The New York Times’ Nate Silver will emerge from this election as either the greatest predictor ever … or as a complete dufass.
We’re posting his column from yesterday so that we have it in the Homa Files archives …
We’ll know in 12 days, Nate.
Archive for the ‘Polls & Surveys’ Category
Nate Silver: Mitt’s momentum has stopped … oh, really?
October 26, 2012Morning line: The latest Presidential polls …
October 26, 2012The betting books still have Obama 2 to 1
* * * * *
The RCP average is Romney up by about a point.
But, the polls from this week have Romney up by 2 points … with only ! poll (IBS) having Obama in the lead.
Romney hits 50% in 3 of the polls …
Gallup: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
October 24, 2012Based on the most recent Gallup poll, the economy ranks – clear and away – the top issue on both men’s and women’s minds these days.
* * * * *
And, according to the latest WJ-NBC poll, Romney leads on the economic issues …
Interesting polling factoid …
October 22, 2012RealClearPolitics included 7 polls in it’s poll=of-polls today … 4 have Romney leading, 2 have Obama leading, and 1 is a tie.
The 2 that have Obama leading are co-sponsored by conservative publications: Investor’s Business Daily and the Washington Times.
Go figure …
WSJ/NBC: Post-debate bounce … for Romney
October 21, 2012According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Sunday …
Romney Surges to Tie Obama in National Poll
A late surge in support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has put him in a dead heat with President Barack Obama.
Among likely voters, the candidates are now tied, 47% to 47%.
Mr. Romney has pulled abreast of the president for the first time all year in the Journal poll, erasing a three-point lead among likely voters that Mr. Obama had in late September.
Mr. Romney’s surge followed his strong debate performance in Denver early this month and a contentious second debate with Mr. Obama last week.
Hmmm
The state of the race … 3 views.
October 20, 2012With a little more than 2 weeks to go in the Presidential race ….
Gallup’s daily tracking survey reported that Romney’s lead widened to 7-points … 52% to 45%.
Karl Rove (hard right, of course) was on talk shows yesterday saying that no candidate who has been over 50% on Gallup 3 weeks out has ever lost the general election.
Nate Silver (New York Times, hard left) was leading the charge to debunk Gallup. More on Nate below
* * * * *
RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls had Romney up by a point at 47.7%
But, RealClearPolitics had a major change in it’s electoral votes recap.
For the first time it’s tally of “likely & leans” states had Romney in the lead … 206 to 201.
When toss-up states (i.e. those within the margins of errors) are assigned to candidates, Obama maintains a narrowing lead 294 to 244.
* * * * *
Nate Silver of the New York Times is the self-anointed gold standard of polling and darling of the left.
He throws a lot of numbers around … says he’s unbiased … but seems to have a penchant for cherry-picking.
Case in point: the Gallup results.
Silver’s prediction model weights Gallup pretty high … 12%.
But, since Gallup didn’t give the answer that Nate liked this week, he wrote an article titled “Gallup vs. the World” that said Gallup performs poorly when out of the consensus … so, it should be discounted or dismissed as an outlier.
In fact, he went counter Gallup and increased Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College to 65.7 percent from 64.8 percent.
More specifically, he pegged the Electoral College at 292 to 246 … roughly in line with RCP’s no leaners scenario.
And, Silver continued to show Obama leading in the popular vote by 1.5 points … with a majority.
* * * * *
OK, with these markers set, we’ll circle back on these surveys after the election.
Mixed signals from Gallup …
October 19, 2012OK, we know I’m rooting for Mitt … so I like the “horse race” reporting that he leads Obama by 7 points and has a majority.
But … and it’s a big but … that measure doesn’t seem to sync with Gallup’s daily Presidential Approval survey … which has Obama at 50% approval.
So, 50% approve of the job he’s doing, but only 44% are going to vote for him?
Can be rationalized that some folks think Obama is doing a good job but that Mitt would do a better job … but that’s a stretch.
Gallup changed its approval methodology when they got poked by Axlerod and threatened by Holder & the DOJ … immediately after the methodology changed, Obama’s approval numbers improved.
I can’t decode whether Gallup changed the horse race survey methods, too.
Bottom line: results are very curious.
I’d be feeling more relaxed if the approval and election numbers were in sync.
Who would you trust to handle your family’s money & bank accounts – Obama or Romney?
October 10, 2012Interesting question asked in the latest Fox News poll.
Not surprisingly, Romney gets the nod 50% to 38%
Hmmm.
Remember, the Fed gov’t doesn’t have any money of it’s own – it just takes and manages our money.
And, since voter preferences are running about 50-50 … about 12% either don’t think the question is relevant or are satisfied having the inferior money-handler handling their dough.
Go figure.
* * * * *
Update
I was asked about possible sampling bias …. here are the “internals” with party affiliation … and more
click to view
Draw your own conclusions.
What’s up with Gallup?
October 1, 2012Like most Romney supporters, I’m grabbing at straws to find hope in the recent polls.
Gallup has some recent numbers that have me scratching my head.
Last week, according to Gallup, Obama’s approval rating skyrocketed.
According to my analysis, Gallup had Obama’s approval jumping by an unprecedented 12 points in a single day.
Technical note: To isolate daily movements, I “unpacked” the 3 -day averages to see what the newest day’s score would have had to be to move the 3-day average.
Really?
The economy’s tanking and the Middle East is afire … and Obama’s approval jumps.
Just doesn’t pass the smell test.
So, I did a little digging.
Here’s an article I picked up from earlier in the month.
Senior Obama Campaign adviser David Axelrod reportedly contacted The Gallup Organization to discuss the company’s research methodology after their poll’s findings were unfavorable to the President.
After declining to adjust their methodology, Gallup was named in an unrelated lawsuit by the DOJ.
Probably unrelated to the numbers, but sure looks funny.
Do Americans think that they can trust government?
September 20, 2012Yes for state and local governments … the Federal government: not so much.
According to Gallup, less than 1 in 5 Americans say that they trust the Federal government
… over 80% only trust the Federal government some of the time or never.
* * * * * *
According to Gallup, a majority say that they trust state governments to handle their problems
…. about 2 in 3 think they can trust their local governments.
The lesson to politicos: keep it local … decentralized … closer (and more responsive) to the people.
Are you angry with the Federal government?
September 18, 2012According to a Pew Research poll, 1 in 5 Americans are angry with the Federal government
… another 56% say they’re frustrated with the Federal government
That leaves less than 1 in 5 who are basically content with the Federal government.
How are you feeling these days?
How many Tea Partiers voted for Obama?
September 14, 2012According to pollsters Rasmussen & Schoen in their book “Mad as Hell … …
A significant number of self-identified Tea Party supporters —20 to 30 percent, depending on the poll — voted for Obama,
To put hat number in context:
- A February 20, 2010, Economist/YouGov poll found that one in five Americans identify themselves as being part of the Tea Party movement.
- Approximately 35 percent of the electorate self-identifies as Tea Party “supporters.
* * * * *
Source: Rasmussen, Scott; Schoen, Doug,
Mad As Hell (pp. 44, 219, 220).
Harper Collins, Kindle Edition.
Obama’s problem with men …
September 12, 2012Lots of media coverage re: Romney’s “problem “ with women … less about Obama’s man problem.
According to the latest CNN poll, Romney-Ryan trails Obama-Biden by 12 points among women … 42% to 54%.
But, the numbers flip for men ,,, with Romney-Ryan leading by 12 points … 55% to 43%.
Hmmm.
Stepping back to see the forest from the trees …
September 6, 2012In marketing, there’s a measure called the net promoter’s index … in essence, it’s a company’s percentage of avid supporters minus the percentage of avid disapprovers.
Gallup tracks presidential approval daily … below is Obama’s net approval rating (% approve minus % disapprove) since inauguration.
Note a couple of big picture points:
- The overall trend during Obama’s term has been down … even adjusting for the extraordinary hope & change starting point
- The most recent bounce back didn’t full recover the 2011 drop
- The 2012 trend has been consistently down
The big election question: will Obama continue to slide until election day or stage enough of a bounce back to squeak out a win?
Who’s viewed more favorably – Obama or Romney? Biden or Ryan?
September 5, 2012Well, well, well.
According to the most recent CNN poll, more likely voters (53%) view Romney favorably than view Obama favorably (51%).
And, more view Obama unfavorably (48%) than view Romney unfavorably (43%).
BTW: Ryan is viewed way more favorably than Biden
Think the mainstream media will pick up on these poll results?
I’m betting not.
* * * * *
CNN Question #4:
We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people.
Does the Federal gov’t have a positive or negative impact on your life?
August 29, 2012According Pew Research, an increasing plurality (43%) of people think the Federal government negatively impacts their lives.
15 years ago, 50% thought he impact was positive … now, only 38% think so …..
How do you feel?
Is the Federal government a good value?
August 28, 2012A Kaiser Foundation survey asked folks:
Thinking about all that the Federal government does for you, do you think that you get more or less value than what you pay in taxes?
The results
- Less than 10% said that they got more value than what they paid in taxes.
- About 1/3 thought they got about the right value for taxes paid
- More than half of the respondents said that they got less value than what they paid in taxes.
Of course, the last finding is most interesting since it’s a majority … and since about half of the folks don’t pay any income taxes.
Hmmm
* * * * * *
The “top box effect” … measuring folks with strong feelings.
August 6, 2012Last Friday’s Rasmussen Report paints an interesting picture.
Disclaimer: yes, Rasmussen tends to lean right.
I’ve always been a proponent of the “top box effect” … i.e. focusing of folks who either strongly approve or strongly disapprove of a product … or a candidat.
Well, Rasmussen reports that President Obama’s “Presidential Approval Index” – the strongly approves minus the strongly disapproves – is now 23 points underwater.
And, the number of folks who strongly disapprove outnumber the total number who approve (strongly plus somewhat) … 45% to 44%
Those are what’s called statistically significant numbers !
Apparently young adults and Latinos didn’t get the memo …
August 1, 2012A question in the most recent McClatchy poll caught my eye …
The question: Should Congress extend the Bush tax cuts to everybody or “only to the middle class”?
I always expect this question to come out 98% to 2% in favor of hiking taxes on the “other guy”.
So, I was surprised to see the overall count at 52% to 43% in favor of extending the current tax rates for everybody.
Gets even more interesting …
Latinos are 62% to 36% in favor of extending for everybody.
Young adults 18 to 29 weighed in 69% to 29% in favor of extending to everybody.
So, two of Obama’s key constituencies seem out of line with respect to the President’s line in the sand re: jacking up taxes on the rich.
Hmmm.
But, they still like him … not.
July 19, 2012Couple of questions from the NYT/CBS poll caught my eye …
First, keep in mind that NYT/CBS bends left … and is known to oversample Dems.
The conventional wisdom is that folks may not like Obama’s policies, but that they like him as a person.
I’ve always thought that conclusion was overstated since there’s survey because of social forces and resulting survey bias …
Recently, Obama has been quite visible on the campaign trail … with negative attacks on Romney … sometimes repeating accusations that have been discredited by fact-checkers.
Well, guess what?
In the latest NYT?CBS poll, Obama is viewed UNFAVORABLY by 48% … only 36% view him favorably … that’s only 4 points higher than Romney.
Perhaps negative campaigning isn’t as effect as the pundits have been saying,
Hmmm … some interesting polling results.
July 5, 2012The most recent CNN/ORC Poll results caught my eye.
Specifically, the demographic breakdown of President Obama’s job approval – disapproval.
Overall, CNN says that 51% approve of the job Obama is doing; 47% disapprove.
Here’s where it gets interesting:
90% of Dems approve; 85% of GOPers dis-approve
75% of non-whites approve; 58% of white dis-approve.
62% of urbanites approve; 55% of rurals dis-approve.
57% of folks under 50 years old approve; 55% of the over 50s dis-approve.
55% of folks making less than $50k approve; 50% of those making more than $50k dis-approve.
54% in non-battleground states approve; in battleground state, 52% dis-approve
44% of independents approve; 53% disapprove
So, the Obama composite: young non-white urbanites making less than $50k.
The dis-approvers: older non-urban whites making more than $50K.
Hmmm …
Important polling result … the “top box” effect.
June 25, 2012First, a couple of disclaimers: it’s way early to put much stock in polls … and Rasmussen leans right.
That said, last week, for the first time, the percentage of folks who strongly disapprove of Obama’s job performance exceeds the total percentage of folks who approve – either somewhat or very.
Why this is significant: many researchers argue that only the”top box”, i.e. “strongly”, are all that have statistical merit … think “net promoter index”.
So, the fact the strong disapprovers out number total approvers is a big deal … at least statistically.
I bet Rasmussen will even miss this critical relationship …
FOX News buoys Obama’s approval ratings …
June 18, 2012You read that right.
Yesterday’s RCP’s poll-of-polls had Obama’s approval underwater by 1.9 points.
That’s not big news, but …
In an ironic twist, the only poll that had more folks approving than disapproving was the poll conducted by FOX News.
You know, the FOX News that’s biased against Obama
Go figure ….
Gallup: “National Mood a Drag on Obama’s Re-Election Prospects” … say, what?
May 23, 2012According to Gallup :
Some six months before voters head to the polls to choose the next president of the United States,
Gallup finds several indicators of the economic and political climate holding steady at levels that could be troublesome for President Barack Obama.
According to Gallup polling in early May, Obama’s approval rating is below 50%, Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the country is barely above 20%, and the economy remains a dominant concern.
Talk about a juxtaposition of cause & effect … perhaps, its President Obama who is responsible for the country’s lack of confidence … rather than the lack of confidence causing headwinds for the President.
* * * * *
Side Note
41% of the country was “satisfied with direction of the U.S.” when Bush was vying for re-election.
Biden coins Obama 2012 campaign slogan, berates donors … and, the dumbest poll question ever.
May 4, 2012Last week in a major policy address on foreign policy, VP Biden cited a reason to elect President Obama: because he has “a big stick”.
Say what?
Maybe “Cool with a Big Stick” will catch on as a replacement for Hope & Change …
This jabrone a gift that keeps on giving.
* * * * *
Biden Berates Donors
According to pool press reports:
Vice President Joe Biden berated campaign donors at a fundraiser in Washington D.C.
“I guess what I’m trying to say without boring you too long at breakfast – and you all look dull as hell.
I might add. The dullest audience I have ever spoken to.
Just sitting there, staring at me. Pretend you like me!”
* * * * *
Dumbest Poll Question
While we’re on the topic …
Also last week, the FoxNews poll asked one of the dumbest questions ever:
“Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as Vice President?”
The results: a toss-up
My take:
1) Do people have any idea what the “job as Vice President” is? Not sure that I do …
2) Hard for me to believe that 84% of the people even know who Joe Biden is.
3) Even if they did know what a VP does, and have an opinion re” how well Biden is doing the job … who cares?
Polls: the ‘normal’ biases are back … whew!
April 16, 2012A month ago — in a post titled Head-scratching polling results — we pointed out:
… right-leaning FOX News has Obama +2 in approval, Rasmussen and Bloomberg — also usually a bit to the right — have him +1.
But, left-leaning Gallup has Obama down 7 points.
Far left-leaning CBS/NYT and ABC/Wash Post have him down 6 points and 4 points, respectively.
I thought those results were quite curious.
Well, I’m happy to report that the planets are back in alignment.
According to RCP, right-leaning Fox has Obama 6 points under water.
Left-leaning CNN, ABC, and Washington Post have him 5 to 6 points above water.
We’re back to the old normal … whew.
Head-scratching polling results …
March 20, 2012We haven’t been posting re: presidential approval numbers for awhile … the numbers have been bouncing around so much based on the news cycle that I largely dismiss them.
But, something in last week’s poll numbers caught my eye …
Note that right-leaning FOX News has Obama +2 in approval, Rasmussen and Bloomberg — also usually a bit to the right — have him +1.
But, left-leaning Gallup has Obama down 7 points.
Far left-leaning CBS/NYT and ABC/Wash Post have him down 6 points and 4 points, respectively.
I think the latter two are what caused last week’s hand-wringing among Obamites, since NYT & Wash Post have a reputation for over-sampling Dems in their surveys. So, it’s harder for Dems to dismiss them than, say, Fox News.I still don’t make much of the results, but think they’re interesting …
Source: RCP
But people still like him … oh, really?
January 16, 2012According to the NY Times …
A CNN poll released Friday found that 49 percent of Americans have a favorable view of President Obama and 49 percent an unfavorable view.
Hmmm.
For comparison, 43 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Mitt Romney and 42 percent an unfavorable view.
Since O’s election, Democratic ranks shrinking …
January 10, 2012According to Rasmussen:
- 35.4% of Americans consider themselves Republicans
- 32.7% of adults say they are Democrats,
- 32.0% say they are independents — not affiliated with either of the major political parties
Versus 2009 (end of Obama’s first year in office):
- Democrats’ affiliation is down, 2.8 percentage points (about 8%)
- Republicans’ affiliation is up 1.4 percentage points (about 4%)
- Independents are up 1.4 percentage points (about 4%)
All of which squares with my observation that I haven’t run into a single McCain voter who says they’ll vote for Obama in 2012 … but, I’ve run into many Obama ‘08 voters who say they won’t vote for him again.
Source: Rasmussen
Uh-oh: Obama slips among youth and independents …
December 19, 2011I’ve said before: I have run into folks who voted for Obama in 2008 who say they won’t vote for him in 2012, but haven’t run into anybody who didn’t vote for him in 2008 who say they will in 2012.
Data seems to confirm my random anecdotal evidence …
From the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll:
Not only is Pres. Obama’s overall approval rating lagging, but he’s lost as much (or even more) ground among groups that favored him in 2008 as among those who resisted him last time.
Overall, Obama has slipped from 52.8 percent of the vote in 2008 to 44 percent approval in the new survey with 49 percent disapproving.
As the chart below shows, Obama has declined not only in the groups that were always dubious of him, but also with several that enthusiastically joined his winning 2008 majority.
The groups that have proven most resistant to this trend are Hispanics (where Obama’s latest approval rating has slipped just three percentage points from his 2008 vote share); seniors (where he’s actually running slightly ahead) and families earning at least $100,000 annually (where he’s also fallen just three percentage points.)
Shocker: Over 80% of Americans dissatisfied with government
September 29, 2011Punch line: According to Gallup a record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed
As Gomer Pyle would say “surprise, surprise, surprise.”
Ken’s Take Carter tanked it, Reagan brought it back, Clinton held it, Bush re-tanked it, Obama sqandered hope & change to all-time lows.
* * * * *
Drilling Down
Majorities of Democrats (65%) and Republicans (92%) are dissatisfied with the nation’s governance.
69% say they have little or no confidence in the legislative branch of government, an all-time high and up from 63% in 2010.
57% have little or no confidence in the federal government to solve domestic problems
43% have little or no confidence in the government to solve international problems.
53% have little or no confidence in the men and women who seek or hold elected office.
Americans believe, on average, that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every tax dollar
49% of Americans believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens.
Majority now thinks Obama is blame-worthy for the state of the economy…
September 28, 2011Based on a new Gallup poll, 69% say that Bush gets at least some of the blame for the bad economy … that’s down 10 points from a couple of years ago … as memories fade.
And, for the first time, a majority of Americans (53%) thinks that President Obama has some culpability for the current condition of the economy. Only 25% of Dems think so, but 69% of independents give Obama some blame … apparently, blaming Bush, tsunamis, Arab Springs, etc. is running out of steam.
Americans say Feds waste 51 cents of every dollar spent … I’m betting the over.
September 22, 2011OK, this poll cuts to the chase.
This is why many folks – me included – resist tax increases (oops, I mean ‘revenue increases’) … because there’s enough wasted money to pay for everything the gov’t needs to do … including debt reduction.
Interesting note: even liberal Dems who push hard for tax increases think that at least 45 cents of every dollar are wasted. … yet, they keep pushing for tax increases.
Huh?
According to Gallup:
Americans estimate that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every dollar it spends, a new high in a Gallup question first asked in 1979.
I guess O’s big tree fell in the woods …
September 16, 2011No surprise, but the President’s Son-of-Stimulus plan seems to have fallen on deaf ears.
According to Gallup, after a week of selling the plan, Obama’s approval rating is back below the 40% political Mendoza line …
I guess the attempted political coup of serving up a plan that stood no chance of being passed didn’t fool folks.
Hot surprised …
It ain’t just the Tea Party …
September 13, 2011Punch line: Obama performance is now approved by about 1 in 3 whites and only 1 in 2 Hispanics … still holding strong with blacks.
According to Gallup …
“President Barack Obama earned the lowest monthly job approval rating of his presidency to date in August, with 41% of U.S. adults approving of his overall job performance, down from 44% in July.
He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).
Note: All data is pre-jobs speech.
Hardest hit: 1 in 5 black males now unemployed…
September 8, 2011Punch line: In August, the unemployment rate for blacks surged to 16.7% in August, its highest rate since 1984; unemployment rate for whites fell slightly to 8%.
Black men have it the worst, with joblessness at a staggeringly high 19.1%, compared to 14.5% for black women.
Black unemployment has been roughly double that of whites since the government started tracking the figures in 1972.
Economists blame a variety of factors:
- The black workforce is younger than the white workforce
- Fewer numbers of blacks get a college degree
- Many blacks live in areas of the country that were harder hit by the recession
But even excluding those factors, blacks still are hit with higher joblessness.
“Even when you compare black and white workers, same age range, same education, you still see pretty significant gaps in unemployment rates suggesting that racial discrimination in the labor market continues to play a role.”
* * * * * *
And according to Gallup, 83% of blacks approve of the job that Obama is doing as President …
"Don’t touch that dial!" … what dial?
August 30, 2011Once in class I made reference to “the TV’s fine-tuning knob”.
Students looked at me like I was, well, pretty old.
Glad to see that a variant of the cliché made Beloit College’s Class of 2015 “Mindset List” which gives a snapshot of the world view of the incoming freshmen class.
Note: Most students entering college for the first time this fall — members of the Class of 2015 — were born in 1993.
Here are more of my favorites:
1. There has always been an Internet ramp onto the information highway.
4. The only significant labor disputes in their lifetimes have been in major league sports.
9. “Don’t touch that dial!” . what dial?
10. American tax forms have always been available in Spanish.
12. Amazon has never been just a river in South America.
15. O.J. Simpson has always been looking for the killers of Nicole Simpson and Ronald Goldman.
24. “Yadda, yadda, yadda” has always come in handy to make long stories short.
28. Jimmy Carter has always been a smiling elderly man who shows up on TV to promote fair elections and disaster relief.
30. Dial-up is soooooooooo last century!
33. Faux Christmas trees have always outsold real ones.
34. They’ve always been able to dismiss boring old ideas with “been there, done that, gotten the T-shirt.”
37. Music has always been available via free downloads.
38. Grown-ups have always been arguing about health care policy.
39. Moderate amounts of red wine and baby aspirin have always been thought good for the heart.
48. While they’ve been playing outside, their parents have always worried about nasty new bugs borne by birds and mosquitoes.
57. They’ve often broken up with their significant others via texting, Facebook, or MySpace.
61. Major League Baseball has never had fewer than three divisions and never lacked a wild-card entry in the playoffs.
64. Altar girls have never been a big deal.
71. Refugees and prisoners have always been housed by the U.S. government at Guantanamo.
Down to 38 … what, me worry?
August 24, 2011Lost among the news about Libya and the east coast earthquake …
Yesterday, President Obama’s approval rate dropped to a new low … now. Gallup says that only 38% approve of the job he’s doing.
Fortunately, the drop didn’t phase the vacationer-in-chief … though, it was reported that the earthquake was felt in Martha’s Vineyard and almost jiggled the President’s ice cream out of its cone.
“Let them eat ice cream …”
Barry drops below the Mendoza line … approval below 40%
August 14, 2011Geex, what a way to start a vacation.
Just before leaving for his midwest bus trip and Cape Cod, the President gets some new survey results from Gallup: Only 39% approve of the job he’s doing as president.
In baseball, the Medoza line (i.e. the line between poor and bad performance) is a batting average of .200.
I think it’s fair to say that 40% is the presidential approval equivalent.
Note: the score comes from left-leaning Gallup, not right-leaning Rasmussen.
Down 10 !
August 9, 2011From the most recent CNN Poll ,,,
Obama’s approval rating has slid 10 points to 44%
Only 1 in 3 approve of his handling of the economy … down 20 points from high water mark.
Ken’s Take: Don’t you wonder who those 1 in 3 are?
“80% of Americans agree that taxes should be raised” … say, what?
July 18, 2011Seriously, now.
To be technically precise, Pres. Obama said that “80% of Americans favor a ‘balanced’ approach” to attacking the deficit-debt problem.
For Obama, “balanced” means tax hikes.
Problem: data doesn’t seem to support the case.
According to the latest Rasmussen survey “55% Oppose Tax Hike In Debt Ceiling Deal”.
- Most voters oppose including tax hikes in the deal.
Just 34% think a tax hike should be included in any legislation to raise the debt ceiling; 55% disagree and say it should not.
- There is a huge partisan divide on the question. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats want a tax hike in the deal while 82% of Republicans do not.
- Among those not affiliated with either major political party, 35% favor a tax hike and 51% are opposed.
- Even those who earn less than $75,000 a year are opposed to including tax hikes.
Where’s the rub?
“By a 59% to19% margin, Political Class voters favor a tax hike in the debt ceiling deal.
By a 68% to 22% margin, Mainstream voters oppose tax hike in the debt ceiling deal.”
* * * * *
Ken’s Take: I still want to see the survey that asks “Do you favor the gov’t raising YOUR taxes to reduce the national debt?”
If 80% is the over/under, I’ll bet the ranch on the under.
If you’re a non-white Liberal man who lives on the west coast and didn’t attend college …
June 16, 2011… you’re more likely than average to have lost your job in the past year.
Last week’s CNN-Opinion Research Poll, asked folks if they lost their job in the past 12 months.
Overall,18% of the sample said they lost their job in the past 12 months.
Some interesting numbers from the ‘internals’:
- 21% of men lost their jobs, 15% of women
- 26% of non-whites lost their jobs, 14% of whites
- 21% who didn’t attend college lost their jobs, 16% who attended college
- 25% of self-identified Liberals lost their jobs, 17% of Conservatives, 14% of Moderates
- 25% of folks living in the West lost their jobs, 19% of Southerners, 14% of Northeasters, 11% of Midwesterners
Draw your own conclusions …
What do men, low earners, suburbanites and Republicans have in common?
June 10, 2011A majority of them disapprove of the job President Obama is doing.
Based on the most recent CNN-Opinion Research Poll, 48% approve of Obama’s job performance.
Some interesting numbers from the ‘internals’:
- 51% of women approve, 51% of men disapprove
- 61% of non-whites approve, 63% of whites disapprove
- 52% of folks making more than $50K approve, 50% making less than $50k disapprove
- 82% of Democrats approve, 83% of Republicans disapprove
- 57% of urbanitess approve, 52% of suburbanitess and rurals disapprove
In marketing, it’s called segmented appeal.
Draw your own conclusions …
O’s under water … again
June 8, 2011According to that bastion of right-wing thinking – the Washington Post – President Obama’s Bin Laden bounce is gone, his approval is ‘upside down’, and 6 of 10 people think things are on the wrong track …
* * * * *
70% of Americans support Libyan kinetic military action … oh, really?
March 31, 2011I’ve heard that spin quite a few times in the past week.
70 percent!
Think about it …
Do you think that 70% of the country knows whether Libya is a city, or a state, or a country, or a continent, or a planet?
I’ll take the under on that bet.
Do you think that 70% of the country knows where Libya is and how you spell it?
I’ll take the under on that one, too.
Do you think 70% of the country has the slightest idea what a kinetic military action is – and why we’re doing one in Libya?
Put me down for under on that one.
Yet, 70% are supporting the bombardment campaign.
70 per cent.
Oh, really?
Whatever happened to majority rule?
February 11, 2011Excluding one poll from the bastions of impartiality: the NY Times and CBS – all major polls are now reporting that a plurality of Americans want ObamaCare repealed … and about 1/2 of the polls report a majority of citizens want it repealed.
Doesn’t faze our Dem senators, though, who voted as a lemming-bloc against an amendment to repeal the law.
Who cares what the majority of citizens want …
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/repeal_of_health_care_law_favoroppose-1947.html
Uh-oh … O’s upside down again.
February 7, 2011President Obama’s job approval numbers are looking good … if you just look at the polls conducted by CNN, CBS, and NBC.
But, Gallup and Rasmussen are back to running counter to the mainstream media.
* * * * *
Gallup is now reporting that 45% approve and 47% disapprove … the bump from extending the Bush tax cuts seems to have faded.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
* * * * *
Rasmussen’s most recent Presidential Approval Index – which subtracts String Dis-approvers from Strong Approvers – is down to minus 17.
* * * * *
And, Gallup is reporting that President Barack Obama’s approval ratings during his second year in office were the most partisan and polarized of any president’s first two years of his presidency …
Nearly a 70-percentage-point gap in how Republicans and Democrats evaluated his performance.
Obama’s approval among Republicans averaged 13 percent, while Democrats’ approval of Obama’s second year averaged 81 percent.
* * * * *
Uh-oh …
Gimme a burger & some fries … hold the nutritional info
February 4, 2011A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds:
- Adults ages 30 to 39 and those who earn $60,000 to $75,000 per year are more likely to eat fast food than those in any other age and income demographic.
- 42% of American adults say they eat at fast food restaurants at least once a week
- 12% eat there two or three times every week
- 51% of Americans say eating at fast food restaurants is unhealthy,
* * * * * *
- Among those who eat fast food:
- 48% say they do so because it’s convenient
- 25% say it’s because the food is less expensive
- 16% say they eat fast food because they like it
- 50% consider nutritional content before ordering
* * * * *
Rasmussen Reports, Those Who Eat Fast Food, January 20, 2011
Obama’s post SOTU bounce …
February 1, 2011Oops.
While many polls show Obama’s approval rating going up since he extended the Bush tax cuts, according to Rasmussen, the President’s State of the Union Address pushed his approval numbers down.
Hard to believe that folks didn’t get excited over tax the oil companies, tax the rich … keep on spending on fast trains, solar panels, and whatever.
The Obama bandwagon … who’s jumping off? who’s staying on?
November 30, 2010Punch line: Many are jumping off, in some groups — by droves.
But, blacks and the intelligentsia remain fiercely loyal.
Unions weren’t a cross-tab category.
* * * * *
From the Washington Examiner ….
The coalition Obama led to victory in 2008 has frayed in just two years.
Start with voters who call themselves independents. Obama won 52 percent of them in 2008; now, according to Gallup, he is at 42 percent.
Next, women. In 2008, Obama won 56 percent of female voters. Today, he’s at 49 percent.
He is also down with men, from 49 percent in 2008 to 44 percent now.
Even younger voters, a key part of Obama’s coalition, are peeling away. In ’08, Obama won 66 percent of voters 18-29 years of age. Now, he’s at 58 percent.
Then there are white voters. In ’08, Obama won 43 percent of whites. Now, he’s at 37 percent.
He won 67 percent of Hispanic voters in 2008; now, he’s at 58 percent.
Even support among black voters, a bedrock for Obama, has ticked downward; after winning 95 percent of blacks in ’08, he’s now at 89 percent.
Just one group has stuck with Obama through it all. In ’08, he won 58 percent of people with graduate degrees. Now, he’s at 59 percent. It appears that academic types will be with Obama always.
Excerpted from the Washington Examiner, Obama’s poll numbers point to his defeat in 2012,11/26/10
http://washingtonexaminer.com/politics/2010/11/obamas-poll-numbers-point-his-defeat-2012
The Homa Files 