President Obama’s approval rating has remained remarkably resilient in the face of the stream of scandals.
There has been a gradually downward trend in Gallup’s numbers.
The latest Gallup survey shows a sharp uptick in disapproval … likely a result of the phone-internet bruhaha.
For the first time since his reelection, Gallup reports Obama to be under water by a couple of points.
=====
Here are some more numbers …
According to the most recent NBC/WSJ Survey …
Half of the people surveyed had a somewhat or very negative view of the IRS.
That means that about half didn’t have a negative view of the IRS despite the scandals.
Probably a coincidence that 47% don’t pay Federal income taxes …
More interesting point …
According to the latest NBC/WSJ Survey …
49% of the people surveyed approved of the job that Obama is doing as President.
But, only 23% think that he’s very honest.
Drilling down …
Obama’s ‘top box’ honesty score has slipped 18 pp since his first days in office … from 41% to 23%.
In January 2009, his net ‘very’ score – very good minus very poor – was plus 33.
Now, his net ‘very’ score is underwater by 7 pp … 23% to 30%.
There’s still more …
The media’s spin has been that the tri-scandals haven’t impacted President Obama’s job approval ratings.
Oops.
The RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls now has the President below the Mendoza line at 48.1% approval …
,,, and, with 48.4% disapproving, Obama is now underwater.
Source: RCP
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Thanks to social media, today’s teens are the first to have a complete record of their whole lives — their thoughts, their actions, and their friends.
Eric Schmidt — Google chairman and ex-CEO — worries, however, that they’ll be the first who’ll never be allowed to forget their mistakes.
Schmidt says: “People are now sharing too much.”
More specifically, privacy pundits say that it just takes your name, zip code and birth date to ID you and start linking your online and offline personal data … forever.
Now, Pew has published a research study re: teen’s online habits .
Here are the Pew results …
The term “Teflon president” is being re-calibrated.
Here’s a head-scratcher:
Despite the Benghazi, IRS and AP scandals, CNN reports that Obama’s job approval ratings have bumped up.
That’s despite the parallel findings that respondents think the 3 scandals are important, that they are indeed scandals, and that they think that the GOP-led Congress is handling the matter correctly.
Here are some details …
Interesting results from the Weekly Economist-YouGov Survey …
Headline: Obama gets a 47% approval rating (below 50%) and a 47% disapproval rating … dead heat.
But … looking at the “top & bottom boxes – strongly approve, strongly disapprove – he underwater by 16 percentage points.
Numbers get more interesting diving into the details:
By region … no surprise that Obama does best in the Northeast – about even on top & bottom boxes …. he does worst in the South – no surprise – and the West (a mix of West Coast liberals and and gun toting open-country folks).
Things get way more interesting by age and income …
For the record: I love kids (especially my grandkids), I lived in the city adjacent to Newtown for 7 years, and I’m definitely not a gun hawk – I’ve never owned one, never shot one and don’t plan to do either.
I think most people are reading this week’s gun control vote all wrong.
First, it’s repeatedly reported that 80% to 90% of Americans support background checks.
That’s probably true, but a practical overstatement because “while about 80 percent of those Americans think that background checks sound like a reasonable idea, they don’t really care much … only 4 percent of Americans consider guns to be the “most important” issue facing the country.” NRO
Second, I think that President Obama had it right a couple of weeks ago when he pitched: “People say they don’t trust the government. But, we are the government.”
Yep, he has it right … people don’t trust government.
At least the Federal government.
Here’s some evidence …
A recent Pew survey shows that trust in government took a major hit during the Johns0n-Nixon-Ford-Carter years … and has been cycling around the 30% mark since … currently, a little over 20% of the population trusts the government.
Think about that for a moment …
Even assuming that – at an extreme – no Republicans trust the current administration … it means that less than half of all Democrats trust the administration.
Hmmm.
Here are some more interesting nums …
According to Pew Research …
Overall, 33% of Americans say they do their own taxes while 56% say someone else prepares their taxes.
A majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes 1 in 4 say they hate doing them.
Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes:
About a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes.
Here are some details re: the “likers” and lovers …
According to a poll conducted by the CNN – not exactly the Conservative News Network” …
1) President Obama’s approval rating has gone underwater – 47% approve to 50% disapprove.
Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
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2) 54% disagree with the President on the issues that matter the most to them.
Q3. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with Barack Obama on the issues that matter most to you.
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According to the latest RealClearPolitics poll=of-polls …
President Obama’s 48.2% approval rating is still 1.9 percentage points above his disapproval rating (46.3%).
But, the 48.2% is less than a majority … and down 4.6 percentage points from Obama’s post-election high.
Time to redouble the charm offensive …
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According to a McClatchy-Marist poll, President Obama’s approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in more than a year … putting him underwater 45% to 48%
The pollsters opine that “At least some of the president’s fall to Earth lies in the fact that voters no longer see him in the context of an election. He has to stand alone in the eyes of voters.”
That is, it’s not a matter of better or worse than Romney … it’s a matter of doing the job effectively or not.
The poll also reports that “Obama’s personal popularity also has declined, with 48 percent of voters having favorable impressions of him and 48 percent having unfavorable impressions.
That was down from 53-44 in December. It also was the lowest since November 2011, when it was 47-49.”
Hard to believe that name-calling and whoppers would nick a guy’s nice guy image …
The poll also queried “Who has the better approach with the budget deficit?”
Hot off the wire …
Despite the Administration’s dire warnings, the release of jailed criminal immigrants and the slower-than-usual TSA checks …
The Washington Post is reporting survey results indicating that 61% of folks support the Sequester’s budget cuts overall … though 60% oppose the cuts to military spending.
Said differently, folks overwhelmingly support the non-military donestic spending cuts.
That’s huge!
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Here are some interesting details …
Maybe the President was right when he went around the country shouting that the Sequester would cause great damage.
He probably wasn’t thinking about his approval ratings, though.
The latest Gallup daily tracking poll (a 3-day moving average) reported that 47% approve of the job he’s doing as president.
Obviously, below the 50% Mendoza line.
More interesting: since it’s a 3-day moving average, the drop on March 1 must have been in the low 40s in order to drag the moving average down so precipitously.
Could be noise … or could be signal … reflecting reaction to the debunked catastrophe stories, the Woodward bruhaha, or turn-off to the non-presidential Chicken Little routine.
We’ll see.
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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
After raising taxes on the rich … and, oh yeah, the not rich
… and after 23 executive orders signed with kiddies as the backdrop
… and, just in time for the inauguration ,,,
Gallup reports that President Obama’s approval rating has dropped to 49%
… which is , as you know, less than his oft cited election “mandate”.
Hmmm. Wonder if the mainstream press will report it?
I’m betting the under.
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Follow on Twitter @KenHoma >> Latest Posts
Let’s work through this one slowly …
First, everybody knows that “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.
And, CNBC says Economy Stinks for Many, But It’s Crushing Millennials
More specifically, CNBC reports:
So, you might expect millennials to vote for Romney, right?
Not so fast.
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According to US News: Without Youth Vote, Obama Would Have Lost Election
What?
Are Millennials stupid, or something?
Again, not so fast.
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According to CNN’s exit polls, Obama won 18-29 year old voters by 21 points … 59% to 38%.
But, there’s more to the story.
Romney won a slim majority of white 19 to 24 year olds … 51% to 44%.
But, Obama swamped Romney with young Blacks (91%) and young Latinos (74%).
So, the driver is more Obama’s strength with Blacks and Latinos than his strength with the youth vote.
Maybe, some white Millennials did vote the economy.
And, tere’s still more to the story.
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What’s up with “Other”?
Note that 4% of the 19 to 24 year olds voted for candidates other than Romney or Obama.
My hunch is that most of those votes went to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, not Rosanne Barr.
Doing the math, 4% of the votes … of 18% of voters … equals almost .72% of the total vote.
That’s almost 1% in a 2.5% race … a big deal, right?
Hmmm.
Here we go again …
Gallup’s headline “2012 election had the largest gender gap in recorded history”
OK, CNN’s topline numbers do, in fact say that Obama won women by 10 points and that Romney won men by 9 points … a gender gap of 19 points.
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But, digging deeper, Romney may have lost “women” by 10 points, but he won white women by 14 points.
Romney got shellacked with Black and Latino women … but, at a rate that’s comparable to the shellacking that he took with Black and Latino men.
Said differently, it looks to me like the racial divide is driving the numbers, not gender.
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Note also that married women – in aggregate – favored Romney … by 14 points.
Proportionately more white women are married … suggesting again that race may be driving the apparent gender differences.
At least, that’s what the numbers say …
Punch Line: While political “Sabermetrics” has its value, people still want to indulge their biases and opinions. This ensures that pundits are in no danger of losing their jobs anytime soon.
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Excerpted from Forbes’, “Political Junk Food: Why Pundits Will Survive the Moneyball Election”
This year’s election already seems to have a name, and that’s the Moneyball election.
While this is true … I don’t agree with the growing notion that this election could mark the beginning of the end for professional political pundit.
Think about it: it’s well-known that people of all political leanings tend to seek out information that reinforces their pre-existing beliefs.
Fox News, MSNBC, Drudge and The Daily Show all know this to their very core, and while some of us try to sustain ourselves on a respectable media diet full of journalistic fiber … only the most disciplined of us doesn’t periodically want to throw in a helping of a political Twinkie.
Just as ten years after the Moneyball revolution all baseball organizations still employ scouts, ten years from now news networks will still have plenty of talking heads.
Edit by JDC
My official forecast was wrong, but I did post what was, perhaps, the key decoding ring for the election.
Here’s what I said on November 3 in my post The election’s “Rosetta Stone” … really!
The polls have been bouncing all over the place, and pundits are broadly whining that the reason is difference in “turnout models”.
That is, how many more (or less) Democrats will show up to vote for Obama.
To understand the issue, I framed a related – but inverted — analysis by asking the question: by how much does Dem turnout (in swing states particularly) have to exceed GOP turnout for Obama to win?
The answer: Dem turnout has to be more than about 4 percentage points higher than GOP turnout for Obama to win.
Here’s my summary chart … below it are the assumptions and analytical logic.
From the chart: if Dem turnout is about 8 percentage points more than GOP turnout (as it was in 2008), Obama wins by about 4%; if Dem turnout is less than 4 percentage points greater than the GOP’s, Obama loses.
It’s as simple as that …
But, like many others,I thought that GOP enthusiasm would drive turnout and keep the spread to less than 4%.
Exit polls put the differential at about 6%.
Looking back, the enthusiasm was either overstated, or enthusiasm doesn’t necessarily drive turnout.
Right analysis; wrong core assumption.
The red line is what happened …
Last Sunday, I posted: It’s Sunday, so forget the ‘war on women’ … the ‘war on religion’ may turn the election.
I argued that religious folks would be out in force to vote against Obama because of his support of same-sex marriage and his mandating that Catholic organizations would have to provide free birth control to employees – in an apparent violation of religious rights.
I said that Evangelicals would vote for Romney in droves; that a majority of Catholics would vote Romney; that Obama’s Jewish support was less certain than in 2008, and that Mormons would support their favorite son.
Well, what happened?
According to a Pew Poll:
Pretty much as expected, except for the Hispanic Catholics who voted Hispanic, not Catholic … and the 20% of Mormons who didn’t vote for Romney.
During his presser on Friday, President Obama said:
A tax increase for wealthier Americans “was a central question during the election — it was debated over and over again, and on Tuesday night, we found out that a majority of Americans agree with my approach,” he declared.
Hmmm.
Either a non sequitor or flat out wrong.
Based on CNN’s exiting polling ….
Overall, 47% said to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Hmmm … that “47%” number sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Not to get picky, but …
47% doesn’t constitute a majority … 48% said to either raise taxes on everybody (13%) or nobody (35%).
Drilling down a bit …
Yes, 70% of Obama voters say to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Why’s that?
Well, about 75% of Obama supporters have incomes less than $100k … so they are essentially saying: tax the other guy in order to preserve my benefits.
Doesn’t surprise me that they like the idea.
The majority of folks who would be impacted aren’t quite as keen on the idea.
Bottom line: I don’t see Obama’s “mandate” for jacking up taxes in the numbers …
Based on this week’s vote totals, they don’t seem concerned.
A clear majority of them voted for Obama.
The way I see it, they’re signing up for their share of the debt.
The generational transfer of government debt is officially off my worry list.
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Side note: Doesn’t look like Seniors were MediScared …
Pew asked that question …
Predictably:
What’s your word?
We’ll sort out the bragging rights when the dust settles … but, for the record:
3 polls give the nod to Romney: Rasmussen, Gallup, and NPR.
6 polls give the nod to Obama: IBD/TIPP, ABC/WashPost, NBC/WSJ, Pew, CBS/NYT, National Journal.
4 polls call it a tie: Politico/Battleground, CNN, Monmouth, Fox
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Nate Silver is calling it a landslide for Obama: 313 to 225; 50.8 % of popular vote; 90.9% chance of winning.
Intrade & Betfair have Obama a heavy favorite … 73.4 to 26.5.
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Michael Barone calls it a landslide for Romney 315 to 223.
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Homa Files calls for Romney to win the popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and win about 285 electoral votes.
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Data
I’m going out on a limb today …
I think that the polls have been reporting some false positives for Obama … that is, reporting numbers more favorable than the reality for the President.
Importantly, I’m not suggesting bias by the pollsters. I give them the benefit of the doubt that they’re trying to do a fair & square job.
But, I think that there’s some systematic respondent bias. That is, some surveyed people are refusing to respond to polls … and, others are given answers that might not be truthful.
I don’t think the “refusers” are a random sample.
And, I think that some people are giving “comfortable” answers that may not mesh with their true feelings.
First, let me summarize a couple of things that I noticed in the past couple of days.
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The Catholic Robo-call
Yesterday, I got a very impactful robo-call from a Catholic Religious Rights group.
Well targeted since I’m Catholic and a proponent of religious rights.
Opening line: “Tomorrow, it will be just you and your conscience in the voting booth.”
I wanted to hang up, but I was hooked.
The message: the ObamaCare contraception mandate was about more than contraception … it’s government over-ruling religious beliefs.
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A note to a stiff-necked people
Later yesterday, I noticed a web article by David Mamet from the Jewish Journal.
The essence of the article is that Obama isn’t supportive of Jewish principles – except for social justice – so a Jewish vote for him is unprincipled.
Here’s the full post:
To those Jews planning to vote for Obama:
Are you prepared to explain to your children not the principles upon which your vote is cast, but its probable effects upon them?
Irrespective of your endorsement of liberal sentiments, of fairness and “more equal distribution,” will you explain to your children that top-down economic policies will increasingly limit their ability to find challenging and well-paid work, and that the diminution in employment and income will decrease their opportunity to marry and raise children?
Will you explain (as you have observed) that a large part of their incomes will be used to fund programs that they may find immoral, wasteful and/or indeed absurd? And that the bulk of their taxes go to no programs at all, but merely service the debt you entailed on them?
Will you tell your children that a liberal government will increasingly marginalize, dismiss and weaken the support for and the safety of the Jewish state?
Will you tell them that, in a state-run economy, hard work may still be applauded, but that it will no longer be rewarded?
Will you explain that whatever their personal beliefs, tax-funded institutions will require them to imbibe and repeat the slogans of the left, and that, should they differ, they cannot have a career in education, medicine or television unless they keep their mouths shut
Will you explain to them that it is impossible to make a budget, and that the basic arithmetic we all use at the kitchen table is not practiced at the federal and state level, and to suggest that it should be is “selfishness?”
Most importantly, will you teach them never to question the pronouncements of those in power, for to do so is to risk ostracism?
Are you prepared to sit your children down and talk them through your vote on the future you are choosing for them?
Please remember that we have the secret ballot and, should you, on reflection, vote in secret for a candidate you would not endorse in public, you will not be alone.
Note the last line and its similarity to the Catholic robo-call that I got
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Des Moines Register Poll
Karl Rove was asked how he can be confident that Romney will win Iowa since the Des Moines Register’s latest poll has Obama up by 5 points.
His response:
“I think there’s something going on out there and we saw it in the Des Moines Register poll.
The women who runs the Des Moines Register, who knows the state intimately, told me “Obama is ahead by 5 points, but 5% of our sample said “I’ve made a choice but I won’t tell you who it is”.
The Des Moines Register is a very liberal Democratic paper, so I doubt those people are are for Obama.”
Hmmm.
Folks unwilling to tell a pollster the whole truth.
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Poll response rates
Over the weekend we posted a Pew analysis that says survey response rates – the percentage of called people willing to take a survey – is down to under 10%.
Pew says there’s no systematic difference between Democrats and Republicans.
MJ, a loyal reader, emailed me asking if I believed that.
My reply: “Those are the numbers, but my gut tells me that response rates are higher among Democrats.”
My answer was subconsciously recalling that past exit poll fiascos have been partially explained by Republicans being less willing to take exit polls … for philosophical reasons … and because they need to rush off to work.
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Rasmussen Polls
I mentioned in my final prediction poll that I’ve been intrigued that Rasmussen – an automated phone survey – always seems to score Obama lower than tradition person-to-person phone interviews.
In that post Iasked “wonder why?”
After posing the prediction, I noticed a WSJ piece reprising the “Bradley Effect” … people saying that they’re voting for a minority candidate – even though they don’t intend to … so that the interviewer wouldn’t think that they’re prejudiced against minorities.
I don’t think the Bradley Effect was evident in 2008 … I think practically all folks were giving pro-Obama responses because they really intended to vote for Obama.
For at least some folks, I’m not so sure that’s the case in 2012.
It’s much easier to “punch 2 if you’re voting for Romney” tnan to tell it to an interviewer who you think may be judging you based on your answer.
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Bottom line
My hunch is that some people are ducking surveys –- evidenced by the very low response rates –- to avoid an uncomfortable situation.
Rather than declare that they’re going to vote for Romney, and risk interviewer displeasure, they’d just as soon refuse to be interviewed.
For those who agree to be interviewed, if they plan to vote for Romney, they may falsely report they’re voting for Obama … just to give the interviewer politically correct answers.
Similarly, some folks in groups that are broadly pro-Obama (think Manet’s editorial above) are just staying silent until they get in the voting booth.
I may be totally off base, but the anecdotes above can’t be just coincidences.
We’ll know tonite or tomorrow.
Couple of safe predictions:
(1) If Romney wins big, everyone will ask :”How could the polls be so wrong?”
(2) Every pundit will dance around the issue – highlighting turnout numbers by party – and avoid the above explanation like a plague.
Buried in the final Battleground Poll
Frequent pundit riff: People might not like his policies, but they still like him as a person.
Not so fast.
Polling says:
For the record, here’s NY Times Nate Silver’s last prediction before the polls open.
Well, technically, first prediction since the polls opened in a couple of upper New England villages.
Silver probably has more to win or lose than Obama today.
The self-proclaimed smartest and last honest pollster in the world is calling for an Obama landslide.
If Obama delivers, Silver will be the pollster of all pollsters.
If Obama flames, Silver will be back cranking out baseball statistics.
Part of today’s drama.
Tick, tick, tick,
According to HotAir.com …
Rasmussen’s national polling of party affiliation now shows the biggest Republican advantage since at least 2004:
In modern times, the GOP has never had a turnout advantage in a presidential election.
The closest they came was drawing even with Democrats at 37 percent in 2004.
Given Romney’s lead with independents, if GOP stays even with Dem turnout, Romney wins.
If the GOP hits Rasmussen’s numbers, it’s a landslide.
Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup’s Final Election Survey
Also: Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney
Romney … wins popular vote, for sure
… wins an electoral college squeaker
… Wisconsin seals the win; upset in Pennsylvania ; Ohio won’t matter.
= = = = =
More specifically, I see the probabilities:
So, to summarize:
Best guess: Romney wins popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and wins about 285 electoral votes.
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Critical Factors
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Soft Stuff
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Gut Check
I don’t give investment advice, but …
I think that – in the next 6 months — the stock market will go up 20% if Romney is elected and down 30% (sooner rather than later) if Obama is elected.
From the above, I think the probabilities of winning are 55% for Romney to 45% for Obama.
So, expected values are:
Bottom line: I sold mucho stocks into the rally a couple of weeks ago.
I figure that if Mitt wins I can buy back in and just miss part of the upside.
If Obama wins, I didn’t want to be caught holding stocks.
= = = = =
OK, I’m on the record!
Let’s see what happens …
The CNN headline is “Deadlocked at 49%”
The polls’ internals tell a different story.
To get the tie, CNN uses a turnout mix that’s Dems +11% … 3 points higher than 2008.
Nobody is predicting that.
Even at Dems +11 Romney ties … thanks to a 59% to 37% lead with Independents.
Bottom line: Based on the CNN internals, if turnout is the same mix as 2008 (Dems +8%), Romney wins by 2.5%
Prediction: this will be a year when polls take a beating.
In the stretch run, all the polls shift to “likely voters”.
Each poll has a different method for categorizing a respondent as a likely voter
The two prevalent metrics are (1) did they vote in 2008, and (2) do they say they’re going to vote
I think that both measures may be suspect this year.
First, it’s commonly reported that many of Obama’s 2008 voters will stay home this year. Think, college students.
Second, self-reporting typically overstates likelihood to vote. Its a common survey bias – folks don’t want to admit that they’re going to skip their civic duty.
Third, this is an election that will be determined by turnout.
Dems have an info systems advantage and have a strong ground game – largely driven by unions and paid organizations.
GOP has an old school GOTV system – driven by volunteers and church groups … and, the GOP seems to have a significant enthusiasm advantage.
We’ll see what prevails on Tuesday … new school data-driven micro-targeting and internet social networking or old school grind-it-out person-to-person mobilization.
Whichever prevails, it’ll be a classic case study.
That’s the question I was asked yesterday.
When I said OK, the surveyor said “Really? Thank you so much.”
Got me thinking about why the polls have been bouncing around so much and why the many polls often seem contradictory.
Maybe the answer is that maybe, just maybe, the polls aren’t as representative as they’d like to believe.
Turns out that Pew did a study of survey responsiveness.
In the old days, about 1 in 3 people would do surveys.
At the time, that was considered an alarmingly low rate.
These days, the response rate is under 10%.
That means that it’s harder and most costly for survey firms to build their samples.
And, it raises questions about respondents … are they, in fact, representative of the world?
For the record, Pew says that Dems and Republicans have equal propensity to respond to surveys.
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Do you own a German Shepard ?
Highlight of the interview was when our dog Captain started barking in the background.
The interviewer asked if I owned a German Shepard.
I asked “Is that one of your classification variables? Do you find that GS owners are more or less likely to vote for Obama?”
She didn’t think it was funny.
According to Gallup and USA Today …
Romney & Obama remain deadlocked in the swing states …
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… but, the GOP has a 10 point edge in enthusiasm.
The headline this afternoon was Pew’s final pre-election survey:
Obama 50%, Romney 47%.
Bummer … especially since Obama hits the magic 50%
But, Pew’s raw numbers were 48% to 45% … they then allocated 4 points of undecided voters 50/50. Huh?
So, Obama still below 50%.
Another ray of hope: margin of error 2 points … so it could be Romney 47%, Obama 46%
Key facts:
Let’s plug those numbers into our simple turnout model:
= = = = =
Required GOP Turnout
Now, let’s ask the question: how much does the GOP have to shrink the turnout differential to win with Pew’s numbers.
Answer: if the GOP can narrow the turnout differential to less than 1%, Mitt wins.
= = = = =
The Religious Factor
Romney wins:
Obama wins “unaffiliated with religion” 66% to 24%
Per our post earlier today, I think religious groups may swing the election …
My final prediction comes tomorrow.
That’s what the original Grandma used to say.
I have yet to run into anyone who says they voted for McCain in ‘08 but are voting for Obama in ‘12.
But, I’ve had several folks tell me they voted for Obama in ‘08, but are pulling the lever for Romney next Tuesday.
The Wash Post did an analysis of 16% of Obama’s ‘08 supporters who are jumpin’ ship.
The loyalists are the expected: liberal Democrats, blacks and Hispanics.
The jumpers are also the usual suspects: Conservatives & Republicans who bought the hype; Evangelicals, and men – especially white ones..
Perhaps, the bigger point is that Obama drew 52.9% of the vote in 2008.
If 16% desert him, he’s down to under 45%.
Hmmm.
The polls have been bouncing all over the place, and pundits are broadly whining that the reason is difference in “turnout models”.
That is, how many more (or less) Democrats will show up to vote for Obama.
To understand the issue, I framed a related – but inverted — analysis by asking the question: by how much does Dem turnout (in swing states particularly) have to exceed GOP turnout for Obama to win?
The answer: Dem turnout has to be more than about 4 percentage points higher than GOP turnout for Obama to win.
Here’s my summary chart … below it are the assumptions and analytical logic.
From the chart: if Dem turnout is about 8 percentage points more than GOP turnout (as it was in 2008), Obama wins by about 4%; if Dem turnout is less than 4 percentage points greater than the GOP’s, Obama loses.
It’s as simple as that … especially on a swing state by swing state basis.
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Assumptions & Analysis
While there has been a lot of bounce in the numbers, a couple of things appear to be pretty stable.
First, both Romney and Obama capture over 90% of their party’s votes.
Second, independents are generally about 1/3 of the total voting base … and, independents seem to be breaking towards Romney 55% to 45%.
In a nutshell, that means that Obama has to overcome a 3.3% Romney vote advantage with over-performance in Dem turnout.
Let’s run through a couple of examples:
1) Assume that the turnout is evenly split among Dems, GOP, and independents; that Obama & Romney each get 95% of their party’s votes; and that independents vote Romney 55% to 45%.
Under these assumptions, Dems have no turnout advantage (because that’s what we assumed) … and Obama loses by 3.3%.
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2) Same assumptions as example #1, except assume that the Dem turnout is 8 percentage points greater than the GOP’s … roughly comparable to 2008 voting patterns.
Under these assumptions, Obama wins by almost 4%.
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3) Same assumptions as example #1, except assume that the Dem turnout is 3.7 percentage points less than the GOP’s.
Under these assumptions, the race is tied … we’ve found the sweet spot … if the Dems turnout advantage is more than 3.7 percentage points, Obama wins; less than that and he loses.
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Final Notes
1) It’s simply math magic that the relationship works out to be linear … as displayed on the summary chart.
2) If you don’t like my assumptions, plug in your own … my conclusion: the numbers are pretty robust to changes in the assumptions
3) Nobody seems to be predicting Dem turnout comparable to 2008 … In fact, some are predicting that GOP will have a turnout advantage,
4) You haven’t seen an analysis like this anywhere else, right? Only in the Homa Files …
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According to a recent Pew report
The Dem and Republican ground games are performing at rough parity with each other.
In the important battleground states, 13% have been contacted by Obama supporters
… 14% have been contacted by Romney supporters, and
…. 38% have been contacted by both.
Pew didn’t ask how many times?
If the Homa family experience is projectable, that answer is about 3 phone calls and 3 pieces of mail each day.
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The shocker
About those robo-calls …
Pew says that roughly 2 in 3 people don’t listen to robo-calls that they get
… 81% find them annoying, and
…. the robo-calls make 1 in 5 people angry.
My question: why do 1 in 3 people listen to the robo-calls.
According to a just released Pew poll …
Roughly 1 in 5 have voted early.
Among early voters, Romney has the edge 50% to 45%.
Romney is outperforming McCain’s rate in 2008 by 16 percentage points.
Obama is underperforming his 2008 performance by 10 percentage points.
Hmmm.
The election polls results are all over the place.
My take: the election is a dead heat nationally (slight Romney edge in the popular vote) and in key swing states (slight Obama lead in pivotal swing states, lead in electoral votes).
But … the fat lady hasn’t sung yet.
To get a better understanding of the dynamics in play, I dug into this week’s NPR poll.
Why NPR?
Because, if anything, it leans left, so no cookin’ the books for Mitt.
Also, it reported some interesting metrics that provide a basis for some interesting analysis.
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Topline Results
First, NPR reports Romney leading Obama by 1 point … 48% to 47% for all respondents … dead heat.
And, 48% + 47% = 95%, so 5% are still undecided, voting for another candidate, or hopelessly confused … or all three.
So, 5 points are arguably up for grabs.
Conventional wisdom says they break mostly for the challenger … advantage Romney.
Looking deeper – into the footnotes, NPR says:
In other words, Romney’s score could be as high as 51% or as low 45%.
Obama’s score could be as high as 50% and as low as 44%.
Bottom line: Either candidate might be leading … Romney could be leading by as many as 7 points … 51% to 44%.
Or, Obama could be leading by as many as 5 points … 50% to 45%.
That doesn’t tell us much, right?
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Independent Voters
Let’s look at the Independent voters (above chart).
Romney leads with independent voters by 12 points … 51% to 39%,
Is that lead statistically significant?
Well, NPR says:
So, Romney could be as high as 56.5% or as low as 45.5%.
Obama could be as high as 44.5% or as low as 33.5%.
Bottom line: Romney has an unequivocal, statistically significant lead among Independents.
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Voter Intensity
Here’s where things get interesting …
NPR asked:
In marketing research, there’s a principle called the “top box effect”.
In essence, it says to focus on folks who check the highest level allowed … and pretty much ignore the rest as insignificant.
So, what do the numbers tell us?
Republican “intensity”, i.e. “extremely enthusiastic”, is 76% – 10 percentage points higher than the Dems 66% … and 22% higher than Independents 54%.
That’s a big intensity advantage for the Republicans.
How might it translate to votes?
We need another piece of data and some basic arithmetic.
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Turnout Assumption
You’ve probably been hearing the grumbling—mostly from Republicans – that recent surveys have been skewed Democratic … that they implicitly assume that Dems will turnout more than Republicans.
The NPR “mix” is 35% Republicans, 33% Independents, and 31% Republicans.
We’ll test the sensitivity of those numbers later … for now, let’’s use NPR’s assumption.
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”Hard Support”
OK, now let’s play with the numbers.
Here’s the summary chart … below, I’ll explain it.
What we’re trying to get to is “Hard Support” … folks who are “intense” (“extremely enthusiastic”) and favor Romney or Obama.
To get at that, we have to look at Republicans, Independents and Democrats separately.
For example, 76% of Republicans are “extremely enthusiastic” … and 96% of Republicans say they’ll vote for Romney.
Multiply those 2 numbers together, and they imply that 73% of Republicans are both “extremely enthusiastic” and inclined to vote for Romney (76% X 96% = 73%).
Since the sample “mix” is 31% Republican, Romney’s hard support from Republicans is equivalent to 22.6% of all voters (since 73% X 31% = 22.6%).
Applying the same calculations to the other classifications (Independent & Democrat) … and the data indicates that of Romney’s total of 48%, 32.9% is “hard support” and 15.2% is “soft support” that is less likely to show up at the polls.
Repeating the process for Obama, the data indicates that of Obama’s total of 47%. 29.1%% is “hard support” and 17.9% is “soft support”.
So what?
Romney has a 3.7 percentage advantage in hard support – the folks who are most likely to show up at the polls.
That’s a statistically significant number, given the polls 3 point margin of error.
Bottom line: If we factor in intensity, Romney has statistically significant advantage.
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Another mix scenario
Let’s add one more twist.
What if the mix of Dems and Republicans is roughly equal at 33% … instead of 35% to 31%?
Big change!
Romney’s lead increases to 5.6% percentage points … Romney 50.6% to Obama 45%.
And, Romney’s hard support lead increases to 6.4 percentage points … well outside the margin of error.
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Punch line
Yes, the headline number may signal a dead heat … within the margin of error.
But, if you factor in intensity and party mix … the numbers change pretty dramatically.
The Republican’s intensity advantage and lead among Independents seem pretty consistent across polls.
So, the key for Republicans is delivering on the intensity advantage … making sure that the “extremely enthusiastic” Republican & Independent voters turnout to vote.
For Dems, the turnout effort is even more critical since they have to close the intensity gap.
Dems claim that their turnout machine gives it substantial competitive advantage that will close the gap … or more.
I guess we’ll see next Tuesday.
A sharp-eyed Homa Files reader commented that the rankings we posted yesterday were preliminary … and that the Fordham prof. officially published a final listing that has substantially different ranking.
Here’s what we reported yesterday:
According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.
Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.
The finals report still has Gallup, CBS, NY Times, and Reuters (C-SPAN) at the bottom of the heap.
Rasmussen and Pew – the preliminary winners – drop to the middle in the final report.
At the top: McClatchy, CNN and Fox … with Democracy Corps copping the top prize.
Thanks to D. Vargas for feeding the lead
Trick question: According to the latest Pew Poll Report , Obama’s support has fallen with all groups (except Democrats”) … from his actual performance in 2008 and his projected performance in 2012.
His biggest drops are among Independents (down 12 percentage points) and young 18-29 voters (down 10 percentage points).
Versus Sen. McCain’s results in 2008, Romney shows modest gains almost across the board.
The narrative in the mainstream media the past couple of weeks is that the Obama machine is building an enormous lead over Romney in early voting.
Well, Gallup just released a poll on early voters that seems to debunk the notion.
Here are the key findings …
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Only 15% of registered voters have already voted
… another 18% said they plan to vote early
… and 2/3s said they’ll vote on election day.
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Early voting in the battleground Midwest (13%) is slightly below the national average (15%)
… the uncontested Obama-West leads the nation with 1/2 voting early.
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More Republicans than Democrats have voted early
…. Independents are most waiting for election day.
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Of those who have voted early, Romney edges Obama 52 to 46.
Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.
Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.
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Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election
IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.
Last week I said “Romney hasn’t led in any Ohio polls.
Strike that, as of today.
Most recent Rasmussen poll has Romney up by 2 points, and hitting the magic 50% number.
While Rasmussen is typically thought to lean right, it was the most accurate poll in the 2008 election … more on that tomorrow.
PS Have you noticed the media burst today re: Wisconsin as the new Ohio? For the record, HomaFiles was on that one last Friday … ahead of the curve.
Obama’s job approval numbers have dropped significantly in the past week … into the mid-40s … in both the Gallup & Rasmussen daily tracking polls.
He has been underwater by a point or two in Rasmussen for the past couple of weeks.
But, he was riding 50-plus approval numbers in Gallup until the past couple of days … so the drop in that survey is big news.
Why is this a big deal?
Pundits’ wisdom is than an incumbent’s vote ceiling is his job approval number going into the election … and, if it’s below 50, that’s obviously bad news.
What might explain the drop?
Couple of hypotheses:
1) Obama’s negative campaigning and quirky ads (e.g. “First Time”) this week may have turned some folks off.
2) Benghazi-gate may be catching up to him … especially the dead Seal’s father going public with his disappointment on Obama’s reaction.
3) The giant thud heard when he released his 20-page glossy economic plan
4) The polls may be whacky … especially Gallup, which has been very erratic since it changed its methodology a month or so ago.
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Focus on the polls since Oct. 23 … toss out the CBS poll which is broadly considered a partisan outlier.
The Homa Files 