weather Channel Tornado Hunt 2013 Team is safe, but shaken up after their chase vehicles took a direct hit by a violent tornado west of Oklahoma City on Friday night.
“Meteorologist Mike Bettes was chasing the monster rain-wrapped tornado near El Reno, Okla. when the storm picked up the heavy chase SUV and threw it an estimated 200 yards.”
Here’s the proof in the pudding.
Moral of the story: If you chase enough tornadoes, your butt is eventually going to end up in Oz.
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Tags:tornado chasers
Posted in Darwin | Leave a Comment »
June 1, 2013
According to this weeks Quinnipiac University National Poll, the President’s approval rating has dipped to 45% … putting him underwater against a 49% disapproval rating,
But, he’s holding strong with some constituencies …
(more…)
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Posted in Obama, Obama Administration, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »
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