198,520 Deaths-to-Date
392 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 759 (peak 2.229 April 23)
31,857 New Cases
> 7-day average 34,247
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Details below…
Archive for September, 2020
Sept. 14: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 14, 2020Sept. 13: Election Odds & Polls
September 13, 2020Biden +7.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0 Trump 46.0 Lead +670
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 60 Trump 43 Lead 17
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5 Trump 43.0 Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
Most recent poll: Sept. 8
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 75 Trump 25 Lead 50
Sept. 13: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 13, 2020198,118 Deaths-to-Date
698 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 757 (peak 2.229 April 23)
37,420 New Cases
> 7-day average 33,759
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Details below…
Sept. 12: Election Odds & Polls
September 12, 2020Biden +6.0 in odds, +7.5 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.6 Trump 46.6 Lead +6.0
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 59 Trump 43 Lead 16
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5 Trump 43.0 Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 75 Trump 25 Lead 50
Sept. 12: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 12, 2020197,395 Deaths-to-Date
1,068 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 766 (peak 2.229 April 23)
46,270 New Cases
> 7-day average 34,162
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Details below…
More: Fauci confirms “Trump was saying what we were telling him”
September 11, 2020MUST READ: This post was updated Sept.13 with a substantially expanded timeline of who said what, when they said it … and how Trump responded at the time.
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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his “bombshell” that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people.
Biden: “Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.
Trump: “Listening to the scientists, and didn’t want to prematurely cause a panic”.
How to settle the question?
Let’s start with what Dr. Anthony Fauci had to truth-tell on the matter:
By Fauci’s own admission, Trump was “following the science” … contemporaneously channeling what Fauci and other “scientists” were telling him at the time.
Let’s dig a little deeper on that and look hard at the timeline…
Sept. 11: Election Odds & Polls
September 11, 2020Biden +7 in odds, +7.5 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0 Trump 46.2 Lead +6.8
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 59 Trump 43 Lead 16
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.5 Trump 43.0 Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.5
**********************************
538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 75 Trump 25 Lead 50
Sept. 11: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 11, 2020196,193 Deaths-to-Date
945 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 738 (peak 2.229 April 23)
37,544 New Cases
> 7-day average 34,867
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Details below…
Fauci: “He was saying what we were telling him”
September 10, 2020Fauci diffuses Woodward’s “bombshell”
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Woodward certainly set the media’s collective hair on fire with his revelation that Trump “knew” that the coronavirus was more serious than he was telling the American people.
Biden: “Clear evidence of incompetence and dereliction of duty”.
Trump: “Listening to the scientists, and didn’t want to prematurely cause a panic”.
How to settle the question?
Here’s what Dr. Anthony “My Word is Gospel” Fauci had to say on the matter:
By Fauci’s own admission, Trump was “following the science” … channeling what he and other “scientists” were telling him at the time.
Let’s dig a little deeper on that and look at the timeline…
Sept. 10: Election Odds & Polls
September 10, 2020Biden +7 in odds, +7 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.0 Trump 46.3 Lead +6.7
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 59 Trump 43 Lead 16
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 50.4 Trump 42.9 Lead 7.5
Undecided 6.7
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 74 Trump 26 Lead 48
Sept. 10: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 10, 2020195,184 Deaths-to-Date
1,154 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 750 (peak 2.229 April 23)
34,234 New Cases
> 7-day average 35,972
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Details below…
How effective are vaccines?
September 9, 2020Answer: Not as much as you might expect.
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Excerpted from a September 2019 White House report which looked specifically at flu and coronavirus vaccines ….
There is considerable variation from year to year in how much the flu vaccine reduces the risk of contracting the seasonal flu and flu-related illnesses.
Over the past 14 years, influenza vaccine effectiveness has ranged between 10% and 60%.
Much of the variability depends on which viral strains predominate in a given year and, more specifically, whether the vaccine matches the viral strain that is circulating in a given flu season.
Although a mismatch between the vaccine and the virus circulating during a flu season reduces efficacy, vaccines still provide some protection against flu illness and decrease the severity of the illness, due to immunologic similarity between the viruses.
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When it comes to pandemic viruses …
Sept. 9: Election Odds & Polls
September 9, 2020Biden +5 in odds, +7 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.3 Trump 47.0 Lead +5.3 Up 1.3
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 58 Trump 45 Lead 13
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9 Trump 42.8 Lead 7.1
Undecided 8.0
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 74 Trump 26 Lead 48 Up 5
Sept. 9: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 9, 2020193,983 Deaths-to-Date
449 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 726 (peak 2.229 April 23)
27,077 New Cases
> 7-day average 36,704
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Details below…
Nate Silver trashes “prediction markets”…
September 8, 2020He was for them before he was against them.
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You’ve probably heard of Nate Silver … a self-identified prediction guru.
In 2012, he wrote a book called “The Signal & the Noise – why many predictions fail … but some don’t”.
In the book, Silver made references to prediction markets, e.g. the betting books and online sites such as Predict It.
One might expect these markets to improve predictions for the simple reason that they force people to put their money where their mouth is, and create an incentive for their forecasts to be accurate
I buy that logic, which is why I oft reference what the prediction markets are saying about this year’s election.
Noteworthy: the left-leaning Silver, changed his position on prediction markets when Trump closed the odds gap against Biden…
Sept. 8: Election Odds & Polls
September 8, 2020Biden +8 in odds, +7 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 53.8 Trump 45.7 Lead +8.1
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 59 Trump 44 Lead 15
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.9 Trump 42.8 Lead 7.3
Undecided 8.0
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 71 Trump 28 Lead 43
Sept. 8: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 8, 2020193,534 Deaths-to-Date
586 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 836 (peak 2.229 April 23)
25,325 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,874
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Details below…
Sept. 7: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 7, 2020193,206 Deaths-to-Date
389 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 856 (peak 2.229 April 23)
28306 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,379
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Details below…
Sept. 6: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 6, 2020192,817 Deaths-to-Date
706 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 861 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40,379 New Cases
> 7-day average 40,008
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Details below…
Sept. 5: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 5, 2020192,032 Deaths-to-Date
974 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 881 (peak 2.229 April 23)
51,204 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,905
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Details below…
More: What did Trump know, when did he know it?
September 4, 2020Most important: What did he do about it?
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In a prior post, we channeled an op-ed authored by members of a team that wrote a September 2019 White House report … and then we drilled down on the report’s details.
The report’s fundamental conclusions:
- Large-scale, immediate immunization is the most effective way to control the spread of pandemic viruses
- The current government-centric approach to vaccine research, development and deployment is far too slow.
- To provide adequate risk mitigation for pandemics, public-private partnerships are needed to speed up the development and deployment of vaccines.
So, how did the Trump respond to the report?
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According to the authors of the aforementioned WSJ op-ed …
“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.
Specifically, they report:
On Sept. 19, a few days after the CEA issued its report, the president signed Executive Order 13887.
The essence of the Executive Order:
It is the policy of the United States to modernize the domestic virus vaccine enterprise to be highly responsive, flexible, scalable, and more effective at preventing the spread of viruses.
This is a public health and national security priority, as viruses have the potential to significantly harm the United States and our interests, including through large-scale illness and death, disruption to military operations, and damage to the economy.
The EO created several initiatives to modernize vaccine production, including “incentives for the development and production of vaccines by private manufacturers and public-private partnerships.”
In other words, the September 2019 White House report and the EO that quickly followed laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed — perhaps, the most critical component of the coronavirus response, hastening the development and launch of therapeutic drugs and vaccines.
More specifically …
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Operation Warp Speed (OWS)
Directly from the HHS site:
Goal: Operation Warp Speed (OWS) aims to deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective vaccine for COVID-19 by January 2021.
Approach: To accelerate development while maintaining standards for safety and efficacy, OWS has been selecting the most promising development candidates and providing coordinated government support.
Rather than eliminating steps from traditional development timelines, steps will proceed simultaneously, such as starting manufacturing of the vaccine at industrial scale well before the demonstration of vaccine efficacy and safety as happens normally. This increases the financial risk, but not the product risk.
The federal government is making investments in the necessary manufacturing capacity at its own risk, giving firms confidence that they can invest aggressively in development and allowing faster distribution of an eventual vaccine.
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Bottom line: “Flattening the Curve” was intended to slow the spread of the virus to avoid blowing past hospital capacity while awaiting a virus-blasting vaccine.
Trump placed a big bet on Operation Warp Speed … and the clock is ticking.
Sept. 4: Election Odds & Polls
September 4, 2020Biden +2 in odds, +7 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 50.7 Trump 48.7 Lead +2.0
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 58 Trump 45 Lead 13
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
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RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6 Trump 42.4 Lead 7.2
Undecided 8.0
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538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 70 Trump 29 Lead 41
Sept. 4: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 4, 2020191,027 Deaths-to-Date
1,063 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 942 (peak 2.229 April 23)
43,877 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,384
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Details below…
Details: What did Trump know, when did he know it?
September 3, 2020More important: What was he advised to do?
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In a prior post, we channeled an op-ed authored by members of a team that wrote a September 2019 White House report
Based on the report and its follow-up, the authors assert:
“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.
Said differently:
The White House Was Prepared for a Pandemic: The September 2019 report laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed
Today, let’s drill down on the September 2019 White House report…
Sept. 3 Election Odds & Polls
September 3, 2020Even odds; Biden +7 in polls
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.8 Trump 49.5 Lead +.1
Trump Best: 49.7 49.8 + .1 Sept. 2
Biden Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3 July 23
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 58 Trump 45 Lead 13
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6 Trump 42.4 Lead 7.2Undecided 8.0
Note: All polls up to date
538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 74 Trump 28 Lead 40
Sept. 3: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 3, 2020189,935 Deaths-to-Date
1,061 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 915 (peak 2.229 April 23)
40,763 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,361
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Details below…
What did Trump know and when did he know it?
September 2, 2020Trump’s pandemic response triggered by a Sept. 2019 Report.
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During the DNC, Gov. Cuomo echoed the Dem talking point that the Trump administrations Covid-19 response has been “dysfunctional and incompetent” … that the federal government “couldn’t fight off the virus. In fact, Trump didn’t even see it coming.”
With that in mind, an op-ed in the WSJ a week ago caught my eye:
The authors were on the team that wrote a September 2019 White House report that (1) calibrated the likelihood of a pandemic (2) identified rapid vaccine development as the key to an effective response, and (3) recommended policies and actions to speed vaccine development.
Based on the report and its follow-up, the authors assert:
“The administration was well aware of the threat of a pandemic before the novel coronavirus emerged … and there was “immediate presidential action” to implement the reports recommendations.
Specifically, they report:
On Sept. 19, a few days after the CEA issued its report, the president signed Executive Order 13887.
The essence of the Executive Order:
It is the policy of the United States to modernize the domestic virus vaccine enterprise to be highly responsive, flexible, scalable, and more effective at preventing the spread of viruses.
This is a public health and national security priority, as viruses have the potential to significantly harm the United States and our interests, including through large-scale illness and death, disruption to military operations, and damage to the economy.
The EO created several initiatives to modernize vaccine production, including “incentives for the development and production of vaccines by private manufacturers and public-private partnerships.”
In other words, the September 2019 White House report and the EO that quickly followed laid the groundwork for Operation Warp Speed — perhaps, the most critical component of the coronavirus response, hastening the development and launch of therapeutic drugs and vaccines.
=============
Coming: A drill down on the Dec. 2019 White House Report
Sept. 2: Election Odds & Polls
September 2, 2020Trump takes lead in RCP Betting Average
RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 49.7 Trump 49.8 Lead +.1
Yesterday: 50.9 48.6 +2.3
Biden July Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3
Pre-conventions: 55.6 43.3 +12.3
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 57 Trump 46 Lead 11
Trump Best Aug 31: 53 48 +7
Biden Best July 23 : 63 39 +24
Pre-conventions: 60 43 +17
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6 Trump 43.4 Lead 6.2 Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25
538 – Chance of Winning Nate Silver
Biden 70 Trump 30 Lead 40
Sept. 2: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 2, 2020188,900 Deaths-to-Date
1,164 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 935 (peak 2.229 April 23)
41,979 New Cases
> 7-day average 39,319
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Details below…
Nums: A historical perspective on race relations in the U.S….
September 1, 2020
Sept. 1 : Election Odds & Polls
September 1, 2020RCP – Betting Average of 6 books’ odds
Biden 52.0 Trump 49.0 Gap +3.0
Yesterday: 50.6 48.7 +1.9
Biden July Best : 60.9 30.6 +24.3
Pre-conventions: 55.6 43.3 +12.3
PredictIt online betting site
Biden 57 Trump 46 Gap 11
Yesterday: 53 48 +7
Biden July Best : 63 39 +24
Pre-conventions: 60 43 +17
RCP – Poll of Polls
Biden 49.6 Trump 43.4 Gap 6.2 Undecided 7.0
Note: Only 2 of 7 polls since Aug.25
538 – Chance of Winning
Biden 61 Trump 39 Gap 22
Sept. 1: C-19 Data Dashboard
September 1, 2020187,215 Deaths-to-Date
455 Daily New Deaths (peak 2,824 April 21)
> 7-day average 938 (peak 2.229 April 23)
35,860 New Cases
> 7-day average 38,891
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Details below…
The Homa Files 